Pool C

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · January 30, 2007, 06:01:56 PM

Isn't it a bit early to be doing bracket projections? I didn't know Joe Lunardi had expanded to d3.

Ralph Turner · January 30, 2007, 06:30:37 PM

I have another thought about the Redlands regional. The two orphans can be flown anywhere.

In the next round, the winner must be flown somewhere (to a sectional).

The NCAA tries (I wonder if that is too strong of a verb.

8) ) not to pair conference members in the first round.

Therefore the Redlands ~~sectional~~ regional!

Whitworth (the NWC Pool A) vs Oxy
Redlands hosting UMHB. (UMHB (Texas) is located in Adminstrative Region #4, along with the states of California and Washington.)

Winner comes back to Wisconsin or to Mississippi, etc.

diehardfan · January 30, 2007, 07:42:40 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on January 30, 2007, 06:30:37 PMTherefore the Redlands sectional!

Whitworth (the NWC Pool A) vs Oxy
Redlands hosting UMHB. (UMHB (Texas) is located in Adminstrative Region #4, along with the states of California and Washington.)

Winner comes back to Wisconsin or to Mississippi, etc.

Woo! The closest school to my house gets a hosting nod. That would be just about the coolest thing ever to happen ever! (kidding obviously)

But of course, I agree that it's waaay too early. We will know more when the regional rankings come out.... very soon! Then we can speculate everything to death appropriately.

Gregory Sager · January 31, 2007, 04:20:11 AM

Quote from: diehardfan on January 30, 2007, 07:42:40 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on January 30, 2007, 06:30:37 PMTherefore the Redlands sectional!

Whitworth (the NWC Pool A) vs Oxy
Redlands hosting UMHB. (UMHB (Texas) is located in Adminstrative Region #4, along with the states of California and Washington.)

Winner comes back to Wisconsin or to Mississippi, etc.
Woo! The closest school to my house gets a hosting nod. That would be just about the coolest thing ever to happen ever! (kidding obviously)

Plus, you'd get to watch a team that's from a school named after a girl! Selection Sunday would mean cartwheels and somersaults at Casa de April!

diehardfan · January 31, 2007, 01:14:41 PM

Quote from: Gregory Sager on January 31, 2007, 04:20:11 AM
Plus, you'd get to watch a team that's from a school named after a girl! Selection Sunday would mean cartwheels and somersaults at Casa de April!

Wouldn't it be Casa de Abril?

Hmm... I think all these government meetings on US-Mexico border stuff for work are going to my head.

And lets face it, I'd be a lot more excited about Wheaton getting flown out here than a random team from Texas.

Gray Fox · January 31, 2007, 04:27:11 PM

Quote from: diehardfan on January 31, 2007, 01:14:41 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on January 31, 2007, 04:20:11 AM
Plus, you'd get to watch a team that's from a school named after a girl! Selection Sunday would mean cartwheels and somersaults at Casa de April!
Wouldn't it be Casa de Abril? Hmm... I think all these government meetings on US-Mexico border stuff for work are going to my head.

And lets face it, I'd be a lot more excited about Wheaton getting flown out here than a random team from Texas.

Can we tweak this scenario a bit and get the random SCIAC team (Redlands or Oxy) to fly to Texas? 8)

diehardfan · January 31, 2007, 04:45:02 PM

No.

LOL!

kiltedbryan · February 03, 2007, 03:22:38 PM

I posted this on the NCAC board, but it really belongs here, too.

As Pat's Daily Dose from a few days ago noted, Woo-Witt carries some interesting Pool C implications, especially for Wittenberg's tourney hopes.

Best as I can figure, these are the relevant stats for both Woo and Witt, coming into the game:

Team, Regional Record (%), QoWI

Wooster: 13-1 (.929), 10.143
Wittenberg: 12-3 (.800), 9.400

After a Wittenberg win:

Wooster: 13-2 (.866), 9.867
Wittenberg: 13-3 (.813), 9.750

After a Wooster win:

Wooster: 14-1 (.933), 10.400
Wittenberg: 12-4 (.750), 9.250

The two teams pull more even if Wittenberg wins- both probably stay in the hunt for a Pool C. If Wooster wins again, though, Wittenberg's Pool C sheet starts looking pretty bad. They would have to pick up another loss in the conference tourney (to be a Pool C), for at least 5 in-region losses, and they would end up 0-3 or 0-4 against (likely) regionally-ranked opponents Wooster and Ohio Northern. Also, Witt doesn't have much left on the schedule to help their QoWI out, with (as of now) a 12-pt game vs. OWU and an 11-pointer at Allegheny countered by two home maximum 8-pt games against Hiram and Wabash.

Without a Wittenberg win tonight, they could end with an end-of-the-year line like this:

Wittenberg: 18-5, (.728), 9.391*

See last year's Daily Dose where they projected the Pool Cs, and you'll see that such a Pool C line would be very suspect to make a March appearance.

* This is approximate, but probably even generous. I gave Witt 10 QoWI pts. for the NCAC tourney game they would host (probably would be an 8pt. game), 12 for a semifinal on the road, and 7 for a loss to Wooster in the finals.

Ralph Turner · February 03, 2007, 04:26:45 PM

Quote from: scotsbrod on February 03, 2007, 03:22:38 PM
I posted this on the NCAC board, but it really belongs here, too.

As Pat's Daily Dose from a few days ago noted, Woo-Witt carries some interesting Pool C implications, especially for Wittenberg's tourney hopes.

Best as I can figure, these are the relevant stats for both Woo and Witt, coming into the game:

Team, Regional Record (%), QoWI

Wooster: 13-1 (.929), 10.143
Wittenberg: 12-3 (.800), 9.400

After a Wittenberg win:

Wooster: 13-2 (.866), 9.867
Wittenberg: 13-3 (.813), 9.750

After a Wooster win:

Wooster: 14-1 (.933), 10.400
Wittenberg: 12-4 (.750), 9.250

The two teams pull more even if Wittenberg wins- both probably stay in the hunt for a Pool C. If Wooster wins again, though, Wittenberg's Pool C sheet starts looking pretty bad. They would have to pick up another loss in the conference tourney (to be a Pool C), for at least 5 in-region losses, and they would end up 0-3 or 0-4 against (likely) regionally-ranked opponents Wooster and Ohio Northern. Also, Witt doesn't have much left on the schedule to help their QoWI out, with (as of now) a 12-pt game vs. OWU and an 11-pointer at Allegheny countered by two home maximum 8-pt games against Hiram and Wabash.

Without a Wittenberg win tonight, they could end with an end-of-the-year line like this:

Wittenberg: 18-5, (.728), 9.391*

See last year's Daily Dose where they projected the Pool Cs, and you'll see that such a Pool C line would be very suspect to make a March appearance.

* This is approximate, but probably even generous. I gave Witt 10 QoWI pts. for the NCAC tourney game they would host (probably would be an 8pt. game), 12 for a semifinal on the road, and 7 for a loss to Wooster in the finals.

One other trend that I have noticed (broad generalization here) is that the QOWI's of the opponents, especially around the thresholds (.667, .500 and .333), seem to deteriorate as they play more in-conference opponents and pick up those losses. In the NCAC, that would mean Kenyon and Earlham might drop below .333. I don't readily see any other teams migrating between (shall we use the physics term) quanta, unless it is Allegheny moving up to .500 by winning 3 of their last 5.

diehardfan · February 03, 2007, 08:15:53 PM

Pat, is d3hoops.com going to do QOWI calculatuions? I'm just wondering, cause I noticed that its already two weeks after they were posted last year per the front page of this board. And the regional rankings come out in only a few days....

Pat Coleman · February 03, 2007, 10:37:46 PM

Like the regional records, QOWI is dependent on game-day data and must be reprogrammed by the folks at D3Scoreboard.com.

pabegg · February 04, 2007, 10:43:47 PM

The rankings estimate updated for games through Sunday

Reg Conf Rank School Natl Status QOWI Reg Overall
NE 16 01 01 Amherst 001 A w C 11.7273 22-0 23-0
NE 17 02 02 Worcester Polytech 004 A w C 11.0588 15-2 17-2
NE 14 03 03 Salem State 006 A w C 10.7895 17-2 17-2
NE 13 04 04 Rhode Island College 015 A w C 10.6 17-3 17-3
NE 16 05 05 Trinity (Conn.) 019 C 2 10.5882 14-3 18-3
NE 16 06 06 Bates 031 C 7 10.25 16-4 17-4
NE 15 07 10 Husson 039 A w C 9.5789 16-3 16-5
NE 13 08 07 Keene State 041 C 12 10.0556 14-4 17-4
NE 90 09 08 Brandeis 052 C second 9.95 14-6 14-6
NE 14 10 11 Bridgewater State 063 C third 9.5 14-6 14-6
NE 11 11 00 Gordon 072 A third 9.1765 12-5 15-5
NE 16 12 09 Tufts 084 9.8571 13-8 13-8
NE 12 13 00 Western New England 089 A other 9.0476 14-7 14-7
EA 24 01 02 St. Lawrence 012 A w C 10.75 17-3 18-3
EA 21 02 01 Utica 023 A w C 10.1579 16-3 17-3
EA 90 03 06 New York University 027 C 5 10.3684 15-4 16-4
EA 23 04 05 Brockport State 028 A w C 10.3684 15-4 16-4
EA 90 05 03 Rochester 034 C 8 10.2632 15-4 15-5
EA 21 06 04 St. John Fisher 046 C 16 10 14-5 15-5
EA 23 07 00 Plattsburgh State 061 C second 9.3333 11-4 13-6
EA 24 08 00 Hamilton 074 C third 9.3125 11-5 14-5
AT 32 01 01 Ramapo 014 A w C 10.8889 15-3 16-5
AT 33 02 04 Stevens 037 A w C 10.0952 17-4 17-4
AT 32 03 05 Richard Stockton 048 C 17 10 12-5 15-7
AT 33 04 02 Manhattanville 049 C 18 9.8421 14-5 16-5
AT 32 05 03 Rutgers-Newark 060 C second 9.6 14-6 16-6
AT 32 06 00 Rowan 067 C third 9.5 11-5 16-5
AT 32 07 07 New Jersey City 068 C third 9.5789 13-6 14-7
AT 31 08 08 York (N.Y.) 071 A third 9 14-5 15-8
MA 45 01 04 Johns Hopkins 007 A w C 10.5789 18-1 19-2
MA 42 02 01 Messiah 026 A w C 10.3333 12-3 15-5
MA 41 03 07 Catholic 032 A w C 10.3158 15-4 16-4
MA 41 04 02 Hood 038 C 11 10.1053 15-4 16-5
MA 44 05 05 Alvernia 040 A w C 9.4706 15-2 16-4
MA 43 06 03 Scranton 044 A bubble 10.1053 14-5 16-5
MA 49 07 08 Lincoln 047 B 3 9.9231 10-3 13-7
MA 43 08 10 King's 053 C second 9.95 14-6 14-7
MA 45 09 09 Ursinus 055 C second 9.3889 14-4 15-6
MA 43 10 06 DeSales 062 C third 9.3333 135 156
MA 43 11 00 FDU-Florham 073 C third 9.5 126 156
SO 51 01 01 Mississippi College 008 A w C 10.5882 16-1 18-2
SO 53 02 03 Virginia Wesleyan 010 A w C 10.7619 18-3 19-3
SO 54 03 02 DePauw 021 A w C 10.4118 14-3 17-4
SO 53 04 06 Guilford 025 C 4 10.1111 15-3 16-3
SO 51 05 04 Mary Hardin-Baylor 029 C 6 9.95 17-3 17-3
SO 52 06 05 Maryville (Tenn.) 030 B 2 10 15-3 15-5
SO 55 07 07 Averett 054 C second 9.5 12-4 14-6
SO 51 08 08 McMurry 056 C second 9.3333 14-4 15-6
SO 54 09 09 Centre 058 C second 9.5714 104 164
SO 51 10 00 Texas-Dallas 080 8.7778 13-5 15-5
SO 55 11 11 Greensboro 081 A other 8.8235 125 156
GL 61 01 01 Lake Erie 003 A w C 10.75 16-0 20-1
GL 62 02 03 Hope 017 A w C 10.1818 10-1 17-2
GL 63 03 02 Wooster 022 A w C 10.1333 13-2 18-3
GL 63 04 04 Wittenberg 036 C 10 10 13-3 18-3
GL 64 05 07 John Carroll 050 C 19 9.9444 13-5 14-7
GL 64 06 06 Ohio Northern 059 A second 9.8125 11-5 16-5
GL 90 07 05 Carnegie Mellon 064 C third 9.5625 11-5 12-7
GL 65 08 08 Westminster (Pa.) 066 B 4 8.9333 12-3 14-7
GL 61 09 00 Penn State-Behrend 077 8.7895 14-5 15-5
MW 71 01 02 Augustana 009 A w C 10.8 17-3 17-4
MW 90 02 01 Washington U. 016 A w C 10.9412 14-3 16-3
MW 73 03 03 Aurora 018 B 1 10.2 18-2 19-2
MW 90 04 04 Chicago 020 C 3 10.9474 15-4 16-4
MW 71 05 05 Elmhurst 045 C 15 10 12-4 16-4
MW 71 06 11 Wheaton (Ill.) 057 C second 10 10-5 14-6
MW 72 07 00 Bluffton 065 A third 9.5625 11-5 16-5
MW 71 08 06 Carthage 070 C third 9.6 10-5 14-6
MW 74 09 00 Grinnell 079 A other 9.1579 13-6 14-6
MW 72 10 08 Defiance 082 9.1111 126 146
MW 72 11 09 Manchester 088 9.4706 116 146
WE 86 01 01 UW-Stevens Point 002 A w C 11.6667 17-1 18-2
WE 82 02 02 St. Thomas 005 A w C 10.7619 19-2 19-2
WE 82 03 03 St. John's 011 C 1 10.5556 16-2 16-5
WE 83 04 06 Whitworth 013 A w C 10.5 16-2 19-2
WE 84 05 07 Occidental 024 A w C 10.3636 9-2 14-4
WE 81 06 08 Loras 033 A w C 10.125 13-3 15-5
WE 86 07 04 UW-Oshkosh 035 C 9 10.1579 15-4 18-4
WE 84 08 05 Redlands 042 C 13 9.6364 9-2 13-5
WE 83 09 09 Puget Sound 043 C 14 9.6875 13-3 16-4
WE 81 10 11 Coe 051 C second 9.7778 13-5 15-5
WE 86 11 10 UW-La Crosse 069 C third 9.6667 12-6 14-7

Reg Region
Conf Conference number
Rank Regional ranking
Prior Prior regional ranking
School
Natl National ranking based on regional results
Status
B + number: Pool B ranking (top 3 in tournament)
C + number: Pool C ranking of 19 teams in tournament
C second: second tier Pool C (spots 20-29)
C third: third tier Pool C (spots 30-39)
A w C: Pool A, in likely Pool C range (1 to 13)
A bubble: Pool A, in Pool C bubble range (14 to 19)
A second: Pool A, in second tier Pool C
A third: Pool A, in third tier Pool C
blank: lower level Pool C

Big changes in the Mid-Atlantic, NYU jumps up in the East.

Let's see how the real rankings come out this week.

systemfan86 · February 05, 2007, 11:28:34 AM

Quote from: pabegg on February 04, 2007, 10:43:47 PM
The rankings estimate updated for games through Sunday

Reg Conf Rank School Natl Status QOWI Reg Overall
MW 71 01 02 Augustana 009 A w C 10.8 17-3 17-4
MW 90 02 01 Washington U. 016 A w C 10.9412 14-3 16-3
MW 73 03 03 Aurora 018 B 1 10.2 18-2 19-2
MW 90 04 04 Chicago 020 C 3 10.9474 15-4 16-4
MW 71 05 05 Elmhurst 045 C 15 10 12-4 16-4
MW 71 06 11 Wheaton (Ill.) 057 C second 10 10-5 14-6
MW 72 07 00 Bluffton 065 A third 9.5625 11-5 16-5
MW 71 08 06 Carthage 070 C third 9.6 10-5 14-6
MW 74 09 00 Grinnell 079 A other 9.1579 13-6 14-6
MW 72 10 08 Defiance 082 9.1111 126 146
MW 72 11 09 Manchester 088 9.4706 116 146
Reg Region
Conf Conference number
Rank Regional ranking
Prior Prior regional ranking
School
Natl National ranking based on regional results
Status
B + number: Pool B ranking (top 3 in tournament)
C + number: Pool C ranking of 19 teams in tournament
C second: second tier Pool C (spots 20-29)
C third: third tier Pool C (spots 30-39)
A w C: Pool A, in likely Pool C range (1 to 13)
A bubble: Pool A, in Pool C bubble range (14 to 19)
A second: Pool A, in second tier Pool C
A third: Pool A, in third tier Pool C
blank: lower level Pool C

Big changes in the Mid-Atlantic, NYU jumps up in the East.

Let's see how the real rankings come out this week.

Not sure how to decode this...I don't see anything here that projects the Class C number. Guess it's just better to wait.

Just realized I mispoke. I was actually thinking QOWI and that is there. Are Class C awarded by region or nationally. I seem to remember that it is regional, but I can't be sure.

RO_24 · February 05, 2007, 12:53:57 PM

Could the HCAC get 2 teams in this year?

I'm not all that certain how to read it, but was curious as to how close they were to getting two in.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 05, 2007, 01:15:28 PM

Quote from: RO_24 on February 05, 2007, 12:53:57 PM
Could the HCAC get 2 teams in this year? I'm not all that certain how to read it, but was curious as to how close they were to getting two in.

According to that ranking it would seem that there wasn't much shot of it.