Pool C

[Greek Tragedy]

UPDATED THROUGH SATURDAY'S GAMES.  ITS GOING TO BE A MESS NEXT WEEK!

ATL
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL	REC	SCHEDULE
#1	#2	William Paterson**	NJAC	21-3, 21-3	1-0	WON vs CCNY 75-49
#2	#1	Staten Island	CUNYAC	18-2, 19-4	2-0	WON at St. Joseph's (Bklyn) 76-54, WON vs John Jay 85-65
#3	#3	St. Joseph's (LI)	SKY	19-2, 19-3	2-0	WON at SUNY-Old Westbury 102-81, WON at SUNY-Purchase 92-89
#4	#4	Richard Stockton**	NJAC	16-6, 17-7	1-0	WON at Kean 80-77
#5	#5	New Jersey City	NJAC	15-5, 17-6	0-1	LOST vs Rutgers-Newark 55-51; SEASON COMPLETE
EAST
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	Hartwick	E8	21-2, 22-2	1-0	WON vs Stevens 91-76
#2	#2	Oswego State	SUNYAC	19-2, 19-3	3-0	WON vs Geneseo St. 67-56, vs WON vs Buffalo St. 78-73,WON vs Fredonia St. 75-44
#3	#4	Hobart	LL	18-4, 19-4	2-0	WON at Bard 65-48, WON at Vassar 69-43
#4	#3	NYU	UAA	18-4, 18-4	1-0*	WON vs Chicago 79-69, vs Washington U. 2/19
#5	#5	Medaille	AMCC	20-2, 21-2	2-0	WON vs D'Youville 83-82, WON vs La Roche 77-70
#6	#6	Nazareth	E8	16-6, 16-8	1-0	WON at St. John Fisher 68-62 OT
GR. LK.
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	Hope	MIAA	14-0, 22-1	2-0	WON at Olivet 75-60, vs WON vs Trine 65-46
#2	#2	Wittenberg	NCAC	16-4, 18-5	2-0	WON at DePauw 56-55, WON vs Hiram 72-50
#3	#3	Wooster	NCAC	17-4, 19-4	2-0	WON vs Allegheny 91-61, WON vs DePauw 74-67
#4	#4	Ohio Wesleyan	NCAC	16-6, 17-6	2-0	WON at Wabash 82-81, WON vs Denison 83-77
#5	#5	Wabash	NCAC	15-6, 17-6	1-1	LOST vs Ohio Wesleyan 82-81, WON at Oberlin 69-32
#6	N/A	Bethany (W.Va.)	PrAC	19-2, 20-3	2-0	WON vs Westminster (Pa.) 91-65, WON at St. Vincent 76-64
		DROPPING OUT
	#6	Capital	OAC	14-7, 15-8
MID.ATL
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	Cabrini	CSAC	23-0, 23-1	1-0	WON at Keystone 96-85
#2	#2	Keystone	CSAC	20-4, 20-4	0-1	LOST vs Cabrini 96-85
#3	#5	Franklin & Marshall	CC	21-2, 21-2	2-0	WON at Johns Hopkins 71-63, WON at Dickinson 63-53
#4	#4	Mary Washington*	CAC	15-5, 16-7	1-1	WON vs Stevenson 94-59, LOST at Wesley 73-70
#5	#6	St. Mary's (Md)*	CAC	16-5, 18-6	1-0	WON vs Frostburg State 95-81
#6	#7	Messiah	MACC	15-6, 16-6	2-0	WON at Alvernia 57-54, WON vs Elizabethtown 72-47
#7	#8	Misericordia	MACF	17-6, 17-6	2-0	WON vs King's 60-53, WON at Manhattanville 77-71
#8	N/A	Widener	MACC	13-6, 17-6	1-1	WON vs Lebanon Valley 91-70, LOST at Albright 87-68
#9	#3	Lycoming	MACC	15-6, 17-7	1-1	WON at Elizabethtown 69-68, LOST vs Alvernia 68-60
		DROPPING OUT
	#9	Alvernia	MACC	14-7, 16-7
MW
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	Washington U.	UAA	17-4, 17-5	0-1*	LOST at Brandeis 79-69, at NYU 2/19
#2	#3	Lake Forest	MWC	18-2, 19-2	1-1	WON vs Knox 64-50, LOST at Grinnell 112-101
#3	#2	Transylvania	HCAC	20-1, 21-2	1-1	WON at Hanover 74-65, LOST at Bluffton 83-65
#4	#4	Wheaton (IL)	CCIW	16-5, 18-5	1-0	WON vs North Park 75-59
#5	#5	North Central (IL)	CCIW	15-5, 16-7	2-0	WON at North Park 75-49, WON vs Millikin 91-58
#6	#6	Illinois Wesleyan	CCIW	15-6, 17-6	2-0	WON at Millikin 84-45, WON vs Elmhurst 79-60
#7	N/A	Hanover	HCAC	16-5, 16-6	0-2	LOST vs Transylvania 74-65, LOST at Rose-Hulman 75-61
#8	#7	Edgewood	NATH	16-5, 18-5	1-1	LOST at Concordia (WI) 69-66, WON vs Concordia (IL) 74-62
		DROPPING OUT
	#8	Concordia (WI)	NATH	17-4, 18-4
NE
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	Amherst	NESCAC	20-2, 22-2	1-0	WON vs Hamilton 86-66
#2	#2	Middlebury	NESCAC	20-2, 22-2	1-0	WON vs Williams 73-61
#3	#4	W. Connecticut	LEC	19-4, 19-4	1-1	LOST at Rhode Island College 79-78, WON vs Plymouth State 90-70
#4	#7	MIT	NEWMAC	22-1, 22-1	1-0	WON at WPI 71-66
#5	#8	Keene State*	LEC	15-4, 18-5	0-2	LOST vs Eastern Connecticut 65-62, LOST at Rhode Island College 65-57
#6	#3	Rhode Island College	LEC	18-5, 18-5	2-0	WON Western Connecticut 79-78, WON vs Keene State 65-57
#7	#5	WPI	NEWMAC	17-5, 17-5	1-1	LOST vs MIT 71-66, WON vs Clark 75-54
#8	#9	Wesleyan (Conn)	NESCAC	19-4, 19-5	1-0	WON vs Bowdoin 78-59
#9	#6	E. Connecticut*	LEC	18-5, 18-5	2-0	WON at Keene State 65-62, WON at Mass-Boston 76-68
#10	#12	Albertus Magnus	GNAC	22-1, 22-1	2-0	WON at Johnson and Wales 87-73, WON vs St. Joseph's (Maine) 75-62
#11	#11	Becker	NECC	19-4, 19-4	2-0	WON at Wheelock 74 -69, WON at Mitchell 87-49
#12	#10	Tufts	NESCAC	16-7, 16-7	0-1	LOST vs Bates 57-54
SOUTH
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	Mary Hardin-Baylor	ASC	21-1, 22-1	2-0	WON vs Schreiner 79-74, WON at Texas Lutheran 60-53
#2	#2	Virginia Wesleyan	ODAC	18-3, 19-3	2-0*	WON at Lynchburg 73-62, WON vs Emory and Henry 84-60, vs Washington and Lee 2/19
#3	#4	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	16-3, 19-4	0-1	LOST at Hampden-Sydney 79-71
#4	#3	Birmingham-Southern	SCAC	19-1, 22-1	2-0	WON at Berry 69-58, WON vs Oglethorpe 92-80
#5	#6	Emory	UAA	18-4, 18-4	0-1*	LOST at Carnegie Mellon 82-79, at Case Western Reserve 2/19
#6	#5	Christopher Newport	USAC	16-4, 19-4	2-0	WON at Shenandoah 69-60, WON vs Averett 99-95
#7	#7	Guilford	ODAC	15-6, 16-7	0-1	LOST at Eastern Mennonite 62-61
#8	#8	Hardin-Simmons	ASC	15-6, 17-6	2-0	WON vs Sul Ross State 94-74, WON vs Howard Payne 82-70
WEST
WK2	WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	#1	River Falls*	WIAC	18-3, 18-5	0-2	LOST at La Crosse 74-66, LOST vs Whitewater 55-53
#2	#2	Stevens Point*	WIAC	17-4, 19-4	0-2	LOST vs Stout 67-64 OT, LOST at Eau Claire 77-58
#3	#3	Whitewater*	WIAC	20-3, 20-3	2-0	WON vs Oshkosh 76-64, WON at River Falls 55-53
#4	#4	Whitworth	NWC	19-2, 20-3	2-0	WON at Whitman 81-74, WON vs Willamette 93-65
#5	#5	CMS	SCIAC	15-1, 21-1	2-0	WON at Cal Lutheran 57-46, WON at Occidental 55-47
#6	#7	Gustavus Adolphus	MIAC	17-5, 18-5	1-1	WON at Concordia-Moorhead, LOST vs Bethel 68-52
#7	#6	St. Thomas	MIAC	15-6, 16-6	2-0	WON at Bethel 69-55, WON vs St. Mary's (MN) 70-40
#8	#9	Whitman	NWC	15-6, 17-6	1-1	LOST vs Whitworth 81-74, WON vs Willamette 103-71
#9	N/A	Puget Sound	NWC	13-5, 18-5	1-1	LOST at Lewis and Clarke 78-72, WON at Linfield 80-67
		DROPPING OUT
	#8	Dubuque	IIAC	15-5, 16-8

[Greek Tragedy]

Just using teams currently in the Regional Rankings


LOCKS?
William Paterson
Staten Island
St. Joseph's (RI)
Hartwick
Oswego State
Hope
Franklin & Marshall
Amherst
Middlebury
MIT
Albertus Magnus
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Virginia Wesleyan
Birmingham Southern
Whitewater
Whitworth
CMS

GOOD BETS
Hobart
NYU
Medaille
Wittenberg
Wooster
Cabrini
Keystone
Washington U.
Lake Forest
Transylvania
Wheaton (IL)
North Central
W. Connecticut
Rhode Island College
Randolph-Macon
Emory
Christopher Newport
River Falls
St. Thomas

ON THE BUBBLE
Richard Stockton
Nazareth
Ohio Wesleyan
Bethany Lutheran
St. Mary's (Md)
Messiah
Misericordia
Illinois Wesleyan
Keene State
WPI
Wesleyan (Conn)
E. Connecticut
Becker
Guilford
Hardin-Simmons
Stevens Point
Gustavus Adolphus

LOOKING IN
NJCU
Wabash
Widener
Lycoming
Hanover
Edgewood
Tufts
Whitman
Puget Sound

[KnightSlappy]

So... I anticipate a pretty big shake-up in the West as Point and River Falls drop both of their contests this week.

Whitewater will undoubtably move to #1 and Whitworth probably to #2.  It's entirely possible that CMS will jump over one or both of Stevens Point and River Falls

I think CMS stays at 5. Either way though, UWSP still looks closer to a lock than a bubble team to me.

[Greek Tragedy]

Several reasons I have River Falls "a good bet" and Stevens Point "a bubble team" is because one of the Falcon's losses this week was to Whitewater, a regionally ranked opponent.  In addition, River Falls started ahead of Point in the rankings and River Falls swept Point in the regular season.  As the WIAC tourney is set up, RF and Point could meet for a 3rd time.  Obviously, that will go a long way.  On a side note, it looks like potential All Conference player and point guard for the Pointers, Tyler Tillema, could be out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury suffered in their loss against Stout.  He did not play in the season finale and it showed.

[Titan Q]

Thanks for keeping track of the results, GT!.  Here is how I look at it...


"Bubble Bursters" (Currents A's who would be C locks)
1. Cabrini (Mid-Atl, CSAC), 24-0
2. Hope (GL, MIAA), 16-0
3. Albertus Magnus (NE, GNAC), 24-1
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (South, ASC), 23-1
5. MIT (NE, NEWMAC), 23-1
6. UW-Whitewater (West, WIAC), 22-3
7. Birmingham Southern (South, SCAC), 21-1
8. Amherst (NE, NESCAC), 21-2
9. Whitworth (West, NWC), 21-2
10. CMS (West, SCIAC), 17-1
11. Franklin & Marshall (Mid-Atl, CC), 23-2
12. William Paterson (Atlantic, NJAC), 22-3
13. Hartwick (East, E8), 22-3
14. Oswego St (East, SUNYAC), 22-3
15. Medaille (East, AMCC), 22-2
16. Virginia Wesleyan (South, ODAC), 20-3
17. Staten Island (Atlantic, CUNYAC), 20-2
18. Transylvania (Midwest, HCAC), 21-2
19. Bethany (GL, PrAC), 22-2
20. St. Joseph's (Atlantic, Sky), 21-2
21. Lake Forest (Midwest, MWC), 19-3
22. Wittenberg (GL, NCAC), 18-4

(For every team on this list that does not win a Pool C bid, start clipping off the bottom of my Pool C list below).


Current Pool A's That are Regionally Ranked But are Not Pool C Locks (would go into the middle of the C mix below)
Becker (NE, NECC), 21-4
Hobart (East, LL), 20-4
East Connecticut (NE, LEC), 20-5
Misericordia (Mid-Atl, MACF), 19-6
Christopher Newport (South, USAC), 18-4
Washington U (Midwest, UAA), 18-5
North Central (Midwest, CCIW), 17-5
St. Thomas (West, MIAC), 17-6
Messiah (Atl, MACC), 17-6
St. Mary's, MD (Mid-Atl, CAC), 16-6
Concordia, WI (Midwest, NathC), 19-4 - should get back in MW this week


Current Pool C's
1. Middlebury (NE, NESCAC), 21-2 (NE C #1)
2. New York U (East, UAA), 20-4 (East C #1)
3. Wooster (GL, NCAC), 19-4 (GL C #1)
4. Keystone (Mid-Atl, CSAC), 20-5 (Mid-Atl C#1)
5. Western Connecticut (NE, LEC), 20-5 (NE C #2)
6. Randolph-Macon (South, ODAC), 16-4 (South C #1)
7. UW-River Falls (West, WIAC), 18-5 (West C #1)
8. Wheaton (Midwest, CCIW), 17-5 (Midwest C #1)
9. Emory (South, UAA), 18-5 (South C #2)
10. Ohio Wesleyan (GL, NCAC), 18-6 (GL C #2)
11. Illinois Wesleyan (Midwest, CCIW), 17-6 (Midwest C #2)
12. Richard Stockton (Atlantic, NJAC), 17-6 (Atlantic C #1)
13. Augustana (Midwest, CCIW), 18-5 (Midwest C #3) - should enter MW rankings this week ahead of Hanover and Edgewood
14. UW-Stevens Point (West, WIAC), 17-6 (West C #2)
15. Rhode Island (NE, LEC), 20-5 (NE C #3)
16. Gustavus Adolphus (West, MIAC), 18-6 (West C #3)
17. Wesleyan (NE, NESCAC), 20-4 (NE C #4)
18. WPI (NE, NEWMAC), 18-6 (NE C #5)
19. Mary Washington (Mid-Atl, CAC), 16-6 (Mid-Atl C #2)


Wrong Side of the Pool C Bubble
20. Nazareth (East, E8), 17-6 (East C #2)
21. New Jersey City (Atlantic, NJAC), 15-6 (Atlantic C #2)
22. Hardin-Simmons (South, ASC), 17-6 (South C #3)
23. Wabash (GL, NCAC), 16-7 (GL C #3)
24. Whitman (West, NWC), 16-7 (West C #4)
25. Edgewood (Midwest, NathC), 17-6 (Midwest C #4)
26. Keene State (NE, LEC), 16-6 (NE C #6)
27. Hanover (Midwest, HCAC), 16-7 (Midwest C#5)
28. Tufts (NE, NESCAC), 16-8 (NE C #7)
29. Guilford (South, ODAC), 15-7 (South C #4)
30. Widener (Mid-Atl, MACC), 14-7 (Mid-Atl C #3)
31. Lycoming (Mid-Atl, MACC), 16-7 (Mid-Atl C #4)
32. Puget Sound (West, NWC), 14-6 (West C #5)

[Greek Tragedy]

Nice work, TQ.

I think Concordia (WI) will jump back in with a win over Edgewood this week (and over Benedictine). 

[Titan Q]

Nice work, TQ.

I think Concordia (WI) will jump back in with a win over Edgewood this week (and over Benedictine).

Agree.  I will add them above.

[Greek Tragedy]

I think they get their own group, Current Pool A's NOT currently Regionally Ranked, but previously were. 

[KnightSlappy]

Thanks for keeping track of the results, GT!.  Here is how I look at it...


"Bubble Bursters" (Currents A's who would be C locks)
1. Cabrini (Mid-Atl, CSAC), 24-0
2. Hope (GL, MIAA), 16-0
3. Albertus Magnus (NE, GNAC), 24-1
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (South, ASC), 23-1
5. MIT (NE, NEWMAC), 23-1
6. UW-Whitewater (West, WIAC), 22-3
7. Birmingham Southern (South, SCAC), 21-1
8. Amherst (NE, NESCAC), 21-2
9. Whitworth (West, NWC), 21-2
10. CMS (West, SCIAC), 17-1
11. Franklin & Marshall (Mid-Atl, CC), 23-2
12. William Paterson (Atlantic, NJAC), 22-3
13. Hartwick (East, E8), 22-3
14. Oswego St (East, SUNYAC), 22-3
15. Medaille (East, AMCC), 22-2
16. Virginia Wesleyan (South, ODAC), 20-3
17. Staten Island (Atlantic, CUNYAC), 20-2
18. Transylvania (Midwest, HCAC), 21-2
19. Bethany (GL, PrAC), 22-2
20. St. Joseph's (Atlantic, Sky), 21-2
21. Lake Forest (Midwest, MWC), 19-3
22. Wittenberg (GL, NCAC), 18-4

You can't have 22 Pool C locks with only 19 Pool C spots.

Bethany probably shouldn't be on this list.

And no freaking way that Augustana is a "current Pool C".

[Titan Q]

And no freaking way that Augustana is a "current Pool C".

Why?

[KnightSlappy]

And no freaking way that Augustana is a "current Pool C".

Why?

The horrid .466 SOS with a decent-but-not-great .783 WP isn't going to give them a leg up on anyone.

[Titan Q]

You can't have 22 Pool C locks with only 19 Pool C spots.

Obviously you are correct, but I think for purposes here it makes sense to list it that way.  Afterall, we know that all of these won't get upset.

[Titan Q]

And no freaking way that Augustana is a "current Pool C".

Why?

The horrid .466 SOS with a decent-but-not-great .783 WP isn't going to give them a leg up on anyone.

I definitely understand Augustana has a big SOS problem, but when you stack up all criteria and consider how the selection process works, which teams that I currently have below Augustana do you put ahead?  And why?

Not saying you are wrong, but just want to hear your take with the whole picture considered.



13. Augustana (Midwest, CCIW), 18-5 (Midwest C #3) - should enter MW rankings this week ahead of Hanover and Edgewood
14. UW-Stevens Point (West, WIAC), 17-6 (West C #2)
15. Rhode Island (NE, LEC), 20-5 (NE C #3)
16. Gustavus Adolphus (West, MIAC), 18-6 (West C #3)
17. Wesleyan (NE, NESCAC), 20-4 (NE C #4)
18. WPI (NE, NEWMAC), 18-6 (NE C #5)
19. Mary Washington (Mid-Atl, CAC), 16-6 (Mid-Atl C #2)

20. Nazareth (East, E8), 17-6 (East C #2)
21. New Jersey City (Atlantic, NJAC), 15-6 (Atlantic C #2)
22. Hardin-Simmons (South, ASC), 17-6 (South C #3)
23. Wabash (GL, NCAC), 16-7 (GL C #3)
24. Whitman (West, NWC), 16-7 (West C #4)
25. Edgewood (Midwest, NathC), 17-6 (Midwest C #4)
26. Keene State (NE, LEC), 16-6 (NE C #6)
27. Hanover (Midwest, HCAC), 16-7 (Midwest C#5)
28. Tufts (NE, NESCAC), 16-8 (NE C #7)
29. Guilford (South, ODAC), 15-7 (South C #4)
30. Widener (Mid-Atl, MACC), 14-7 (Mid-Atl C #3)
31. Lycoming (Mid-Atl, MACC), 16-7 (Mid-Atl C #4)
32. Puget Sound (West, NWC), 14-6 (West C #5)

[KnightSlappy]

And no freaking way that Augustana is a "current Pool C".

Why?

The horrid .466 SOS with a decent-but-not-great .783 WP isn't going to give them a leg up on anyone.

I definitely understand Augustana has a big SOS problem, but when you stack up all criteria do you think all 6 teams I have below them are really ahead of the Vikings right now?  And why?

Not saying you are wrong, but just want to hear your take with the whole picture considered.



13. Augustana (Midwest, CCIW), 18-5 (Midwest C #3) - should enter MW rankings this week ahead of Hanover and Edgewood
14. UW-Stevens Point (West, WIAC), 17-6 (West C #2)
15. Rhode Island (NE, LEC), 20-5 (NE C #3)
16. Gustavus Adolphus (West, MIAC), 18-6 (West C #3)
17. Wesleyan (NE, NESCAC), 20-4 (NE C #4)
18. WPI (NE, NEWMAC), 18-6 (NE C #5)
19. Mary Washington (Mid-Atl, CAC), 16-6 (Mid-Atl C #2)

UW-Stevens Point has a .590 SOS(!) and a 4-2 record versus regionally ranked.
Rhode Island College has a .588 SOS and a 5-4 record v. regionally ranked.
WPI: .588 SOS

I think your list doesn't put enough stock in SOS in general.

[Titan Q]

UW-Stevens Point has a .590 SOS(!) and a 4-2 record versus regionally ranked.

Augustana beat UW-Stevens Point - that why I put the Vikings ahead of the Pointers.

And yes, I tried to find SOS numbers and results vs regionally ranked, but those NCAA data sheets would not come up for me for some reason (server issues on their end I guess).  So yes, my work is rough.