Pool C

[Ralph Turner]

What happens if Denison beats Wooster. Does the NCAC get FOUR teams in?

It's possible, but I have OWU as one of the last four in, and too many more upsets (Denison included) would shove them off the edge.

I have Ohio Wesleyan getting in at #10 right now.  So I'd say yes...a Denison win means 4 from the NCAC.

I think that's at least a few spots too high. Especially in comparison to WPI. I don't see how OWU gets in before them.

(GL) Ohio Wesleyan: 19-7 (.731), .554, 3-6
(NE) WPI: 19-7 (.731), .587, 2-4


It just depends how "results vs regionally ranked" is interpreted.  I think with 1 more win, and 3 more games played vs RR, OWU comes out ahead. 

But again, we have no idea how they really use that criterion.

I think the .033 SOS difference is more than the exact same percentage in vRRO.

On the contrary, I would like to see where .587 stands in the region as an SOS.

I remember a stat that I say several years ago.  Whose batting average was higher?  George Brett .390 in 1980 or Rogers Hornsby's .424 in 1924?

Brett's .390 was almost 0.5 SD's above the mean than Hornsby's .424.

The Northeast Region is notorious for really high SOS's, just the opposite of the South (make that Texas) Region.

[7express]

How much do you think losses to USM (11-14) and Plymouth state (9-16) are going to hurt Western??  I think 2 wins or Keene state get them in, but I'll be extremely nervous on Monday morning, especially if Wesleyan & Bates both win tonight, MIT loses, Hope loses, Paterson loses, etc.
As much as I dumped on St. Joes and the Skyline, they lost 3 d-3 games; 1 to a team that finished 18-9, 1 to a team that finished 20-7 and another to a team that will either finish 14-14 or 15-13.  Not great, but still better than losing to an 11-14 or 9-16 team.

[Titan Q]

On the contrary, I would like to see where .587 stands in the region as an SOS.

I remember a stat that I say several years ago.  Whose batting average was higher?  George Brett .390 in 1980 or Rogers Hornsby's .424 in 1924?

Brett's .390 was almost 0.5 SD's above the mean than Hornsby's .424.

The Northeast Region is notorious for really high SOS's, just the opposite of the South (make that Texas) Region.

Good point on the NE, Ralph.  That said though, WPI's .587 is second only to UW-Stevens Point in the current Pool C landscape I believe.  After considering that, I probably do have them a little low.

[KnightSlappy]

How much do you think losses to USM (11-14) and Plymouth state (9-16) are going to hurt Western??  I think 2 wins or Keene state get them in, but I'll be extremely nervous on Monday morning, especially if Wesleyan & Bates both win tonight, MIT loses, Hope loses, Paterson loses, etc.
As much as I dumped on St. Joes and the Skyline, they lost 3 d-3 games; 1 to a team that finished 18-9, 1 to a team that finished 20-7 and another to a team that will either finish 14-14 or 15-13.  Not great, but still better than losing to an 11-14 or 9-16 team.

Do not fret. Western is a cold hard lead pipe lock to grab a Pool C bid.

[KnightSlappy]

What happens if Denison beats Wooster. Does the NCAC get FOUR teams in?

It's possible, but I have OWU as one of the last four in, and too many more upsets (Denison included) would shove them off the edge.

I have Ohio Wesleyan getting in at #10 right now.  So I'd say yes...a Denison win means 4 from the NCAC.

I think that's at least a few spots too high. Especially in comparison to WPI. I don't see how OWU gets in before them.

(GL) Ohio Wesleyan: 19-7 (.731), .554, 3-6
(NE) WPI: 19-7 (.731), .587, 2-4


It just depends how "results vs regionally ranked" is interpreted.  I think with 1 more win, and 3 more games played vs RR, OWU comes out ahead. 

But again, we have no idea how they really use that criterion.

Hmmm. Also looks like WPI should be 3-3 vRRO.

[Hugenerd]

What happens if Denison beats Wooster. Does the NCAC get FOUR teams in?

It's possible, but I have OWU as one of the last four in, and too many more upsets (Denison included) would shove them off the edge.

I have Ohio Wesleyan getting in at #10 right now.  So I'd say yes...a Denison win means 4 from the NCAC.

I think that's at least a few spots too high. Especially in comparison to WPI. I don't see how OWU gets in before them.

(GL) Ohio Wesleyan: 19-7 (.731), .554, 3-6
(NE) WPI: 19-7 (.731), .587, 2-4


It just depends how "results vs regionally ranked" is interpreted.  I think with 1 more win, and 3 more games played vs RR, OWU comes out ahead. 

But again, we have no idea how they really use that criterion.

Knightslappy is correct, WPI is 3-3 vs. RR opponents.  Therefore, I can't imagine 3 additional regional losses helps OWU jump over them, especially with WPI's edge in SOS and identical winning percentage.

[KnightSlappy]

Early upset alert: Birmingham Southern trails Centre by 9 at the half. BSU would likely hit the middle of Pool C if this result held.

[Titan Q]

Knightslappy is correct, WPI is 3-3 vs. RR opponents.  Therefore, I can't imagine 3 additional regional losses helps OWU jump over them, especially with WPI's edge in SOS and identical winning percentage.

Here is the last regional data sheet...

http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank?doWhat=publicrankings&sportCode=MBB&region=5&division=3


They had 2-3...and then I added the (hypothetical) loss to MIT for 2-4.

Is the sheet wrong, or did WPI play a RR opponent earlier this week?

[Greek Tragedy]

My list has them just playing this weekend in the conference tourney.

[KnightSlappy]

Knightslappy is correct, WPI is 3-3 vs. RR opponents.  Therefore, I can't imagine 3 additional regional losses helps OWU jump over them, especially with WPI's edge in SOS and identical winning percentage.

Here is the last regional data sheet...

http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank?doWhat=publicrankings&sportCode=MBB&region=5&division=3


They had 2-3...and then I added the (hypothetical) loss to MIT for 2-4.

Is the sheet wrong, or did WPI play a RR opponent earlier this week?

They beat Salem State earlier in the year which is probably not included on the sheet.

[Greek Tragedy]

Birmingham Southern going down.  #3 in the south 77-58

[7express]

I know it's early, hope Hope & NYU both losing at halftime.

[scottiedawg]

Birmingham Southern going down.  #3 in the south 77-58

Does that push out Emory or IWU?

[scottiedawg]

I know it's early, hope Hope & NYU both losing at halftime.

The NYU-Brandeis game has no tournament implications though, right?

The Hope-Adrian one doesn't really either.

But both definitely compelling games to follow!

[scottiedawg]

WPI down 9 to Springfield about midway through the 2nd half.  A loss puts them out, right?