Pool C

[ziggy]

Great Lakes makes sense to me... have you seen Calvin's SOS?

Yes, it is terrible. Like Thomas More's but without the losses.

GL committee must have chosen their six without ranking them then ranked after applying the results vs. regionally ranked. I still don't buy that getting Thomas More above Calvin.

The words from Mike DeWitt on his last Hoopsville appearance just don't jive for me with what the GL committee turned out. He was less than subtle in suggesting the importance of WP over SOS without officially suggesting it.

Calvin will battle a poor SOS for the rest of the year but that is just one view of the total picture. Other parts of the picture say Calvin is 3-0 compared to Wooster's 1-2 in games against common opponents and that while they have played a comparatively weak schedule, they haven't slipped up even once. It's one thing to knock a team for a bad SOS when they haven't dominated it, but Calvin has.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

First of all, results vs. regionally ranked does not apply in the first rankings. Secondly, I put this on the NCAC board as well:

Calvin's SOS numbers: 0.371     0.499     0.414

Wooster:                  0.565     0.525      0.552
Thomas More:           0.463     0.498      0.475
Ohio Wesleyan:         0.555     0.511      0.541

I can probably see an argument for Thomas More since the numbers are closer... but they should be undefeated when their SOS is that poor compared to the other two.

And I don't think DeWitt said WP was more important than SOS and by saying "without officially suggesting it" you are clearly putting words in his mouth. He did say that in the past the SOS was weighed maybe more heavily than the WP, but that doesn't mean the SOS should be ignored when it is as bad as Calvin's.

And when you speak of common opponents and because I have not looked it up as I post this, are those opponents all in region?

[KnightSlappy]

First of all, results vs. regionally ranked does not apply in the first rankings. Secondly, I put this on the NCAC board as well:

Calvin's SOS numbers: 0.371     0.499     0.414

Wooster:                  0.565     0.525      0.552
Thomas More:           0.463     0.498      0.475
Ohio Wesleyan:         0.555     0.511      0.541

I can probably see an argument for Thomas More since the numbers are closer... but they should be undefeated when their SOS is that poor compared to the other two.

And I don't think DeWitt said WP was more important than SOS and by saying "without officially suggesting it" you are clearly putting words in his mouth. He did say that in the past the SOS was weighed maybe more heavily than the WP, but that doesn't mean the SOS should be ignored when it is as bad as Calvin's.

And when you speak of common opponents and because I have not looked it up as I post this, are those opponents all in region?

Calvin 2-0 vs. Adrian, 1-0 versus Wabash. Wooster 0-1 vs. Adrian 1-1 vs. Wabash.

I'm also disputing how low they have Calvin's SOS. They clearly have Hope's in-region record wrong (should be 10-5 not 9-5).

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Thanks KnightSlappy!

[KnightSlappy]

FWIW, I don't believe SOS has even been weighed as heavily across the board as it was in this rankings. And I mean that in a positive manner.

I think that's why ziggy and I are a bit dumbfounded, we've seen too many Penn State-Behrend teams climb the GL ranks with horrid SOS numbers and a .900 WP.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Last year we saw it weighed heavily in some regions (Northeast and Mid-Atlantic come to mind) and not in others. I know it was a bone of contention for many outsides and even insiders.

[ziggy]

First of all, results vs. regionally ranked does not apply in the first rankings. Secondly, I put this on the NCAC board as well:

Calvin's SOS numbers: 0.371     0.499     0.414

Wooster:                  0.565     0.525      0.552
Thomas More:           0.463     0.498      0.475
Ohio Wesleyan:         0.555     0.511      0.541

I can probably see an argument for Thomas More since the numbers are closer... but they should be undefeated when their SOS is that poor compared to the other two.

And I don't think DeWitt said WP was more important than SOS and by saying "without officially suggesting it" you are clearly putting words in his mouth. He did say that in the past the SOS was weighed maybe more heavily than the WP, but that doesn't mean the SOS should be ignored when it is as bad as Calvin's.

And when you speak of common opponents and because I have not looked it up as I post this, are those opponents all in region?

Any points I make debating the rankings or selection process will always be within the context of the actual criteria. I'm at least good enough for that!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

That's fine... it was an honest question.

[Greek Tragedy]

ALREADY LOTS OF CARNAGE

TEAMS IN BLUE ARE CONFERENCE LEADERS

ATL	TEAM	CONF.	IN-REGION	OVERALL	SOS	SCHEDULE
1	Ramapo	NJAC	18-1	20-2	0.500	LOST at Rutgers-Newark 72-69; vs Richard Stockton 2/9
2	SUNY-Old Westbury	SKY	18-1	19-3	0.517	WON at NYU-Poly 93-81; vs SUNY-Maritime 2/9
3	SUNY-Purchase	SKY	16-4	16-4	0.522	LOST at Trinity (Conn) 68-66; vs. Farmingdale St. 2/9
4	Ricard Stockton	NJAC	16-5	16-5	0.519	BEAT Rutgers-Camden 60-45; at Ramapo 2/9
5	Rutgers-Newark	NJAC	15-6	16-6	0.525	BEAT Ramapo 72-69; at Rowan 2/9
EAST	TEAM	CONF.	IN-REGION	OVERALL	SOS	SCHEDULE
1	Rochester	UAA	18-1	19-1	0.580	at Chicago 2/8; at Washington U. 2/10
2	SUNY-Cortland	SUNYAC	17-2	17-3	0.514	BEAT Oneonta St 84-56; vs. Oswego St. 2/8
3	Stevens	E8	15-3	17-3	0.540	WON at Baruch 70-67; vs. Elmira 2/8; vs. Ithaca 2/9
4	NYU	UAA	13-7	13-7	0.612	at Case Western Reserve 2/8; at Carnegie Mellon 2/10
5	Hobart	LL	12-6	13-6	0.596	BEAT Union 85-82; at Vassar 2/8; at Bard 2/9
6	SUNY-Geneseo	SUNYAC	14-6	14-7	0.534	at Potsdam St. 2/8; at Plattsburgh St. 2/9
GT LK	TEAM	CONF.	IN-REGION	OVERALL	SOS	SCHEDULE
1	Wooster	NCAC	17-3	17-3	0.552	BEAT Ohio Wesleyan 74-67 OT; vs. Wittenberg 2/9
2	Ohio Wesleyan	NCAC	16-3	16-4	0.541	LOST at Wooster 74-67 OT; vs. Hiram 2/9
3	Thomas More	PrAC	17-2	18-3	0.475	WON at Westminster (Pa) 83-77; vs. Thiel 2/9
4	Calvin	MIAA	15-0	19-2	0.414	WON at Alma 90-66; at Hope 2/9
5	St. Vincent	PrAC	14-3	16-5	0.493	at Geneva 2/6; at Bethany 2/9
6	Marietta	OAC	16-5	16-5	0.488	LOST to Capital 70-67; vs. Baldwin-Wallace 2/9
MID-ATL	TEAM	CONF.	IN-REGION	OVERALL	SOS	SCHEDULE
1	Catholic	LAND	16-2	19-2	0.534	WON at Susquehanna 74-53; at Scanton 2/9
2	Albright	MACC	18-3	18-3	0.554	LOST at Hood 70-60; vs. Stevenson 2/9
3	St. Mary's (Md.)	CAC	14-2	19-2	0.546	BEAT Frostburg St. 73-53; at Marymount 2/9
4	Alvernia	MACC	16-4	16-4	0.562	BEAT York (Pa) 66-55; WON at Arcadia 64-47; vs. Widener 2/9
5	Wesley	CAC	14-2	17-5	0.509	BEAT Mary Washington 67-52; at York (Pa) 2/9
6	Scranton	LAND	15-6	15-6	0.539	WON at Drew 77-68; vs Catholic 2/9
7	Arcadia	MACC	13-6	13-8	0.579	LOST to Alvernia 64-47; vs. Lycoming 2/9
8	Cabrini	CSAC	14-4	16-5	0.490	WON at Cairn 99-76; BEAT Gwynedd-Mercy 80-68; vs. Rosemont 2/9
9	Franklin & Marshall	CC	13-4	16-5	0.512	WON at Gettysburg 56-49; at Swarthmore 2/9
MW	TEAM	CONF.	IN-REGION	OVERALL	SOS	SCHEDULE
1	Illinois Wesleyan	CCIW	15-3	18-3	0.560	BEAT North Park 88-44; at Carthage 2/9
2	Transylvania	HCAC	15-4	16-5	0.565	WON at Mt. St. Joseph 65-39; at Manchester 2/9
3	Wheaton (IL)	CCIW	13-5	16-5	0.577	BEAT Augustana 58-57; at Milikin 2/9
4	Washington U.	UAA	15-4	16-4	0.544	vs. Emory 2/8; vs. Rochester 2/10
5	North Central (IL)	CCIW	16-3	18-3	0.525	WON at Millikin 59-58; at Augustana 2/9
6	Rose-Hulman	HCAC	18-2	19-2	0.502	BEAT Franklin 72-63; at Defiance 2/9
7	Augustana	CCIW	15-5	16-5	0.549	LOST at Wheaton 58-57; vs. North Central 2/9
8	St. Norbert	MWC	15-4	15-4	0.525	BEAT Carroll 63-50; at Grinnell 2/9
NE	TEAM	CONF.	IN-REGION	OVERALL	SOS	SCHEDULE
1	WPI	NEWMAC	21-0	21-0	0.548	BEAT Wheaton (Mass) 86-59; at Springfield 2/9
2	Amherst*	NESCAC	20-2	20-2	0.553	at Williams 2/8; at Middlebury 2/9
3	Williams*	NESCAC	18-2	20-2	0.553	vs. Amherst 2/8; vs. Trinity (Conn) 2/9
4	Middlebury	NESCAC	16-1	19-1	0.527	BEAT Lyndon State 89-59; vs. Trinity (Conn) 2/8; vs. Amherst 2/9
5	Rhode Island College	LEC	18-3	18-3	0.544	BEAT Mass-Dartmouth 71-60; vs. Southern Maine 2/9
6	Brandeis	UAA	15-5	15-5	0.588	at Carnegie Mellon 2/8; at Case Western Reserve 2/10
7	MIT	NEWMAC	15-4	16-4	0.553	WON at Babson 69-53; vs. Clark 2/9
8	Curry	CCC	15-6	15-6	0.555	BEAT Western New England 71-60; at Endicott 2/9
9	Westfield St.	MASCAC	15-4	17-4	0.517	WON at Massachusetts College 71-69; vs Western Connecticut 2/7
10	Springfield	NEWMAC	15-7	15-7	0.559	vs. WPI 2/9
11	Eastern Conn.	LEC	14-4	14-7	0.517	BEAT Western Conn. 64-51; at Mass-Dartmouth 2/9
12	Albertus Magnus	GNAC	20-2	20-3	0.454	vs. St. Joseph's (Maine) 2/9
SOUTH	TEAM	CONF.	IN-REGION	OVERALL	SOS	SCHEDULE
1	Hampden-Sydney	ODAC	15-2	19-2	0.529	WON at Randolph-Macon 66-47; vs. Bridgewater 2/9
2	Mary Hardin-Baylor	ASC	18-3	18-3	0.552	vs. Schreiner 2/7; vs. Texas Lutheran 2/9
3	Christopher Newport	USAC	14-3	15-3	0.537	LOST to Virginia Wesleyan 79-66; at LaGrange 2/9
4	Concordia-Texas	ASC	14-4	16-5	0.536	vs Texas Lutheran 2/7; vs. Schreiner 2/9
5	Emory	UAA	14-5	14-5	0.561	at Washington U. 2/8; at Chicago 2/10
6	Virginia Wesleyan	ODAC	11-5	14-6	0.510	WON at Christopher Newport 79-66; WON at Eastern Mennonite 70-65; at Guilford 2/9
7	Lynchburg	ODAC	12-5	16-5	0.502	BEAT Roanoke 63-61; at Emory and Henry 2/9
8	Guilford	ODAC	13-5	16-5	0.530	LOST at Randolph 72-70; vs. Virginia Wesleyan 2/9
WEST	TEAM	CONF.	IN-REGION	OVERALL	SOS	SCHEDULE
1	St. Thomas	MIAC	20-1	20-1	0.545	BEAT Bethel 75-64; WON at Gustavus Adolphus 68-63; at St. John's 2/9
2	Whitworth	NWC	19-1	20-1	0.546	LOST to Whitman 93-90 OT; vs. George Fox 2/9
3	Stevens Point	WIAC	18-4	18-4	0.593	BEAT Oshkosh 62-52
4	Whitewater	WIAC	16-4	17-4	0.606	BEAT Platteville 64-50; vs. Superior 2/9
5	Stout	WIAC	16-4	17-4	0.538	LOST at La Crosse 62-48; at Eau Claire 2/9
6	Buena Vista	IIAC	15-5	16-5	0.557	LOST to Dubuque 73-58; vs. Luther 2/9
7	Augsburg	MIAC	15-5	15-5	0.526	BEAT St. John's 106-87; LOST at Carleton 63-58; vs. St. Olaf 2/9
8	Luther	IIAC	14-4	15-6	0.497	BEAT Central 72-66 OT ; at Buena Vista 2/9
9	Concordia-Moorhead	MIAC	15-6	15-7	0.509	BEAT St. John's 74-67; at Hamline 2/9

[KnightSlappy]

The NCAA has removed the data sheets and re-linked last year's final version.

[ziggy]

The NCAA has removed the data sheets and re-linked last year's final version.

The NCAA, ladies and gentlemen...

[slow clap]

[KnightSlappy]

That's what the NCAA would say. Any chance it's a matter of a game or two not being correct in terms of in-/out-of-region?

I've taken two teams -- Calvin and Alma -- and made sure all their opponents' regional record matched my records (I found 3 errors in my data, one in theirs) but still didn't come up with their same numbers. Stuck with simple OWP first, because it's easiest to isolate. As long as opponent W-L records match, it should be easy.

I get .379 for Calvin's OWP, they show .371.

Closest I can get is summing all of the opponents wins and losses (instead of averaging the percentages) -- that comes out to .371 -- but that's not the right way to do it and wouldn't include any HA multiplier. This is why I pulled up Alma -- but theirs didn't come out the same.

Good thing I saved a few of the data sheets onto my computer.

Just re-did Calvin's numbers by hand and I'm still getting a different number. Please check my work:

W   L   R   rW  rL   rPCT    HAM    wPCT    Opponent
4   15  W   4   14   0.222   0.75   0.167   North Park
6   12  W   6   11   0.353   0.75   0.265   Anderson
3   16  W   3   15   0.167   1.25   0.208   at Manchester
2   8   W   2   7    0.222   1.25   0.278   at Finaldia
7   14  W   7   13   0.350   1.00   0.350   Wabash at Elmhurst
10  6   W   10  4    0.714   0.75   0.536   Adrian
3   15  W   3   13   0.188   1.25   0.234   at Albion
4   16  W   4   14   0.222   1.25   0.278   at Kalamazoo
6   11  W   6   10   0.375   0.75   0.281   Alma
9   5   W   9   4    0.692   0.75   0.519   Hope
12  6   W   12  5    0.706   1.25   0.882   at Trine
5   9   W   5   8    0.385   1.25   0.481   at Olivet
10  6   W   10  4    0.714   1.25   0.893   at Adrian
3   15  W   3   13   0.188   0.75   0.141   Albion
4   16  W   4   14   0.222   0.75   0.167   Kalamazoo
                        
                     0.381          0.379   Average OWP


W-L columns are each team's W-L record as per the NCAA data sheet. The rW-rL are the revised wins and losses after taking out the games in question. Revised percentage, home/away multiplier, and weighted percentage should be more self explanatory. I get .379 still, but the NCAA showed .371. A small difference sort of, but there shouldn't be any difference.

I'm fully willing to accept that I'm going something wrong, but I can't see what it is.

[ronk]

 My annual refrain: how many inaccuracies of in-region vs. out-of-region games in the 1st rankings release? We have 1 citation already(Hope). Remember this affects teams that were ranked but shouldn't have been and teams that weren't but should have been, also, in addition to seeding and hosting in a couple weeks - too important to be left to the disinterested regulators who deny the opportunity to vet their data before they compose their rankings.
  Related issue: why the relevance of a D3 game should be affected by the distance between the schools(in-region vs. out-of-region. Every D3 game should be equally relevant. 

[sac]

That's what the NCAA would say. Any chance it's a matter of a game or two not being correct in terms of in-/out-of-region?

I've taken two teams -- Calvin and Alma -- and made sure all their opponents' regional record matched my records (I found 3 errors in my data, one in theirs) but still didn't come up with their same numbers. Stuck with simple OWP first, because it's easiest to isolate. As long as opponent W-L records match, it should be easy.

I get .379 for Calvin's OWP, they show .371.

Closest I can get is summing all of the opponents wins and losses (instead of averaging the percentages) -- that comes out to .371 -- but that's not the right way to do it and wouldn't include any HA multiplier. This is why I pulled up Alma -- but theirs didn't come out the same.

Good thing I saved a few of the data sheets onto my computer.

Just re-did Calvin's numbers by hand and I'm still getting a different number. Please check my work:

W   L   R   rW  rL   rPCT    HAM    wPCT    Opponent
4   15  W   4   14   0.222   0.75   0.167   North Park
6   12  W   6   11   0.353   0.75   0.265   Anderson
3   16  W   3   15   0.167   1.25   0.208   at Manchester
2   8   W   2   7    0.222   1.25   0.278   at Finaldia
7   14  W   7   13   0.350   1.00   0.350   Wabash at Elmhurst
10  6   W   10  4    0.714   0.75   0.536   Adrian
3   15  W   3   13   0.188   1.25   0.234   at Albion
4   16  W   4   14   0.222   1.25   0.278   at Kalamazoo
6   11  W   6   10   0.375   0.75   0.281   Alma
9   5   W   9   4    0.692   0.75   0.519   Hope
12  6   W   12  5    0.706   1.25   0.882   at Trine
5   9   W   5   8    0.385   1.25   0.481   at Olivet
10  6   W   10  4    0.714   1.25   0.893   at Adrian
3   15  W   3   13   0.188   0.75   0.141   Albion
4   16  W   4   14   0.222   0.75   0.167   Kalamazoo
                        
                     0.381          0.379   Average OWP


W-L columns are each team's W-L record as per the NCAA data sheet. The rW-rL are the revised wins and losses after taking out the games in question. Revised percentage, home/away multiplier, and weighted percentage should be more self explanatory. I get .379 still, but the NCAA showed .371. A small difference sort of, but there shouldn't be any difference.

I'm fully willing to accept that I'm going something wrong, but I can't see what it is.

Could it be Calvin's neutral site games are being incorrectly weighted as an away or home game in the NCAA's data?

[KnightSlappy]

Could it be Calvin's neutral site games are being incorrectly weighted as an away or home game in the NCAA's data?

Calvin only had one neutral game (vs. Wabash at Elmhurst Tournament), but even marking that as a home game only takes it down to .373. I'm sure there's a way to incorrectly label home/away to get to the .371 though.