Pool C

[KnightSlappy]

... For a lock to truly be a lock, we've got to think about a perfect storm situation where everybody on this list gets upset.  After these 12, who would even be on the board?

Right, that's why I only named 12. Next up would be (not necessarily in order):

Rhode Island College
UW-RF
UW-SP
Wash U.

I'm less comfortable with calling these teams "locks", though they're all pretty much certain to be in at this point.

Maybe put in Western Conn for RIC based on the last rankings. Gosh, but probably not becasue RIC just beat them. Shrug.

[KnightSlappy]

Hugenerd, what do you think the NE looks like at this point?

Amherst
Middlebury
MIT
RIC
W. Conn
E. Conn/WPI
E. Conn/WPI
Albertus Magnus/Wesleyan/Keene St.

[Knightstalker]

Richard Stockton has 6 in-region losses.  Overall losses don't matter.  I would put them ahead of WPI because they have the same amount of losses, but I'm pretty sure RS has played more regionally ranked opponents.  At this time, RS is #4 and WPI is #7.  More teams to go through before WPI even makes the table.

When the final regional rankings come out William Paterson will be ranked higher than Stockton, Stockton' and any NJAC team not coached by Jose Rembibas will have to win the NJAC tournament to see the NCAA's.

[Greek Tragedy]

I will be sure to be more prepared prior to posting!  . I do appreciated the corrections though.  In my defense, I did state my opinions based on "a quick look" with "initial thoughts based on the (current) regional rankings."

I incorrectly thought RS had played more games against regionally ranked opponents because I saw that both William Paterson and NJCU were regionally ranked and I knew Stevens Point had played them as well.  Off the top of my head, I could only think of MIT as WPI's ranked opponent.  Admittedly, I didn't have time to scroll through their schedules.  I also forgot that the NJAC has two divisions, cutting the number of times RS played William Paterson (and NJCU?).

I do think things will be a lot clearer next week with only conference tournament games remaining, aside from the UAA.

[7express]

Whoever loses tomorrow between RIC and Keene state is out of the pool C picture, especially if it's RIC.  granted, Keene does have the win over Middlebury, but losing 3 straight to end the year when you were 2 games up with 3 games to play looks bad.  If Western somehow manages to lose to Plymouth state againat home we should be out of it as well.

[KnightSlappy]

Whoever loses tomorrow between RIC and Keene state is out of the pool C picture, especially if it's RIC.  granted, Keene does have the win over Middlebury, but losing 3 straight to end the year when you were 2 games up with 3 games to play looks bad.  If Western somehow manages to lose to Plymouth state again at home we should be out of it as well.

RIC is darn near a lock right now. It would definitely hurt them, but wouldn't knock them out. They'll have one of the top five SOS's of any of the Pool C candidates. A mid .700s WP wouldn't knock them out either.

They'd still be in ahead of WPI, who I think is a strong Pool C candidate.

For Keene... maybe it does knock them out. Onto the bubble, at least.

[John Gleich]

... For a lock to truly be a lock, we've got to think about a perfect storm situation where everybody on this list gets upset.  After these 12, who would even be on the board?

Right, that's why I only named 12. Next up would be (not necessarily in order):

Rhode Island College
UW-RF
UW-SP
Wash U.

I'm less comfortable with calling these teams "locks", though they're all pretty much certain to be in at this point.

Maybe put in Western Conn for RIC based on the last rankings. Gosh, but probably not becasue RIC just beat them. Shrug.

Are you basing these locks purely on numbers or are you taking into account regional rankings?

B/C, as I said, Whitworth and Whitewater are currently below UWSP and UWRF in the West... as is Transylvania behind Wash U in the MW.

That's a moot point... if Wash U wins 2 of their next three or on Saturday against NYU, they'll have the UAA A bid locked up.


I didn't look at the other regions to see if any locks would be below non-locks... but that could really be an issue.  If they're third or fourth in a region behind a non-lock, they could be in trouble.


... I fully acknowledge that these aren't the final rankings... and the locks may move above the non-locks.

It's just something to watch out for.

[KnightSlappy]

... For a lock to truly be a lock, we've got to think about a perfect storm situation where everybody on this list gets upset.  After these 12, who would even be on the board?

Right, that's why I only named 12. Next up would be (not necessarily in order):

Rhode Island College
UW-RF
UW-SP
Wash U.

I'm less comfortable with calling these teams "locks", though they're all pretty much certain to be in at this point.

Maybe put in Western Conn for RIC based on the last rankings. Gosh, but probably not becasue RIC just beat them. Shrug.

Are you basing these locks purely on numbers or are you taking into account regional rankings?

B/C, as I said, Whitworth and Whitewater are currently below UWSP and UWRF in the West... as is Transylvania behind Wash U in the MW.

That's a moot point... if Wash U wins 2 of their next three or on Saturday against NYU, they'll have the UAA A bid locked up.


I didn't look at the other regions to see if any locks would be below non-locks... but that could really be an issue.  If they're third or fourth in a region behind a non-lock, they could be in trouble.


... I fully acknowledge that these aren't the final rankings... and the locks may move above the non-locks.

It's just something to watch out for.

Basing it just on the numbers, but keep in mind that UWSP and UWRF both have suffered losses since the last rankings came out. Not inconceivable that WW and UW-W coud have "moved up" ahead of UWSP and UWRF.

The premise is for teams to lose out and still be locks. For Wash U, that would mean three consecutive losses. For Transylvania, it would mean only two losses.

[John Gleich]

... For a lock to truly be a lock, we've got to think about a perfect storm situation where everybody on this list gets upset.  After these 12, who would even be on the board?

Right, that's why I only named 12. Next up would be (not necessarily in order):

Rhode Island College
UW-RF
UW-SP
Wash U.

I'm less comfortable with calling these teams "locks", though they're all pretty much certain to be in at this point.

Maybe put in Western Conn for RIC based on the last rankings. Gosh, but probably not becasue RIC just beat them. Shrug.

Are you basing these locks purely on numbers or are you taking into account regional rankings?

B/C, as I said, Whitworth and Whitewater are currently below UWSP and UWRF in the West... as is Transylvania behind Wash U in the MW.

That's a moot point... if Wash U wins 2 of their next three or on Saturday against NYU, they'll have the UAA A bid locked up.


I didn't look at the other regions to see if any locks would be below non-locks... but that could really be an issue.  If they're third or fourth in a region behind a non-lock, they could be in trouble.


... I fully acknowledge that these aren't the final rankings... and the locks may move above the non-locks.

It's just something to watch out for.

Basing it just on the numbers, but keep in mind that UWSP and UWRF both have suffered losses since the last rankings came out. Not inconceivable that WW and UW-W coud have "moved up" ahead of UWSP and UWRF.

The premise is for teams to lose out and still be locks. For Wash U, that would mean three consecutive losses. For Transylvania, it would mean only two losses.

It's not necessarily an apples-to-apples comparison... but Whitewater lost last week and stayed at #3 even though Whitworth won.  It's certainly possible that one or both could move to either 1 or 2... but it doesn't seem that likely at this point.

There's a lot of basketball to be played between now and Wednesday.  If Whitewater loses on Saturday, they're going to have to turn right back around and play on Tuesday.  Should they lose that, they likely would slide below Whitworth.

If River Falls loses, it depends on if Point beats Eau Claire to determine who plays on Tuesday.  With a Point win, RF would have to turn around and play on Tuesday.  With a Point loss, RF would become the #2 seed and Point would have to play on Tuesday.


If history is a good guide, that Tuesday game will be tough... and the tournament as a whole doesn't bode well for that #3 seed.



I can foresee a potential situation where Whitewater would leap over Point... but it would include at least one, if not two losses due to their head to head result.

I don't really see a situation where Whitworth could leap over all three before the next poll.




.... Actually, I've been giving misinformation.  The WIAC changed the timing of the tournament this year... instead of Tue/Thurs/Sat, now it's Wed/Fri/Sun.

So the chances of any monumental moves in the West before the next regional rankings aren't tremendous in my opinion... at this point.  After tomorrow, it could be a different case!

[Greek Tragedy]

So would someone be so kind to post a link to where I can find the SOS, OWP and OOWP.  Thanks!

[Hugenerd]

So would someone be so kind to post a link to where I can find the SOS, OWP and OOWP.  Thanks!

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

Bottom of page.

Hugenerd, what do you think the NE looks like at this point?

Amherst
Middlebury
MIT
RIC
W. Conn
E. Conn/WPI
E. Conn/WPI
Albertus Magnus/Wesleyan/Keene St.

That looks about right, I would personally but WPI and Albertus Magnus above East Conn. If Middlebury loses in their conference tourney, and MIT wins theirs, I think MIT has a shot at #2 also.

[Greek Tragedy]

UPDATING

HERE IS THE REGIONAL RANKINGS FOR WEEK 2 WITH THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULES AND RESULTS SO FAR

TEAMS IN BOLD ARE CONFERENCE LEADERS

ATL
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL	SCHEDULE
#1	#2	William Paterson**	NJAC	21-3, 21-3	WON vs CCNY 75-49
#2	#1	Staten Island	CUNYAC	18-2, 19-4	WON at St. Joseph's (Bklyn) 76-54
#3	#3	St. Joseph's (LI)	SKY	19-2, 19-3	WON at SUNY-Old Westbury 102-81, at SUNY-Purchase 2/18
#4	#4	Richard Stockton**	NJAC	16-6, 17-7	WON at Kean 80-77
#5	#5	New Jersey City	NJAC	15-5, 17-6	LOST vs Rutgers-Newark 55-51
EAST
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	Hartwick	E8	21-2, 22-2	vs Stevens 2/18
#2	#2	Oswego State	SUNYAC	19-2, 19-3	WON vs Geneseo St. 67-56, WON vs Buffalo St. 78-73, vs Fredonia St. 2/18
#3	#4	Hobart	LL	18-4, 19-4	WON at Bard 65-48, at Vassar 2/18
#4	#3	NYU	UAA	18-4, 18-4	WON vs Chicago 79-69, vs Washington U. 2/19
#5	#5	Medaille	AMCC	20-2, 21-2	WON vs D'Youville, vs La Roche 2/18
#6	#6	Nazareth	E8	16-6, 16-8	at St. John Fisher 2/18
GR. LK.
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	Hope	MIAA	14-0, 22-1	WON at Olivet 75-60, vs Trine 2/18
#2	#2	Wittenberg	NCAC	16-4, 18-5	WON at DePauw 56-55, vs Hiram 2/18
#3	#3	Wooster	NCAC	17-4, 19-4	WON vs Allegheny 91-61, vs DePauw 2/18
#4	#4	Ohio Wesleyan	NCAC	16-6, 17-6	WON at Wabash 82-81, Denison 2/18
#5	#5	Wabash	NCAC	15-6, 17-6	LOST vs Ohio Wesleyan 82-81, at Oberlin 2/18
#6	N/A	Bethany (W.Va.)	PrAC	19-2, 20-3	WON vs Westminster (Pa.) 91-65, at St. Vincent 2/18
		DROPPING OUT
	#6	Capital	OAC	14-7, 15-8
MID.ATL
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	Cabrini	CSAC	23-0, 23-1	WON at Keystone 96-85
#2	#2	Keystone	CSAC	20-4, 20-4	LOST vs Cabrini 96-85
#3	#5	Franklin & Marshall	CC	21-2, 21-2	WON at Johns Hopkins 71-63, at Dickinson 2/18
#4	#4	Mary Washington*	CAC	15-5, 16-7	WON vs Stevenson 94-59, at Wesley 2/18
#5	#6	St. Mary's (Md)*	CAC	16-5, 18-6	vs Frostburg State 2/18
#6	#7	Messiah	MACC	15-6, 16-6	WON at Alvernia 57-54, vs Elizabethtown 2/18
#7	#8	Misericordia	MACF	17-6, 17-6	WON vs King's 60-53, at Manhattanville 2/18
#8	N/A	Widener	MACC	13-6, 17-6	WON vs Lebanon Valley 91-70, at Albright 2/18
#9	#3	Lycoming	MACC	15-6, 17-7	WON at Elizabethtown 69-68, vs Alvernia 2/18
		DROPPING OUT
	#9	Alvernia	MACC	14-7, 16-7
MW
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	Washington U.	UAA	17-4, 17-5	LOST at Brandeis 79-69, at NYU 2/19
#2	#3	Lake Forest	MWC	18-2, 19-2	WON vs Knox 64-50, at Grinnell 2/18
#3	#2	Transylvania	HCAC	20-1, 21-2	WON at Hanover 74-65, at Bluffton 2/18
#4	#4	Wheaton (IL)	CCIW	16-5, 18-5	vs North Park 2/18
#5	#5	North Central (IL)	CCIW	15-5, 16-7	WON at North Park 75-49, vs Millikin 2/18
#6	#6	Illinois Wesleyan	CCIW	15-6, 17-6	WON at Millikin 84-45, vs Elmhurst 2/18
#7	N/A	Hanover	HCAC	16-5, 16-6	LOST vs Transylvania 74-65, at Rose-Hulman 2/18
#8	#7	Edgewood	NATH	16-5, 18-5	LOST at Concordia (WI) 69-66, vs Concordia (IL) 2/18
		DROPPING OUT
	#8	Concordia (WI)	NATH	17-4, 18-4
NE
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	Amherst	NESCAC	20-2, 22-2	vs Hamilton 2/18
#2	#2	Middlebury	NESCAC	20-2, 22-2	vs Williams 2/18
#3	#4	W. Connecticut	LEC	19-4, 19-4	LOST at Rhode Island College 79-78, vs Plymouth State 2/18
#4	#7	MIT	NEWMAC	22-1, 22-1	WON at WPI 71-66
#5	#8	Keene State*	LEC	15-4, 18-5	LOST vs Eastern Connecticut 65-62, at Rhode Island College 2/18
#6	#3	Rhode Island College	LEC	18-5, 18-5	WON Western Connecticut 79-78, vs Keene State 2/18
#7	#5	WPI	NEWMAC	17-5, 17-5	LOST vs MIT 71-66, vs Clark 2/18
#8	#9	Wesleyan (Conn)	NESCAC	19-4, 19-5	vs Bowdoin 2/18
#9	#6	E. Connecticut*	LEC	18-5, 18-5	WON at Keene State 65-62, at Mass-Boston 2/18
#10	#12	Albertus Magnus	GNAC	22-1, 22-1	WON at Johnson and Wales 87-73, vs St. Joseph's (Maine) 2/18
#11	#11	Becker	NECC	19-4, 19-4	WON at Wheelock 74 -69, at Mitchell 2/18
#12	#10	Tufts	NESCAC	16-7, 16-7	vs Bates 2/18
SOUTH
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	Mary Hardin-Baylor	ASC	21-1, 22-1	WON vs Schreiner 79-74, at Texas Lutheran 2/18
#2	#2	Virginia Wesleyan	ODAC	18-3, 19-3	WON at Lynchburg 73-62, vs Emory and Henry 2/18, vs Washington and Lee 2/19
#3	#4	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	16-3, 19-4	at hampden-Sydney 2/18
#4	#3	Birmingham-Southern	SCAC	19-1, 22-1	WON at Berry 69-58, vs Oglethorpe 2/18
#5	#6	Emory	UAA	18-4, 18-4	LOST at Carnegie Mellon 82-79, at Case Western Reserve 2/19
#6	#5	Christopher Newport	USAC	16-4, 19-4	WON at Shenandoah 69-60, vs Averett 2/18
#7	#7	Guilford	ODAC	15-6, 16-7	at Eastern Mennonite 2/18
#8	#8	Hardin-Simmons	ASC	15-6, 17-6	WON vs Sul Ross State 94-74, vs Howard Payne 2/18
WEST
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	River Falls*	WIAC	18-3, 18-5	LOST at La Crosse 74-66, vs Whitewater 2/18
#2	#2	Stevens Point*	WIAC	17-4, 19-4	LOST vs Stout 67-64 OT, at Eau Claire 2/18
#3	#3	Whitewater*	WIAC	20-3, 20-3	WON vs Oshkosh 76-64, at River Falls 2/18
#4	#4	Whitworth	NWC	19-2, 20-3	WON at Whitman 81-74, vs Willamette 2/18
#5	#5	CMS	SCIAC	15-1, 21-1	WON at Cal Lutheran 57-46, at Occidental 2/18
#6	#7	Gustavus Adolphus	MIAC	17-5, 18-5	WON at Concordia-Moorhead, vs Bethel 2/18
#7	#6	St. Thomas	MIAC	15-6, 16-6	WON at Bethel 69-55, vs St. Mary's (MN) 2/18
#8	#9	Whitman	NWC	15-6, 17-6	LOST vs Whitworth 81-74, vs Willamette 2/17
#9	N/A	Puget Sound	NWC	13-5, 18-5	at Lewis and Clarke 2/17, at Linfield 2/18
		DROPPING OUT
	#8	Dubuque	IIAC	15-5, 16-8

[Greek Tragedy]

So would someone be so kind to post a link to where I can find the SOS, OWP and OOWP.  Thanks!

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

Bottom of page.

Thanks.  Funny, I found that page, but didn't know those links down at the bottom were for SOS and OWP!  Oops.

[John Gleich]

So... I anticipate a pretty big shake-up in the West as Point and River Falls drop both of their contests this week.

Whitewater will undoubtably move to #1 and Whitworth probably to #2.  It's entirely possible that CMS will jump over one or both of Stevens Point and River Falls

[Just Bill]

Midwest is a mess too.

Wash U., Transy, Lake Forest and Edgewood all go 1-1. Hanover goes 0-2. CUW who dropped out last week goes 2-0 including a win over Edgewood. Only the three CCIW teams get through unscathed. We'll see if Augustana can get into the ranking this week as well.