Pool C

[Knightstalker]

Titan, I take it from your previous posts you assume Stockton will beat William Paterson?  If that happens I believe that Willy P will have the higher final Regional Ranking than St. Joes and therefore be on the board first.

[Titan Q]

Titan, I take it from your previous posts you assume Stockton will beat William Paterson?  If that happens I believe that Willy P will have the higher final Regional Ranking than St. Joes and therefore be on the board first.

Yes, I picked home teams to win conference tournament games.  Richard Stockton hosts William Paterson.

[smedindy]

What happens if Denison beats Wooster. Does the NCAC get FOUR teams in?

[KnightSlappy]

TQ, you have something funky going on with WPI and Keene State around Round 10. Looks like you accidentally took WPI off the board for a round.

[Greek Tragedy]

Great work, TQ...and I mean the projections, not the training for the marathon, Point Special!  .  Though your a better man than me for training for that.  I could never do that!  I would love to participate in that race up the Empire State building stairs!

[KnightSlappy]

What happens if Denison beats Wooster. Does the NCAC get FOUR teams in?

It's possible, but I have OWU as one of the last four in, and too many more upsets (Denison included) would shove them off the edge.

[Titan Q]

TQ, you have something funky going on with WPI and Keene State around Round 10. Looks like you accidentally took WPI off the board for a round.

Good catch...fixed.  Thanks.

[Titan Q]

What happens if Denison beats Wooster. Does the NCAC get FOUR teams in?

It's possible, but I have OWU as one of the last four in, and too many more upsets (Denison included) would shove them off the edge.

I have Ohio Wesleyan getting in at #10 right now.  So I'd say yes...a Denison win means 4 from the NCAC.

[KnightSlappy]

What happens if Denison beats Wooster. Does the NCAC get FOUR teams in?

It's possible, but I have OWU as one of the last four in, and too many more upsets (Denison included) would shove them off the edge.

I have Ohio Wesleyan getting in at #10 right now.  So I'd say yes...a Denison win means 4 from the NCAC.

I think that's at least a few spots too high. Especially in comparison to WPI. I don't see how OWU gets in before them.

[fritzdis]

What happens if Denison beats Wooster. Does the NCAC get FOUR teams in?

It's possible, but I have OWU as one of the last four in, and too many more upsets (Denison included) would shove them off the edge.

I have Ohio Wesleyan getting in at #10 right now.  So I'd say yes...a Denison win means 4 from the NCAC.

I think that's at least a few spots too high. Especially in comparison to WPI. I don't see how OWU gets in before them.

TQ's selections seem to favor results vs. RRO (Wesleyan and RMC selected before Hartwick, for example).  I have no idea whether that's reflective of what we've seen from the selection committee in the past.

[Titan Q]

Selections:

1.   Middlebury
2.   Wittenberg
3.   Rhode Island
4.   Western Conn
5.   Wheaton (IL)
6.   UW-River Falls
7.   UW-Stevens Point
8.   Wesleyan
9.   Randolph-Macon
10.   Ohio Wesleyan
11.   Hartwick
12.   St. Joseph's
13.    William Paterson
14.   WPI
15.   Keene St
16.   Lake Forest
17.   St. Mary's
18.   Illinois Wesleyan
19.   Emory

(Records below would be those as a Pool C candidate - in other words, adding a loss in the conference tournament game.  In situations where teams still have 2 games to go, I assumed a win in the semifinal game.)

Bubble Burster Tier 1 (would be in my 1-14 range of Pool C - virtual Pool C locks)
1. Amherst: 22-3 (.880), .589, 4-2 - if Middlebury (current C) wins the NESCAC, this is a top 14 non-factor
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor: 25-2 (.926), .512, 2-0
3. MIT: 24-2 (.923), .514, 2-2 - if WPI (current C) wins the NEWMAC, this is a top 14 non-factor
4. Hope: 17-1 (.944), .515, 1-0
5. Va Wesleyan: 23-4 (.852), .529, 2-3 - if Randolph-Macon (current C) wins the ODAC, this is a top 14 non-factor
6. Transylvania: 22-3 (.880), .508, 3-1
7. Whitworth: 22-3 (.880), .503, 4-3
8. Wooster: 21-5 (.808), .522, 4-3
9. Messiah: 18-7 (.720), .549, 5-2
10. Staten Island: 21-3 (.875), .549, 0-2
11. Albertus Magnus: 26-2 (.929), .469, 2-0
12. Hobart: 21-5 (.808), .517, 1-1
13. Franklin & Marshall: 24-3 (.889), .456, 3-0
14. Birmingham-Southern: 23-2 (.920), .455, 0-0

(I didn't include North Central/Wheaton here because I view them as essentially a Pool C push...just swap one out for the other in the top 10 or so.  Same with UW-Whitewater and UW-River Falls.  I don't see the CCIW and WIAC title games impacting Pool C.)


Bubble Burster Tier 2 (would be competitive in the 15-19 range of Pool C - on the bubble with my current 15-19 teams)
15. Mary Washington, 17-7 (.708), .522, 3-2
16. St. Thomas: 19-7 (.731), .540, 1-4
17. Oswego State: 24-3 (.889), .482, 0-0
18. Christopher Newport: 19-5 (.792), .503, 1-4
19. Bethany: 23-3 (.885), .453, 0-0
20. CMS: 18-3 (.857), .484, 0-0
21. Becker: 22-5 (.815), .489, 0-3
22. Nazareth: 18-7 (.720), .549, 0-4
23. Misericordia: 20-7 (.741), .508, 0-1


Let me know if I've made any mistakes in terms of who is still alive, records, etc...thanks.

[Titan Q]

TQ's selections seem to favor results vs. RRO (Wesleyan and RMC selected before Hartwick, for example).  I have no idea whether that's reflective of what we've seen from the selection committee in the past.

I don't have a scientific method for weighing the 3 numbers (winning %, SOS, results vs RR), but I will say that I looked at all 3 very closely for each team. 

I do think the "results vs regionally ranked" criterion helps as a "tie-breaker" of sorts, and I think it helps create separation.

As I said the last time I did this, it really ends up being a completely subjective analysis of objective information.

[Ralph Turner]

At the bottom of the South Region, HSU and UTD face off in Belton at 2pm CST.

[Titan Q]

What happens if Denison beats Wooster. Does the NCAC get FOUR teams in?

It's possible, but I have OWU as one of the last four in, and too many more upsets (Denison included) would shove them off the edge.

I have Ohio Wesleyan getting in at #10 right now.  So I'd say yes...a Denison win means 4 from the NCAC.

I think that's at least a few spots too high. Especially in comparison to WPI. I don't see how OWU gets in before them.

(GL) Ohio Wesleyan: 19-7 (.731), .554, 3-6
(NE) WPI: 19-7 (.731), .587, 2-4


It just depends how "results vs regionally ranked" is interpreted.  I think with 1 more win, and 3 more games played vs RR, OWU comes out ahead. 

But again, we have no idea how they really use that criterion.

[KnightSlappy]

What happens if Denison beats Wooster. Does the NCAC get FOUR teams in?

It's possible, but I have OWU as one of the last four in, and too many more upsets (Denison included) would shove them off the edge.

I have Ohio Wesleyan getting in at #10 right now.  So I'd say yes...a Denison win means 4 from the NCAC.

I think that's at least a few spots too high. Especially in comparison to WPI. I don't see how OWU gets in before them.

(GL) Ohio Wesleyan: 19-7 (.731), .554, 3-6
(NE) WPI: 19-7 (.731), .587, 2-4


It just depends how "results vs regionally ranked" is interpreted.  I think with 1 more win, and 3 more games played vs RR, OWU comes out ahead. 

But again, we have no idea how they really use that criterion.

I think the .033 SOS difference is more than the exact same percentage in vRRO.