Pool C

[7express]

Anyone know what time the show starts??  Women at 1:30, men at 3:00??

[algernon]

Titan Q ... Why do you have Randolph-Macon on the board ahead of Birmingham-Southern, given that Birmingham-Southern was the Regional #3 in the last ranking and, since then, beat the University of Dallas (regional 6-18) and lost to Centre (regional 16-8), whereas RMC was the Regional #4 and, since then, beat Eastern Mennonite (regional 11-12)and lost to Randolph (regional 13-9)?

[Just Bill]

The Selection Show on Monday?

Men at 12:00 Eastern, women (I think) at 2:00 Eastern.

[Titan Q]

Titan Q ... Why do you have Randolph-Macon on the board ahead of Birmingham-Southern, given that Birmingham-Southern was the Regional #3 in the last ranking and, since then, beat the University of Dallas (regional 6-18) and lost to Centre (regional 16-8), whereas RMC was the Regional #4 and, since then, beat Eastern Mennonite (regional 11-12)and lost to Randolph (regional 13-9)?

Algernon, I could certainly have that order wrong.  I can definitely see Birmingham-Southern ahead of Randolph-Macon.  But here is why I landed where I did...

When BSC lost yesterday, I did a revised Pool C projection with BSC ahead of RMC.  I found that using that order, that the South's top Pool candidate actually got selected later (in my projection) than when I put RMC ahead.  In other words, very simply, I have RMC on the board first because I believe RMC is a better Pool C candidate than BSC...

* Randolph-Macon: 18-5 (.783), .516, 3-2
* Birmingham-Southern: 23-2 (.920), .455, 0-0

Again, as I keep saying, we're really just talking about "subjective evaluation of objective data" - I see RMC as the better Pool C, but others may interpret the data in another way.

The regional advisory committee's job is to stack its teams up in the order that gives the region its best Pool C chances.  I'd slot RMC ahead of BSC, but I could definitely have that wrong.

Lake Forest vs Illinois Wesleyan (Midwest) is a similar situation...NYU vs Hobart (East) also comes to mind.

[algernon]

Thanks for your reasoning.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out!

[KnightSlappy]

Here's a link to my latest selections:

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/2012/02/bracketology-2262012.html

TQ and I differ on two picks, but one of mine (St. Thomas) probably won't make it because they still have to lose. I probably shouldn't have included them, but I did. Replacing them on my list would be either Emory or Birmingham-Southern (however that region plays out). Or perhaps NYU or Rochester.

I also disagree that IWU is in. But as he says, you never really know about those last couple of spots.

[Titan Q]

Here's a link to my latest selections:

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/2012/02/bracketology-2262012.html

TQ and I differ on two picks, but one of mine (St. Thomas) probably won't make it because they still have to lose. I probably shouldn't have included them, but I did. Replacing them on my list would be either Emory or Birmingham-Southern (however that region plays out). Or perhaps NYU or Rochester.

I also disagree that IWU is in. But as he says, you never really know about those last couple of spots.

I think Emory would have a hard time getting in over IWU due to a common opponent result - IWU beat Wash U, while Emory was swept by Wash U.

I also think IWU's "secondary criteria" wins over Staten Island (Atlantic #1) and Bethany (#5) are potential separating factors...in addition to "primary criteria" SOS and wins over RR.  Those factors may be enough, at that point of the bubble, to push IWU in.

But without question, those last 3 spots or so could go absolutely any direction. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Bubble teams may resume breathing - the halftime score on scoreboard is reversed!  According to livestats, MIT is UP 10, not down 10!

[Titan Q]

Knightslappy, do you by chance have updated SOS numbers?  I've been using SOS through the last ranking, but obviously the numbers have moved a little this week.

[KnightSlappy]

Knightslappy, do you by chance have updated SOS numbers?  I've been using SOS through the last ranking, but obviously the numbers have moved a little this week.

here's what I'm using:

wSOS    Team
0.531   Adrian
0.457   Albertus Magnus
0.482   Albion
0.560   Albright
0.484   Alfred
0.513   Allegheny
0.512   Alma
0.543   Alvernia
0.580   Amherst
0.528   Anderson
0.525   Anna Maria
0.480   Arcadia
0.483   Augsburg
0.495   Augustana
0.438   Aurora
0.469   Austin
0.511   Averett
0.568   Babson
0.481   Baldwin-Wallace
0.486   Baptist Bible
0.487   Bard
0.538   Baruch
0.624   Bates
0.481   Becker
0.525   Beloit
0.468   Benedictine
0.444   Berry
0.437   Bethany
0.460   Bethany Lutheran
0.506   Bethel
0.443   Birmingham-Southern
0.456   Blackburn
0.502   Bluffton
0.536   Bowdoin
0.575   Brandeis
0.509   Bridgewater (Va.)
0.518   Bridgewater State
0.544   Brockport State
0.499   Brooklyn
0.535   Buena Vista
0.465   Buffalo State
0.492   Cabrini
0.513   Cal Lutheran
0.457   Caltech
0.540   Calvin
0.514   Capital
0.500   Carleton
0.574   Carnegie Mellon
0.507   Carroll
0.519   Carthage
0.518   Case Western Reserve
0.472   Castleton State
0.492   Catholic
0.446   Cazenovia
0.491   CCNY
0.474   Centenary
0.000   Centenary (La.)
0.497   Central
0.541   Centre
0.483   Chapman
0.557   Chicago
0.493   Christopher Newport
0.483   Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
0.596   Clark
0.474   Clarkson
0.549   Coast Guard
0.504   Coe
0.532   Colby
0.427   Colby-Sawyer
0.458   Colorado College
0.511   Concordia (Ill.)
0.516   Concordia (Texas)
0.480   Concordia (Wis.)
0.500   Concordia-Moorhead
0.538   Connecticut College
0.503   Cornell
0.486   Cortland State
0.430   Covenant
0.419   Crown
0.495   Curry
0.425   Daniel Webster
0.542   Defiance
0.542   Delaware Valley
0.528   Denison
0.552   DePauw
0.482   DeSales
0.498   Dickinson
0.479   Dominican
0.534   Drew
0.490   Dubuque
0.467   DYouville
0.520   Earlham
0.479   East Texas Baptist
0.494   Eastern
0.536   Eastern Connecticut
0.521   Eastern Mennonite
0.443   Eastern Nazarene
0.496   Edgewood
0.552   Elizabethtown
0.534   Elmhurst
0.526   Elmira
0.513   Elms
0.478   Emerson
0.480   Emmanuel
0.529   Emory
0.503   Emory and Henry
0.465   Endicott
0.477   Eureka
0.462   Farmingdale State
0.531   FDU-Florham
0.469   Ferrum
0.518   Finlandia
0.477   Fitchburg State
0.463   Fontbonne
0.497   Framingham State
0.456   Franciscan (Ohio)
0.525   Franklin
0.452   Franklin and Marshall
0.500   Fredonia State
0.507   Frostburg State
0.471   Gallaudet
0.515   Geneseo State
0.501   Geneva
0.523   George Fox
0.494   Gettysburg
0.501   Gordon
0.468   Goucher
0.420   Green Mountain
0.447   Greensboro
0.435   Greenville
0.473   Grinnell
0.478   Grove City
0.534   Guilford
0.514   Gustavus Adolphus
0.459   Gwynedd-Mercy
0.552   Hamilton
0.499   Hamline
0.545   Hampden-Sydney
0.513   Hanover
0.529   Hardin-Simmons
0.509   Hartwick
0.536   Haverford
0.505   Heidelberg
0.478   Hendrix
0.446   Hilbert
0.501   Hiram
0.520   Hobart
0.535   Hood
0.511   Hope
0.514   Howard Payne
0.512   Hunter
0.444   Huntingdon
0.458   Husson
0.504   Illinois College
0.541   Illinois Wesleyan
0.532   Immaculata
0.593   Ithaca
0.491   John Carroll
0.504   John Jay
0.465   Johns Hopkins
0.516   Johnson and Wales
0.446   Johnson State
0.513   Juniata
0.485   Kalamazoo
0.550   Kean
0.574   Keene State
0.488   Kenyon
0.450   Keuka
0.504   Keystone
0.517   Kings
0.508   Knox
0.440   La Roche
0.517   La Verne
0.451   LaGrange
0.516   Lake Forest
0.498   Lakeland
0.435   Lancaster Bible
0.513   Lasell
0.511   Lawrence
0.543   Lebanon Valley
0.498   Lehman
0.442   Lesley
0.478   LeTourneau
0.541   Lewis and Clark
0.508   Linfield
0.525   Loras
0.496   Louisiana College
0.548   Luther
0.538   Lycoming
0.515   Lynchburg
0.452   Lyndon State
0.483   Macalester
0.494   MacMurray
0.415   Maine Maritime
0.438   Maine-Farmington
0.557   Maine-Presque Isle
0.536   Manchester
0.527   Manhattanville
0.470   Maranatha Baptist
0.476   Marian
0.502   Marietta
0.413   Martin Luther
0.502   Mary Hardin-Baylor
0.510   Mary Washington
0.496   Marymount
0.418   Maryville (Tenn.)
0.499   Marywood
0.520   Massachusetts College
0.537   Mass-Boston
0.565   Mass-Dartmouth
0.471   McDaniel
0.553   McMurry
0.427   Medaille
0.544   Medgar Evers
0.471   Merchant Marine
0.547   Messiah
0.560   Methodist
0.571   Middlebury
0.540   Millikin
0.498   Millsaps
0.466   Milwaukee Engineering
0.410   Minnesota-Morris
0.496   Misericordia
0.503   Mississippi College
0.509   MIT
0.434   Mitchell
0.504   Monmouth
0.526   Montclair State
0.499   Moravian
0.457   Morrisville State
0.448   Mount Aloysius
0.432   Mount Ida
0.511   Mount St. Joseph
0.450   Mount St. Mary
0.495   Mount St. Vincent
0.472   Mount Union
0.484   Muhlenberg
0.509   Muskingum
0.551   Nazareth
0.514   Nebraska Wesleyan
0.531   Neumann
0.432   New England College
0.550   New Jersey City
0.540   New Paltz State
0.494   New York University
0.458   Newbury
0.467   Nichols
0.492   North Carolina Wesleyan
0.500   North Central (Ill.)
0.408   North Central (Minn.)
0.529   North Park
0.441   Northland
0.455   Northwestern (Minn.)
0.444   Norwich
0.449   NYU-Poly
0.480   Oberlin
0.470   Occidental
0.482   Oglethorpe
0.533   Ohio Northern
0.551   Ohio Wesleyan
0.495   Olivet
0.552   Oneonta State
0.471   Oswego State
0.524   Otterbein
0.508   Pacific
0.505   Pacific Lutheran
0.496   Penn State-Abington
0.420   Penn State-Altoona
0.497   Penn State-Behrend
0.461   Penn State-Berks
0.466   Penn State-Harrisburg
0.469   Philadelphia Bible
0.459   Piedmont
0.463   Pitt-Bradford
0.480   Pitt-Greensburg
0.526   Plattsburgh State
0.572   Plymouth State
0.513   Pomona-Pitzer
0.524   Potsdam State
0.418   Presentation
0.466   Principia
0.513   Puget Sound
0.536   Ramapo
0.517   Randolph
0.515   Randolph-Macon
0.517   Redlands
0.462   Regis (Mass.)
0.591   Rhode Island College
0.501   Rhodes
0.517   Richard Stockton
0.503   Ripon
0.441   Rivier
0.518   Roanoke
0.568   Rochester
0.487   Rochester Tech
0.486   Rockford
0.476   Roger Williams
0.495   Rose-Hulman
0.473   Rosemont
0.507   Rowan
0.547   RPI
0.418   Rust
0.502   Rutgers-Camden
0.514   Rutgers-Newark
0.423   Sage
0.516   Salem State
0.509   Salisbury
0.458   Salve Regina
0.510   Schreiner
0.496   Scranton
0.487   Sewanee
0.491   Shenandoah
0.567   Simpson
0.511   Skidmore
0.554   Southern Maine
0.489   Southern Vermont
0.523   Southwestern
0.468   Spalding
0.543   Springfield
0.500   St. John Fisher
0.501   St. Johns
0.444   St. Josephs (Bklyn.)
0.470   St. Josephs (L.I.)
0.497   St. Josephs (Maine)
0.506   St. Lawrence
0.557   St. Marys (Md.)
0.489   St. Marys (Minn.)
0.497   St. Norbert
0.528   St. Olaf
0.427   St. Scholastica
0.534   St. Thomas
0.491   St. Vincent
0.541   Staten Island
0.511   Stevens
0.506   Stevenson
0.472   Suffolk
0.521   Sul Ross State
0.487   SUNY-Cobleskill
0.434   SUNYIT
0.478   SUNY-Maritime
0.491   SUNY-Old Westbury
0.505   SUNY-Purchase
0.524   Susquehanna
0.483   Swarthmore
0.485   TCNJ
0.512   Texas Lutheran
0.481   Texas-Dallas
0.487   Texas-Tyler
0.477   Thiel
0.428   Thomas
0.500   Thomas More
0.501   Transylvania
0.488   Trine
0.552   Trinity (Conn.)
0.488   Trinity (Texas)
0.530   Tufts
0.604   UC Santa Cruz
0.476   Union
0.460   University of Dallas
0.489   University of New England
0.477   University of the Ozarks
0.505   Ursinus
0.495   Utica
0.534   UW-Eau Claire
0.587   UW-La Crosse
0.551   UW-Oshkosh
0.524   UW-Platteville
0.557   UW-River Falls
0.593   UW-Stevens Point
0.574   UW-Stout
0.540   UW-Superior
0.546   UW-Whitewater
0.501   Vassar
0.531   Virginia Wesleyan
0.549   Wabash
0.498   Wartburg
0.506   Washington and Jefferson
0.548   Washington and Lee
0.491   Washington College
0.583   Washington U.
0.481   Waynesburg
0.504   Webster
0.482   Wells
0.447   Wentworth
0.546   Wesley
0.515   Wesleyan
0.568   Western Connecticut
0.478   Western New England
0.489   Westfield State
0.483   Westminster (Mo.)
0.471   Westminster (Pa.)
0.570   Wheaton (Ill.)
0.547   Wheaton (Mass.)
0.469   Wheelock
0.526   Whitman
0.487   Whittier
0.503   Whitworth
0.559   Widener
0.531   Wilkes
0.538   Willamette
0.505   William Paterson
0.552   Williams
0.523   Wilmington
0.490   Wisconsin Lutheran
0.522   Wittenberg
0.522   Wooster
0.483   Worcester State
0.586   WPI
0.478   Yeshiva
0.550   York (N.Y.)
0.545   York (Pa.)   

[Titan Q]

Thanks.

[scottiedawg]

Springfield has surged back to take the lead over MIT.

[cardinalpride]

Knightslappy, do you by chance have updated SOS numbers?  I've been using SOS through the last ranking, but obviously the numbers have moved a little this week.

here's what I'm using:

wSOS    Team


0.500   North Central (Ill.)

Knightslappy, what could've cause NCC sos to drop from .501 to .500 after playing Augustana and Wheaton? 

[Greek Tragedy]

Looks like MIT saves the the Pool Cs a spot with getting by Springfield.

[John Gleich]

Knightslappy, do you by chance have updated SOS numbers?  I've been using SOS through the last ranking, but obviously the numbers have moved a little this week.

here's what I'm using:

wSOS    Team


0.500   North Central (Ill.)

Knightslappy, what could've cause NCC sos to drop from .501 to .500 after playing Augustana and Wheaton? 

Rounding?