Pool C

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Some stats from the conference tournaments...41 had a simple seeding, 2 had division seedings (NAC and USAC) so won't be included in this

• 25 conferences saw the top two seeds in the final with the one seed going 18-7.
  
• Winners by seed... 1 seed: 24x; 2 seed: 9x; 3 seed: 5x; 4 seed: AMCC; 5 seed: NACC; 6 seed: HCAC
• 9 conferences had no lower seed win a single game, the NJAC had the largest tournament with 9 games
• The NESCAC led the way with four upsets but helped by being one of the largest tournaments. The AMCC and LL both had 3 upsets in just five games.
• The only seeding matchup that the lower seed had a better record was 8 vs 5 which happened just once in the WIAC.
• Some seeding matchups were tied... 1 vs 6 went 1-1, 2 vs 5 went 1-1 and 3 vs 4 went 2-2.
• The lowest seed to win a game was 11th seed Bowdoin beating the 6 seed in the NESCAC. The lowest seed in any tournament was 13th seeded Dominican in the NACC
• The largest gap in seeding for an upset was 5. 11 seed Bowdoin over the 6 in the NESCAC 1st round, 7 seed Trinity (CT) over the 2 in the NESCAC quarterfinals, 7 seed Mount St Vincent over the 2 in the Sky quarterfinals, and 6 seed Franklin over the 1 in the HCAC final

[Greek Tragedy]

https://www.d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2022/projected-mens-bracket

Here's what the D3hoops guys think.

I'd like to know what Utica's numbers were. They were the last two taken. They show who was all at the table when Utica was taken, but don't show their numbers for comparison's sake.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

https://www.d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2022/projected-mens-bracket

Here's what the D3hoops guys think.

I'd like to know what Utica's numbers were. They were the last two taken. They show who was all at the table when Utica was taken, but don't show their numbers for comparison's sake.

Utica is .852, .506, 3-3

[D3RetiredHooper]

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3/regional-rankings-0

At the bottom of this page has updated SOS, RvRRO's and NCSOS numbers.  Utica now a .504.  It is a small change but could factor in with their already low SOS in regards to historical standards.

[deiscanton]

DeSales is a good pick for the 20th Pool C bid.

The Bulldogs defeated RROs both in and outside of their league, and all of their RROs all had OWPs ranked in the top 125 of DIII.

Winning percentage above .800 and non-conference SOS of .591 seals the deal.

I'm satisfied with DeSales in that slot.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

We're pretty sure Lycoming was ranked in the final rankings, which also boosted DeSales' resume.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Here's the order of the final rankings with their rank in the previous ranking (For instance Tufts was ranked 5th in the previous ranking in R1 but were passed by Trinity who had been ranked 6th).

Bold is Pool A
Regular is Pool C
Red was not selected
Changed rankings are bold and underlined

Region 1 (GNAC, MASCAC, NAC, NESCAC)       
1   Wesleyan    22-3   22-3
2   St. Joseph (Conn.)   22-1   23-1    
3   Williams   16-3   16-3
4   Middlebury   18-5   18-5
6   Trinity (Conn.)   16-8   16-8
5   Tufts   13-10   13-10
7   Amherst   15-9   15-9
9   Westfield State   20-4   20-4
8   Albertus Magnus   15-6   15-6

NR   Husson


Region 2 (CCC, LEC, NECC, NEWMAC, Brandeis)           
1   WPI   22-2   22-2
2   UMass Dartmouth   22-3   22-3
3   Nichols   22-3   22-3
4   Babson   18-6   18-6
5   Emerson   17-6   17-6
NR   Keene St

6   Brandeis   12-9   12-9
NR   Mitchell

           
Region 3 (E8, LL, Sky, SUNYAC, Rochester)           
4   Nazareth   21-4   21-4
1   Oswego   23-2   23-2
2   Rochester   16-7   16-7
3   RPI   21-4   21-4
5   Utica   22-3   22-3
6   St. John Fisher   19-6   19-6
8   Yeshiva   21-3   22-3
NR   Vassar

7   Ithaca   17-8   17-8


Region 4 (CUNYAC, MACF, NJAC, UEC, NYU)            
1   Stockton   21-4   21-4
3   Rowan   21-4   21-4
2   DeSales   21-4   21-4
4   Rutgers-Newark   16-8   16-8
7   Stevens   13-8   13-8
5   NYU   14-9   14-9
NR    Lycoming

6   Montclair St.   13-9   13-9
NR    Baruch
NR   Penn St-Harrisburg

           
Region 5 (AEC, CC, CSAC, Land, MACC)           
1   Swarthmore   21-4   21-4
3   Johns Hopkins   20-3   20-3
2   Eastern   19-4   19-5
4   Susquehanna   21-4   21-4
5   Hood   17-6   17-6
9   Neumann   16-7   18-7
6   Drew   17-8   17-8
7   Alvernia   17-6   18-6
8   Marymount   16-8   16-8

NR   Wilson

           
Region 6 (C2C, ODAC, SAA, USAC, Emory)           
1   Randolph-Macon   24-1   24-1
3   Emory   18-5   18-5
2   Christopher Newport   22-2   22-2
4   Guilford   17-6   17-6
5   Roanoke   17-8   17-8
7   Berry   20-2   21-2
6   Maryville (Tenn.)   17-3   20-3
8   Virginia Wesleyan   16-8   16-9

NR    Averett

           
Region 7 (AMCC, MIAA, NCAC, OAC, PAC, Case Western)           
1   Marietta   22-2   22-2
2   Mount Union   21-3   21-3
3   Wabash   21-3   21-3
6   Hope   18-5   19-6
4   Case Western Reserve   17-6   17-6
5   Heidelberg   17-6   17-6
7   Calvin   17-6   18-7
8   Otterbein   17-7   17-7
9   Trine   17-8   17-8
NR   Washington & Jefferson

10   Baldwin Wallace   14-9   14-9
NR   Medaille

           
Region 8 (CCIW, HCAC, NACC, SLIAC)           
1   Ill. Wesleyan   21-4   21-4
3   WashU   16-7   16-7
4   Elmhurst   19-6   19-6
2   Wheaton (IL)   20-5   20-5
5   Hanover   20-4   20-4
7   North Central (IL)   15-9   15-9
6   Rose-Hulman   15-9   15-9
8   Transylvania   15-8   16-8
NR   Anderson

9   Millikin   14-11   14-11
NR   Blackburn
NR   Franklin
NR   Marian

           
Region 9 (ARC, MIAC, MWC, UMAC, WIAC)           
1   UW-Oshkosh   20-3   20-3
2   UW-Platteville   20-4   20-4
3   UW-La Crosse   19-5   19-5
4   St. John's   20-4   20-4
6   UW-Whitewater   14-9   14-10
9   UW-Stout   16-9   16-9
7   Dubuque   19-6   19-6
5   UW-River Falls   14-9   14-9
8   Buena Vista   14-11   14-11

NR   Cornell
NR   Northwestern

           
Region 10 (ASC, NWC, SCAC, SCIAC)           
2   Pomona-Pitzer   16-3   17-4
1   Whitworth   20-4   20-4
3   Chapman   17-3   19-3
4   Mary Hardin-Baylor   20-2   22-2
5   Claremont-Mudd-Scripps   15-6   15-6
6   Cal Lutheran   16-7   16-7
7   Linfield   15-5   18-6
8   Pacific Lutheran   15-6   18-7

NR   Trinity (TX)

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

The only rankings that had a new team join were Regions 2, 3, 4, 7, and 8. Three of those (2, 3, 7) were teams winning their conference replacing a team who didn't. The other two (4 and 8) were teams who didn't win their conference replacing another team who didn't win their conference. Both seem like trying to give an extra nudge for a bubble team (worked for DeSales, not for Hanover)

All selected Pool C teams were already ahead of the non-selected teams in the previous rankings. (No one selected was previously behind a team that didn't get selected)

[Greek Tragedy]

https://www.d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2023/men-regional-rankings-alpha

1sr rankings are out...in alphabetical order.

[deiscanton]

https://www.d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2023/men-regional-rankings-alpha

1sr rankings are out...in alphabetical order.

No surprises in Region II-- I had Babson as the 6th regionally ranked team in the region this week, and it looks like if Keene State and WPI both win their respective conference tournaments, they may be no Pool C's coming out of that region.  West Conn Wolves could sit in the #3 position in Region II and block all other teams in that region from coming to the table.  Of course, this week is all alphabetical, but that is what I see at the moment.

[SpringSt7]

I know we are a couple weeks away from Selection Sunday Region II gives us an interesting glimpse into the committee's thought process.

Brandeis at 11-9 WP (.550) is way too low but SOS of .594 is sky high and using Matt Snyder's median SOS metric, #1 in the country. Meanwhile, Babson WP (.619) and SOS (.533) is regionally ranked. Plus Brandeis has 2 RROs and Babson has 0.

None of these teams are in any real Pool C contention but contrast that with WNE (.800/.499) and Western Conn (.909/.473) being regionally ranked and you do at least get the sense that they are at least leaning a little bit towards WP over SOS at this point in the season.

[deiscanton]

I know we are a couple weeks away from Selection Sunday Region II gives us an interesting glimpse into the committee's thought process.

Brandeis at 11-9 WP (.550) is way too low but SOS of .594 is sky high and using Matt Snyder's median SOS metric, #1 in the country. Meanwhile, Babson WP (.619) and SOS (.533) is regionally ranked. Plus Brandeis has 2 RROs and Babson has 0.

None of these teams are in any real Pool C contention but contrast that with WNE (.800/.499) and Western Conn (.909/.473) being regionally ranked and you do at least get the sense that they are at least leaning a little bit towards WP over SOS at this point in the season.

The two Brandeis RRO wins in home games vs NYU and Rochester do not figure into the equation until next week's regional rankings.  Also, Babson in this week's RRO list makes sense when you consider that Babson has a head to head win over Brandeis, and a better win/loss pct.  Brandeis has the better primary SOS.  Babson has 4 common opponents vs Brandeis this year (Lasell, Bates, Emerson, UChicago).   i would argue that the common opponents between the two teams is a wash.  (Emerson lost at both Babson and Brandeis.) Even if Brandeis's 1 point road win at UChicago gives the Judges an advantage in that category-- (a short-handed Babson lost at UChicago), Babson has a slightly higher non-conference SOS which would break the tie.

Also, Brandeis has 9 losses right now with 5 UAA games still left to play.  I don't think any team is getting a Pool C anymore with 9 losses.  The consensus right now is that UW-Oshkosh's off-the-charts Pool C bid at 17-10 a few years back was a huge mistake and a fluke that will never happen again.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Comparing to Snyder's rankings. Only 6 teams made the official rankings that weren't in his. The biggest outlier in his rankings is Marian in R8

Region 1
6) Hamilton   15-7   15-7
2) Middlebury   19-3   19-3
1) St. Joseph (Conn.)   22-0   22-0
7) Trinity (Conn.)   15-7   15-7
4) Tufts   16-4   16-5
5) Wesleyan    14-8   14-8
3) Williams   19-3   19-3

Region 2
9) Babson   13-8   13-8
1) Keene State   21-0   21-1
5) Nichols   16-5   16-5
3) Western Connecticut   19-2   19-2
4) Western New England   16-4   16-4
2) WPI   17-3    17-3
---
6) Brandeis, 7) Mitchell, 8) Emerson

Region 3
5) Cortland   16-6   16-6
7) Ithaca   14-6   14-6
4) Nazareth   17-4   17-4
2) Oswego State   20-2   20-2
1) Rochester   14-6   14-6
9) RPI   15-6   15-6
3) Utica   18-2   18-2
---
6) Brockport, 8) Alfred

Region 4
4) DeSales   18-4   18-4
6) Kean   16-6   16-6
7) Lancaster Bible   14-7   14-7
3) Montclair State   18-4   18-4
5) NYU   13-7   13-7
2) Rowan   19-3   19-3
1) Stockton   19-3   19-3

Region 5
4) Alvernia   16-6   16-6
3) Catholic   20-1   20-1
6) Eastern   14-7   14-7
2) Johns Hopkins   18-3   18-3
8) Scranton   14-7   14-7
1) Swarthmore   19-2   19-2
5) Widener   14-7   14-7
---
7) Susquehanna

Region 6
2) Christopher Newport   20-3   20-3
4) Emory   15-5   15-5
6) Guilford   18-4   18-4
3) Hampden-Sydney   18-4   18-4
7) Mary Washington   16-6   16-6
1) Randolph-Macon   21-1   21-1
8) Roanoke   17-5   17-5
---
5) Berry

Region 7
7) Calvin   17-3   18-3
4) Carnegie Mellon   14-6   14-6
3) Case Western Reserve   16-3   16-3
1) John Carroll   19-2   19-2
2) Mount Union   19-2   19-2
6) Wabash   17-4   17-5
5) Wooster   17-4   17-4

Region 8
5) Carthage   15-6   15-6
4) Elmhurst   15-6   15-6
16) Marian    11-9   11-9
3) North Park   15-5   16-5
2) Washington U.   16-4   16-4
1) Wheaton (Ill.)   19-3   19-3
6) Wisconsin Lutheran   15-6   15-6
---
7) Concordia-Chicago, 8) North Central, 9) Illinois Wesleyan

Region 9
5) Bethany Lutheran   17-3   18-3
3) Carleton   18-3   18-3
7) Central    14-5   14-6
4) Illinois College   19-2   19-2
2) UW-La Crosse   17-5   17-5
1) UW-Oshkosh   17-5   17-5
6) UW-Whitewater   16-6   16-6

Region 10
4) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps   17-3   18-3
6) East Texas Baptist   16-5   16-5
3) Mary Hardin-Baylor   17-4   17-4
2) Pomona-Pitzer   14-3   15-5
1) St. Thomas (Texas)   19-2   20-2
5) Texas-Dallas   16-3   17-3
9) Whitworth   14-7   14-7
---
7) Redlands, 8) Trinity (TX)

[SpringSt7]

I know we are a couple weeks away from Selection Sunday Region II gives us an interesting glimpse into the committee's thought process.

Brandeis at 11-9 WP (.550) is way too low but SOS of .594 is sky high and using Matt Snyder's median SOS metric, #1 in the country. Meanwhile, Babson WP (.619) and SOS (.533) is regionally ranked. Plus Brandeis has 2 RROs and Babson has 0.

None of these teams are in any real Pool C contention but contrast that with WNE (.800/.499) and Western Conn (.909/.473) being regionally ranked and you do at least get the sense that they are at least leaning a little bit towards WP over SOS at this point in the season.

The two Brandeis RRO wins in home games vs NYU and Rochester do not figure into the equation until next week's regional rankings.  Also, Babson in this week's RRO list makes sense when you consider that Babson has a head to head win over Brandeis, and a better win/loss pct.  Brandeis has the better primary SOS.  Babson has 4 common opponents vs Brandeis this year (Lasell, Bates, Emerson, UChicago).   i would argue that the common opponents between the two teams is a wash.  (Emerson lost at both Babson and Brandeis.) Even if Brandeis's 1 point road win at UChicago gives the Judges an advantage in that category-- (a short-handed Babson lost at UChicago), Babson has a slightly higher non-conference SOS which would break the tie.

Also, Brandeis has 9 losses right now with 5 UAA games still left to play.  I don't think any team is getting a Pool C anymore with 9 losses.  The consensus right now is that UW-Oshkosh's off-the-charts Pool C bid at 17-10 a few years back was a huge mistake and a fluke that will never happen again.

I'm not arguing for or against a Brandeis or Babson ranking. I'm just trying to point out that Region II might give us a little glimpse into how the committee is going to weigh their various selection criteria this year.

[Greek Tragedy]

I don't think Oshkosh making the field that year was a huge mistake. They lost in the 1st round to host Hope by just 2 points. I don't know remember everything about that year, but Hope must have been pretty good to host both the regionals and sectionals that year. Yeah, geography has some play in it as well, but still. Yeah, their SOS was off the charts, but I agree, a 10-loss team will probably never see a Pool C bid again.