Pool C

[smedindy]

WPI's Massey SOS was 95th. That's not a 'bad' schedule at all, considering there are 400+ teams. Bethany has a 'bad' schedule. WPI's is in the top quartile.

WPI's is in the top quartile. Keene's schedule was 67th, so really in the neighborhood of WPI's.

Perception may be one thing, but the reality of at least one neutral party says it's not that much of a difference.

[Hugenerd]

WPI's Massey SOS was 95th. That's not a 'bad' schedule at all, considering there are 400+ teams. Bethany has a 'bad' schedule. WPI's is in the top quartile.

WPI's is in the top quartile. Keene's schedule was 67th, so really in the neighborhood of WPI's.

Perception may be one thing, but the reality of at least one neutral party says it's not that much of a difference.

Yeah, you want a bad schedule for a highly ranked team, according to Massey Birmingham Southern's schedule is ranked 332 (and before anyone mentions MIT, Massey has their schedule 146, within 35 of Middlebury, UMHB, VA Wesleyan, and East Conn).

[sac]

I think all of us are curious about Birmingham Southern.  They breezed through the SCAC, but played a pretty poor non-conference schedule, not helped by playing 3-22 Berry twice.  Their entire schedule consisted of 4 teams(7 games) with winning records and they lost 2 of those games.

[smedindy]

BSC, cursed by location?

[bopol]

Missed three:

Had Lake Forest, WPI and Keene State in

Didn't have NYU, IWU and Gustavus Aldophus in.

Thoughts:
* From the first to second regional rankings, the committee flipped North Central and IWU despite the fact that neither team had done anything to warrant the change.  So I guess it is justifiable to bump IWU ahead of Lake Forest on a neutral-site loss to Wheaton being better than a home-loss to Carroll. 

* What I don't get is how IWU and Gustavus Aldophus then end up ahead of WPI and Keene State.  They all had similar records against regionally ranked opponents, similar records period and IWU had the worst SOS of the three.  That baffles me.

* Similarly, Lake Forest had a better record and SOS than NYU, so the two regional ranked wins were really valuable for NYU.  But then how does NYU get the bid over Wesleyan (Conn) since they had more wins against regionally ranked and a tougher schedule with a similar record.

* Basically, here's my problem.  Given those that made it, the figuring is that Wesleyan, WPI or Keene State had to be blocking the others, but at some point, the committee chose NYU over Wesleyan (which doesn't make sense) or IWU and GA over WPI or Keene State (similarly doesn't make sense).  So there was no consistancy except to ignore their criteria and go with gut opinions, so it's like the D1 process.

[Ralph Turner]

BSC, cursed by location?

Yes and it won't get any better next season.

They need to add Emory, Maryville, a couple of ODAC's and some Administrative Region 3 powers out of the HCAC, OAC or NCAC to their 14 game conference schedule.

[smedindy]

They may have helped their future conference mate Berry get some games, which is noble, but hurt their numbers.

[Titan Q]

* What I don't get is how IWU and Gustavus Aldophus then end up ahead of WPI and Keene State.  They all had similar records against regionally ranked opponents, similar records period and IWU had the worst SOS of the three.  That baffles me.

As has been speculated on here today, the odds are very good that IWU and Gustavus Adolphus were never evaluated vs WPI or Keene State (sounds like Wesleyan must have been rated ahead of WPI in the NE).  Middlebury certainly got selected right at the beginning, and then was replaced in the NE at the table by Western Connecticut, which I had getting in at #6.  And then Wesleyan just sat there in the NE the rest of the process.

So let's say Round 15 looked like this...

Round 15
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) New York U: 20-5 (.800), .494, 2-2
(GL) John Carroll: 15-7 (.682), .491, 1-1
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Illinois Wesleyan: 17-7 (.708), .541, 3-6
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3 
(S) Birmingham-Southern: 23-2 (.920), .443, 0-0
(W) Gustavus Adolphus: 19-7 (.731), .526, 2-2


How IWU and Gustavus Adolphus stack up in the criteria vs WPI and Keene State is not really relevant it appears.  You can stack IWU and Gustavus against the other 6 teams above, but I don't think WPI and Keene State.

I don't really understand how St. Joseph's (LI) got selected over Wesleyan.

[smedindy]

I think St. Joseph's is the team getting almost everyone in a bunch. Of course, they'll pull a couple of wins out of the tourney now (much like VCU last year in D-1...), but at least no one is being all Billy Packer about it. Yet.

[bopol]

So let's say Round 15 looked like this...

Round 15
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) New York U: 20-5 (.800), .494, 2-2
(GL) John Carroll: 15-7 (.682), .491, 1-1
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Illinois Wesleyan: 17-7 (.708), .541, 3-6
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3 
(S) Birmingham-Southern: 23-2 (.920), .443, 0-0
(W) Gustavus Adolphus: 19-7 (.731), .526, 2-2


How IWU and Gustavus Adolphus stack up in the criteria vs WPI and Keene State is not really relevant it appears.  You can stack IWU and Gustavus against the other 6 teams above, but I don't think WPI and Keene State.

I don't really understand how St. Joseph's (LI) got selected over Wesleyan.

If Round 15 looks like that, then NYU and Wesleyan are on the table together until one or the other gets in.  I don't see how you choose NYU over Wesleyan based on that and the committee did at some point.

[pjunito]

As an Albertus fan... I hope not; St. Joe's will play with a chip on their shoulder.

[Titan Q]

Based on the selections we now have, here is a best guess at how the process played out.  This is certainly not perfect, but probably in the ballpark...


Round 1
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Hartwick: 22-3 (.880), .509, 2-0
(GL) Wittenberg: 19-5 (.792), .522, 6-1
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Wheaton: 18-6 (.750), .570, 6-5
(NE) Middlebury: 22-3 (.880), .588, 2-3  ***
(S) Randolph-Macon: 19-5 (.792), .515, 3-3
(W) UW-Whitewater: 23-4 (.852), .547, 5-3

Round 2
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Hartwick: 22-3 (.880), .509, 2-0
(GL) Wittenberg: 19-5 (.792), .522, 6-1
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Wheaton: 18-6 (.750), .570, 6-5
(NE) Rhode Island: 22-6 (.786), .591, 6-5
(S) Mary Hardin-Baylor: 24-2 (.923), 502, 2-0
(W) UW-Whitewater: 23-4 (.852), .547, 5-3 ***

Round 3
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Hartwick: 22-3 (.880), .509, 2-0
(GL) Wittenberg: 19-5 (.792), .522, 6-1
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Wheaton: 18-6 (.750), .570, 6-5
(NE) Rhode Island: 22-6 (.786), .591, 6-5
(S) Mary Hardin-Baylor: 24-2 (.923), 502, 2-0 ***
(W) UW-Stevens Point: 18-7 (.720), .592, 4-4

Round 4
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Hartwick: 22-3 (.880), .509, 2-0
(GL) Wittenberg: 19-5 (.792), .522, 6-1 ***
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Wheaton: 18-6 (.750), .570, 6-5
(NE) Rhode Island: 22-6 (.786), .591, 6-5 
(S) Randolph-Macon: 19-5 (.792), .515, 3-3
(W) UW-Stevens Point: 18-7 (.720), .592, 4-4

Round 5
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Hartwick: 22-3 (.880), .509, 2-0
(GL) Ohio Wesleyan: 19-7 (.731), .551, 3-6
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Wheaton: 18-6 (.750), .570, 6-5
(NE) Rhode Island: 22-6 (.786), .591, 6-5 ***
(NE) Western Conn: 20-6 (.769), .568, 6-5 
(S) Randolph-Macon: 19-5 (.792), .515, 3-3
(W) UW-Stevens Point: 18-7 (.720), .592, 4-4

Round 6
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Hartwick: 22-3 (.880), .509, 2-0
(GL) Ohio Wesleyan: 19-7 (.731), .551, 3-6
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Wheaton: 18-6 (.750), .570, 6-5 
(NE) Western Conn: 20-6 (.769), .568, 6-5  ***
(S) Randolph-Macon: 19-5 (.792), .515, 3-3
(W) UW-Stevens Point: 18-7 (.720), .592, 4-4

Round 7
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Hartwick: 22-3 (.880), .509, 2-0
(GL) Ohio Wesleyan: 19-7 (.731), .551, 3-6
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Wheaton: 18-6 (.750), .570, 6-5  ***
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3 
(S) Randolph-Macon: 19-5 (.792), .515, 3-3
(W) UW-Stevens Point: 18-7 (.720), .592, 4-4

Round 8
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Hartwick: 22-3 (.880), .509, 2-0
(GL) Ohio Wesleyan: 19-7 (.731), .551, 3-6
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Transylvania: 22-3 (.880), .500, 3-1
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3 
(S) Randolph-Macon: 19-5 (.792), .515, 3-3
(W) UW-Stevens Point: 18-7 (.720), .592, 4-4 ***

Round 9
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Hartwick: 22-3 (.880), .509, 2-0
(GL) Ohio Wesleyan: 19-7 (.731), .551, 3-6
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Transylvania: 22-3 (.880), .500, 3-1 ***
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3 
(S) Randolph-Macon: 19-5 (.792), .515, 3-3
(W) Gustavus Adolphus: 19-7 (.731), .526, 2-2

Round 10
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Hartwick: 22-3 (.880), .509, 2-0 ***
(GL) Ohio Wesleyan: 19-7 (.731), .551, 3-6
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Illinois Wesleyan: 17-7 (.708), .541, 3-6 
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3 
(S) Randolph-Macon: 18-5 (.783), .515, 3-2
(W) Gustavus Adolphus: 19-7 (.731), .526, 2-2

[Titan Q]

Round 11
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Hobart: 21-5 (.808), .520, 1-1
(GL) Ohio Wesleyan: 19-7 (.731), .551, 3-6 ***
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Illinois Wesleyan: 17-7 (.708), .541, 3-6
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3
(S) Randolph-Macon: 18-5 (.783), .515, 3-2
(W) Gustavus Adolphus: 19-7 (.731), .526, 2-2

Round 12
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Hobart: 21-5 (.808), .520, 1-1 ***
(GL) John Carroll: 15-7 (.682), .491, 1-1
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3
(MW) Illinois Wesleyan: 17-7 (.708), .541, 3-6
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3
(S) Randolph-Macon: 18-5 (.783), .515, 3-2
(W) Gustavus Adolphus: 19-7 (.731), .526, 2-2

Round 13
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) New York U: 20-5 (.800), .494, 2-2
(GL) John Carroll: 15-7 (.682), .491, 1-1
(MA) St. Mary's: 17-6 (.739), .557, 1-3 ***
(MW) Illinois Wesleyan: 17-7 (.708), .541, 3-6
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3
(S) Randolph-Macon: 18-5 (.783), .515, 3-2
(W) Gustavus Adolphus: 19-7 (.731), .526, 2-2

Round 14
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) New York U: 20-5 (.800), .494, 2-2
(GL) John Carroll: 15-7 (.682), .491, 1-1
(MA) Keystone: 21-6 (.778), .504, 0-3
(MW) Illinois Wesleyan: 17-7 (.708), .541, 3-6 ***
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3
(S) Randolph-Macon: 18-5 (.783), .515, 3-2
(W) Gustavus Adolphus: 19-7 (.731), .526, 2-2

Round 15
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) New York U: 20-5 (.800), .494, 2-2
(GL) John Carroll: 15-7 (.682), .491, 1-1
(MA) Keystone: 21-6 (.778), .504, 0-3
(MW) Lake Forest: 19-4 (.826), .516, 0-1
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3
(S) Randolph-Macon: 18-5 (.783), .515, 3-2 ***
(W) Gustavus Adolphus: 19-7 (.731), .526, 2-2

Round 16
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) New York U: 20-5 (.800), .494, 2-2
(GL) John Carroll: 15-7 (.682), .491, 1-1
(MA) Keystone: 21-6 (.778), .504, 0-3
(MW) Lake Forest: 19-4 (.826), .516, 0-1
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3
(S) Birmingham-Southern: 23-2 (.920), .443, 0-0
(W) Gustavus Adolphus: 19-7 (.731), .526, 2-2

Round 17
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) New York U: 20-5 (.800), .494, 2-2 ***
(GL) John Carroll: 15-7 (.682), .491, 1-1
(MA) Keystone: 21-6 (.778), .504, 0-3
(MW) Lake Forest: 19-4 (.826), .516, 0-1
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3
(S) Birmingham-Southern: 23-2 (.920), .443, 0-0
(W) Puget Sound: 15-7 (.682), .513, 3-3

Round 18
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2 ***
(E) Nazareth, 18-7 (.720), .549, 0-4
(GL) John Carroll: 15-7 (.682), .491, 1-1
(MA) Keystone: 21-6 (.778), .504, 0-3
(MW) Lake Forest: 19-4 (.826), .516, 0-1
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3
(S) Birmingham-Southern: 23-2 (.920), .443, 0-0
(W) Puget Sound: 15-7 (.682), .513, 3-3

Round 19
(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Nazareth, 18-7 (.720), .549, 0-4
(GL) John Carroll: 15-7 (.682), .491, 1-1
(MA) Keystone: 21-6 (.778), .504, 0-3
(MW) Lake Forest: 19-4 (.826), .516, 0-1
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3
(S) Birmingham-Southern: 23-2 (.920), .443, 0-0
(W) Puget Sound: 15-7 (.682), .513, 3-3

[Titan Q]

I still don't know how Wesleyan didn't get off the board.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Trying to catch up and I think one thing that is being overlooked is the fact that the national committee isn't looking a just two teams side-by-side (i.e. NYU vs. WPI). They are looking at eight!

So, with a team from each region on the board there committee is looking at each team with the primary criteria and I wouldn't be surprised if that meant going in circles when you get down to the last five or so... they might not be able to pick one that cut-and-dry. So to make sure they get the last teams right they also look at the secondary criteria, so be it. I rather them make those difficult decisions with more information then less... plus the fact, I can't imagine when getting to that point that one team is cut-and-dry above all the rest.