Pool C

[Titan Q]

Posted this on the CCIW board in regards to IWU and Wheaton, but will post here too...


I see 9 Pool C teams that will get in before the highest ranked team in the Midwest (which almost certainly will be IWU).  These are in no order...

* St. Thomas
* St. John Fisher
* John Carroll
* MIT
* Eastern Mennonite
* Virginia Wesleyan
* Guilford/Randolph-Macon loser (tomorrow)
* UW-Whitewater
* Williams/Middlebury loser (tomorrow)

(I'm putting 4 ODAC teams in...3 Pool C's.)

I see two games tomorrow that could potentially add teams to this list:

- Gettysburg @ Franklin & Marshall (need F&M to win)
- Texas-Dallas @ Mary Hardin-Baylor (need Texas-Dallas to win)

So if IWU is the highest ranked Midwest Pool C candidate, I think they probably enter the selection process behind 9 teams...11 at the most (if F&M and Texas-Dallas both lose).  Now, there are 19 Pool C bids available, so they have 10 rounds or so to get selected.  And if you look at the resumes of the candidates after those top 9, there are not that many better than IWU's overall.  Several have better in-region winning %, but IWU is helped by a strong strength of schedule and several wins over other regionally ranked teams (Carthage, Wheaton, Augustana twice).

After those 11 near locks listed above (assuming both F&M and Texas-Dallas lose tomorrow), I see IWU in the next tier of Pool C candidates, alongside teams like the following (again, in no order):

* Richard Stockton
* Oneonta St
* Illinois Wesleyan
* Lycoming
* Colby
* Brandeis
 

If the Midwest committee ranks IWU ahead of Wheaton (which again, almost has to happen), I feel very confident IWU gets in somewhere in the neighborhood of round 13 or so...and about #17 at the absolute worst.  I believe the Titans are in good shape.

I think Wheaton is out.  With the upsets that have taken place, I just don't think the .680 in-region winning percentage will be competitive. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't think it looks good for Wheaton.

I think the final 2-3 Pool C spots will come down to this group of teams:

* Rutgers-Newark
* Ithaca
* Calvin
* Thomas More
* Messiah
* Wheaton (IL)
* Anderson
* Austin
* UW-La Crosse

[Greek Tragedy]

Pool A  (Automatic Qualifier)

Pool C

Conference Leader

Atlantic Region In-Region Record Overall Record
AQ1.(1) William Paterson 22-2 23-2 (NJAC)  BEAT Richard Stockton in NJAC Final
AQ2.(2) Merchant Marine 20-4 21-4 (LAND) BEAT Scranton in Landmark Final
3.(3) Rutgers-Newark  16-5 20-6 (NJAC) LOST to Richard Stockton in NJAC semis
4.(5) Richard Stockton 19-5 19-6 (NJAC) LOST to William Paterson in NJAC Final
5.(4) Ramapo 17-7 18-8 (NJAC) LOST to William Paterson in NJAC semis;

Previously ranked:  York (N.Y.)  (CUNYAC) LOST to Brooklyn in CUNYAC Final

East Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1.(1) St. John Fisher  20-4 21-4 (Empire 8); LOST to Nazareth in Empire 8 Final
AQ2.(6) Plattsburgh State  17-6 18-7 (SUNYAC) BEAT Oneonta State in SUNYAC Final
3.(3) Oneonta State  19-5 20-5 (SUNYAC) LOST to Plattsburgh State in SUNYAC Final
4.(NA) Ithaca  15-6 18-7 (Empire 8) LOST to Nazareth in Empire 8 semis  
AQ5.(2) Medaille  20-4 21-4 (AMCC); BEAT Pitt-Bradford in AMCC Final
6.(5) New York University 15-8 16-8 (UAA); LOST to Brandeis  

Dropping out:  Stevens  (Empire 8)

Previously ranked: AQ Nazareth (Empire 8) BEAT St. John Fisher in Empire 8 Final, Rochester  (UAA) BEAT Emory

Great Lakes Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1.(2) John Carroll  17-5 19-5 (OAC) LOST to Heidelberg in OAC semis.
AQ2.(3) Wooster  20-4 20-5 (NCAC); BEAT Wittenberg in NCAC Final
AQ3.(1) Hope 13-3 18-7 (MIAA); BEAT Calvin in MIAA Final
4.(4) Calvin 13-3 17-8 (MIAA); LOST to Hope in MIAA Final
5.(6) Thomas More  19-6 19-6 (PrAC) LOST to Grove City in PrAC Final
AQ6.(NA) Wilmington 17-6 18-7 (OAC); BEAT Heidelberg in OAC Final.

Dropping out:  Wittenberg (NCAC) LOST to Wooster in NCAC Final

Middle Atlantic Region In-Region Record Overall Record
AQ1.(4) St. Mary's 20-3 22-3 (CAC); BEAT Wesley in CAC Final
AQ2.(1) Albright 18-5 19-5 (MACC) BEAT Lycoming in MACC Final  
3.(2) Franklin and Marshall 21-4 21-4 (Centennial); plays Gettysburg in Centennial Final on Sunday
AQ4.(5) Cabrini 23-2 23-2 (CSAC); BEAT Neumann in CSAC Final
5.(3) Lycoming 16-5 20-5 (MACC) LOST to Albright in MACC Final  
AQ6.(6) DeSales 19-4 20-5 (MACF); BEAT Misericordia in MACF Final
7.(8) Messiah 15-5 16-8 (MACC); LOST to Albright in MACC semis
8.(7) York (Pa) 18-6 19-6 (CAC); LOST to Wesley in CAC semis
9.(NA) Wesley 14-5 17-7 (CAC); LOST to St. Mary's (Md) in CAC Final

Dropping out:  Catholic (LAND) LOST to Scranton in LAND semis

Previously ranked:  Elizabethtown (MACC) LOST to Lycoming in MACC semis, Alvernia (MACC)


Midwest Region In-Region Record Overall Record
AQ1.(1) Washington U 19-2 22-2 (UAA); BEAT Chicago
AQ2.(2) Carthage 16-3 20-5 (CCIW); BEAT Illinois Wesleyan in CCIW Final
3.(4) Wheaton (Ill) 17-7 18-7 (CCIW); LOST to Illinois Wesleyan in CCIW semis
4.(5) Illinois Wesleyan  18-6 19-6 (CCIW); LOST to Carthage in CCIW Final
AQ5.(3) St. Norbert 19-3 20-3 (MWC); BEAT Carroll U. in MWC Final
6.(6) Anderson 19-4 21-4 (HCAC); LOST to Defiance in HCAC Final
AQ7.(7) Defiance 18-5 20-5 (HCAC); BEAT Anderson in HCAC Final
8.(8) Augustana 16-8 16-9 (CCIW); LOST to Carthage in CCIW semis

Northeast Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1.(1) Williams 22-0 24-1 (NESCAC); plays Middlebury in NESCAC Final on Sunday
2.(3) Middlebury 19-2 23-2 (NESCAC); plays Williams in NESCAC Final on Sunday
3.(2) MIT 21-2 22-3 (NEWMAC); LOST to Clark in NEWMAC semis
4.(5) Colby 17-4 19-5 (NESCAC); LOST to Middlebury in NESCAC semis
5.(4) Brandeis 18-6 18-6 (UAA); BEAT NYU on
AQ6.(7) Rhode Island College  18-7 18-7 (LEC); BEAT Western Connecticut in LEC Final
AQ7.(6) Bridgewater State 16-5 17-7 (MASCAC); BEAT Framingham State in MASCAC Final
AQ8.(9) Gordon 20-4 21-4 (CCC); BEAT Curry in CCC Final
9.(11) Western Connecticut  17-6 18-6 (LEC); LOST to Rhode Island College in LEC Final  
10.(10) WPI 17-6 18-6 (NEWMAC); plays Clark in NEWMAC Final on Sunday
11.(8)Eastern Connecticut  17-8 17-8 (LEC); LOST to Western Connecticut in LEC semis

Previously ranked:  Mass-Dartmouth (LEC); AQ Albertus Magnus (GNAC) BEAT Emerson in GNAC Final

South Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1.(1) Eastern Mennonite  17-2 21-3 (ODAC) LOST to Randolph-Macon in ODAC semis
2.(2) Guilford 23-2 23-2 (ODAC) Plays Randolph-Macon in ODAC Final on Sunday
3.(3) Texas-Dallas 20-3 21-4 (ASC-East); plays Mary Hardin-Baylor in ASC Final
4.(4) Virginia Wesleyan  19-4 21-4 (ODAC); LOST to Guilford in ODAC semis  
5.(6) Randolph-Macon 14-5 20-5 (ODAC); plays Guilford in ODAC Final
6.(7) Maryville (Tenn.) 14-3 21-4 (GSAC) Pool B; BEAT La Grange in GSAC Final
7.(5) Austin 19-6 19-6 (SCAC); LOST to DePauw in SCAC semis
8.(8) Mary Hardin-Baylor 19-5 19-6 (ASC-West); plays Texas Dallas in ASC Final

Previously ranked:  Mississippi College  (ASC-East) LOST to Mary Hardin-Baylor in ASC semis

West Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1.(1) Whitewater 21-4 21-4 (WIAC); LOST to Stevens Point in WIAC Final
2.(3) St. Thomas 20-2 23-2 (MIAC); LOST to Carleton in MIAC semis
AQ3.(4) Whitworth 21-2 23-2 (NWC); BEAT George Fox in NWC Final
AQ4.(2) Stevens Point 20-4 21-4 (WIAC); BEAT Whitewater in WIAC Final
AQ5.(5)Central 19-2 21-4 (IIAC) BEAT Buena Vista in IIAC Final
6.(7) Chapman 17-1 23-2 (Independent) Pool B
7.(9) La Crosse 16-7 17-8 (WIAC); LOST to Superior in WIAC quarterfinals
AQ8.(6) Claremont–Mudd-Scripps  15-4 19-5 (SCIAC) BEAT Ponoma-Pitzer in SCIAC Final
9.(8) Augsburg  17-7 18-7 (MIAC); LOST to Gustavus Adolphus in MIAC semis

[KnightSlappy]

I think Wheaton is out.  With the upsets that have taken place, I just don't think the .680 in-region winning percentage will be competitive. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't think it looks good for Wheaton.

I think the final 2-3 Pool C spots will come down to this group of teams:

* Rutgers-Newark
* Ithaca
* Calvin
* Thomas More
* Messiah
* Wheaton (IL)
* Anderson
* Austin
* UW-La Crosse

So if your 15 listed above get in (as I believe they will) and Texas-Dallas and F&M win, we have 4 spots left.

Wheaton's SOS is monster compared to everyone else's, plus, as Pat points out in his projection, they beat Calvin head to head, should the committee look to the secondary.

when ziggy and I did our projection last night, we pretty much had this on the board (can't remember exactly what it was but we had Calvin ahead of Thomas More in our GL rankings, and UMHB ahead of Austin in the south, Wheaton ahead of Anderson in the MW). We ended up taking Rutgers-Newark, Messiah, Calvin, and Wheaton.

[usee]

KnightSlappy, I think those are exactly the questions I have.  Q says .680 in region winning percentage is bad (it is) but Wheaton's SOS is the best and both are primary criteria so what do you do. The Thunder also have the win vs Calvin (out of region) and are 2-1 against IWU (does the most recent loss count most? I think the committee has to rank IWU ahead of Wheaton simply because their overall resume looks a little better but it's not a slam dunk given the HTH season record).

As a Wheaton fan I am resigned to the fact the Thunder may be done and 4 losses by two points or less may be their undoing. The one that hurts the most right now is the in region loss to Hamline in December. We knew then it was huge and now it may be the thing that keeps Wheaton out of the tourney.

[ziggy]

KnightSlappy, I think those are exactly the questions I have.  Q says .680 in region winning percentage is bad (it is) but Wheaton's SOS is the best and both are primary criteria so what do you do. The Thunder also have the win vs Calvin (out of region) and are 2-1 against IWU (does the most recent loss count most? I think the committee has to rank IWU ahead of Wheaton simply because their overall resume looks a little better but it's not a slam dunk given the HTH season record).

As a Wheaton fan I am resigned to the fact the Thunder may be done and 4 losses by two points or less may be their undoing. The one that hurts the most right now is the in region loss to Hamline in December. We knew then it was huge and now it may be the thing that keeps Wheaton out of the tourney.

the thing about the final Pool C candidates is that they all have faults. Whether it be SOS or WP there are no perfect choices. Wheaton does have the great SOS but they will likely be compared to Mary Hardin-Baylor who has a great WP but terrible SOS. Wheaton's wins over regionally ranked opponents put them over the top for us.

[Titan Q]

My 3 tiers of Pool C candidates are:

(Teams within tiers are not listed in any order.)

First In
* St. Thomas
* St. John Fisher
* John Carroll
* MIT
* Eastern Mennonite
* Virginia Wesleyan
* Guilford/Randolph-Macon loser (2:30pm CST)
* UW-Whitewater
* Middlebury

Two teams that could join this list today with losses:

* Franklin & Marshall (hosts Gettysburg, 2:00pm CST)
* Texas-Dallas (@ Mary Hardin-Baylor, 2:00pm CST)

Second Tier (safely in)
* Richard Stockton
* Oneonta St
* Illinois Wesleyan
* Lycoming
* Colby
* Brandeis

The Bubble (4 spots available if F&M and Texas-Dallas both win)
* Rutgers-Newark
* Ithaca
* Calvin
* Thomas More
* Messiah
* Wheaton (IL)
* Anderson
* Austin
* UW-La Crosse


If Texas-Dallas and F&M both win, I'm starting to think Wheaton is in as about #17 and Anderson has a chance to get #18 or #19.  (With 2 more from the Bubble list above rounding out the last four in.)

[Titan Q]

the thing about the final Pool C candidates is that they all have faults. Whether it be SOS or WP there are no perfect choices. Wheaton does have the great SOS but they will likely be compared to Mary Hardin-Baylor who has a great WP but terrible SOS. Wheaton's wins over regionally ranked opponents put them over the top for us.

Something to consider is that the national committee knows the flaws in the current SOS system, especially as it impacts the ASC teams.  I had a discussion with South region chair Pat Cunningham about this a month or so ago actually.  (And I think national chair Charlie Brock acknowledged this problem on Hoopsville earlier in the year.)  Because the ASC teams play so incredibly few non-conference games, their SOS really can't possibly stray too far from .500.  It's not like, say, the CCIW where 11 non-conference games allow for SOS to be built up over .600 or so.

I guess I'm just saying, realize the national committee will not just simply look at a team like Wheaton's SOS relative to a Mary Hardin-Baylor and automatically decide Wheaton gets and edge due to SOS.  They do look beyond the numbers.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Bubble Trouble?

UMHB is on a 12-0 run, taking a 10-point lead with 4 minutes 'til the half.

[Mr. Ypsi]

On the other hand, F & M leads by 15 at the half.

[KnightSlappy]

the thing about the final Pool C candidates is that they all have faults. Whether it be SOS or WP there are no perfect choices. Wheaton does have the great SOS but they will likely be compared to Mary Hardin-Baylor who has a great WP but terrible SOS. Wheaton's wins over regionally ranked opponents put them over the top for us.

Something to consider is that the national committee knows the flaws in the current SOS system, especially as it impacts the ASC teams.  I had a discussion with South region chair Pat Cunningham about this a month or so ago actually.  (And I think national chair Charlie Brock acknowledged this problem on Hoopsville earlier in the year.)  Because the ASC teams play so incredibly few non-conference games, their SOS really can't possibly stray too far from .500.  It's not like, say, the CCIW where 11 non-conference games allow for SOS to be built up over .600 or so.

I guess I'm just saying, realize the national committee will not just simply look at a team like Wheaton's SOS relative to a Mary Hardin-Baylor and automatically decide Wheaton gets and edge due to SOS.  They do look beyond the numbers.

But UMHB's SOS has been so far below .500 this year... the large number of conference games should actually be helping them.

May not matter though, UMHB has a 14 point lead just before halftime.

[Mr. Ypsi]

UMHB trailed 23-25 when they went on a 16-0 run!  They lead at the half, 42-30.

[Ralph Turner]

the thing about the final Pool C candidates is that they all have faults. Whether it be SOS or WP there are no perfect choices. Wheaton does have the great SOS but they will likely be compared to Mary Hardin-Baylor who has a great WP but terrible SOS. Wheaton's wins over regionally ranked opponents put them over the top for us.

Something to consider is that the national committee knows the flaws in the current SOS system, especially as it impacts the ASC teams.  I had a discussion with South region chair Pat Cunningham about this a month or so ago actually.  (And I think national chair Charlie Brock acknowledged this problem on Hoopsville earlier in the year.)  Because the ASC teams play so incredibly few non-conference games, their SOS really can't possibly stray too far from .500.  It's not like, say, the CCIW where 11 non-conference games allow for SOS to be built up over .600 or so.

I guess I'm just saying, realize the national committee will not just simply look at a team like Wheaton's SOS relative to a Mary Hardin-Baylor and automatically decide Wheaton gets and edge due to SOS.  They do look beyond the numbers.

Thanks for the comments, Titan Q.

The debates that we have had on the ASC boards is that coaches have to fill 25 dates each season.

For all practical purposes, the closest 20/21 opponents (the double round robin and single crossover schedule for the 7 member East and the 8 member West divisions) are the conference members are the conference members.  Filling 20/21 dates on the schedule locks out those dates as ones that can be used to schedule with another team that is nearby.  Trinity, Southwestern, Austin College, University of Dallas, and Millsaps are basically the only schools nearby that can fill those dates.  Every other D3 opponent is a plane flight.

We can jokingly refer to the ASC conference tourney as a "play-in" tourney.  Both UTD and UMHB have been ranked in the Regional Rankings.  If the conference were split, then they could take a Pool C bid away from D-III and have another Pool A to distribute.  (Also, An extra Pool A bid might shift the distribution of first round pods because of geographic proximity.)

[magicman]

Franklin and Marshall downs Gettsburg 66-62 to win the Centennial Conference Championship

[magicman]

UT-Dallas coming back against Mary Hardin-Baylor, only down by 3 64-61 with 4 minutes to play.

[magicman]

Dallas closes to within 2 at 65-63 with a 16-1 run but UNHB now ahead 69-63 with 2:08 to go.