Pool C

KnightSlappy · February 07, 2013, 09:51:21 AM

Just went though the same process with Thomas More and came up with a .443 OWP. NCAA's data had it at .463.

According to my hand calculations then, Calvin is -.008 points on the OWP and Thomas more was +.020 points. Assuming the OOWPs were right or at least close, this swing in OWP would account for one-third of the SOS gap between the two teams.

smedindy · February 07, 2013, 09:52:12 AM

Someone's not keeping the abacus oiled up in Indy....

wally_wabash · February 07, 2013, 10:03:23 AM

What? Things slipping through the cracks at the NCAA? Never. That is a tight ship over there.

fantastic50 · February 07, 2013, 11:56:36 AM

One of the weaknesses of the OWP metric is that it doesn't account for the difference between a schedule that is full of mediocre opponents versus one that has some solid opponents and some awful ones. A good-but-not-great team may rip through the former undefeated, but will lose some against the latter slate. Calvin's schedule seems lean a bit toward the latter, at least as compared to the SOS number. While they have no great wins, games against Trine, Hope, Adrian (and even Alma and Wabash) aren't "gimmes", especially when some were played on the road.

Wooster and Calvin have taken different roads, but appear fairly even in overall; I think you could make an argument for either being #1 in the region, especially when Calvin's out-of-region losses are dropped.

However, if Calvin is weaker than OWU or Thomas More, then the probability of Calvin being undefeated in-region would be very low. Since Calvin has won all of those games, Calvin should be rated higher. It's hard for me to see how Calvin and Wooster wouldn't be 1 and 2 in some order.

smedindy · February 07, 2013, 12:01:18 PM

As we saw last night (TCU over Kansas), there really are no 'gimmies' in hoops, especially on the road.

OK, maybe Medgar Evers' women's team (bless their hearts...)

Greek Tragedy · February 07, 2013, 12:51:55 PM

Isn't it sacrilegious to mention D1 hoops on here unless a D3 team is playing them?

smedindy · February 07, 2013, 01:03:02 PM

All data points are relative when you're making a valid argument!

ExBBaller40 · February 08, 2013, 03:01:12 AM

My blog post looking at the three regionally ranked teams from the WIAC and the one from the Midwest Conference and their first hopes at Pool C bids http://diiihoopsblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/blog-special-pool-c-chances.html

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 08, 2013, 05:10:44 PM

If anyone is curious, SOS numbers are back up on the NCAA site. You can get to them via the D3hoops.com blog.

John Gleich · February 08, 2013, 10:58:45 PM

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 08, 2013, 05:10:44 PM
If anyone is curious, SOS numbers are back up on the NCAA site. You can get to them via the D3hoops.com blog.

Did anybody get a good enough look at them before they were gone the first time to see if they're the same now, or if they changed?

KnightSlappy · February 08, 2013, 11:15:13 PM

Quote from: John Gleich on February 08, 2013, 10:58:45 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 08, 2013, 05:10:44 PM
If anyone is curious, SOS numbers are back up on the NCAA site. You can get to them via the D3hoops.com blog.

Did anybody get a good enough look at them before they were gone the first time to see if they're the same now, or if they changed?

The couple numbers I looked at makes it look like they're the same.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 08, 2013, 11:39:50 PM

They are the same... apparently there was a mistaken key punch or something that simply took them offline. Not sure that is a legit excuse... but I am under no impression anything was changed.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 11, 2013, 12:09:43 PM

For those of you I know want to know, there is a change in how the NCAA is calculating the SOS numbers... and it is for the better: Men's Strength of Schedule calculations changed

KnightSlappy · February 11, 2013, 12:56:03 PM

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 11, 2013, 12:09:43 PM
For those of you I know want to know, there is a change in how the NCAA is calculating the SOS numbers... and it is for the better: Men's Strength of Schedule calculations changed

Not for the better.

Pat Coleman · February 11, 2013, 01:04:53 PM

Disagreed, I guess.

The only reason the calculation was ever written in the handbook this way was because it was easier for the members of the committee to calculate, not because it was the right way to go. And despite that, it was still performed this way, not the way it was written, until recently. Perhaps even last season was the only time they performed the math as written in the book. Doing something "because it's easier" is how we ended up with the abomination known as the Quality of Wins Index. But we have computers and databases now, and easier isn't necessary.