Pool C

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

A reminder for everyone... another factor that is going to come into play is when the favorite of a conference that would easily get into the NCAA Tournament despite and AQ... doesn't win the AQ. That means more deserving teams are put into the Pool C mix and those teams who "need help" to get into the tournament are in more trouble.

Teams like UNE simply need to win-out, period. If UNE needs to rely on a Pool C bid because they couldn't get the job done in the CCC Tournament, they may end their season there. There are a lot of teams that could make an argument in Pool C and UNE's resume isn't going to stand up nearly as well as most.

[pabegg]

There's no way the CCC gets 2 bids with the UNE schedule.  It's just not possible.

I tend to agree with you, but you dont want to mess with the Joe Lunardi of d3.

Does the E8 get two bids if IC wins the conference? That puts RIT, at best, at 19-8. I know the east is down this season, but that's not the world's best record, especially if they close out something like 3-4. They would possibly have two wins over a Top 10 IC team, but the rest of the E8 seems pretty not special. How good can a 15-8 SJF team be if they are 7-7 in conference?

The E8 is really pretty easy. Ithaca is in the tournament. Anyone else will have to win the tournament.

This is in contrast to conferences where even the #1 team won't make the NCAAs if they don't win the conference tournament.

[pabegg]

I think what Patrick is saying is that there are some conference that will only get one bid, with nearly 100% certainty.  While there are other conferences like the CCC and E8 that are most likely going to only get 1 bid, but, even if it is 95% likely they would not get an at large, the conference is not "mathematically-eliminated" from getting an at large bid.  I think we have illustrated a few conferences that are very likely only to get one bid, but there are still some remote scenarios where it is conceivable they could get a second bid; for example, if the top regular season team's wins all their games except for the tourney final (and also gets help from other "safe" teams holding serve in their conference tourneys).

Exactly.

When you ask a statistican for analysis, you're always going to get both the "most likely" and "I can't rule it out" extremes. "Most likely" UNE has no chance for a Pool C bid, but "I can't rule it out."

Unlike, say, the GNAC, which has no chance of a Pool C bid.

[oldchap]

Here are the conferences with the top team
SCIAC - Claremont Mudd Scripps
<snip>

I have a question: currently, there are 4 teams vying for the Pool A AQ in the SCIAC. What would happen if a team other than CMS wins it? Does it mean that CMS would be eligible for a Pool C bid and what are their chances?

[David Collinge]

I have a question: currently, there are 4 teams vying for the Pool A AQ in the SCIAC. What would happen if a team other than CMS wins it? Does it mean that CMS would be eligible for a Pool C bid and what are their chances?

Every team that is eligible for the national tournament is eligible for a Pool C bid, except those that have already received bids via Pools A or B.

[Coach C]

I think what Patrick is saying is that there are some conference that will only get one bid, with nearly 100% certainty.  While there are other conferences like the CCC and E8 that are most likely going to only get 1 bid, but, even if it is 95% likely they would not get an at large, the conference is not "mathematically-eliminated" from getting an at large bid.  I think we have illustrated a few conferences that are very likely only to get one bid, but there are still some remote scenarios where it is conceivable they could get a second bid; for example, if the top regular season team's wins all their games except for the tourney final (and also gets help from other "safe" teams holding serve in their conference tourneys).

Exactly.

When you ask a statistican for analysis, you're always going to get both the "most likely" and "I can't rule it out" extremes. "Most likely" UNE has no chance for a Pool C bid, but "I can't rule it out."

Unlike, say, the GNAC, which has no chance of a Pool C bid.

Well - I'll go out on the limb Patrick is unwilling to.  If the CCC gets 2 bids, I will abstain from adult beverages in Salem.

[pabegg]

Here are the conferences with the top team
SCIAC - Claremont Mudd Scripps
<snip>

I have a question: currently, there are 4 teams vying for the Pool A AQ in the SCIAC. What would happen if a team other than CMS wins it? Does it mean that CMS would be eligible for a Pool C bid and what are their chances?

CMS would be eligible, but they have no chance (that was the point of the list originally, to list out conferences where there will be only the Pool A bid).

[John Gleich]

I have a question: currently, there are 4 teams vying for the Pool A AQ in the SCIAC. What would happen if a team other than CMS wins it? Does it mean that CMS would be eligible for a Pool C bid and what are their chances?

Every team that is eligible for the national tournament is eligible for a Pool C bid, except those that have already received bids via Pools A or B.

... But eligibility and likelihood are two completely different things...

In order to be considered for a Pool C bid, a team has to be the top available team up for a particular region.  This slotting of regional teams is shown in the regional rankings.  The final regional ranking isn't released, so we don't know what it really is... but it can be projected with tools like pabeggs lists.  Only CMS is listed here... and they are projected as a second tier Pool B team (selected numbers 19-28).  In other words, they likely are not going to get a Pool C pick because there are too many teams that are higher up than they are.  As it stands, they are pretty far down even in their own region...  they weren't even listed in the last regional rankings.  Another is scheduled to come out today, I believe... but even thouhh Stevens Point and Whitewater both lost, they were pretty far ahead of CMS... so CMS wont be able to catch them.

[John Gleich]

Here are the conferences with the top team
SCIAC - Claremont Mudd Scripps
<snip>

I have a question: currently, there are 4 teams vying for the Pool A AQ in the SCIAC. What would happen if a team other than CMS wins it? Does it mean that CMS would be eligible for a Pool C bid and what are their chances?

CMS would be eligible, but they have no chance (that was the point of the list originally, to list out conferences where there will be only the Pool A bid).

Brevity is not my strong suit... this answer works just as well... or possibly even better!

[KnightSlappy]

New Regional Rankings are out:

http://www.ncaa.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/ncaa/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/DIIIMBBRANKING2-18-09

[Hugenerd]

I think what Patrick is saying is that there are some conference that will only get one bid, with nearly 100% certainty.  While there are other conferences like the CCC and E8 that are most likely going to only get 1 bid, but, even if it is 95% likely they would not get an at large, the conference is not "mathematically-eliminated" from getting an at large bid.  I think we have illustrated a few conferences that are very likely only to get one bid, but there are still some remote scenarios where it is conceivable they could get a second bid; for example, if the top regular season team's wins all their games except for the tourney final (and also gets help from other "safe" teams holding serve in their conference tourneys).

Exactly.

When you ask a statistican for analysis, you're always going to get both the "most likely" and "I can't rule it out" extremes. "Most likely" UNE has no chance for a Pool C bid, but "I can't rule it out."

Unlike, say, the GNAC, which has no chance of a Pool C bid.

You may be able to rule it out now, UNE goes down to Gordon tonight.

[pabegg]

You may be able to rule it out now, UNE goes down to Gordon tonight.

Well, that settles that.

[pabegg]

Here's what Wednesday's games did to Pool C consideration:

Whitewater and Platteville dropped a few spots, but both are still comfortable (#3 and #6 Pool C teams, respectively). As a result, Stevens Point takes over as the likely Pool A team from the WIAC.

North Central drops with their loss to Elmhurst from #8 to #13 among Pool C teams; they're now on the bubble. Elmhurst strengthens their hold on a Pool C bid at #9.

Montclair State's win over William Paterson switches these two teams in the rankings, they're at #14 and #19, respectively. Both are on the bubble, but Montclair's sweep of Paterson probably means they would be ahead in the final selection.

As stated above, UNE's loss eliminates their Pool C chances, but they're still likely Pool A.

Wesley's loss finishes their chances.

Cornell, Hope, and Bethel gained ground but are likely too little, too late for Pool C bids.

[pbrooks3]

Patrick, what do you seeing playing out in the SCAC.  I'm thinking Trinity is in unless they have a huge collapse.  What about Centre?

[pabegg]

Patrick, what do you seeing playing out in the SCAC.  I'm thinking Trinity is in unless they have a huge collapse.  What about Centre?

I think that both Trinity and Centre are in with one more loss, and probably with two losses.