Pool C

kiltedbryan · January 21, 2007, 02:04:09 PM

In the NCAC, no more than 1 pool C bid would be expected. Wooster sits in complete command of the league at (15-2 overall , 8-0 conf.), and has already won at Wittenberg (14-3, 6-2) and at Ohio Wesleyan (11-6, 5-3).

In terms of the ever important regional record, Wooster is 10-1, Wittenberg sits at 9-3, and Ohio Wesleyan is a measly 8-5.

Wesleyan put up a strong effort against Wooster yesterday, and dismantled Wittenberg on Wednesday, but still must travel to both Witt and Woo. Those games would be virtual must-wins for Ohio Wesleyan to remain in contention for any pool C consideration, as they simply could not afford to lose those two coupled with a conference tourney loss for 7-8 in-region losses against maybe 14-16 wins.

Wittenberg didn't play very well against Ohio Wesleyan, and they have looked vulnerable during conference play- they could easily be 4-4 in conference instead of 6-2. They also have an injured player in their fourth-leading scorer Mark Caraway (6.9ppg), but I am unsure what the injury is and when/if he would be expected back. However, if Wittenberg won out, and especially if they won on the road at Wooster, they would have a regional record akin to 19-4 after the NCAC tournament and would be a decent pool C contender.

Wooster is certainly the favorite for the NCAC's pool A bid, and could hand Wittenberg and Ohio Wesleyan yet another in-region loss when those schools make the trip to Timken. However, senior center Tim Vandervaart, (14.3 ppg and 8.6 boards) may have broken his wrist in yesterday's game at Ohio Wesleyan. I haven't seen a detailed description yet of his injury, but it's clear Wooster will be without his services for awhile, as well.

If Wooster didn't win the NCAC tournament, they would be virtually assured a pool C bid unless the injury to Vandervaart causes them to lose several conference games. If Ohio Wesleyan slipped in and won the AQ bid, both Wittenberg and Wooster would be contenders for a pool C...and this is the only scenario where the NCAC could place three teams in the tournament.

David Collinge · January 21, 2007, 02:07:54 PM

Quote from: scotsbrod on January 21, 2007, 02:04:09 PMThey also have an injured player in their fourth-leading scorer Mark Caraway (6.9ppg), but I am unsure what the injury is and when/if he would be expected back.

Caraway reportedly tore his ACL and is done for the season.

Greek Tragedy · January 21, 2007, 02:08:29 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on January 21, 2007, 01:54:57 PM
http://www.d3hoops.com/faq.php?question=44

Thanks Pat.

Quote from: David Collinge on January 21, 2007, 02:02:32 PM
Quote from: Old School on January 21, 2007, 12:45:47 PMLa Crosse (can't remember if their Ohio Northern loss counts) [...]

http://www.d3hoops.com/school_info.php?year=2007&team=mens&school=UW-La+Crosse

Regional games are indicated by a little black dot. No little black dot next to ONU.

OK...and I guess the Great Lakes region doesn't border the West region either...though if you go by the upper UP, then it would, right?

Titan Q · January 21, 2007, 02:11:43 PM

Quote from: Old School on January 21, 2007, 01:47:49 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 21, 2007, 01:13:35 PM
OS,

With the new 'administrative regions' rule, Wheaton's loss to Whitworth IS in-region. So if they don't take the AQ, they would have a minimum of 5 in-region losses (and, realistically in the CCIW, actually at least 2-3 more). Their chance for a C is VERY iffy.

I haven't been keeping up on my D3 handbook recently, what is the administrative regions rule? Neutral spot and agreed upon in-region or something? I'm too lazy to look it up, sorry!

BTW, La Crosse got in as a Pool C with SEVEN in-region losses...and "only" 18 wins last year. I'm thinking 7 will get someone in again.

OS, with the new rule, any game between the CCIW and any team from the West region is "in-region."

Pat Coleman · January 21, 2007, 02:14:46 PM

Quote from: Old School on January 21, 2007, 02:08:29 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on January 21, 2007, 01:54:57 PM
http://www.d3hoops.com/faq.php?question=44

Thanks Pat.

Quote from: David Collinge on January 21, 2007, 02:02:32 PM
Quote from: Old School on January 21, 2007, 12:45:47 PMLa Crosse (can't remember if their Ohio Northern loss counts) [...]

http://www.d3hoops.com/school_info.php?year=2007&team=mens&school=UW-La+Crosse

Regional games are indicated by a little black dot. No little black dot next to ONU.

OK...and I guess the Great Lakes region doesn't border the West region either...though if you go by the upper UP, then it would, right?

Nothing in the FAQ I sent you says anything about regions that border.

Greek Tragedy · January 21, 2007, 02:17:26 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on January 21, 2007, 02:14:46 PM
Nothing in the FAQ I sent you says anything about regions that border.

Man, I'm lazy today! I thought there was something about something about a rule that might be something like that...or is that what the "administrative region" rule is? My laziness must have cost me a karma point! lol. BOOOO me. Hooray Pat!

Gregory Sager · January 22, 2007, 04:45:35 AM

Quote from: scotsbrod on January 21, 2007, 02:04:09 PMWesleyan put up a strong effort against Wooster yesterday, and dismantled Wittenberg on Wednesday, but still must travel to both Witt and Woo. Those games would be virtual must-wins for Ohio Wesleyan to remain in contention for any pool C consideration, as they simply could not afford to lose those two coupled with a conference tourney loss for 7-8 in-region losses against maybe 14-16 wins.

Why would Ohio Wesleyan want to get a Pool C bid and risk that perfect 5-0 record the Bishops have in the D3 tourney?

pabegg · January 22, 2007, 05:59:29 PM

My updates for this week on the unofficial regional rankings (games thru Sunday):

Reg Conf Rnk PrRk School Natl Status Reg Overall
NE 16 01 01 Amherst 002 A w C 16-0 17-0
NE 17 02 04 Worcester Polytech 008 A w C 12-1 14-1
NE 14 03 06 Salem State 010 A w C 12-2 12-2
NE 13 04 02 Keene State 013 A w C 12-2 14-2
NE 13 05 03 Rhode Island College 015 C 2 14-2 14-2
NE 16 06 07 Bates 017 C 3 13-2 14-2
NE 16 07 05 Trinity (Conn.) 020 C 5 11-2 14-2
NE 90 08 08 Brandeis 038 C 13 13-3 13-3
NE 15 09 09 Husson 054 A second 12-3 12-5
NE 14 10 12 Bridgewater State 055 C second 10-4 10-4
NE 16 11 13 Tufts 079 9-6 9-6
NE 11 12 11 Gordon 082 A other 8-4 11-4
NE 16 13 10 Middlebury 083 11-5 11-5
EA 90 01 03 New York University 022 C 6 13-2 14-2
EA 21 02 02 St. John Fisher 024 A w C 11-3 12-3
EA 24 03 04 St. Lawrence 026 A w C 12-3 13-3
EA 21 04 05 Utica 034 C 9 11-2 12-2
EA 90 05 01 Rochester 035 C 10 11-4 11-5
EA 23 06 08 Geneseo State 041 A bubble 10-3 11-4
EA 24 07 00 Vassar 056 C second 9-3 10-4
EA 23 08 07 Brockport State 059 C second 9-4 10-4
AT 32 01 01 Ramapo 004 A w C 12-1 13-3
AT 33 02 02 Manhattanville 033 A w C 10-4 12-4
AT 32 03 04 Rowan 045 C 17 9-3 13-3
AT 32 04 03 Rutgers-Newark 047 C 19 10-4 12-4
AT 33 05 05 SUNY-Farmingdale 049 C second 8-3 10-4
AT 32 06 06 Richard Stockton 050 C second 9-4 12-6
AT 33 07 00 Stevens 063 C third 11-4 11-4
AT 32 08 08 William Paterson 068 C third 12-5 12-6
MA 45 01 01 Johns Hopkins 011 A w C 14-1 15-2
MA 41 02 03 Hood 016 A w C 12-2 13-3
MA 43 02 07 Scranton 025 A w C 12-3 14-3
MA 42 04 04 Messiah 027 A w C 9-2 12-4
MA 41 05 02 Catholic 044 C 16 11-3 12-3
MA 41 06 06 Mary Washington 048 C second 10-3 11-4
MA 44 07 05 Alvernia 057 A second 10-1 11-3
MA 49 08 09 Lincoln 058 B 4 9-3 12-6
MA 43 09 08 DeSales 066 C third 10-3 12-4
MA 43 10 11 King's 071 C third 115 116
MA 45 11 00 Ursinus 074 C third 94 106
SO 51 01 02 Mississippi College 003 A w C 13-0 15-1
SO 53 02 03 Virginia Wesleyan 021 A w C 13-2 14-2
SO 54 03 04 DePauw 030 A w C 12-2 15-3
SO 53 04 01 Guilford 031 C 8 12-2 13-2
SO 51 05 06 Mary Hardin-Baylor 040 C 15 11-3 11-3
SO 52 06 07 Maryville (Tenn.) 043 B 2 13-3 13-4
SO 55 07 05 Averett 053 C second 9-3 11-5
SO 55 08 08 Greensboro 065 A third 10-3 12-4
SO 54 09 09 Centre 067 C third 83 143
SO 54 10 11 Millsaps 070 C third 9-3 11-6
SO 51 11 00 McMurry 081 94 106
GL 61 01 01 Lake Erie 005 A w C 12-0 15-1
GL 63 02 03 Wooster 023 A w C 10-1 15-2
GL 62 03 07 Hope 032 A w C 7-1 14-2
GL 64 04 09 John Carroll 046 C 18 10-4 11-6
GL 63 05 05 Wittenberg 051 C second 9-3 14-3
GL 65 06 06 Westminster (Pa.) 052 B 3 10-2 11-6
GL 64 07 04 Ohio Northern 061 A second 8-4 13-4
GL 90 08 02 Carnegie Mellon 062 C second 8-4 9-6
GL 64 09 08 Heidelberg 072 C third 10-5 11-6
MW 90 01 03 Washington U. 006 A w C 12-1 14-1
MW 71 02 04 Augustana 012 A w C 14-2 14-3
MW 73 03 01 Aurora 014 B 1 14-1 15-1
MW 71 04 02 Elmhurst 029 C 7 10-2 14-2
MW 90 05 06 Chicago 036 C 11 12-3 13-3
MW 72 06 09 Mt. St. Joseph 064 C third 9-4 9-7
MW 72 07 10 Defiance 069 A third 10-4 12-4
MW 71 08 00 Wheaton (Ill.) 076 7-4 11-5
MW 72 09 08 Transylvania 077 11-5 12-5
MW 72 10 07 Bluffton 090 85 135
MW 71 11 00 Carthage 095 74 115
WE 86 01 01 UW-Stevens Point 001 A w C 15-0 16-1
WE 82 02 02 St. John's 007 C 1 13-0 13-3
WE 84 03 06 Occidental 009 A w C 6-1 11-3
WE 83 04 04 Whitworth 018 A w C 13-1 16-1
WE 83 05 05 Puget Sound 019 C 4 11-1 14-2
WE 82 06 03 St. Thomas 028 A w C 14-2 14-2
WE 86 07 09 UW-Oshkosh 037 C 12 12-3 15-3
WE 84 08 00 Redlands 039 C 14 6-1 10-4
WE 81 09 10 Loras 042 A bubble 10-3 12-5
WE 84 10 08 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 060 C second 5-2 10-5
WE 86 11 00 UW-Platteville 073 C third 8-4 10-6

Reg Region
Conf Conference number
Rnk Regional ranking
PrRk Prior regional ranking
School
Natl National ranking based on regional results
Status
B + number: Pool B ranking (top 3 in tournament)
C + number: Pool C ranking of 19 teams in tournament
C second: second tier Pool C (spots 20-29)
C third: third tier Pool C (spots 30-39)
A w C: Pool A, in likely Pool C range (1 to 13)
A bubble: Pool A, in Pool C bubble range (14 to 19)
A second: Pool A, in second tier Pool C
A third: Pool A, in third tier Pool C
blank: lower level Pool C

My thoughts on this:

Today, 12-3 with an average schedule looks like the cutoff

Rochester has by far the most difficult schedule of the Pool C contenders to date.

Lake Erie and Alvernia have by far the easiest. Even with one loss, Alvernia wouldn't get a Pool C bid. Both may have to rely on winning their tournaments even with an exceptional record.

The UAA still looks strong for five bids.

gordonmann · January 22, 2007, 06:13:14 PM

This is interesting.

I'll be stunned if the UAA gets five bids, particularly in a rough conference where road trips turn into season-crushing 0-2 nightmares and one without a conference tournament to give Cinderella a last second chariot to the big dance.

ILive4This · January 26, 2007, 11:03:40 PM

not at all especially with the impressive out of conference play by all of the teams... wash u, chicago, nyu, rochester and brandeis 5/8 may be an impressive percentage but also a real possibility.

Pat Coleman · January 27, 2007, 12:46:52 AM

Actually, yes, that would be a surprise.

Greek Tragedy · January 27, 2007, 08:23:30 AM

Not to say I think they have a chance to get 5 teams in, which I don't think they will, but the UAA does have an advantage considering they are in different regions, meaning they don't have to wait for one UAA team to be picked before the next moves into their "chair"...there could be multiple UAA teams "on the table". Anyway, there are still EIGHT conference games remaining for each team, and 5th place Rochester already has five losses (I didn't bother checking to see how many were in-region, however). Brandeis has four losses, so there is a lot of beating up in conference play before the season ends and I see the UAA possibly getting two Pool C bids, along with the AQ.

pabegg · January 30, 2007, 05:38:04 PM

Rankings through 1/28

Reg Conf Rank School Natl Status Reg Overall
NE 16 01 01 Amherst 001 A w C 19-0 20-0
NE 17 02 02 Worcester Polytech 006 A w C 14-1 16-1
NE 14 03 03 Salem State 007 A w C 15-2 15-2
NE 13 04 05 Rhode Island College 011 A w C 16-2 16-2
NE 16 05 07 Trinity (Conn.) 020 C 3 12-3 16-3
NE 16 06 06 Bates 023 C 4 15-3 16-3
NE 13 07 04 Keene State 030 C 6 13-3 16-3
NE 90 08 08 Brandeis 047 C 18 13-5 13-5
NE 16 09 11 Tufts 052 C second 12-6 12-6
NE 15 10 09 Husson 053 A second 13-3 13-5
NE 14 11 10 Bridgewater State 056 C second 12-5 12-5
NE 14 12 00 Westfield State 088 11-5 13-6
NE 17 13 00 Babson 095 10-7 11-7
EA 21 01 04 Utica 022 A w C 14-2 15-2
EA 24 02 03 St. Lawrence 024 A w C 14-3 15-3
EA 90 03 05 Rochester 033 C 8 13-4 13-5
EA 21 04 02 St. John Fisher 038 C 12 13-4 14-4
EA 23 05 08 Brockport State 043 A bubble 12-4 13-4
EA 90 06 01 New York University 045 C 16 13-4 14-4
EA 23 07 06 Geneseo State 062 C second 11-5 12-6
EA 24 08 07 Vassar 066 C third 11-4 12-5
AT 32 01 01 Ramapo 010 A w C 14-2 15-4
AT 33 02 02 Manhattanville 039 A w C 12-4 14-4
AT 32 03 04 Rutgers-Newark 042 C 14 13-4 15-4
AT 33 04 07 Stevens 046 C 17 14-4 14-4
AT 32 05 06 Richard Stockton 064 C third 10-5 13-7
AT 32 06 08 William Paterson 072 C third 13-6 13-7
AT 32 07 00 New Jersey City 081 10-6 11-7
AT 31 08 00 York (N.Y.) 089 A other 12-5 13-8
MA 42 01 04 Messiah 013 A w C 11-2 14-4
MA 41 02 02 Hood 015 A w C 15-2 16-3
MA 43 03 03 Scranton 025 A w C 14-3 16-3
MA 45 04 01 Johns Hopkins 027 A w C 16-1 17-2
MA 44 05 07 Alvernia 035 A w C 13-1 14-3
MA 43 06 09 DeSales 041 C 13 12-3 14-4
MA 41 07 05 Catholic 048 C 19 13-4 14-4
MA 49 08 08 Lincoln 054 B 3 9-3 12-6
MA 45 09 11 Ursinus 055 C second 11-4 12-6
MA 43 10 10 King's 075 126 127
MA 41 11 06 Mary Washington 080 115 126
SO 51 01 01 Mississippi College 002 A w C 15-0 17-1
SO 54 02 03 DePauw 017 A w C 14-2 17-3
SO 53 03 02 Virginia Wesleyan 018 A w C 15-3 16-3
SO 51 04 05 Mary Hardin-Baylor 031 C 7 14-3 14-3
SO 52 05 06 Maryville (Tenn.) 032 B 2 15-3 15-4
SO 53 06 04 Guilford 037 C 11 13-3 14-3
SO 55 07 07 Averett 057 C second 10-4 12-6
SO 51 08 11 McMurry 059 C second 12-4 13-6
SO 54 09 09 Centre 063 C third 94 154
SO 54 10 10 Millsaps 065 C third 10-4 12-7
SO 55 11 08 Greensboro 067 A third 114 145
GL 61 01 01 Lake Erie 004 A w C 14-0 17-1
GL 63 02 02 Wooster 014 A w C 12-1 17-2
GL 62 03 03 Hope 021 A w C 9-1 16-2
GL 63 04 05 Wittenberg 044 C 15 11-3 16-3
GL 90 05 08 Carnegie Mellon 049 C second 10-4 11-6
GL 64 06 07 Ohio Northern 051 A second 10-4 15-4
GL 64 07 04 John Carroll 058 C second 11-5 12-7
GL 65 08 06 Westminster (Pa.) 060 B 4 11-3 12-7
GL 62 09 00 Tri-State 076 7-3 12-6
MW 90 01 01 Washington U. 005 A w C 14-1 16-1
MW 71 02 02 Augustana 008 A w C 16-2 16-3
MW 73 03 03 Aurora 016 B 1 16-1 17-1
MW 90 04 05 Chicago 019 C 2 14-3 15-3
MW 71 05 04 Elmhurst 036 C 10 11-3 15-3
MW 71 06 11 Carthage 061 C second 9-4 13-5
MW 72 07 06 Mt. St. Joseph 068 C third 10-5 10-8
MW 72 08 07 Defiance 073 A other 11-5 13-5
MW 72 09 00 Manchester 079 10-6 13-6
MW 72 10 09 Transylvania 082 126 136
MW 71 11 08 Wheaton (Ill.) 087 85 126
WE 86 01 01 UW-Stevens Point 003 A w C 15-1 16-2
WE 82 02 06 St. Thomas 009 A w C 17-2 17-2
WE 82 03 02 St. John's 012 C 1 15-1 15-4
WE 86 04 07 UW-Oshkosh 026 C 5 14-3 17-3
WE 84 05 09 Redlands 028 A w C 8-1 12-4
WE 83 06 04 Whitworth 029 A w C 14-2 17-2
WE 84 07 03 Occidental 034 C 9 7-2 12-4
WE 81 08 08 Loras 040 A w C 11-3 13-5
WE 83 09 05 Puget Sound 050 C second 11-3 14-4
WE 86 10 00 UW-La Crosse 070 C third 11-5 13-6
WE 81 11 00 Coe 071 C third 11-5 13-5

Reg Region
Conf Conference number
Rank Regional ranking
Prior Prior regional ranking
School
Natl National ranking based on regional results
Status
B + number: Pool B ranking (top 3 in tournament)
C + number: Pool C ranking of 19 teams in tournament
C second: second tier Pool C (spots 20-29)
C third: third tier Pool C (spots 30-39)
A w C: Pool A, in likely Pool C range (1 to 13)
A bubble: Pool A, in Pool C bubble range (14 to 19)
A second: Pool A, in second tier Pool C
A third: Pool A, in third tier Pool C
blank: lower level Pool C

A good week for Utica and Messsiah, who take over as #1 in their regions.

Puget Sound nosedives from the #4 C to out of the tournament.

One note on the Pool C: even though I show 19 Pool C teams, ending with Catholic this week, there are likely to be about 6 spots that will have to go to conference leaders who are beaten by teams that wouldn't get a Pool C otherwise. So the real Pool C cutoff would be after C 13, in my estimate.

Greek Tragedy · January 30, 2007, 05:42:21 PM

Nice work, interesting stuff.

pabegg · January 30, 2007, 05:58:59 PM

As a follow-up to my "estimated NCAA rankings," I put together a tournament bracket from them, with some interesting results.

Most notably, Whitworth and Mary Hardin Baylor are complete orphans, not within 500 miles of anyone.

I've got Redlands and Occidental in, for an obvious first round pairing.

Mississippi College hosts with only one school (Maryville) within the 500 miles.

Here's my solution: send the California survivor to St. Louis to play WashU, send Whitworth and MHB to St. Thomas' regional (only plane flight without a drive since other hosts are UWSP, DePauw, Augustana), and fly the winner of an opener between Guilford and Greensboro to Mississippi (leaving Maryville to drive to DePauw).

That's only four flights, and gives byes to WashU and MissC, two of my top teams.

Also, Lake Erie will have to host some upstate New York teams since neither South region host is from the east coast (MissC and DePauw).