Pool C

[John Gleich]

Grinnell swept St. Norbert. So shouldn't they be ranked before St. Norbert?

Surprised to see Augie still ranked and above St. Norbert. I understand SOS and all, but really?

Completely agree on St. Norbert/Grinnell - I don't get it.

Augustana beat St. Norbert, at St. Norbert (and not that it matters, but it was a blowout).  For me, head-to-head was applied properly here but not with St. Norbert/Grinnell.

I don't think head-to-head should make it automatic that they're ranked higher. St. Norbert has the .539 to .481 SOS advantage. And this committee loves SOS more than any committee in recent memory.

My point in saying that UWSP would remain above UW Whitewater was simply that WW didn't suddenly have something on their resume that should bump them above the Pointers.

On the other hand, Grinnell won a head-to-head matchup. That would seem to be a rather significant milestone, especially because they swept St Norbs, but it also raises Grinnell's win% at the expense of SNC's.

But, it should be noted, that not only does SNC still have a significant SOS lead over the Pio's, and they do still have more overall regional wins. That, and the fact that SNC was ranked and Grinnell wasn't... so there may have been more Midwest teams in between the two MWC teams... where, now, Grinnell is the first unlisted team.

All speculation, of course, because we can't see what we're not shown.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Per Grinnell - something just dawned on me. In the results vs. regionally ranked opponents. Grinnell is 2-1 and St. Norbert is 1-0... take out the head-to-head in that category and St. Norbert is 1-0 and Grinnell is 0-0. I have no idea if the committee would have considered it that way... but I found it interesting.

[Pat Coleman]

Some thoughts:
A win against West-3 UW-Whitewater probably carries a lot of weight.
Secondary criteria don't help Grinnell.
Remember, it's two head-to-head wins for Grinnell over St. Norbert, not just one.
Both 14-3 against common opponents (no common non-conference opponents).

[Hugenerd]

Per Grinnell - something just dawned on me. In the results vs. regionally ranked opponents. Grinnell is 2-1 and St. Norbert is 1-0... take out the head-to-head in that category and St. Norbert is 1-0 and Grinnell is 0-0. I have no idea if the committee would have considered it that way... but I found it interesting.

A little confused here, Grinnell is listed as 2-0 (both wins against St. Norbert) and St. Norbert is listed as 1-2 (one win against UWW and 2 losses against Augie and UWW).  If you take away the head-to-head, Grinnell is 0-0, but St. Norbert is still 1-2.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I miss-wrote something... Grinnell is 2-0... St. Norbert is 1-2... take out the head to head and Grinnell is 0-0 and St. Norbert is 1-0. Sorry about that - multitasking got the best of me.

[Titan Q]

I miss-wrote something... Grinnell is 2-0... St. Norbert is 1-2... take out the head to head and Grinnell is 0-0 and St. Norbert is 1-0. Sorry about that - multitasking got the best of me.

St. Norbert has in-region losses to Augustana and UW-Whitewater, right? 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yeah - got things confused with the head-to-head and such. Forget my previous...

St. Norbert has a win over UW-Whitewater and losses to Augustana and UW-Whitewater. Grinnell has just the wins wins versus St. Norbert.

[Mr. Ypsi]

And as I have stated in other places, St. Norbert has one more result versus regionally ranked opponents and has three more games regionally on their record. Not sure if those are determining factors...

And Knight, while I agree SOS is certainly a major factor, I have seen decisions not necessarily based only on SOS. It is also a change from when SOS was ignored for WP instead. I think we are seeing a little of both in these decisions across the country.

I would agree with Q that TWO h-to-h wins by Grinnell should outweigh a .058 difference in SOS.  But where I think they REALLY overused SOS is having Calvin 6th in the Great Lakes - their SOS is admittedly rather pathetic, but 16-1 should be enough to put them at least 3rd or 4th.  And if they were higher, it might have allowed Hope to slip in at #6, thus giving them (so far) 2 more RRO results, which might help Calvin in seeding (or even making the tourney if they don't win the AQ).

[KnightSlappy]

My final rant on the "new" OWP calculation method with what I think is "definitive proof" that's it's being implemented incorrectly.

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/2013/02/definitive-proof-that-ncaas-new-sos.html

Also, yeah, sorry about the rough writing. My wife was giving me "the look" that maybe spending hours at game then coming home to do blogging wasn't quite approved.

[Greek Tragedy]

I said this about a month ago.  When I was arguing in Grinnell's favor, it was because John Gleich was talking about head to head matchups.

Never too early for Pool C talk!   

I think Grinnell is already in bad shape.  They are currently 11-3, but only 10-2 in the NCAA's eyes with two games not in-region.  Another thing against Grinnell is that they only play 22 games.  The MWC is already at a disadvantage as it seems they are limited to just 23, so losing a game and then playing two games the NCAA doesn't count really hurts Grinnell.  Another thing that kills Grinnell is that their SOS is horrible, sitting at about 213 right now.  They don't have too many chances to raise that either.  They only play St. Norbert again as they only play Carroll once (a loss).  Sure, they could end the season, say, 21-3, but they would have to beat St. Norbert again, and possibly in the MWC tourney and then lose in the final.  That would help a lot. 

Though with the same record, St. Norbert is in better shape.  All of their non-conference games are in-region.  In addition, their SOS is much stronger, coming in at 62.  Unlike Grinnell, St. Nobert will have played some potential regionally ranked opponents in Augustana and Whitewater.  That helps in the decision-making process come March.  They are 1-1 in those games and also play Whitewater again.  Even if they go 1-2 against Augustana and Whitewater, that record against regionally ranked opponents is better than going 0-0.  I think Grinnell's saving grace would be for St. Norbert to be regionally -ranked and have a good record against them, 1-0 so far.  There might be a possibility that Carroll could also be regionally ranked, and St. Norb's plays Grinnell and Carroll again. 

Carroll's loss to Lake Forest really hurt.  They have another loss now and their SOS is 89.  Carroll has played two teams that could be regionally ranked.  They lost to North Central and beat Rose-Hulman.  However, they did lose to St. Norbert and beat Grinnell.  They do have one more shot at St. Norbert.  Of course, St. Norbert could also be regionally ranked. 

The first regional rankings are a long way off, so no need to worry just yet!

I never really thought Grinnell had a shot at Pool C, I was just playing devil's advocate.  Some of my points were corrected, like 10-2 is actually better than 11-3. 

Regardless, being the last team in the Midwest Regional Rankings doesn't give you much of a shot anyway.

[Pat Coleman]

Regardless, being the last team in the Midwest Regional Rankings doesn't give you much of a shot anyway.

Very good point. For the moment, MWC looks like a one-bid league.

Gotta wonder if Grinnell's November antics don't sit well with enough people on the committee that when they cast that secret ballot, they don't vote for the Pioneers.

[izzy stradlin]

My final rant on the "new" OWP calculation method with what I think is "definitive proof" that's it's being implemented incorrectly.

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/2013/02/definitive-proof-that-ncaas-new-sos.html

Also, yeah, sorry about the rough writing. My wife was giving me "the look" that maybe spending hours at game then coming home to do blogging wasn't quite approved.

Wow!  I hadn't followed any of these changes with the multiplier but this is really really bad.   It's a 4th grade math error by someone on the Championship Committee.   They used a multiplier on the number of wins and losses separately and didn't realize that this removes the multiplier when calculating a percentage!   

Anyone on that committee needs to change careers to a field that doesn't involve numbers or go back to grade school out of embarrassment. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Considering it is actually statisticians who do the number crunching and suggestions (and I don't think any committees asked for the change)... I am not sure we can hang this on the men's committee or any other... especially since the NCAA Championships Committee approved the change in September.

[AO]

Considering it is actually statisticians who do the number crunching and suggestions (and I don't think any committees asked for the change)... I am not sure we can hang this on the men's committee or any other... especially since the NCAA Championships Committee approved the change in September.

Why couldn't the men's committee point out the fault in the new SOS calculations?  If the Men's committee can add the multiplier to the SOS, what's stopping them from computing it correctly?

[Greek Tragedy]

ATL
RNK1	RNK2	TEAM	CONF.	REG/OVERALL	SCHEDULE
2	1	Old Westbury	SKY	20-1, 21-3	BEAT St. Joseph's (L.I.) 119-80; at Sage 2/16
1	2	Ramapo	NJAC	18-2, 20-3	BEAT Richard Stockton 74-64; LOST at William Paterson 61-60
5	3	Rutgers-Newark	NJAC	17-6, 18-6	BEAT Kean 79-62
4	4	Ricard Stockton	NJAC	17-5, 17-5	LOST at Ramapo 74-64; vs. Rowan 2/13
3	5	SUNY-Purchase	SKY	17-5, 17-5	BEAT  NYU-Poly 92-59; at SUNY-Maritime 2/14; vs. St. Joseph (L.I.) 2/16
EAST
RNK1	RNK2	TEAM	CONF.	REG/OVERALL	SCHEDULE
1	1	Rochester	UAA	19-2, 20-2	vs. Carnegie Mellon 2/15; vs. Case Western Reserve 2/17
2	2	SUNY-Cortland	SUNYAC	19-2, 19-3	BEAT New Paltz State 87-47; at Plattsburgh St. 2/15; at Potsdam St. 2/16
3	3	Stevens	E8	18-3, 20-3	at Alfred 2/15; at St. John Fisher 2/16
5	4	Hobart	LL	15-6, 16-6	WON at Rochester Tech 72-57; vs. Clarkson 2/16; vs. St. Lawrence 2/16
n/a	5	Plattsburgh St.	SUNYAC	15-6, 15-7	BEAT Potsdam State 92-69; vs. Cortland State 2/15; vs. Oswego State 2/16
n/a	6	Ithaca	E8	14-7, 15-7	BEAT Houghton 85-72; vs. Utica 2/15; vs. Nazareth 2/16
		DROPPING OUT
4	n/a	NYU	UAA		vs. Washington U. 2/15; vs. Chicago 2/17
6	n/a	SUNY-Geneseo	SUNYAC		at Fredonia St. 2/15; vs. Buffalo St. 2/16
GT LK
RNK1	RNK2	TEAM	CONF.	REG/OVERALL	SCHEDULE
1	1	Wooster	NCAC	19-3, 19-3	WON at Allegheny 86-64; at DePauw 2/16
2	2	Ohio Wesleyan	NCAC	17-4, 17-5	BEAT Wabash 79-64; at Denison 2/16
3	3	Thomas More	PrAC	19-2, 20-3	BEAT Bethany 73-69; at St. Vincent 2/16
n/a	4	Capital	OAC	17-4, 17-6	BEAT Muskingum 75-68; vs. Ohio Northern 2/16
5	5	St. Vincent	PrAC	16-3, 18-5	BEAT Waynesburg 67-59; vs. Thomas More 2/16
4	6	Calvin	MIAA	16-1, 20-3	BEAT Trine 61-59; vs. Olivet 2/16
		DROPPING OUT
6	n/a	Marietta	OAC		WON at Mount Union 93-81; at John Carroll 2/16
MID-ATL
RNK1	RNK2	TEAM	CONF.	REG/OVERALL	SCHEDULE
4	1	Alvernia	MACC	19-4, 19-4	BEAT Hood 70-59; at Messiah 2/16
1	2	Catholic	LAND	17-3, 20-3	WON at Goucher 71-43; vs. Moravian 2/16
3	3	St. Mary's (Md.)	CAC	16-2, 21-2	LOST at Salisbury 72-71; vs. Mary Washington 2/16
2	4	Albright	MACC	18-5, 18-5	WON at Lycoming 90-87; at Elizabethtown 2/16
5	5	Wesley	CAC	16-2, 19-5	vs. Salisbury 2/16
6	6	Scranton	LAND	17-6, 17-6	WON at Moravian 71-66; at Goucher 2/16
8	7	Cabrini	CSAC	17-4, 19-5	WON at Marywood 81-56
n/a	8	DeSales	MACF	17-5, 18-5	BEAT Wilkes 82-74; vs. Eastern 2/16
n/a	9	Dickinson	CC	15-6, 17-6	WON at Gettysburg 61-58; at Franklin and Marshall 2/16
		DROPPING OUT
7	n/a	Arcadia	MACC		WON at Lebanon Valley 77-61; at Widener 2/16
9	n/a	Frank & Marsh	CC		BEAT Johns Hopkins 73-54; vs. Dickinson 2/16
MW
RNK1	RNK2	TEAM	CONF.	REG/OVERALL	SCHEDULE
1	1	Illinois Wesleyan	CCIW	17-3, 20-3	vs. Millikin 2/16
4	2	Washington U.	UAA	17-4, 18-4	at NYU 2/15; at Brandeis 2/17
3	3	Wheaton (IL)	CCIW	15-5, 18-5	vs. Carthage 2/16
5	4	North Central (IL)	CCIW	18-3, 20-3	vs. North Park 2/16
2	5	Transylvania	HCAC	17-4, 18-5	LOST to Hanover 73-70; vs. Bluffton 2/16
6	6	Rose-Hulman	HCAC	20-2, 21-2	LOST at Earlham 68-66; at Hanover 2/16
7	7	Augustana	CCIW	15-7, 16-7	at Elmhurst 2/16
8	8	St. Norbert	MWC	16-5, 16-5	BEAT Ripon 57-52; at Illinois College 2/16
NE
RNK1	RNK2	TEAM	CONF.	REG/OVERALL	SCHEDULE
1	1	WPI	NEWMAC	22-1, 22-1	LOST at MIT 69-60; at Clark 2/16
2	2	Amherst	NESCAC	21-2, 21-2	WON at Middlebury 104-101 3OT; vs. Colby 2/16
3	3	Williams	NESCAC	18-3, 20-3	BEAT Trinity (Conn) 68-47; vs. Bates 2/16
4	4	Middlebury	NESCAC	18-1, 21-1	LOST to Amherst 104-101 3OT; vs. Wesleyan 2/16
5	5	RIC	LEC	20-3, 20-3	WON at Western Connecticut 69-60; at Keene State 2/16
7	6	MIT	NEWMAC	16-4, 17-4	BEAT Clark 69-44; BEAT WPI 69-60; vs. Wheelock 2/17
6	7	Brandeis	UAA	16-6, 16-6	vs. Chicago 2/15; vs. Washington U 2/17
10	8	Springfield	NEWMAC	16-7, 16-7	BEAT Clark 57-55; at Wheaton (Mass) 2/16
8	9	Curry	CCC	16-6, 16-6	LOST at Eastern Nazarene 100-80; at Endicott 2/14; vs. Wentworth 2/16
9	10	Westfield St.	MASCAC	17-4, 19-4	WON at Framingham State 77-59; vs. Fitchburg State 2/16
11	11	Eastern Conn.	LEC	15-4, 15-7	WON at Mass-Dartmouth 78-59; BEAT Keene State 93-84; vs. Mass-Boston 2/16
12	12	Albertus Magnus	GNAC	20-2, 20-3	WON at Coast Guard 87-82; vs. St. Joseph's (Maine) 2/14; at Johnson and Wales 2/16
SOUTH
RNK1	RNK2	TEAM	CONF.	REG/OVERALL	SCHEDULE
1	1	Ham-Syd	ODAC	17-2, 21-2	LOST to Virginia Wesleyan 78-77; at Emory and Henry 2/16
2	2	MHB	ASC	20-3, 20-3	vs. Howard Payne 2/14; vs. Sul Ross State 2/16
5	3	Emory	UAA	15-6, 15-6	vs. Case Western Reserve 2/15; vs. Carnegie Mellon 2/17
6	4	Vir. Wes.	ODAC	14-5, 17-6	WON at Hampden-Sydney 78-77; vs. Lynchburg 2/16
4	5	Concordia (TX)	ASC	16-4, 18-5	vs. Sul Ross State 2/14; vs. Howard Payne 2/16
3	6	Chris Newport	USAC	14-5, 15-5	BEAT North Carolina Wesleyan 93-67; at Averett 2/16; at Ferrum 2/17
n/a	7	Randolph	ODAC	13-4, 19-4	WON at Lynchburg 58-49; at Randolph-Macon 2/16
n/a	8	Texas-Dallas	ASC	17-6, 17-6	BEAT University of the Ozarks 67-50; vs. LeTourneau 2/16
		DROPPING OUT
7	n/a	Lynchburg	ODAC		LOST to Randolph 58-49; at Virginia Wesleyan 2/16
8	n/a	Guilford	ODAC		BEAT Emory and Henry 73-65; at Bridgewater (Va) 2/16
WEST
RNK1	RNK2	TEAM	CONF.	REG/OVERALL	SCHEDULE
1	1	St. Thomas	MIAC	23-1 ,23-1	BEAT St. Olaf 62-57
3	2	Stevens Point	WIAC	19-4, 19-4	WON at Stout 76-74 OT; vs. Eau Claire 2/16
4	3	Whitewater	WIAC	18-4, 19-4	WON at Oshkosh 75-58; vs. River Falls 2/16
2	4	Whitworth	NWC	19-3, 20-3	at Linfield 2/15; at Williamette 2/16
6	5	Buena Vista	IIAC	16-6, 17-6	at Wartburg 2/13; vs. Coe 2/16
5	6	Stout	WIAC	17-5, 18-5	LOST to Stevens Point 76-74 OT; vs. Oshkosh 2/16
9	7	Con-Moorhead	MIAC	17-6, 17-7	vs. Gustavus Adolphus 2/16
n/a	8	Whitman	NWC	13-6, 16-7	at Williamette 2/15; at Linfield 2/16
7	9	Augsburg	MIAC	17-6, 17-6	BEAT Macalester 88-64; at St. Mary's (MN) 2/16
		DROPPING OUT
8	N/A	Luther	IIAC		vs. Coe 2/13; vs. Wartburg 2/16