Pool C

[sac]

I think some people are forgetting that D3 Championships are about access not necessarily quality. 

[Titan Q]

A look at SOS for all 61 tournament teams, with the 18 Pool C's in bold...


1. UW-River Falls, C: .585
2. Rhode Island, A: .576
3. Middlebury, A: .573
4. Williams, C: .558
5. Wittenberg, C: .552
6. Randolph-Macon, A: .548
7. Ithaca, C: .547
8. Illinois Wesleyan, C: .543
9. Hanover, C: .542
10. UW-Stevens Point, A: .540
11. Elms, A: .534
12. Western Conn, C: .531
13. New Jersey City, A: .530
14. Augustana, A: .527
15. Chapman, B: .525
16. Delware Valley, A: .525
17. St. Thomas, A: .523
18. Bethany, A: .519
19. Bridgewater St, A: .519
20. Skidmore, A: .517
21. WPI, C: .516
22. McMurry, A: .515
23. Buffalo St, A: .510
24. Salve Regina, A: .510
25. Mary Hardin-Baylor, C: .508
26. Oswego St, C: .507
27. Ramapo, C: .507
28. Rochester, A: .507
29. Va Wesleyan, C: .506
30. Becker, C: .505
31. Cabrini, A: .504
32. Gwynedd-Mercy, C: .502
33. Concordia (WI), C: .501
34. Hartrick, A: .501
35. Centre, A: .496
36. Whitworth, A: .496
37. Hope, A: .492
38. MIT, A: .492
39. Alvernia, A: .488
40. Luther, A: .487
41. Manchester, A: .487
42. NC Wesleyan, A: .486
43. Purchase, A: .486
44. Wooster, A: .486
45. Texas-Dallas, C: .485
46. Johnson & Wales, A: .482
47. Penn St-Behrend, C: .481
48. St. Mary's (Md), A: .479
49. Wells, A: .471
50. Benedictine, A: .471
51. La Roche, A: .466
52. Amherst, C: .464
53. Franklin & Marshall, A: .463
54. Medgar Evers, A: .463
55. St. Norbert, A: .462
56. Marietta, A: .456
57. Scranton, A: .451
58. Redlands, A: .433
59. Northwestern, A: .430
60. Webster, A: .430
61. Husson, A: .421

[KnightSlappy]

TEAM A: 0.684 WP, 0.543 SOS, 1-2 vRRO
TEAM B: 0.692 WP, 0.543 SOS, 2-2 vRRO

TEAM B is the obvious choice between these two teams, and there are other criteria to discuss, but the similarity is surprising to me.

TEAM B was a Pool C selection, but TEAM A never had a prayer.

Calvin and IWU.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

SOS is a big deal for the committee.  It has been for the decade plus I've been following d3.  It's probably more important, in my opinion, than it should be.

For IWU's sake, I hope the gave against River Falls is at least close.

[KnightSlappy]

SOS is a big deal for the committee.  It has been for the decade plus I've been following d3.  It's probably more important, in my opinion, than it should be.

For IWU's sake, I hope the gave against River Falls is at least close.

The big problem with SOS is that in a vacuum, it means nothing.

Winning percentage doesn't mean a heckuva lot on it's own either.

The two need to be connected to each other and weighed against each other the same way every time. I know some people grumble about RPI's and computer rankings, but I would love it if D3 combined the WP and SOS in some mathmatical way, and then adjusted that based on head-to-head and vRRO and the like.

[carletonsid]

SOS is a big deal for the committee.  It has been for the decade plus I've been following d3.  It's probably more important, in my opinion, than it should be.

For IWU's sake, I hope the gave against River Falls is at least close.

The big problem with SOS is that in a vacuum, it means nothing.

Winning percentage doesn't mean a heckuva lot on it's own either.

The two need to be connected to each other and weighed against each other the same way every time. I know some people grumble about RPI's and computer rankings, but I would love it if D3 combined the WP and SOS in some mathmatical way, and then adjusted that based on head-to-head and vRRO and the like.

I agree to an extent, but I think SOS and regional win pct. give a pretty good indicator of a team's relative success, and then if you sprinkle in vRRO and take a look at head-to-head, it should give you a good idea of the team's merits.

To me, if a team has a strong RWP (regional win percentage) and solid SOS, along with a good amount of games vRRO, that shows they should be considered. It seems with this year's selections, though, that somehow the committee used a bit of both RWP and SOS, but not consistently. For instance, they took two teams with .800 RWP but SOS of .502. On the flip, they took teams with RWP of .727 and .692, yet SOS of .552 and .543. So perhaps an .800 RWP was a clincher, as was an SOS of .540+. That would explain taking IWU and Witt (SOS of .543 & .552, respectively). UTD and GMC had RWP of .800.

For me, though, it's great if you have a strong SOS but you need to win those games, which is why it's hard to see how Witt and IWU were picked over Carleton. Anyone can play a tough schedule, but the point is to win the games. Plus, Carleton won as many games vRRO (5) as Witt and IWU combined (5).

So maybe a RPI rating is the way to go. It would make things much more transparent and programs out there would know how the process works in a more black-and-white way. It would also back the committee in a corner, so to speak, in making the selections. Maybe that's a good thing, maybe not.  I've been involved in NCAA selections for golf and I chair the All-American committee for golf as well, and everything is very cut-and-dried in that sport because you have volumes of numbers and basically an RPI system created by Golfstat that is used at all NCAA divisions. Division I has an RPI system, so why not Division III? I think the major problem, no matter what system you use, is there just isn't enough play across regions so there's no way to really compare, and the sample size you have for comparison is so small it would skew the system. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

SOS is a big deal for the committee.  It has been for the decade plus I've been following d3.  It's probably more important, in my opinion, than it should be.

For IWU's sake, I hope the gave against River Falls is at least close.

The big problem with SOS is that in a vacuum, it means nothing.

Winning percentage doesn't mean a heckuva lot on it's own either.

The two need to be connected to each other and weighed against each other the same way every time. I know some people grumble about RPI's and computer rankings, but I would love it if D3 combined the WP and SOS in some mathmatical way, and then adjusted that based on head-to-head and vRRO and the like.

Exactly.  That's why I think it's overvalued.  I've said over and over, Becker doesn't deserve to be in the tournament.  They've got fantastic numbers, mostly because, if you plan it right, you can get a high SOS in the NE without actually beating anyone of note.

A high SOS in the Midwest is a bit more impressive.

[Ralph Turner]

SOS is a big deal for the committee.  It has been for the decade plus I've been following d3.  It's probably more important, in my opinion, than it should be.

For IWU's sake, I hope the gave against River Falls is at least close.

The big problem with SOS is that in a vacuum, it means nothing.

Winning percentage doesn't mean a heckuva lot on it's own either.

The two need to be connected to each other and weighed against each other the same way every time. I know some people grumble about RPI's and computer rankings, but I would love it if D3 combined the WP and SOS in some mathmatical way, and then adjusted that based on head-to-head and vRRO and the like.

Exactly.  That's why I think it's overvalued.  I've said over and over, Becker doesn't deserve to be in the tournament.  They've got fantastic numbers, mostly because, if you plan it right, you can get a high SOS in the NE without actually beating anyone of note.A high SOS in the Midwest is a bit more impressive.

+1!  

But when you have a conference that is so large, and needs D-III games from inside the conference to fill a 25 game schedule so badly that you can never get the numbers to have a viable model, you need a person. 

[iwumichigander]

Q - Div III Allotment for Flights?
A - NCAA develops budgets for each sport and championship.  So perhaps a right way to approach the question is a budget versus allotment.  Within the budget, some funding exists for flights.  Usually, it is admittedly very limited which is why, for example,  Div III has the 500 mile rule.  If you search ncaa.org you can probably find budgets from prior years.  I have never been able find the current seasons' budget online during the season.  As Pat noted, your regional committee member might help with the info.

Division III still gets most of its funding for basketball championships from Division I.
P.S. - If you compare Div I to Div III you are only going to be ill.

[nwhoops1903]

Flight allotment:
How about the equality question with the women?  Suppose we can count 5 guaranteed flights in the Ladies brackets. Does that mean men "have" the same budget?

[KnightSlappy]

SOS is a big deal for the committee.  It has been for the decade plus I've been following d3.  It's probably more important, in my opinion, than it should be.

For IWU's sake, I hope the gave against River Falls is at least close.

The big problem with SOS is that in a vacuum, it means nothing.

Winning percentage doesn't mean a heckuva lot on it's own either.

The two need to be connected to each other and weighed against each other the same way every time. I know some people grumble about RPI's and computer rankings, but I would love it if D3 combined the WP and SOS in some mathmatical way, and then adjusted that based on head-to-head and vRRO and the like.

Exactly.  That's why I think it's overvalued.  I've said over and over, Becker doesn't deserve to be in the tournament.  They've got fantastic numbers, mostly because, if you plan it right, you can get a high SOS in the NE without actually beating anyone of note.A high SOS in the Midwest is a bit more impressive.

+1!  

But when you have a conference that is so large, and needs D-III games from inside the conference to fill a 25 game schedule so badly that you can never get the numbers to have a viable model, you need a person. 

Are the ASC SOS numbers really that unfair?

according to my sheet, which may be slightly off from the official NCAA calcs, they vary from 0.532 to 0.484 with an average of 0.506.

The NATHCON, for comparison (another large league, but in a well populated D3 area), varied from 0.536 to 0.457 with an average of 0.489.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Flight allotment:
How about the equality question with the women?  Suppose we can count 5 guaranteed flights in the Ladies brackets. Does that mean men "have" the same budget?

The simple answer is: sure, why not.
The harder answer is: really not sure.

[iwumichigander]

Flight allotment:
How about the equality question with the women?  Suppose we can count 5 guaranteed flights in the Ladies brackets. Does that mean men "have" the same budget?

The simple answer is: sure, why not.
The harder answer is: really not sure.

Dave - From memory, the budgets for women vs men are not the same.  The variation within divisions is probably driven by geographic and the number of participating schools.  I seem to remember Pat posting recently there are more D3 women than men institutions (as an example of why the men have a smaller bracket).  Offsetting that, the men's tournament generates more direct revenue than women's.

[Ralph Turner]

SOS is a big deal for the committee.  It has been for the decade plus I've been following d3.  It's probably more important, in my opinion, than it should be.

For IWU's sake, I hope the gave against River Falls is at least close.

The big problem with SOS is that in a vacuum, it means nothing.

Winning percentage doesn't mean a heckuva lot on it's own either.

The two need to be connected to each other and weighed against each other the same way every time. I know some people grumble about RPI's and computer rankings, but I would love it if D3 combined the WP and SOS in some mathmatical way, and then adjusted that based on head-to-head and vRRO and the like.

Exactly.  That's why I think it's overvalued.  I've said over and over, Becker doesn't deserve to be in the tournament.  They've got fantastic numbers, mostly because, if you plan it right, you can get a high SOS in the NE without actually beating anyone of note.A high SOS in the Midwest is a bit more impressive.

+1!  

But when you have a conference that is so large, and needs D-III games from inside the conference to fill a 25 game schedule so badly that you can never get the numbers to have a viable model, you need a person.  

Are the ASC SOS numbers really that unfair?

according to my sheet, which may be slightly off from the official NCAA calcs, they vary from 0.532 to 0.484 with an average of 0.506.

The NATHCON, for comparison (another large league, but in a well populated D3 area), varied from 0.536 to 0.457 with an average of 0.489.

Knightslappy,

Thanks for the response.  Can you share the link for the OWP/OOWP numbers?

Who is 0.532 and who is ..484?

[KnightSlappy]

SOS is a big deal for the committee.  It has been for the decade plus I've been following d3.  It's probably more important, in my opinion, than it should be.

For IWU's sake, I hope the gave against River Falls is at least close.

The big problem with SOS is that in a vacuum, it means nothing.

Winning percentage doesn't mean a heckuva lot on it's own either.

The two need to be connected to each other and weighed against each other the same way every time. I know some people grumble about RPI's and computer rankings, but I would love it if D3 combined the WP and SOS in some mathmatical way, and then adjusted that based on head-to-head and vRRO and the like.

Exactly.  That's why I think it's overvalued.  I've said over and over, Becker doesn't deserve to be in the tournament.  They've got fantastic numbers, mostly because, if you plan it right, you can get a high SOS in the NE without actually beating anyone of note.A high SOS in the Midwest is a bit more impressive.

+1!  

But when you have a conference that is so large, and needs D-III games from inside the conference to fill a 25 game schedule so badly that you can never get the numbers to have a viable model, you need a person.  

Are the ASC SOS numbers really that unfair?

according to my sheet, which may be slightly off from the official NCAA calcs, they vary from 0.532 to 0.484 with an average of 0.506.

The NATHCON, for comparison (another large league, but in a well populated D3 area), varied from 0.536 to 0.457 with an average of 0.489.

Knightslappy,

Thanks for the response.  Can you share the link for the OWP/OOWP numbers?

Who is 0.532 and who is ..484?

This is what I have, which is not exactly the official numbers, but it's what I've been working with all year.

Howard Payne   0.532
University of the Ozarks   0.525
Texas Lutheran   0.519
McMurry   0.517
Sul Ross State   0.516
Hardin-Simmons   0.511
Mary Hardin-Baylor   0.509
Schreiner   0.503
Texas-Tyler   0.500
Mississippi College   0.500
Concordia (Texas)   0.497
East Texas Baptist   0.496
Louisiana College   0.490
Texas-Dallas   0.488
LeTourneau   0.484