Pool C

[NEPAFAN]

Why is Scranton not in your MA rankings?

[KnightSlappy]

Why is Scranton not in your MA rankings?

Because they have a .737 winning percentage and a .487 strength of schedule.

[Greek Tragedy]

Why is Scranton not in your MA rankings?

Because they have a .737 winning percentage and a .487 strength of schedule.

I guess more emphasis on the SOS?

Messiah has a .588 winning percentage and a .567 strength of schedule.

[John Gleich]

Well, the 1st Regional Rankings come out next Wednesday, Feb. 6th. That means results through this weekend will count. 

Here's my quick view of what the West Rankings might look like, going into this week's games.  I may try to update my thoughts this weekend. 

Of course, I don't pretend to be an expert like some of you guys!

1. St. Thomas 18-1: Wins over Whitworth and Stevens Point
2. Stevens Point 18-2: Wins over Buena Vista, Augustana, Whitewater (2), Stout, La Crosse. Losses to St. Thomas and Concordia (TX)
3. Whitworth 18-1: Win over MHB.  Loss to St. Thomas
4. Whitewater 15-4: Wins over Aurora, La Crosse, IWU, Northwestern (MN). Losses to St. Norbert and Stevens Point (2)
5. Stout 15-4: Win over La Crosse. Losses to Whitewater (2) and Stevens Point.
6. Augsburg 15-4: Loss to St. Thomas

In contention 7-9

Northwestern (MN) 14-5: Win over Wheaton (IL). Losses to Buena Vista, Luther and Whitewater.
Buena Vista 14-5: Win over Northestern (MN). Loss to Stevens Point and Luther.
Luther 13-5: Win against Northwestern (MN) and Buena Vista. Losses to La Crosse, Stout.
Redlands 13-5: Losses to Whitworth and Buena Vista.
Platteville 14-6
La Crosse 13-6



Anyone else got some thoughts on this region or their guesses on other regions?

If you look at KS's regional rankings, it looks a bit different:

Rank	Team	WP	wSOS	wRPI	REG	D3
1	UW-Whitewater	77.8%	0.657	0.687	14-4	14-4
2	UW-Stevens Point	90.0%	0.600	0.675	18-2	18-2
3	Buena Vista	72.2%	0.620	0.645	13-5	13-5
4	St. Thomas	94.7%	0.518	0.626	18-1	18-1
5	Whitworth	94.4%	0.503	0.613	17-1	17-1
6	Luther	81.3%	0.545	0.612	13-3	13-4
7	Dubuque	68.8%	0.564	0.595	11-5	11-5
8	Augsburg	78.9%	0.526	0.592	15-4	15-4
9	UW-Platteville	62.5%	0.571	0.585	10-6	11-6
10	Concordia-Moorhead	66.7%	0.555	0.583	12-6	12-6
11	UW-Stout	77.8%	0.515	0.581	14-4	14-4
12	Redlands	76.9%	0.505	0.571	10-3	11-3

KS uses a blend of WP and SOS (I don't recall the exact percentages... 75/25? 50/50?)

These are obviously objective, based solely off the numbers.

Whitewater won't be above Stevens Point, even though WW has the #1 SOS in the country, because Point has 2 victories over them. Likewise, Point probably won't be above St. Thomas because UST won their matchup this year.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

When your SOS is below .500... you aren't going to get much love especially with 5 regional losses.

[Ralph Turner]

KS, I like your South Region rankings. 

Please remember that the SCAC still has a Pool A bid this year and neither Trinity TX or Colorado College are in your top 11.

UMHB only lost to Whitworth by 9 in the first weekend in Spokane.  (How many hours did you spend on the road to make plane connections from Belton TX until you are in your hotel in Spokane WA?)  I have always thought that a transcontinental flight was worth about 4 extra points for Home Court Advantage.

[NEPAFAN]

Why is Scranton not in your MA rankings?

Because they have a .737 winning percentage and a .487 strength of schedule.

I guess more emphasis on the SOS?

Messiah has a .588 winning percentage and a .567 strength of schedule.

They have beat Juniata twice...

[KnightSlappy]

If you look at KS's regional rankings, it looks a bit different:

Rank	Team	WP	wSOS	wRPI	REG	D3
1	UW-Whitewater	77.8%	0.657	0.687	14-4	14-4
2	UW-Stevens Point	90.0%	0.600	0.675	18-2	18-2
3	Buena Vista	72.2%	0.620	0.645	13-5	13-5
4	St. Thomas	94.7%	0.518	0.626	18-1	18-1
5	Whitworth	94.4%	0.503	0.613	17-1	17-1
6	Luther	81.3%	0.545	0.612	13-3	13-4
7	Dubuque	68.8%	0.564	0.595	11-5	11-5
8	Augsburg	78.9%	0.526	0.592	15-4	15-4
9	UW-Platteville	62.5%	0.571	0.585	10-6	11-6
10	Concordia-Moorhead	66.7%	0.555	0.583	12-6	12-6
11	UW-Stout	77.8%	0.515	0.581	14-4	14-4
12	Redlands	76.9%	0.505	0.571	10-3	11-3

KS uses a blend of WP and SOS (I don't recall the exact percentages... 75/25? 50/50?)

These are obviously objective, based solely off the numbers.

Whitewater won't be above Stevens Point, even though WW has the #1 SOS in the country, because Point has 2 victories over them. Likewise, Point probably won't be above St. Thomas because UST won their matchup this year.

+ a billion K for using my numbers correctly! Yes, it's strictly by the data (standard RPI so 25% WP, 75% SOS), and it's absolutely meant to be adjusted for head-to-head matchups and all that.

An odd thing I've found: seems to me that there are more .500's winning percentage teams with crazy high SOS numbers this year than in the past (they're cracking into my regional rankings with decent RPIs). Not sure if there's more parity across the division this year or what.

[ronk]

When your SOS is below .500... you aren't going to get much love especially with 5 regional losses.

If SOS equates with w/l record, I've got Scranton's OWL at 187-169(.525) with a road record of 5-1 for that adjustment

[Gregory Sager]

When your SOS is below .500... you aren't going to get much love especially with 5 regional losses.

If SOS equates with w/l record, I've got Scranton's OWL at 187-169(.525) with a road record of 5-1 for that adjustment

It doesn't. You subtract the games that the team in question played against its opponents when calculating SOS.

[ronk]

 Then subtracting the team's record of 14-5 raises the SOS/OWL % to .540(182-155), if I got u right.

[Pat Coleman]

Then subtracting the team's record of 14-5 raises the SOS/OWL % to .540(182-155), if I got u right.

SOS weights the opponents' record at two-thirds, with the opponents' opponents' record as one-third. Plus the home-road adjustment.

[Greek Tragedy]

Then subtracting the team's record of 14-5 raises the SOS/OWL % to .540(182-155), if I got u right.

I think this explains Knightslappy's formula to get SOS.

For away games, a multiplier of 1.25 is being applied to SOS, and for home games, a multiplier of 0.75 is used.

So, if I understand this correctly, if you are 9-9 with 9 home wins and 9 away losses, you actually aren't .500 regarding SOS/OWL% because home wins count less than away wins.

[Greek Tragedy]

Well, the 1st Regional Rankings come out next Wednesday, Feb. 6th. That means results through this weekend will count. 

Here's my quick view of what the West Rankings might look like, going into this week's games.  I may try to update my thoughts this weekend. 

Of course, I don't pretend to be an expert like some of you guys!

1. St. Thomas 18-1: Wins over Whitworth and Stevens Point
2. Stevens Point 18-2: Wins over Buena Vista, Augustana, Whitewater (2), Stout, La Crosse. Losses to St. Thomas and Concordia (TX)
3. Whitworth 18-1: Win over MHB.  Loss to St. Thomas
4. Whitewater 15-4: Wins over Aurora, La Crosse, IWU, Northwestern (MN). Losses to St. Norbert and Stevens Point (2)
5. Stout 15-4: Win over La Crosse. Losses to Whitewater (2) and Stevens Point.
6. Augsburg 15-4: Loss to St. Thomas

In contention 7-9

Northwestern (MN) 14-5: Win over Wheaton (IL). Losses to Buena Vista, Luther and Whitewater.
Buena Vista 14-5: Win over Northestern (MN). Loss to Stevens Point and Luther.
Luther 13-5: Win against Northwestern (MN) and Buena Vista. Losses to La Crosse, Stout.
Redlands 13-5: Losses to Whitworth and Buena Vista.
Platteville 14-6
La Crosse 13-6



Anyone else got some thoughts on this region or their guesses on other regions?

If you look at KS's regional rankings, it looks a bit different:

Rank	Team	WP	wSOS	wRPI	REG	D3
1	UW-Whitewater	77.8%	0.657	0.687	14-4	14-4
2	UW-Stevens Point	90.0%	0.600	0.675	18-2	18-2
3	Buena Vista	72.2%	0.620	0.645	13-5	13-5
4	St. Thomas	94.7%	0.518	0.626	18-1	18-1
5	Whitworth	94.4%	0.503	0.613	17-1	17-1
6	Luther	81.3%	0.545	0.612	13-3	13-4
7	Dubuque	68.8%	0.564	0.595	11-5	11-5
8	Augsburg	78.9%	0.526	0.592	15-4	15-4
9	UW-Platteville	62.5%	0.571	0.585	10-6	11-6
10	Concordia-Moorhead	66.7%	0.555	0.583	12-6	12-6
11	UW-Stout	77.8%	0.515	0.581	14-4	14-4
12	Redlands	76.9%	0.505	0.571	10-3	11-3

KS uses a blend of WP and SOS (I don't recall the exact percentages... 75/25? 50/50?)

These are obviously objective, based solely off the numbers.

Whitewater won't be above Stevens Point, even though WW has the #1 SOS in the country, because Point has 2 victories over them. Likewise, Point probably won't be above St. Thomas because UST won their matchup this year.

And to make myself clear, in now way was I comparing my subjective thoughts to Knightslappy's strict objective results by the numbers.  I actually posted my thoughts in the West Region board and then copied to the appropriate Pool C board here.

[ronk]

Greek,
  With all due respect to Knightslappy's objective data, my interest was in our subjective opinions on what the regional rankings "should" be.