Pool C

[Titan Q]

Curious for your reasoning to place IWU 2 spots ahead of UW-Stevens Point.  Same record, SP with far greater SoS and more wins vs. regionally ranked teams.

The bottom of the Central is very, very messy and confusing.  So many good teams with fairly even resumes.  However someone wants to order all of that, it's hard to say it's wrong.  I may or may not have it right...who knows.

As I was working through all of that, I decided, 1) IWU should be ranked ahead of Augustana due to IWU's win at Augie, and 2) Augustana should be ranked ahead of UW-Stevens Point (due to Augie's win at UWSP).  So I came up with that order of: IWU, Augustana, UWSP.

Regarding IWU vs UWSP, said another way, I used the "results vs common opponents" criterion.  Illinois Wesleyan won at Augustana.  And UW-Stevens Point lost at home to Augustana. 

[79jaybird]

Of the EC and NC games left- 

ELMHURST  CAR  @NC  @IWU  MU  CC   
I think Elmhurst will win 4 of these 5

NC      ELM  @AUGIE  @CC  CAR  @WC
I think NC wins 3/4 of these 5 .

I bet EC/NC share the title, which makes (from a Jays perspective) Saturday a very important game.

Question-  If EC/NC tie and they split the regular season, what's the next tiebreaker? 

[Baldini]

My latest Pool C projections follow (through Sunday 2/2 games).  All data is courtesy of Matt Snyder -- https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

First my mock regional rankings...

West
A – Nebraska Wesleyan (W/ARC): .900/.563/3-1
C – St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .895/.545/4-2
A – St. John's (W/MIAC): .950/.477/2-1
A – Whitman (W/NWC): .778/.509/1-2
C – Whitworth (W/NWC): .789/.538/2-3
C – Buena Vista (W/ARC): .778/.524/0-2
C – Augsburg (W/MIAC): .737/.520/0-4
C – Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (W/SCIAC): .833/.476/0-1

Much like the discussion we had about Witt a week or two ago, this may really come into play in a couple weeks if we see the Johnnies trip up in the conf tourney. SJU is without a doubt a great team, losing only to NWU on a neutral court without their top scorer (best player? Maybe?), but the chances of them missing the tourney are much higher than most think right now, unfortunately.

KnightSlappy, what do you have them proj for final SOS?

He has them projected at 0.498 for a final SOS.

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

Not sure why that address is not linking.

[Titan Q]

Much like the discussion we had about Witt a week or two ago, this may really come into play in a couple weeks if we see the Johnnies trip up in the conf tourney. SJU is without a doubt a great team, losing only to NWU on a neutral court without their top scorer (best player? Maybe?), but the chances of them missing the tourney are much higher than most think right now, unfortunately.

St. John's is a very interesting case for sure due to that SOS figure.

I think if they sweep St. Thomas (the 2/15 game is at St. John's), they could be selected as a Pool C with a sub-.500 SOS.  St. Thomas will be one of the highest seeded teams in the tournament (if they keep rolling), and I just feel like those 2 wins plus the gaudy WP would get them in.

[lmitzel]

Of the EC and NC games left- 

ELMHURST  CAR  @NC  @IWU  MU  CC   
I think Elmhurst will win 4 of these 5

NC      ELM  @AUGIE  @CC  CAR  @WC
I think NC wins 3/4 of these 5 .

I bet EC/NC share the title, which makes (from a Jays perspective) Saturday a very important game.

Question-  If EC/NC tie and they split the regular season, what's the next tiebreaker?

From there, it's results against the third place team, on down the list until the tie gets broken. The way things stand right now, besides the upcoming game on Saturday, NCC's second date with Augie and Elmhurst's second date with IWU are critical, since NCC split with IWU and Elmhurst split with Augie, and it depends then too how Augie/IWU finish.

[AO]

Much like the discussion we had about Witt a week or two ago, this may really come into play in a couple weeks if we see the Johnnies trip up in the conf tourney. SJU is without a doubt a great team, losing only to NWU on a neutral court without their top scorer (best player? Maybe?), but the chances of them missing the tourney are much higher than most think right now, unfortunately.

St. John's is a very interesting case for sure due to that SOS figure.

I think if they sweep St. Thomas (the 2/15 game is at St. John's), they could be selected as a Pool C with a sub-.500 SOS.  St. Thomas will be one of the highest seeded teams in the tournament (if they keep rolling), and I just feel like those 2 wins plus the gaudy WP would get them in.

If they did somehow leave the Johnnies out, that might finally be the wake up call the NCAA needs to fix the home/away multiplier.  If the Johnnies played Willamette and Morris at home instead of on the road, they'd have about 20 less losses in their SoS calculation.

[sac]

The home/away multiplier is used the way it is across multiple sports, SJU being left out would simply result in a shrug of shoulders.

[AO]

The home/away multiplier is used the way it is across multiple sports, SJU being left out would simply result in a shrug of shoulders.

Probably because most people don't realize how broken it is.  Applying the multiplier to a bad opponent has the opposite effect of what is intended (road games lower your SoS), and applying it to a .500 team does nothing. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The home/away multiplier is used the way it is across multiple sports, SJU being left out would simply result in a shrug of shoulders.

Probably because most people don't realize how broken it is.  Applying the multiplier to a bad opponent has the opposite effect of what is intended (road games lower your SoS), and applying it to a .500 team does nothing.

Wouldn't one agree then that the bad opponent shouldn't be scheduled, outside of conference?

[AO]

The home/away multiplier is used the way it is across multiple sports, SJU being left out would simply result in a shrug of shoulders.

Probably because most people don't realize how broken it is.  Applying the multiplier to a bad opponent has the opposite effect of what is intended (road games lower your SoS), and applying it to a .500 team does nothing.

Wouldn't one agree then that the bad opponent shouldn't be scheduled, outside of conference?

The broken multiplier doesn't just apply to 0-25 teams.  If you play a solid team from a very good conference but they might be just under .500 this year the multiplier will hurt you if you play them on the road compared to playing them at home.   

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

My point being ... it is always better to play better opponents than to play ones that just pad the WL numbers. That's been proven out for awhile.

Granted, I wish it wasn't as strong in that side of the equation and it might start sliding away from the SOS strength, but it is still better to have a better schedule than cupcakes.

[smedindy]

The issue really isn't the multiplier. If they lost the auto bid then it's really Marian, Willamette, Morris, and a MIAC where 7 of the 11 teams could wind up at .500 or below.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The issue really isn't the multiplier. If they lost the auto bid then it's really Marian, Willamette, Morris, and a MIAC where 7 of the 11 teams could wind up at .500 or below.

Well to really dive in ... it's the fact the MIAC men won't take on the same strategy the MIAC women have used in having an unbalanced conference schedule. Only allowing five non-conference games is brutal when one is trying to bolster their SOS and other numbers (vRRO for example).

The ASC and others have the same problem. Head-in-the-sand attitudes from some of their members (majority, unfortunately) is hurting these conferences and will continue to hurt them until those who rather be lazy are the minority.

[KnightSlappy]

My point being ... it is always better to play better opponents than to play ones that just pad the WL numbers. That's been proven out for awhile.

Granted, I wish it wasn't as strong in that side of the equation and it might start sliding away from the SOS strength, but it is still better to have a better schedule than cupcakes.

This is actually not quite true given the SOS calc / HAM implementation. It could be better for your SOS to play a slightly *worse* team at home than to play a slightly better (though still under-.500) team on the road.

But the general point of "schedule good teams and you don't have to worry about it" is probably fairly accurate. Mostly. Things sometimes happen and scheduling UW-Whitewater turns into a bad game to play for your SOS.

[AO]

My point being ... it is always better to play better opponents than to play ones that just pad the WL numbers. That's been proven out for awhile.

Granted, I wish it wasn't as strong in that side of the equation and it might start sliding away from the SOS strength, but it is still better to have a better schedule than cupcakes.

St. John's has 5 non-conference games, didn't play any of them at home.  Played Nebraska Wesleyan on a neutral court and at 14-5 Linfield.  The other 3 teams are having one of their worst seasons in the last decade, but it still wouldn't look nearly as bad to the NCAA if they had played those 3 games at home instead of on the road.