Pool C

[AO]

National Committee and Regional Advisory Committee members can be found here, just FYI...

http://static.psbin.com/w/6/qxppu7z1rkr1ta/2013_Pre_Championship_DIII_Men-s_Basketball.pdf

Starting on page 10 of 32.

I wonder how the makeup of coaches affects the rankings. I would imagine that if Team A and Team B had very similar WP, SOS and the like, but Team A beat me soundly and Team B never played me, that I would be more inclined to vote Team A ahead of Team B.

That's why I typically wait until the first rankings are released before trying to make predictions.  The criteria is obviously the same every year, but the committees are always unique in the ways they use it and prioritize it.  Once we have one set of rankings it becomes easier to see what this particular group is going to do with the data this year.

Why have a committee?  Isn't this an online vote?  Give every coach a vote.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

There is a committee... and only the ones on the committee are allowed to vote... and only if they participated in the conference call held just prior to voting being opened up. You can't have all coaches voting when we know many coaches don't even pay attention to the criteria or understand it.

And yes, the regional committee chair does not vote.

[Titan Q]

With updated SOS numbers from KnightSlappy, here is a final shot at the Midwest...

Midwest Region ranking projection (through Sunday, February 3)
1.      Ill. Wesleyan  .833 (15-3)/.546
2.      North Central  .842 (16-3)/.519
3.      Rose-Hulman  .900 (18-2)/.485
4.      Transylvania  .789 (15-4)/.563
5.      Wheaton  .737 (14-5)/.549
6.      Washington U  .789 (15-4)/.547
7.      Augustana  .750 (15-5)/.558
8.      Grinnell  .824 (14-3)/.475
-----
9.      St. Norbert  .789 (15-4)/.516
 
Notes
* My criteria includes 1) in-region winning %, 2) in-region SOS, and 3) in-region head-to-head.

* In-region head-to-head results considered:
  - Illinois Wesleyan - wins @ Wheaton, vs Augustana, vs NCC, @ Augustana, vs Wheaton...loss @ Wash U
  - North Central - wins vs Wheaton, vs Augustana...losses @ IWU, @ Wheaton
  - Transylvania - win @ Rose-Hulman...loss vs Rose-Hulman
  - Rose-Hulman - win @ Transylvania...loss vs Transylvania
  - Wash U - win vs IWU...loss @ Wheaton
  - Wheaton - wins @ Augustana, vs NCC, vs Wash U...losses @ NCC, vs IWU, @ IWU
  - Augustana - win @ St. Norbert...losses @NCC, @IWU, vs Wheaton, vs IWU
  - Grinnell - win @ St. Norbert
  - St. Norbert - no wins...losses vs Augustana, vs Grinnell

* Since there are no actual regional rankings yet, I have not factored in in-region results vs teams who will be ranked in other regions.  For example, Transylvania's win over Wooster (Great Lakes), Augustana's loss at UW-Stevens Point (West), Wash U's results vs UAA teams ranked in other regions, etc.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I can't remember if they factor those in on the first rankings either... I remember there was a thought at one point that they rank... then they go back and rerank... but since the vote is done online and I don't think there is a contingency for a second vote... I am pretty sure the results vs. regionally ranked opponents does not apply to the first regional rankings.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I can't remember if they factor those in on the first rankings either... I remember there was a thought at one point that they rank... then they go back and rerank... but since the vote is done online and I don't think there is a contingency for a second vote... I am pretty sure the results vs. regionally ranked opponents does not apply to the first regional rankings.

Since the national committee goes back this year to the old way of reviewing regional committee's rankings even from the first round, might they factor in results vs. regionally-ranked opponents (perhaps including opponents ranked in other regions)?  Any idea on that?

[KnightSlappy]

I can't remember if they factor those in on the first rankings either... I remember there was a thought at one point that they rank... then they go back and rerank... but since the vote is done online and I don't think there is a contingency for a second vote... I am pretty sure the results vs. regionally ranked opponents does not apply to the first regional rankings.

Do you know what happens in the last ranking of the season? If, say, Randolph-Macon ended up sneaking into the bottom of the south region ranking, Catholic would (should) get the "credit" for another regional ranked opponent -- would this be an adjustment the national committee would make?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I can't remember if they factor those in on the first rankings either... I remember there was a thought at one point that they rank... then they go back and rerank... but since the vote is done online and I don't think there is a contingency for a second vote... I am pretty sure the results vs. regionally ranked opponents does not apply to the first regional rankings.

Since the national committee goes back this year to the old way of reviewing regional committee's rankings even from the first round, might they factor in results vs. regionally-ranked opponents (perhaps including opponents ranked in other regions)?  Any idea on that?

I doubt it - the adjustments are when they don't agree with the RACs interpretation of things... I am quite sure the RvRO just doesn't happen in the first rankings.

Do you know what happens in the last ranking of the season? If, say, Randolph-Macon ended up sneaking into the bottom of the south region ranking, Catholic would (should) get the "credit" for another regional ranked opponent -- would this be an adjustment the national committee would make?

It could be adjusted, sure... but I have a feeling usually the regional committees get a good sense of what is going on in the other regions. However, this is a valid point that they may not know... and in that case the national committee would make that adjustment accordingly.

[magicman]

Here's a copy of a post that I put on the SUNYAC board early Monday morning showing Massey's rankings of the top teams in the East. It wouldn't surprise me to see the top 6 teams on this list in the East Region rankings tomorrow. I think the top 3 are a lock in that order and the next 3 are probably in as well.



Here are Massey's ranking of the top East Region teams through games of 2-2-13.
The number after the team is Massey's National ranking. He may update these later today so the numbers may change a bit.

1   Rochester         7
2   Cortland           26
3   Stevens           50
4   NYU                54
5   Hobart             56
6   Geneseo          86
7   Oswego           87
8   Union              88
9   Plattsburgh      91
10 Ithaca             99

[7express]

I'm interested to see where RIC is Wednesday afternoon in the NE region.  A team that's 19-3 has a couple "good" wins (Brandeis, doesn't look too good now, only beat them by 2), MIT (by a lot [22?] but was without the two of MIT's better players), and is in a conference that is absolutely awful this year.  I'm wondering if they won out, lost in the LEC final if a 24-4 team (that would be their record in that scenerio) that's a perennial NCAA tournament team would be enough to get in??  I say if their ranked anywhere higher than 6th I say yes, 7th or lower I say no.  Thoughts??

[magicman]

I'm interested to see where RIC is Wednesday afternoon in the NE region.  A team that's 19-3 has a couple "good" wins (Brandeis, doesn't look too good now, only beat them by 2), MIT (by a lot [22?] but was without the two of MIT's better players), and is in a conference that is absolutely awful this year.  I'm wondering if they won out, lost in the LEC final if a 24-4 team (that would be their record in that scenerio) that's a perennial NCAA tournament team would be enough to get in??  I say if their ranked anywhere higher than 6th I say yes, 7th or lower I say no.  Thoughts??

KnightSlappy is showing them to be in pretty good shape in his regional rankings sitting in the 5th spot in the region and with a guaranteed pool C bid. If they finish 24-4 I think it's pretty safe to say they'll get a bid. Especially with their history of tournament play. Of the four teams ranked above them, 2 of them could get automatic bids and even if Amherst moves ahead of them bumping Rhode Island into the 6th spot, I'd still think they're a safe bet to get in. It will probably be the only way the LEC gets 2 teams in ths year is if someone upsets RIC for the tournament title.

With RIC beating Brandeis in their head to head matchup the regional committee might even have RIC ranked above Brandeis. And since Amherst also beat Brandeis and Williams it wouldn't surprise me to see the rankings something like this.

1.  WPI
2.  Amherst
3.  Williams
4.  Middlebury
5.  Rhode Island
6.  Brandeis
7.  MIT 

Massey's latest rankings has them listed like this:

1.  WPI
2.  Williams
3.  Middlebury
4.  Amherst
5.  Brandeis
6.  Rhode Island
7.  MIT

[Hugenerd]

Magic,

I agree with the first set of rankings you have for the NE for spots 1-7.  There is a clear drop off after 7, though, going by Knightslappy's rankings for 8-15.  In other words, they way things look currently, MIT seems pretty locked into that 7 spot, with the top 6 also locked into those spots in no given order.  The reason why I say that is MIT has either beaten or split with the top contenders below them, and hold a better winning percentage, while they are 0-2 vs. teams in the 1-6 spots (WPI and RIC).  For example, MIT has beaten Curry, Tufts, and Clark, as well as splitting with Springfield (and holding a better place in the conference and a better WP currently) and I dont see a 10 loss Wesleyan team jumping them even with a real strong SOS. I think WPI, the 3 NESCAC schools, and RIC seem to be in pretty good shape for an at large, with Brandeis and MIT still needing to do a bit more to feel comfortable about getting an at-large bids.  Should be interesting to see the rankings when they are released today.

[Ralph Turner]

Massey's latest rankings has them listed like this:

1.  WPI                       NEWMAC Pool A
2.  Williams                  NESCAC Pool A
3.  Middlebury              NESCAC Pool C
4.  Amherst                  NESCAC Pool C
5.  Brandeis                  UAA Pool C  (Rochester leads the conference and there is no tourney, unless I missed the change.)
6.  Rhode Island           LEC  Pool A
7.  MIT                       NEWMAC Pool C   --  looking like they might be 4th to the table.  In that region, that puts them on the bubble for me, that is, probably being on the table for the last Pool C bid's consideration.

[KnightSlappy]

I'm interested to see where RIC is Wednesday afternoon in the NE region.  A team that's 19-3 has a couple "good" wins (Brandeis, doesn't look too good now, only beat them by 2), MIT (by a lot [22?] but was without the two of MIT's better players), and is in a conference that is absolutely awful this year.  I'm wondering if they won out, lost in the LEC final if a 24-4 team (that would be their record in that scenerio) that's a perennial NCAA tournament team would be enough to get in??  I say if their ranked anywhere higher than 6th I say yes, 7th or lower I say no.  Thoughts??

KnightSlappy is showing them to be in pretty good shape in his regional rankings sitting in the 5th spot in the region and with a guaranteed pool C bid. If they finish 24-4 I think it's pretty safe to say they'll get a bid. Especially with their history of tournament play. Of the four teams ranked above them, 2 of them could get automatic bids and even if Amherst moves ahead of them bumping Rhode Island into the 6th spot, I'd still think they're a safe bet to get in. It will probably be the only way the LEC gets 2 teams in ths year is if someone upsets RIC for the tournament title.

With RIC beating Brandeis in their head to head matchup the regional committee might even have RIC ranked above Brandeis. And since Amherst also beat Brandeis and Williams it wouldn't surprise me to see the rankings something like this.

The head-to-head will certainly knock Rhode Island College above Brandeis.

1.  WPI
2.  Amherst
3.  Williams
4.  Middlebury
5.  Rhode Island
6.  Brandeis
7.  MIT 

I think this nails it.

[Greek Tragedy]

HERE are last year's Pool C winners. I will again be compiling the list with the week's schedule but it may not be up until later tonight with the 1st ranking coming out this afternoon.


POOL C BIDS

ATL
WK3   TEAM	CON.	REG/OVERALL	WL%	SOS	RvsRR
#3   St. Joseph's (LI)*  POOLC	SKY	21-2, 21-3	0.913	0.470	1-0	0-1
#4   Richard Stockton*	NJAC	17-6, 18-7	0.739	0.523	1-3	1-1
#5   New Jersey City	NJAC	15-6, 17-7	0.714	0.554	2-3	0-0
EAST
WK3   TEAM	CON.	REG/OVERALL	WL%	SOS	RvsRR
#1   Hartwick*  POOL C	E8	22-2, 23-2	0.917	0.523	2-0	0-1
#3   Hobart*  POOL C	LL	20-4, 21-4	0.833	0.517	1-1	1-1
#4   NYU  POOL C	UAA	19-5, 19-5	0.792	0.491	2-2	1-0
#6   Nazareth	E8	17-6, 17-8	0.739	0.549	0-4	1-1
GL
WK3   TEAM	CON.	REG/OVERALL	WL%	SOS	RvsRR
#2   Wittenberg* POOL C	NCAC	18-4, 20-5	0.818	0.539	6-1	1-1
#4   Ohio Wesleyan  POOL C	NCAC	18-6, 19-6	0.750	0.554	3-5	1-1
#6   John Carroll	OAC	15-6, 18-6	0.714	0.499	1-1	0-1
MA
WK3   TEAM	CON.	REG/OVERALL	WL%	SOS	RvsRR
#3   St. Mary's (Md)*  POOL C	CAC	17-5, 19-6	0.773	0.568	1-3	0-1
#4   Keystone	CSAC	20-5, 20-5	0.800	0.490	0-2	1-1
#7   Widener	MACC	14-7, 18-7	0.667	0.565	4-4	0-1
#8   Mary Washington	CAC	16-6, 17-8	0.727	0.522	3-2	1-1
#9   Albright	MACC	13-7, 17-8	0.650	0.546	4-6	0-1
MW
WK3   TEAM	CON.	REG/OVERALL	WL%	SOS	RvsRR
#2   Wheaton (IL)  POOL C	CCIW	17-5, 19-5	0.773	0.552	4-3	2-1
#3   Transylvania*  POOL C	HCAC	21-2, 22-3	0.913	0.508	3-0	1-1
#4   Lake Forest*	MWC	19-3, 20-3	0.864	0.520	0-1	0-1
#5   Illinois Wesleyan  POOL C	CCIW	17-6, 19-6	0.739	0.538	2-4	0-1
#6   Concordia (WI)*	NATH	19-4, 20-4	0.826	0.487	1-1	1-1
#8   Augustana	CCIW	18-5, 19-5	0.783	0.466	3-4	0-2
NE
WK3   TEAM	CON.	REG/OVERALL	WL%	SOS	RvsRR
#2   Middlebury  POOL C	NESCAC	21-2, 23-2	0.913	0.564	2-2	1-1
#4   Rhode Island College  POOL C	LEC	20-5, 20-5	0.800	0.586	5-4	2-1
#5   W. Connecticut  POOL C	LEC	20-5, 20-5	0.800	0.568	6-3	0-1
#7   WPI	NEWMAC	18-6, 18-6	0.750	0.587	2-3	0-1
#8   Wesleyan (Conn)	NESCAC	20-4, 20-5	0.833	0.506	3-2	0-1
#10   Keene State	LEC	15-6, 18-7	0.714	0.573	3-4	1-1
STH
WK3   TEAM	CON.	REG/OVERALL	WL%	SOS	RvsRR
#1   Mary Hardin-Baylor*  POOL C	ASC	23-1, 24-1	0.958	0.512	3-0	1-1
#3   Birmingham-Southern*  POOL C	SCAC	21-1, 24-1	0.955	0.455	0-0	1-1
#4   Randolph-Macon  POOL C	ODAC	17-4, 20-5	0.810	0.516	3-2	1-1
#6   Emory	UAA	19-5, 19-5	0.792	0.517	2-3	0-1
#7   Hardin-Simmons	ASC	17-6, 19-6	0.739	0.523	0-3	2-1
#8   Texas-Dallas	ASC	19-4, 21-4	0.826	0.475	0-2	1-1
WST
WK3   TEAM	CON.	REG/OVERALL	WL%	SOS	RvsRR
#1   Whitewater*  POOL C	WIAC	22-3, 2-3	0.880	0.551	5-2	1-1
#4   Stevens Point  POOL C	WIAC	17-6, 19-6	0.739	0.588	4-2	1-1
#7   Gustavus Adolphus  POOL C	MIAC	18-6, 19-6	0.750	0.517	2-1	1-1
#8   Puget Sound	NWC	14-6, 19-6	0.700	0.491	3-2	1-1
#9   Whitman	NWC	16-7, 18-7	0.696	0.518	1-5	0-1

[/quote]

[mailsy]

Here are the MidAtlantic standings in Massey vs Knightslappy's regional rankings:

Massey:
Team      Rec   Mass R   National      Reg
Catholic      19-2   0.69   14      1
St Mary's      19-2   0.69   15      2
Alvernia      17-4   0.52   31      3
Albright      18-3   0.46   39      4
Wesley      17-5   0.43   45      5
Arcadia      13-8   0.23   72      6
F&M             16-5   0.19   76      7
Dickinson      16-5   0.18   79      8
Salisbury      14-7   0.18   81      9
Cabrini      17-5   0.18   83      10
Messiah      12-8   0.17   84      11

Knightslappy:

1. Alvernia   MACC
2. St Mary's   CAC
3. Catholic   LAND
4. Wesley    CAC
5. Arcadia   MACC
6. Albright   MACC
7. F&M              CC
8. Juniata    LAND
9. Salisbury   CC
10. DeSales   MACF
11. Cabrini   CSAC
12. Messiah   MACC