Pool C

[Bucket]

Williams plays Amherst... if they win that semi-final game that will for sure be a quality win?

You sure about this? I thought Middlebury was the 1 seed...

It's not that they won't lean as heavily on that equation, they're not allowed ot use it at all. So basically all criteria are independent of each other.

I'm also guessing some of those results vRRO will go away. Wesleyan and Colby are done. Regionally ranked below 8 to me shouldn't matter anyway. They're just getting ranked on volume and not merit at that point.

Middlebury has lost to Tufts twice now. And their only wins vRRO are likely to be Williams and Hamilton, vs. losses to Amherst, Swarthmore, Plattsburgh and, perhaps most crucially, Keene.

If Wesleyan falls out of the RR, Williams has even less to point to. Montclair is about it.

Though Endicott may now sneak into the regional rankings, which would be a win pickup for Middlebury.

[SaintPaulite]

Williams plays Amherst... if they win that semi-final game that will for sure be a quality win?

You sure about this? I thought Middlebury was the 1 seed...

It's not that they won't lean as heavily on that equation, they're not allowed ot use it at all. So basically all criteria are independent of each other.

I'm also guessing some of those results vRRO will go away. Wesleyan and Colby are done. Regionally ranked below 8 to me shouldn't matter anyway. They're just getting ranked on volume and not merit at that point.

Middlebury has lost to Tufts twice now. And their only wins vRRO are likely to be Williams and Hamilton, vs. losses to Amherst, Swarthmore, Plattsburgh and, perhaps most crucially, Keene.

If Wesleyan falls out of the RR, Williams has even less to point to. Montclair is about it.

Though Endicott may now sneak into the regional rankings, which would be a win pickup for Middlebury.

This is my point about these extra spots, and looking at "record vs. regionally ranked" in general. If they get in mostly by default because almost everyone else in the bottom of the regional rankings lost, does that really mean a lot?

I honestly have no idea who might sneak into the regional rankings there. I think it's pretty clear whoever does isn't going to be a real Pool C candidate.

This is why separate wins into tiers on a nationwide basis using something like Massey or a similar methodology makes more sense. We know all regions aren't made equal. Would Yeshiva or Montclair be regionally ranked in any of several other regions?

[Pat Coleman]

This is my point about these extra spots, and looking at "record vs. regionally ranked" in general. If they get in mostly by default because almost everyone else in the bottom of the regional rankings lost, does that really mean a lot?

The committee takes this into account already. A win vs. someone ranked 11th in a regional ranking is not as meaningful as a win against someone ranked, say, third, and that level of detail is already something the committee considers.

It's not "record vs. regionally ranked" -- rather, it's "results vs. regionally ranked" which is the criterion.

[cacfan11]

That's not reseeding. That's just saying the #1 seed plays the lowest seed.

... Which is exactly what the NESCAC is doing here.  Highest remaining seed plays the lowest remaining seed.

Where should the nescac tournament be held then? Middlebury, the number one seed, is out. Wouldnt it be natural for the next highest seed to host the tournament and play the lowest team remaining?
No, it's not.

There is no "highest remaining seed" It's *the* #1 seed. There's no ambiguity. It will always be the #1 seed and there will only ever be one #1 seed.

I don't understand what you are saying

What the NFL does (and the MIAC for that matter) is rewards the #1 seed for being better than the #2 seed. They both get byes, but the 1 seed gets the added reward of playing the presumably lesser team (though they may not actually be, because it's a long season, but the assumption is that it is).

None of this is contingent on other results, because there are no other results that affect them. There is never a reseeding.

Reseeding is "ok the 1 seed lost, so the 2 seed is the new 1 seed" (hence the term reseeding).

[SaintPaulite]

This is my point about these extra spots, and looking at "record vs. regionally ranked" in general. If they get in mostly by default because almost everyone else in the bottom of the regional rankings lost, does that really mean a lot?

The committee takes this into account already. A win vs. someone ranked 11th in a regional ranking is not as meaningful as a win against someone ranked, say, third, and that level of detail is already something the committee considers.

It's not "record vs. regionally ranked" -- rather, it's "results vs. regionally ranked" which is the criterion.

I agree and I hope that is actually how it happens. But even at that, 4th in one region might be completely different from 4th in another. I feel like there's a more data-sound approach than what they're using. They wouldn't have had a team go from 11 to 1 in one week if they were using a sound approach, tbh.

EDIT: The D1 methodology is on the NCAAs website. I find it to be pretty solid, even if the process itself is usually corrupt and biased toward the major conferences. We'll see how it goes this year with the NET, I guess.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

This is my point about these extra spots, and looking at "record vs. regionally ranked" in general. If they get in mostly by default because almost everyone else in the bottom of the regional rankings lost, does that really mean a lot?

The committee takes this into account already. A win vs. someone ranked 11th in a regional ranking is not as meaningful as a win against someone ranked, say, third, and that level of detail is already something the committee considers.

It's not "record vs. regionally ranked" -- rather, it's "results vs. regionally ranked" which is the criterion.

I agree and I hope that is actually how it happens. But even at that, 4th in one region might be completely different from 4th in another. I feel like there's a more data-sound approach than what they're using. They wouldn't have had a team go from 11 to 1 in one week if they were using a sound approach, tbh.

EDIT: The D1 methodology is on the NCAAs website. I find it to be pretty solid, even if the process itself is usually corrupt and biased toward the major conferences. We'll see how it goes this year with the NET, I guess.

They understand a 4 in one region is different than a 4 in another. They do take all of this into considerations and the committee members on the RACs are pretty frank about their regions. It isn't a 1-4 is A, 5-7 is B, 8-whatever is C. They do consider each set-up as they should.

And it is how it actually happens. Committees have been frank about this over the years and we have seen plenty of examples of it working this way.

The challenge on D1, by the way, is that the numbers allow it to have a more method approach (if I am saying that right). Because of the large number of teams able to travel around and play teams from all over the country, things in D1 like RPI and the like work better than they can in DIII (or even DII).

[jamtod]

I mean, I know it's just St. Paul and not Minneapolis, but why you gotta give one of the twin towns such a bad name?

As a St Paul resident and possibly a fan of the same D3 team, +k

[Gregory Sager]

That's not reseeding. That's just saying the #1 seed plays the lowest seed.

... Which is exactly what the NESCAC is doing here.  Highest remaining seed plays the lowest remaining seed.

No, it's not.

There is no "highest remaining seed" It's *the* #1 seed. There's no ambiguity. It will always be the #1 seed and there will only ever be one #1 seed.

I don't understand what you are saying

What SaintPaulite is saying is that he doesn't know the meaning of the phrase, "Quit while you're behind." 

Says the guy that threw a ****ing fit over an exclamation point earlier this year.

Rest assured that when we're talking about power programs out here, no one is talking about you all.

I'm not the one who insists that he knows all about the administration and athletic philosophy of a league in a different part of the country, thus giving him carte blanche to badmouth it, in the face of numerous people with firsthand knowledge of that league who are telling him otherwise. Then again, I'm not passing myself off as being both Minnesota nice and tough-but-fair, so what do I know?

[Gregory Sager]

Oh, and nescac1? You owe me one.

[SaintPaulite]

So, I actually did something relating to Pool C and tourney brackets yesterday.

I used Fantastic50's work (hat tip) and for Pool C selections I subbed in Wabash, North Central and Mount Union for ECSU, Salisbury and Gordon. I don't think those teams can sustain another loss, whereas the others have chances for quality wins without winning their tournament (so does Salisbury, but they have so many losses already).

I wanted to see if it's possible to head each pod with a top 16 team, even if that team is not the host, and maintain seed integrity (the top 16 teams as the best in their pods, 17-32 as second best, etc). And the answer is no, but you can come pretty close, probably closer than a lot of folks are thinking.

(EDIT to fix Amherst and MIT being in the same pod. Just dumb on my part. Also to fix the name of Pomona-Pitzer, because apparently that's the most important thing here. And some ordering and house cleaning.)

The only first weekend flights on here (unless I've screwed up) are Pomona-Pitzer and Whitman (assuming a Texas school hosts that pod). That plus the finals being in Fort Wayne should more than mitigate second-weekend flights.

Bottom line: if the committee wants to do it, it can likely be done. Worst case, St. John's wouldn't host, but the spirit of the bracket stays intact.

   1   2   3   4
1   Neb Wesleyan   LaCrosse   Northwestern   Webster
2   Whitman   Pomona-Pitzer   UT-Dallas*   Tx Lu
3   Oshkosh   North Central*   Hanover   
4   Augustana   Wabash   St. Norbert   
5   Randolph-Macon   Nichols   York   Baruch
6   St. John's   Wheaton   MSOE   
7   St. Thomas   Loras*   Trine   
8   CNU   La Roche   NJ City   
9   Amherst   Keene*   Oswego   UM-Farmington
10   Swarthmore   Middlebury   Scranton   Salem State
11   MIT   Williams   Rowan   Albertus Magnus
12   Wooster   Capital   Alfred   Gwynedd Mercy
13   Hamilton   Plattsburgh   N Eng Col   Yeshiva
14   Emory   Centre*   Maryville TN   St. Vincent
15   Marietta   Rochester   Arcadia   Morrisville St
16   Wittenberg   Mount Union   Skidmore   DeSales

Theoretical (even more theoretical) second weekends
at Swarthmore -- Whitman   CNU   Swarthmore   MIT
at NWU -- Neb Wesleyan   St. Thomas   Amherst   Emory
at Oshkosh -- Oshkosh   St. John's   Wooster   Wittenberg
at Randolph-Macon -- Augustana   Randolph-Macon   Hamilton   Marietta

[Titan Q]

Each Pool C year is a little different, but if you are wondering what general kind of numbers get you in...below are the Pool C selections for the last two seasons. (Note, there are 20 Pool Cs this year...not 21.)

(I can't confirm the order of these selection...just my best guess at the time.)

2017-18 Season
1. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.573/6-3 
2. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .778 (21-6)/.590/8-4   
3. UW-Platteville (CE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1   
4. Whitman (WE/NWC): .962 (25-1)/.515/4-1
5. Swarthmore (MA/CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4   
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2 
7. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).590/4-6   
8. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3
9. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.564/4-5   
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4   
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2 
12. Christopher Newport (MA/CAC): .777 (21-6)/.546/3-2   
13. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4   
14. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   
15. Albright (MA/Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
16. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4 
17. North Central (CE/CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.563/4-5   
18. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
19. Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2 
20. Brockport (E/SUNYAC): .731/.529/3-3
21. LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.511/2-2


2016-17 Season
1. Babson (NE/NEWMAC): .926/.574/4-1
2. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .731/.592/7-4   
3. Susquehanna (MA/LAND): .800/.556/4-4
4. UW-Whitewater (C/WIAC): .769/.567/3-5
5. Rochester (E/UAA): .840/.534/4-2
6. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .708/.598/5-5
7. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .769/.566/4-4
8. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .760/.560/4-3
9. Whitworth (W/NWC): .852/.544/0-3
10. Salisbury (MA/CAC): .741/.546/3-4
11. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .750/.533/5-4
12. Hope (GL/MIAA): .800/.525/2-1
13. Cabrini (AT/CSAC): .760/.531/2-3
14. Emory (S/UAA): .720/.547/2-3
15. Skidmore (E/LL): .731/.527/6-1
16. St. Lawrence (E/LL): .769/.526/3-5
17. Augustana (C/CCIW): .704/.542/2-2
18. Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/3-4
19. Endicott (NE/CCC): .786/.532/1-1
20. St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .731/.530/1-2
21. UW-Oshkosh: (C/WIAC): .630/.601/5-6


Current 2018-19 Numbers
* https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

* http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

[Gray Fox]

   1   2   3   4
2   Pitzer   Pomona-Pitzer

[SaintPaulite]

   1   2   3   4
2   Pitzer   Pomona-Pitzer

[lmitzel]

So, I actually did something relating to Pool C and tourney brackets yesterday.

I used Fantastic50's work (hat tip) and for Pool C selections I subbed in Wabash, North Central and Mount Union for ECSU, Salisbury and Gordon. I don't think those teams can sustain another loss, whereas the others have chances for quality wins without winning their tournament (so does Salisbury, but they have so many losses already).

I wanted to see if it's possible to head each pod with a top 16 team, even if that team is not the host, and maintain seed integrity (the top 16 teams as the best in their pods, 17-32 as second best, etc). And the answer is no, but you can come pretty close, probably closer than a lot of folks are thinking.

(EDIT to fix Amherst and MIT being in the same pod. Just dumb on my part. Also to fix the name of Pomona-Pitzer, because apparently that's the most important thing here. And some ordering and house cleaning.)

The only first weekend flights on here (unless I've screwed up) are Pomona-Pitzer and Whitman (assuming a Texas school hosts that pod). That plus the finals being in Fort Wayne should more than mitigate second-weekend flights.

Bottom line: if the committee wants to do it, it can likely be done. Worst case, St. John's wouldn't host, but the spirit of the bracket stays intact.

   1   2   3   4
1   Neb Wesleyan   LaCrosse   Northwestern   Webster
2   Whitman   Pomona-Pitzer   UT-Dallas*   Tx Lu
3   Oshkosh   North Central*   Hanover   
4   Augustana   Wabash   St. Norbert   
5   Randolph-Macon   Nichols   York   Baruch
6   St. John's   Wheaton   MSOE   
7   St. Thomas   Loras*   Trine   
8   CNU   La Roche   NJ City   
9   Amherst   Keene*   Oswego   UM-Farmington
10   Swarthmore   Middlebury   Scranton   Salem State
11   MIT   Williams   Rowan   Albertus Magnus
12   Wooster   Capital   Alfred   Gwynedd Mercy
13   Hamilton   Plattsburgh   N Eng Col   Yeshiva
14   Emory   Centre*   Maryville TN   St. Vincent
15   Marietta   Rochester   Arcadia   Morrisville St
16   Wittenberg   Mount Union   Skidmore   DeSales

Theoretical (even more theoretical) second weekends
at Swarthmore -- Whitman   CNU   Swarthmore   MIT
at NWU -- Neb Wesleyan   St. Thomas   Amherst   Emory
at Oshkosh -- Oshkosh   St. John's   Wooster   Wittenberg
at Randolph-Macon -- Augustana   Randolph-Macon   Hamilton   Marietta

I guess I do have a question here (quoted with the most recent edit as of time of my post): is this a work in progress? I just ask since there are a handful of pods that only have three teams instead of four.

Also, as a word of advice to help clean it up (I'm not trying to be snarky): "Insert table" is your friend.

[dunkin3117]

So, I actually did something relating to Pool C and tourney brackets yesterday.

I used Fantastic50's work (hat tip) and for Pool C selections I subbed in Wabash, North Central and Mount Union for ECSU, Salisbury and Gordon. I don't think those teams can sustain another loss, whereas the others have chances for quality wins without winning their tournament (so does Salisbury, but they have so many losses already).

I wanted to see if it's possible to head each pod with a top 16 team, even if that team is not the host, and maintain seed integrity (the top 16 teams as the best in their pods, 17-32 as second best, etc). And the answer is no, but you can come pretty close, probably closer than a lot of folks are thinking.

(EDIT to fix Amherst and MIT being in the same pod. Just dumb on my part. Also to fix the name of Pomona-Pitzer, because apparently that's the most important thing here. And some ordering and house cleaning.)

The only first weekend flights on here (unless I've screwed up) are Pomona-Pitzer and Whitman (assuming a Texas school hosts that pod). That plus the finals being in Fort Wayne should more than mitigate second-weekend flights.

Bottom line: if the committee wants to do it, it can likely be done. Worst case, St. John's wouldn't host, but the spirit of the bracket stays intact.

   1   2   3   4
1   Neb Wesleyan   LaCrosse   Northwestern   Webster
2   Whitman   Pomona-Pitzer   UT-Dallas*   Tx Lu
3   Oshkosh   North Central*   Hanover   
4   Augustana   Wabash   St. Norbert   
5   Randolph-Macon   Nichols   York   Baruch
6   St. John's   Wheaton   MSOE   
7   St. Thomas   Loras*   Trine   
8   CNU   La Roche   NJ City   
9   Amherst   Keene*   Oswego   UM-Farmington
10   Swarthmore   Middlebury   Scranton   Salem State
11   MIT   Williams   Rowan   Albertus Magnus
12   Wooster   Capital   Alfred   Gwynedd Mercy
13   Hamilton   Plattsburgh   N Eng Col   Yeshiva
14   Emory   Centre*   Maryville TN   St. Vincent
15   Marietta   Rochester   Arcadia   Morrisville St
16   Wittenberg   Mount Union   Skidmore   DeSales

Theoretical (even more theoretical) second weekends
at Swarthmore -- Whitman   CNU   Swarthmore   MIT
at NWU -- Neb Wesleyan   St. Thomas   Amherst   Emory
at Oshkosh -- Oshkosh   St. John's   Wooster   Wittenberg
at Randolph-Macon -- Augustana   Randolph-Macon   Hamilton   Marietta

St. Thomas, Amherst and potentally Oshkosh, will host the first weekend on the womens side, barring something crazy.  Meaning that the men could not host.