Pool C

[89Pirate]

Is there anybody out here who is willing to give me an idea of the West Region picture at this point?  Specifically for my interest, is Whitworth in even if they lose the NWC final tonight?

[Titan Q]

Sac, Titan Q and Old School, I think that you make the case for the Augie getting the 17th or 18th Pool C bid.

I still think Augustana is a longshot, and quite frankly that they have really underachieved this season, but if the Vikings are the #2 Pool C candidate from a very strong region, I think they have a chance...even when stacked up against much better in-region winning percentages from other regions.   Maybe even some secondary criteria helps them out - like Augustana vs Hamilton (East).  Augie 2-0 vs IWU, Hamilton 0-1 vs IWU.

I think most would agree the Midwest is strong enough to deserve 2 of the 18 Pool C's.  I know that is "common sense" vs actual criteria, but as I posted above, there is evidence of some of that type of discussion in this process.

As we have discussed, the biggest flaw with the current system - which I don't see a fix coming anytime soon for - is the fact they will be making a national Pool C decision based on regional data.  Some regions are stronger and deeper than others, yet the system does not include any consideration for that.  This is where I hope, when evaluating Team A vs Team B from different regions, there is at least an informal discussion along the lines of, "What would Team A's in-region record be in Team B's region?" and vice versa.  Would Hamilton be .842 in-region with Augustana's Midwest schedule this year?

[Greek Tragedy]

Is there anybody out here who is willing to give me an idea of the West Region picture at this point?  Specifically for my interest, is Whitworth in even if they lose the NWC final tonight?

West	REG	CONF	RESULTS
St. Thomas	24-0	MIAC	BEAT Gustavus Adolphus; plays Bethel in MIAC Final on Sat.
Puget Sound	20-0	NWC	BEAT Lewis and Clark; plays Whitworth in NWC Final on Sat.
UW-Stevens Point	20-4	WIAC	BEAT Oshkosh; plays Platteville in WIAC Final on Sat.
UW-Whitewater	20-4	WIAC	BEAT River Falls; LOST to Platteville
UW-Platteville	16-4	WIAC	BEAT Whitewater; plays Stevens Point in WIAC Final on Sat.
Buena Vista	20-2	IIAC	LOST to Wartburg in IIAC semis
CMS	16-4	SCIAC	BEAT Caltech; BEAT Cal. Lutheran; plays Ponoma-Pitzer in SCIAC Final on Sat.
Whitworth	18-5	NWC	BEAT Linfield; plays Puget Sound in NWC Final on Sat.
POOL A BIDS
TEAM	REG	CONF	RESULTS
Washington U.	21-2	UAA	Plays Chicago on Sat.
Richard Stockton	20-2	NJAC	BEAT William Paterson; BEAT Rutgers-Newark in NJAC Final
Gwynedd-Mercy	19-4	CSAC	BEAT Baptist Bible; BEAT Cabrini CSAC Final.
Brooklyn	23-5*	CUNYAC	BEAT York (N.Y.); BEAT Baruch in CUNYAC Final.

* overall record

Doesn't look good with two WIAC teams and possibly Claremont-Mudd-Scripps ahead of them.  Whitworth may jump them if they lose to a higher ranked Puget Sound team. 

[Ralph Turner]

I count Brooklyn's in-region record as 22-5 (No provisional St Joseph's Brooklyn)

[pabegg]

OK, here's my Saturday morning analysis, which has run into Saturday afternoon here in the east.

The top 31 Pool C contenders from the start of the week are down to 19 conferences that could produce Pool A, with Brooklyn's upset of Baruch.

Pool A bids for ranked teams (3)

Washington U.
Gwynedd-Mercy
Richard Stockton

Pool A bids for unranked teams (1)

Brooklyn

Locks for Pool C   

Locks for Pool C for eliminated teams (1)   

UW-Whitewater   

Locks for Pool C for final loser (4)   

UW-Stevens Point or UW-Platteville   
Wheaton (Ill.) or Elmhurst   
John Carroll or Capital   
Rhode Island College or Mass-Dartmouth   

Locks for Pool C if loses (5)   

St. Thomas   (F Sat)
Puget Sound   (F Sat)
Ithaca   (SF Sat)
Worcester Polytech   (SF Sat)
Middlebury   (SF Sat)

So there are 5 to 10 Pool C locks, leaving 8 to 13 bids   

Probable Pool C

Probable Pool C for eliminated teams (5)   

Buena Vista   
Guilford   
Randolph-Macon   
St. Mary's (Md.)   
Hamilton   

Probable Pool C for final loser (1)   

Salem State or Bridgewater State   

Probable Pool C if loses final (5)   

Transylvania   (F Sat)
DeSales   (F Sat)
Widener   (F Sat)
SUNY-Farmingdale   (F Sat)
St. Lawrence   (F Sat)

Probable Pool C if loses semifinal or final (2)   

Texas-Dallas   (SF Sat)
Franklin and Marshall   (SF Sat)

Probable Pool C for at least one of these ASC teams (2)   

Trinity (Texas)   (SF Sat)
Centre   (SF Sat)

There are 7 to 15 Pool C bids here. So the worst case is that 7 of these teams will not get bids, while the best case is for 6 bids to be left after this group.   

In Contention if there are any bids left

In Contention eliminated teams (1)   

Augustana   

In Contention favored to win Pool A bid (2)   

Wooster   (F Sat)
Calvin   (F Sat)

In Contention and Pool A underdog (4)   

Whitworth   (F Sat)
McMurry   (SF Sat)
McDaniel   (SF Sat)
Amherst   (SF Sat)

In Contention with no Pool A chances (2)   

Carnegie Mellon   (r/s Sat)
Brandeis   (r/s Sat)

There's a very long shot that Pool C bids leak out of this group. In that case, here's who's left.   
   
Eliminated   
   
DePauw   
Montclair State   
William Paterson   
   
Still playing   
   
Lawrence   (F Sat)
Utica   (SF Sat)
Rochester   (r/s Sat)
Bowdoin   (SF Sat)

[pabegg]

Is there anybody out here who is willing to give me an idea of the West Region picture at this point?  Specifically for my interest, is Whitworth in even if they lose the NWC final tonight?

UPS and St. Thomas will have Pool C bids if they need them with a loss today.
The WIAC loser and UW-Whitewater have Pool C bids.
Buena Vista will need to sweat out upsets, but they're in good shape.
Claremont has no Pool C chance
Whitworth would replace Buena Vista in national consideration once BV gets in. They have a chance, however slim, of getting a Pool C bid but it really depends on a lack of upsets around the country. The last two days haven't been kind to them.

[watcher]

so where does smcm stand for a pool c how worried should they be

[pabegg]

so where does smcm stand for a pool c how worried should they be

Like Buena Vista, they'll have to sweat out potential upsets, but they're probably in (98%+).

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Middlebury's in the NESCAC championship game.  They've doubled up Bowdoin with ten minutes to go.

[Titan Q]

Today's Bubble Burster games (all times CST)...

Conference tournament championship games
St. Lawrence (vs RPI, 2:00pm)
Widener (vs Elizabethtown, 2:00pm)
DeSales (vs Manhattanville, 3:00pm)
Farmingdale St. (vs St. Joseph's L.I., 6:00pm)
Wooster (vs Wabash, 6:00pm)
Transylvania (vs Franklin, 6:30pm)
Calvin (vs Hope, 6:30pm)
St. Thomas (vs Bethel, 7:30pm)
Puget Sound (vs Whitworth, 8:00pm)

Conference tournament semi-final games
Middlebury (vs Bowdoin, 1:00pm)
Franklin & Marshall (vs Muhlenberg, 2:00pm)
Ithaca (vs Nazareth, 3:00pm)
Worcester Polytech (vs Springfield, 3:30pm)
Texas-Dallas (vs Mary Hardin-Baylor, 3:30pm)


Scoreboard: http://www.d3hoops.com/schedule/mens/2009-02-28


*** changed MIAA game to 7:30

**** changed MIAA game time back to 6:30 because Q listed them as CST like a knuckle head.

[Greek Tragedy]

PL 25 SP 20 halftime.  SP was up 18 - 11 and scored at halftime buzzer.

[pabegg]

RPI has upset St. Lawrence to win a Pool A
Widener has won their Pool A

McDaniel and McMurry have lost in their SF

[Titan Q]

RPI has upset St. Lawrence to win a Pool A

Please tell me the Liberty League is not getting 3 teams.

http://www.d3hoops.com/conference/LL/mens

[pabegg]

RPI has upset St. Lawrence to win a Pool A

Please tell me the Liberty League is not getting 3 teams.

http://www.d3hoops.com/conference/LL/mens

I can't tell you that.

[pabegg]

Ithaca goes down.

I'm signing off, see you about 11 ET