Pool C

[Ralph Turner]

SOS is a big deal for the committee.  It has been for the decade plus I've been following d3.  It's probably more important, in my opinion, than it should be.

For IWU's sake, I hope the gave against River Falls is at least close.

The big problem with SOS is that in a vacuum, it means nothing.

Winning percentage doesn't mean a heckuva lot on it's own either.

The two need to be connected to each other and weighed against each other the same way every time. I know some people grumble about RPI's and computer rankings, but I would love it if D3 combined the WP and SOS in some mathmatical way, and then adjusted that based on head-to-head and vRRO and the like.

Exactly.  That's why I think it's overvalued.  I've said over and over, Becker doesn't deserve to be in the tournament.  They've got fantastic numbers, mostly because, if you plan it right, you can get a high SOS in the NE without actually beating anyone of note.A high SOS in the Midwest is a bit more impressive.

+1!  

But when you have a conference that is so large, and needs D-III games from inside the conference to fill a 25 game schedule so badly that you can never get the numbers to have a viable model, you need a person.  

Are the ASC SOS numbers really that unfair?

according to my sheet, which may be slightly off from the official NCAA calcs, they vary from 0.532 to 0.484 with an average of 0.506.

The NATHCON, for comparison (another large league, but in a well populated D3 area), varied from 0.536 to 0.457 with an average of 0.489.

Knightslappy,

Thanks for the response.  Can you share the link for the OWP/OOWP numbers?

Who is 0.532 and who is ..484?

This is what I have, which is not exactly the official numbers, but it's what I've been working with all year.



The ASC plays single round-robin inter-division and double round robin intra-division.  The West played 21 games; the East played 20 games.  Here are the non-conference D-III games by each team.  The in-region record is listed. (The Division, West or East, is listed before the school name. Neutral site = n.  Non-in-region = Italics.)
Division   Team OWP   In-region record  In-region D-3 foes.

W -  Howard Payne   0.532      6-18       at Rhodes, at Rust, at Austin College
E -  University of the Ozarks   0.525   5-18  Hendrix, at Birmingham-Southern, (at Covenant PY-2)
W -  Texas Lutheran     0.519    11-12  (played only 24 games) (n)Willamette, (n) ETBU/non-conferenceW -  McMurry   0.517  20-6  at Guilford, (n) Averett
W -  Sul Ross State   0.516  7-14  None -- geographically, SRSU played  4 of the closest non D-3 schools near them, within 350 miles.
Hardin-Simmons   0.511  15-8   at Southwestern, (n) Trinity
Mary Hardin-Baylor   0.509  21-7   Southwestern, at Austin, Willamette, ETBU non-conferenceSchreiner   0.503          10-14        at Trinity,  at Southwestern,   UDallas    
Texas-Tyler   0.500      12-12     (n) Huntingdon, at LaGrange (650 miles)
Mississippi College   0.500      11-11  at Millsaps (only played 24 games)
Concordia (Texas)   0.497       15-10  Southwestern,  UW-Platteville, Beloit  
East Texas Baptist   0.496       16-10  (n) UDallas, at Austin, at UMHB/non-conf, (n)Texas Lutheran/non-confLouisiana College   0.490       10-10  None (only 24 games)  Lacollege is the only D3 in the state of Louisiana
Texas-Dallas   0.488      21-5  (only played 24 games.  Ausitn College, at Austin, Stevenson, at UDallas
LeTourneau   0.484   at Austin, (n) UDallas, Hendrix, at Hendrix

Does Howard Payne get that OWP by playing 3 medicore teams on the road?



The ASC plays single round-robin inter-division and double round robin intra-division.  The West played 21 games; the East played 20 games.  Here are the non-conference D-III games by each team.  The in-region record is listed. (The Division, West or East, is listed before the school name. Neutral site = n.  Non-in-region = Italics.)
Division   Team OWP   In-region record  In-region D-3 foes.

W -  Howard Payne   0.532      6-18       at Rhodes, at Rust, at Austin College
E -  University of the Ozarks   0.525   5-18  Hendrix, at Birmingham-Southern, (at Covenant PY-2)
W -  Texas Lutheran     0.519    11-12  (played only 24 games) (n)Willamette, (n) ETBU/non-conference
W -  McMurry   0.517  20-6  at Guilford, (n) Averett
W -  Sul Ross State   0.516  7-14  None -- geographically, SRSU played  4 of the closest non D-3 schools near them, within 350 miles.
W -  Hardin-Simmons   0.511  15-8   at Southwestern, (n) Trinity
W - Mary Hardin-Baylor   0.509  21-7   Southwestern, at Austin, Willamette, ETBU non-conference
W - Schreiner   0.503          10-14        at Trinity,  at Southwestern,   UDallas    
E- Texas-Tyler   0.500      12-12     (n) Huntingdon, at LaGrange (650 miles)
E- Mississippi College   0.500      11-11  at Millsaps (only played 24 games)
W - Concordia (Texas)   0.497       15-10  Southwestern,  UW-Platteville, Beloit  
E - East Texas Baptist   0.496       16-10  (n) UDallas, at Austin, at UMHB/non-conf, (n)TLU/non-conf
E - Louisiana College   0.490       10-10  None (only 24 games)  Lacollege is the only D3 in the state of Louisiana
E - Texas-Dallas   0.488      21-5  (only played 24 games.  Ausitn College, at Austin, Stevenson, at UDallas
E - LeTourneau   0.484   at Austin, (n) UDallas, Hendrix, at Hendrix

Sixteen unique in-region opponents and 30 games:

SCAC	7 schools, 20 games
UDallas (SCAC in 2011-12)	4 games
Rust	HPU at Rust
Guilford	McM at Guilford
Averett	McM at Guilford
Willamette	2 games (at UMHB and TLU (n)
Huntingdon	UTT at Huntingdon
LaGrange	UTT at LaGrange
UW-Platteville	at CTX
Beloit	at CTX

It is common in the ASC to play a D-1 team as a money game.  Several schools then use the "D-1" money to finance a "plane flight tourney".

[Titan Q]

Here is my best guess at the order the Pool C's were selected...

1. Williams (NE): .920/.558
2. Concordia (MW): .875/.501
3. WPI (NE): .846/.516
4. Virginia Wesleyan (S): .840/.506
5. Penn St-Behrend (GL): .885/.481
6. Oswego St (E): .852/.507
7. Becker (NE): .852/.505
8. Ramapo (Atl): .826/.507
9. Gwynedd-Mercy (Mid-Atl): .800/.502
10. Amherst (NE): .875/.464
11. UW-River Falls (W): .750/.585
12. Ithaca (E): .760/.547
13. Mary Hardin-Baylor (S): .750/.508
14. Western Conn (NE): .800/.531
15. Hanover (MW): .731/.542
16. Wittenberg (GL): .727/.552
17. Texas-Dallas (S): .800/.485
18. Illinois Wesleyan (MW): .692/.543


Left on the board, in the order of selection competitiveness (by my estimation):

* Carleton (W): .750/.528
* Ferrum (S): .800/.471
* St. Joseph's LI (Atl): .769/.504
* Wabash (GL): .760/.499
* Edgewood (MW): .692/.547
* Stevens (E): .731/.512
* Leb Valley (Mid Atl): .720/.509
* Eastern Conn (NE): .680/.526


(Obviously I have just listed winning % and SOS above.)

[RustCollege]

SOS is a big deal for the committee.  It has been for the decade plus I've been following d3.  It's probably more important, in my opinion, than it should be.

For IWU's sake, I hope the gave against River Falls is at least close.

The big problem with SOS is that in a vacuum, it means nothing.

Winning percentage doesn't mean a heckuva lot on it's own either.

The two need to be connected to each other and weighed against each other the same way every time. I know some people grumble about RPI's and computer rankings, but I would love it if D3 combined the WP and SOS in some mathmatical way, and then adjusted that based on head-to-head and vRRO and the like.

Exactly.  That's why I think it's overvalued.  I've said over and over, Becker doesn't deserve to be in the tournament.  They've got fantastic numbers, mostly because, if you plan it right, you can get a high SOS in the NE without actually beating anyone of note.A high SOS in the Midwest is a bit more impressive.

+1!  

But when you have a conference that is so large, and needs D-III games from inside the conference to fill a 25 game schedule so badly that you can never get the numbers to have a viable model, you need a person.  

Are the ASC SOS numbers really that unfair?

according to my sheet, which may be slightly off from the official NCAA calcs, they vary from 0.532 to 0.484 with an average of 0.506.

The NATHCON, for comparison (another large league, but in a well populated D3 area), varied from 0.536 to 0.457 with an average of 0.489.

Knightslappy,

Thanks for the response.  Can you share the link for the OWP/OOWP numbers?

Who is 0.532 and who is ..484?

This is what I have, which is not exactly the official numbers, but it's what I've been working with all year.



The ASC plays single round-robin inter-division and double round robin intra-division.  The West played 21 games; the East played 20 games.  Here are the non-conference D-III games by each team.  The in-region record is listed. (The Division, West or East, is listed before the school name. Neutral site = n.  Non-in-region = Italics.)
Division   Team OWP   In-region record  In-region D-3 foes.

W -  Howard Payne   0.532      6-18       at Rhodes, at Rust, at Austin College
E -  University of the Ozarks   0.525   5-18  Hendrix, at Birmingham-Southern, (at Covenant PY-2)
W -  Texas Lutheran     0.519    11-12  (played only 24 games) (n)Willamette, (n) ETBU/non-conference
W -  McMurry   0.517  20-6  at Guilford, (n) Averett
W -  Sul Ross State   0.516  7-14  None -- geographically, SRSU played  4 of the closest non D-3 schools near them, within 350 miles.
Hardin-Simmons   0.511  15-8   at Southwestern, (n) Trinity
Mary Hardin-Baylor   0.509  21-7   Southwestern, at Austin, Willamette, ETBU non-conference
Schreiner   0.503          10-14        at Trinity,  at Southwestern,   UDallas    
Texas-Tyler   0.500      12-12     (n) Huntingdon, at LaGrange (650 miles)
Mississippi College   0.500      11-11  at Millsaps (only played 24 games)
Concordia (Texas)   0.497       15-10  Southwestern,  UW-Platteville, Beloit  
East Texas Baptist   0.496       16-10  (n) UDallas, at Austin, at UMHB/non-conf, (n)Texas Lutheran/non-confLouisiana College   0.490       10-10  None (only 24 games)  Lacollege is the only D3 in the state of Louisiana
Texas-Dallas   0.488      21-5  (only played 24 games.  Ausitn College, at Austin, Stevenson, at UDallas
LeTourneau   0.484   at Austin, (n) UDallas, Hendrix, at Hendrix

Does Howard Payne get that OWP by playing 3 mediocre teams on the road?



The ASC plays single round-robin inter-division and double round robin intra-division.  The West played 21 games; the East played 20 games.  Here are the non-conference D-III games by each team.  The in-region record is listed. (The Division, West or East, is listed before the school name. Neutral site = n.  Non-in-region = Italics.)
Division   Team OWP   In-region record  In-region D-3 foes.

W -  Howard Payne   0.532      6-18       at Rhodes, at Rust, at Austin College
E -  University of the Ozarks   0.525   5-18  Hendrix, at Birmingham-Southern, (at Covenant PY-2)
W -  Texas Lutheran     0.519    11-12  (played only 24 games) (n)Willamette, (n) ETBU/non-conference
W -  McMurry   0.517  20-6  at Guilford, (n) Averett
W -  Sul Ross State   0.516  7-14  None -- geographically, SRSU played  4 of the closest non D-3 schools near them, within 350 miles.
W -  Hardin-Simmons   0.511  15-8   at Southwestern, (n) Trinity
W - Mary Hardin-Baylor   0.509  21-7   Southwestern, at Austin, Willamette, ETBU non-conference
W - Schreiner   0.503          10-14        at Trinity,  at Southwestern,   UDallas   
E- Texas-Tyler   0.500      12-12     (n) Huntingdon, at LaGrange (650 miles)
E- Mississippi College   0.500      11-11  at Millsaps (only played 24 games)
W - Concordia (Texas)   0.497       15-10  Southwestern,  UW-Platteville, Beloit 
E - East Texas Baptist   0.496       16-10  (n) UDallas, at Austin, at UMHB/non-conf, (n)TLU/non-conf
E - Louisiana College   0.490       10-10  None (only 24 games)  Lacollege is the only D3 in the state of Louisiana
E - Texas-Dallas   0.488      21-5  (only played 24 games.  Ausitn College, at Austin, Stevenson, at UDallas
E - LeTourneau   0.484   at Austin, (n) UDallas, Hendrix, at Hendrix

But i dont think Rust was or is mediocre you can ask Howard Payne that.....

[Pat Coleman]

Howard Payne was 6-18 according to that list. I don't know how Rust would prove non-mediocrity in that matchup.

[RustCollege]

Howard Payne was 6-18 according to that list. I don't know how Rust would prove non-mediocrity in that matchup.

Rust also played Webster

[Ralph Turner]

Rust beat HPU by 1 at home.

McMurry beat HPU by 20 at home and on the road.  That was my framework for stating that Rust (18-7) was mediocre.   

[RustCollege]

Rust beat HPU by 1 at home.

McMurry beat HPU by 20 at home and on the road.  That was my framework for stating that Rust (18-7) was mediocre.   

It be like that sometimes well when next season come around come watch Rust play thats all i ask

[Ralph Turner]

Rust beat HPU by 1 at home.

McMurry beat HPU by 20 at home and on the road.  That was my framework for stating that Rust (18-7) was mediocre.  

It be like that sometimes well when next season come around come watch Rust play thats all i ask

I thought that Rust put together a very good schedule for an independent who is a long way from a lot of schools.

Getting HPU to play you (and Rhodes) was very good, for both teams.

[RustCollege]

Rust beat HPU by 1 at home.

McMurry beat HPU by 20 at home and on the road.  That was my framework for stating that Rust (18-7) was mediocre.  

It be like that sometimes well when next season come around come watch Rust play thats all i ask

I thought that Rust put together a very good schedule for an independent who is a long way from a lot of schools.

Getting HPU to play you (and Rhodes) was very good, for both teams.

yea it is but i just wish we can get Miss College would play a home and home with Rust

[smedindy]

I think some people are forgetting that D3 Championships are about access not necessarily quality. 

Oh, I'm all for access for the Pool A's. If you have a legit conference, you deserve a bid.

The "C"'s though should be quality.

[nwhoops1903]

I think some people are forgetting that D3 Championships are about access not necessarily quality.  

Oh, I'm all for access for the Pool A's. If you have a legit conference, you deserve a bid.

The "C"'s though should be quality.

THE NCAA's CORE PURPOSE IS TO govern competition in a fair, safe, equitable and sportsmanlike manner, and to integrate intercollegiate athletics into higher education so that the educational experience of the student-athlete is paramount.  

Can we somehow hold them to the mission statement in funding the D3 tournaments?  Fairness and equity are not existent in our tourney until the Final Four.   Selecting a team(s) to play 4 home games is competitively UNFAIR and UNEQUITABLE.  The NCAA can and should make an effort to expand ITS OWN CORE PURPOSE from 4 games to at least the final 16 games of the D3 tournaments under new President Mark Emmert.  

He states, "Behaviors that undermine the collegiate model wherever they occur are a threat to those basic values, and we can't tolerate them. If we believe in those values, we need to be ready to defend them, and if we don't, we have to be ready to accept the criticism that comes from not doing so.  During the next few months, I will work with NCAA presidential groups in all three divisions to propose rules that close glaring loopholes and begin to align behaviors with our values."

Neutral site round 3 and 4 games can be planned and located to easily allow four (4) team fan bases to travel instead of the current UNFAIR and UNEQUITABLE three (3) fan bases.  Using the current hosting process, these sites could be announced at the release of the bracket.  This would allow for travel planning to begin much earlier for potential teams, students, and fan bases.  No one can effectively argue that playing at home has no advantage.  Busing and lodging 4 more teams (16 vs 12) is not a significant increase in expense and the potential for a more lucrative gate and larger venues could offset the 25% added expense.

[Ralph Turner]

I think some people are forgetting that D3 Championships are about access not necessarily quality.  

Oh, I'm all for access for the Pool A's. If you have a legit conference, you deserve a bid.

The "C"'s though should be quality.

THE NCAA's CORE PURPOSE IS TO govern competition in a fair, safe, equitable and sportsmanlike manner, and to integrate intercollegiate athletics into higher education so that the educational experience of the student-athlete is paramount.  

Can we somehow hold them to the mission statement in funding the D3 tournaments?  Fairness and equity are not existent in our tourney until the Final Four.   Selecting a team(s) to play 4 home games is competitively UNFAIR and UNEQUITABLE.  The NCAA can and should make an effort to expand ITS OWN CORE PURPOSE from 4 games to at least the final 16 games of the D3 tournaments under new President Mark Emmert.  

He states, "Behaviors that undermine the collegiate model wherever they occur are a threat to those basic values, and we can't tolerate them. If we believe in those values, we need to be ready to defend them, and if we don't, we have to be ready to accept the criticism that comes from not doing so.  During the next few months, I will work with NCAA presidential groups in all three divisions to propose rules that close glaring loopholes and begin to align behaviors with our values."

Neutral site round 3 and 4 games can be planned and located to easily allow four (4) team fan bases to travel instead of the current UNFAIR and UNEQUITABLE three (3) fan bases.  Using the current hosting process, these sites could be announced at the release of the bracket.  This would allow for travel planning to begin much earlier for potential teams, students, and fan bases.  No one can effectively argue that playing at home has no advantage.  Busing and lodging 4 more teams (16 vs 12) is not a significant increase in expense and the potential for a more lucrative gate and larger venues could offset the 25% added expense.

In every sport,  yes, it becomes a significant increase.

Ballpark costs for a travel group of 20 for an NCAA playoff game.  (I am uncertain about the current per diem rules.)

15 hotel rooms ($100/night each in west Texas.  How much in St Louis or Chicago?  $150?)  =  $1500 - $2250
Charter Bus miles are now in the $5-7/mile range times  avg. 600 miles round trip = $3000 - $4200
Per diem $75 per person for a party of 20 for 3 days = $4500
Total = $9050 - $10250
Times 3 three teams  =  $27150 - $30750



Plane flight for the fourth

Rooms = $1500 - $2250
Local Transportation Charter 200 miles at $5-7/ mile =   $1000-1400
Per diem $75 per peson for a party of 20 for 3 days =            $4500
Plane flight $400 per person for 20 = $8000
Total  =  $14000- $16150

Expenses for using 16 neutral sites (just beginning to consider the expenses)

Practice facility rentals at a new site for 4 teams = X
Facility rental for the tourney = Y
Extra team traveling = $10250 - $10950
Sicteen extra teams traveling = $164,000 - $175,200
Extra expenses for using neutral sites times 16?
For every sport across D-III...  =  $ Big bucks

I sure do hope that the next March Madness Contract can bring in more money that will trickle down to D-III.
I will appreciate any corrections to these numbers and assumptions. 

[Pat Coleman]

The neutral site thing has been talked about, but there's a problem in that there's not actually a lot of interest among Division III schools in bidding on hosting an event they won't be participating in. I would say baseball does this successfully, but even then most of the host schools have teams with hopes of making the regionals.

Also, I would say hosting an event in May is easier than in mid-March because the baseball playoffs don't overlap with the regular season in other sports.

[nwhoops1903]

Ralph:  It isn't 16 extra teams traveling if we are talking rounds 3 and 4, It is 4.

Pat:  Lack of interest is sad and disappointing.  Should be a win win in it somehow.  Besides, what comes around goes around, pay it forward....all apply.

[dahlby]

Bidding as a neutral site host results in lower bids for the NCAA because of the unknown home town attendance, if the bidder does not make the playoffs. It would be interesting to have data from a school that hosted  a non-participating neutral playoff versus when they hosted a playoff where that school participated. Schools don't want to lose money on hosting (when you consider the guarantee paid to the NCAA) so the bid would be naturally lower.