Pool C

[Titan Q]

The 10 highest Massey-rated teams not projected in the field by D3hoops.com:

http://www.mratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&yr=2009&sub=III&mid=6

#10 Augustana (Midwest)
#16 North Central (Midwest)
#17 Bethel (West)
#19 Lewis & Clark (West)
#20 Carthage (Midwest)
#23 Millikin (Midwest)
#26 Cornell (West)
#27 UW-Eau Claire (West)
#28 St. Norbert (Midwest)
#30 Chapman (West)

[pabegg]

Patrick, despite what the numbers say, I just do not think the Liberty League is getting 2 Pool C bids (and 3 teams in).  I also do not think Hamilton will get selected over Augustana - I actually think the common opponent is going to be discussed (Augie 2-0 vs IWU, Hamilton 0-1 vs IWU).  I don't necessarily think Augustana is getting in (I think they are a real longshot), but I can't see Hamilton getting in over Augie.

I don't see Amherst getting in over Hamilton.
Amherst will be 19-6, Hamilton will be 16-3. Amherst will have the stronger strength of schedule, but it's not like Hamilton has a bad SOS (at 141st, they're on a par with Richard Stockton and St. Thomas, also DePauw and Mississippi College; Amherst is 50th). Hamilton is 0-2 against ranked teams, while Amherst will be 1-3 if they lose to Middlebury. On common opponents, Hamilton is 1-0 vs. Williams while Amherst is 2-1. (If they go to non-regional games, Amherst gets a huge advantage, but I don't think that it gets there.)
I think that the three losses make a difference. This is not like Wheaton last year.

By contrast, Augustana is 17-8, 2-6 versus ranked teams, no one in common with Amherst or Hamilton, 26th SOS. Again, it looks like Hamilton and then Amherst to me.

[Titan Q]

Patrick, despite what the numbers say, I just do not think the Liberty League is getting 2 Pool C bids (and 3 teams in).  I also do not think Hamilton will get selected over Augustana - I actually think the common opponent is going to be discussed (Augie 2-0 vs IWU, Hamilton 0-1 vs IWU).  I don't necessarily think Augustana is getting in (I think they are a real longshot), but I can't see Hamilton getting in over Augie.

I don't see Amherst getting in over Hamilton.
Amherst will be 19-6, Hamilton will be 16-3. Amherst will have the stronger strength of schedule, but it's not like Hamilton has a bad SOS (at 141st, they're on a par with Richard Stockton and St. Thomas, also DePauw and Mississippi College; Amherst is 50th). Hamilton is 0-2 against ranked teams, while Amherst will be 1-3 if they lose to Middlebury. On common opponents, Hamilton is 1-0 vs. Williams while Amherst is 2-1. (If they go to non-regional games, Amherst gets a huge advantage, but I don't think that it gets there.)
I think that the three losses make a difference. This is not like Wheaton last year.

By contrast, Augustana is 17-8, 2-6 versus ranked teams, no one in common with Amherst or Hamilton, 26th SOS. Again, it looks like Hamilton and then Amherst to me.

Remember, it is "results vs regionally ranked teams", not "record."  The fact Augustana has played 8 games vs regionally ranked teams could very well be a big advantage over both Hamilton (2) and Amherst (4), and others.  A committee member could say, "Sure Augustana has lost 8 in-region games, but 6 were against regionally ranked teams."  I was told by a national committee member last year in Salem that Wheaton got in because the # of games they had played vs regionally ranked teams was so high relative to the other final candidates - almost a second strength of schedule measure.

No one seems real clear on how "results vs regionally ranked teams" is used, but I'm confident it goes way beyond just record.

[pabegg]

Some thoughts on geography:

UPS and Whitworth are an isolated pair in the Northwest.
CMS is alone at the moment in SoCal, but could get Chapman as well
UTD and Trinity are an isolated pair in Texas.
Mississippi College would be within 500 miles of UTD and no one else.

If UTD wins today, the bracket could be done with as little as two flights, by creating opening round games in Texas and Washington, with one set of winners flying to CMS and another somewhere else. If Miss Coll wins today, UTD could host a four-team pod by flying in CMS and the Washington state winner would fly somewhere (St. Thomas would be the easiest and they deserve the bye anyway).

Using the new rule that allows for an extra flight, I would fly CMS and anyone else to Texas to create a four team pod, and fly the Washington winner somewhere. If Miss Coll wins, I'd consider creating four team pods at both UPS and UTD, since that would only take three flights.

[Greek Tragedy]

I'll agree with Bob on this one.  I was reading posts before I got to his and thought exactly that...OK, what is better, a team that goes 1-1 vs regional ranked opponents or a team that goes 2-6.  Yeah, Team B has a lot more losses, but playing more ranked opponents tells me their schedule was a lot harder.  I guess that would also show up in the OWP.  But in contrast, their OOWP might be lower than Team A.

[Pat Coleman]

Our projections are up:
http://www.d3hoops.com/salem/09/projected.htm

In looking over your projections, shouldn't Bracket 2 have the 6th seed listed as Empire 8 winner or do you know for a fact that RIT is going to win over Nazareth

As you can see, we projected some winners. If Nazareth were to win they might not be seeded sixth. When the champion is irrelevant for seeding and selection, we don't bother to project a winner.

[Pat Coleman]

Here's what I think happens in the final polls that is significant for Pool C:

NE: UNE replaces Bowdoin at #10
EA: RIT replaces Rochester at #5
AT: St. Joseph's (LI) comes in at #3, dropping Baruch
MA: Wesley comes in at #8, dropping Cabrini
SO: Averett comes in at #6 and Mississippi College at #7, dropping DePauw and Roanoke
GL: Hope replaces Ohio Wesleyan at #5
MW and WE have no change in their members

Basically, the same ordering holds true within each region on the Pool C competitors.

So the following come off of the board early, from East to West: WPI, RIC, Ithaca, St. Lawrence, Capital, Elmhurst, Puget Sound, Whitewater, and Platteville.

This leaves the last 9 from the following, with each region in order (no chance teams in parenthesis)

NE: Salem State, Brandeis, Amherst, Bowdoin
EA: Hamilton, (Utica)
AT: Farmingdale, (Montclair State)
MA: St. Mary's MD, (McDaniel)
SO: Trinity TX, Guilford, Randolph-Macon, (Miss College)
GL: Carnegie Mellon, Calvin
MW: (Augustana)
WE: Buena Vista, (Bethel)

I disagree with Pat on the order of Salem State and Brandeis, Trinity and Guilford within their regions.

I would take Salem State, Brandeis, Hamilton, Farmingdale, St. Mary's MD, Trinity, Guilford, Carnegie, and Buena Vista. This means that I disagree with Pat on Hamilton vs. Amherst.

Middlebury, Centre, Franklin and Marshall, and Texas-Dallas would make the field if they lose today, bumping four teams.

I ranked Maryville in the South instead of Averett.

I had Trinity ahead of Guilford initially, but since Trinity was 0-1 against my regionally ranked teams and Guilford was 1-1, I gave Guilford the nod.

Hamilton vs. Amherst: Common opponents.
Both beat Skidmore.
Hamilton lost at home to Middlebury; Amherst beat them at home (and projected to split two games).
Hamilton won at Williams; Amherst 1-1 with the win on a neutral floor.
Both beat Bates.

And let's not forget, we usually find ourselves in the secondary criteria this far down in Pool C, and Hamilton fares poorly in the secondary criteria.

[Pat Coleman]

The 10 highest Massey-rated teams not projected in the field by D3hoops.com:

http://www.mratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&yr=2009&sub=III&mid=6

#10 Augustana (Midwest)
#16 North Central (Midwest)
#17 Bethel (West)
#19 Lewis & Clark (West)
#20 Carthage (Midwest)
#23 Millikin (Midwest)
#26 Cornell (West)
#27 UW-Eau Claire (West)
#28 St. Norbert (Midwest)
#30 Chapman (West)

Cornell is in. That's the IIAC's automatic bid.

Bethel may fall from 17 once Massey counts Saturday's games.

[89Pirate]

So if Chapman gets in, you have two CA teams and two Oregon teams...fly two to Whitworth and bus UPS there?

Old School - did you really just say two Oregon teams?  Last time I checked, Tacoma and Spokane were still in Washington...just had to razz you a little bit for this one...

[magicman]

Middlebury on top of Amherst 73-68 with 1:05 remaining.

Looks like Middlebury will claim the Pool A bid for the NESCAC as they 're up 76-68 with 14 sceonds left

Final score Middlebury wins 77-68.  Amherst will likely grab a Pool C bid.

[nwhoops1903]

So if Chapman gets in, you have two CA teams and two Oregon teams...fly two to Whitworth and bus UPS there?

Oregon?  C'mon!!!!

I think that we have a 3-pod on the West Coast.

It sure would be nice to have the 2 NWC's get shipped to different brackets.  I think the conference could show something, rather than self devouring itself...but I know the deal.  Heck if the WIAC can get split 3 way, as projected, so can the NWC.  We can only hope.

[Greek Tragedy]

Not sure where that came from!  I know I didn't do well in geography in high school, but I also know I passed.  Must have been lack of sleep or something.  I can't explain that. 

As an All-American poster, I'm ashamed of myself! lol 

Yeah, I know they are in Washington...maybe I just still excited about last night's WIAC sweep for the men and women.  Now UPS and Whitworth will play extra hard against the Pointers if they play them or maybe someone will come with a sign that says what state you guys are from!

[Ralph Turner]

So if Chapman gets in, you have two CA teams and two Oregon teams...fly two to Whitworth and bus UPS there?

Oregon?  C'mon!!!!

I think that we have a 3-pod on the West Coast.

It sure would be nice to have the 2 NWC's get shipped to different brackets.  I think the conference could show something, rather than self devouring itself...but I know the deal.  Heck if the WIAC can get split 3 way, as projected, so can the NWC.  We can only hope.

Yes, I understand how you feel.

[Ralph Turner]

Not sure where that came from!  I know I didn't do well in geography in high school, but I also know I passed.  Must have been lack of sleep or something.  I can't explain that. 

As an All-American poster, I'm ashamed of myself! lol 

Yeah, I know they are in Washington...maybe I just still excited about last night's WIAC sweep for the men and women.  Now UPS and Whitworth will play extra hard against the Pointers if they play them or maybe someone will come with a sign that says what state you guys are from!

Yes, I understand how you feel.

[Greek Tragedy]

It sure would be nice to have the 2 NWC's get shipped to different brackets.  I think the conference could show something, rather than self devouring itself...but I know the deal.  Heck if the WIAC can get split 3 way, as projected, so can the NWC.  We can only hope.

They aren't isolated like those guys from Oregon! lol :-)  Plus, the NCAA doesn't support Chelsea!  Go Man Utd!!  Carling Cup Champs!