Pool C

[John Gleich]

Down goes Point.

Platteville 60 UWSP 56

Crazy stuff.

Only a Pool C impact if UW-Whitewater does not win the WIAC.

Platteville provides some bad match ups for Stevens Point. All three games were tight... SP won the first, Platteville won the next two.

[Titan Q]

Whitewater 63, Stout 59.


Plateville vs Whitewater for the WIAC.

Big-tme Pool C implications in that one...a UWP win pops a bubble.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Capital loses to Mount Union in the OAC semis.  That could be another Pool C spot gone.

[Rafi]

I've updated through Wednesday 2/21.  Notes about the data...

* In-region record is through Wed 2/21
* SOS is through Sun 2/17 (from data sheets)
* Results vs regionally ranked is through Wed 2/21


Pool C projection
1. UW-Whitewater (West, WIAC) - 20-4 (.833)/.581/4-3
2. Williams (Northeast, NESCAC) - 20-3 (.870)/.556/4-3
3. Washington U. (Midwest, UAA) - 18-5 (.783)/.567/6-4
4. Wheaton (Midwest, CCIW) - 17-5 (.773)/.568/4-3
5. Middlebury (Northeast, NESCAC) - 19-2 (.905)/.536/2-2
6. North Central (Midwest, CCIW) - 20-3 (.870)/.528/4-2
7. MIT (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 19-4 (.826)/.552/4-3 
8. Hampden-Sydney (South, ODAC) - 18-3 (.857)/.507/4-2
9. Emory (South, UAA) - 18-6 (.750)/.557/4-4
10. Transylvania (Midwest, HCAC) - 19-5 (.792)/.542/3-1
11. Ohio Wesleyan (Great Lakes, NCAC) - 20-4 (.833)/.537/2-2
12. Albright (Mid-Atlantic, MACC) - 20-6 (.769)/.544/3-1
13. Wesley (Mid-Atlantic, CAC) - 16-3 (.842)/.508/4-2 
14. Plattsburgh State (East, SUNYAC) - 18-6 (.750)/.545/4-4
15. Springfield (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 18-7 (.720)/.561/3-5
16. Rutgers-Newark (Atlantic, NJAC) - 19-6 (.760)/.534/3-3
17. Brandeis (Northeast, UAA) - 17-7 (.708)/.570/4-6 
18. UW-Stout (West, WIAC) - 19-6 (.790)/.536/1-4
19. Thomas More (Great Lakes, PrAC) - 21-3 (.875)/.499/1-2   
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20. Concordia-Tx (South, ASC) - 18-4 (.818)/.514/2-2
21. Scranton (Mid-Atlantic, LAND) - 19-7 (.731)/.530/3-1
22. Salisbury (Mid-Atlantic, CAC) – 16-5 (.762)/.521/3-4
23. Richard Stockton (Atlantic, NJAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.537/1-5
24. Eastern Connecticut (Northeast, LEC) - 19-4 (.826)/.499/1-2
25. Tufts (Northeast, NESCAC) – 16-5 (.762)/.524/0-5
26. SUNY-Purchase (Atlantic, Sky) - 20-5 (.800)/.498/1-2
27. Augustana (Midwest, CCIW) - 17-7 (.708)/.548/1-7
28. Concordia-Moorhead (West, MIAC) - 18-6 (.750)/.507/2-2
29. Augsburg (West, MIAC) - 20-6 (.769)/.505/1-3
30. Whitman (West, NWC) - 15-6 (.714)/.540/2-2
31. Ithaca (East, E8) - 16-8 (.667)/.537/2-4
32. Texas-Dallas (South, ASC) - 19-6 (.760)/.511/0-3
33. Oswego State (East, SUNYAC) – 19-7 (.731)/.501/2-5
34. Randolph (South, ODAC) - 14-5 (.737)/.502/2-3

Top "Bubble Bursters" (presumed Pool As that would be competitive in Pool C)
1. Amherst (Northeast, NESCAC) - 23-2 (.920)/.574/7-1
2. St. Thomas (West, MIAC) - 24-1 (.960)/.540/6-1
3. UW-Stevens Point (West, WIAC) - 21-4 (.840)/.586/7-2.
4. Rochester (East, UAA) - 20-3 (.870)/.572/7-2 
5. WPI (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 23-2 (.920)/.561/4-2
6. Virginia Wesleyan (South, ODAC) - 16-5 (.762)/.549/7-3
7. Illinois Wesleyan (Midwest, CCIW) - 18-4 (.818)/.539/5-3
8. Alvernia (Mid-Atlantic, MACC) - 22-4 (.846)/.549/4-2
9. Rhode Island (Northeast, LEC) - 23-3 (.885)/.530/3-3
10. Wooster (Great Lakes, NCAC) -21-4 (.840)/.554/3-1
11. Whitworth (West, NWC) - 21-3 (.875)/.526/2-2
12. Mary Hardin-Baylor (South, ASC) - 21-4 (.840)/.533/3-2
13. St. Mary's (Mid-Atlantic, CAC) - 17-3 (.850)/.531/4-3
14. Cortland St. (East, SUNYAC) - 21-3 (.875)/.514/4-3
15. Ramapo (Atlantic, NJAC) - 20-3 (.870)/.517/3-1
16. Stevens (East, E8) - 19-4 (.826)/.533/3-2
17. Catholic (Mid-Atlantic, LAND) - 20-3 (.870)/.520/2-2
18. Rose-Hulman (Midwest, HCAC) - 21-3 (.875)/.505/1-1
19. St. Vincent (Great Lakes, PrAC) - 19-3 (.864)/.495/1-1
20. Capital (Great Lakes, OAC) - 19-4 (.826)/.487/1-2
21. Calvin (Great Lakes, MIAA) - 18-1 (.947)/.441/0-0
22. SUNY-Old Westbury (Atlantic, Sky) - 21-2 (.913)/.491/2-1
23. St. Norbert (Midwest, MWC) - 18-5 (.783)/.534/1-2
24. Christopher Newport (South, USAC) - 17-5 (.773)/.535/0-2
25. Buena Vista (West, IIAC) - 18-6 (.750)/.561/1-2
26. Hobart (East, LL) - 19-6 (.760)/.538/0-4
27. Franklin & Marshall (Mid-Atlantic, CC) – 16-5 (.762)/.518/2-2


Let me know if you find Pool A vs Pool C issues, errors in data, or if something looks out of whack.

Q - I'm curious how North Central can drop a spot in your Pool C projections after beating the #1 team in their region?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Capital loses to Mount Union in the OAC semis.  That could be another Pool C spot gone.

Maybe, but Q has them only #20 on the 'bubble bursters' list.  I suspect it is more likely that Capital's bubble has burst.

Q, where would you put Capital on the Pool C list?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I think Capital just shot their tournament hopes out the door... like Scranton probably did last night as well.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think Capital just shot their tournament hopes out the door... like Scranton probably did last night as well.

Yeah, I just noticed the sub .500 SOS.  That's going to be a tough sell with five losses.  Scranton might be ahead of them on the list - and I don't think they have a prayer.

[KnightSlappy]

Capital loses to Mount Union in the OAC semis.  That could be another Pool C spot gone.

Maybe, but Q has them only #20 on the 'bubble bursters' list.  I suspect it is more likely that Capital's bubble has burst.

Q, where would you put Capital on the Pool C list?

Capital is done. They're likely behind both the MIAA and PrAC runner(s) up(s) in the final (transparently hidden) rankings.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I think Capital just shot their tournament hopes out the door... like Scranton probably did last night as well.

Yeah, I just noticed the sub .500 SOS.  That's going to be a tough sell with five losses.  Scranton might be ahead of them on the list - and I don't think they have a prayer.

I don't think Scranton thinks they have a prayer

[Titan Q]

Q - I'm curious how North Central can drop a spot in your Pool C projections after beating the #1 team in their region?

I projected both Wheaton and North Central to move ahead of Wash U in the Week 3 ranking (after Wash U lost @ NYU).  That did not happen...

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2013/02/20/ncaa-regional-rankings-week-3-2013/

So it's not really that I have NCC "falling", just rather my regional ranking projection was not right.  And I also think Middlebury has moved up by now having 2 wins vs regionally ranked.

[Titan Q]

Capital loses to Mount Union in the OAC semis.  That could be another Pool C spot gone.

Capital is done.

[Greek Tragedy]

I think Stout is out now. They needed a win over a regionally ranked team like Whitewater.

[Titan Q]

I think Stout is out now. They needed a win over a regionally ranked team like Whitewater.

Agree...I think Stout is out.

[ronk]

I think Capital just shot their tournament hopes out the door... like Scranton probably did last night as well.

Yeah, I just noticed the sub .500 SOS.  That's going to be a tough sell with five losses.  Scranton might be ahead of them on the list - and I don't think they have a prayer.

I don't think Scranton thinks they have a prayer

With the Jesuits, we always have a prayer.

[Rafi]

Q - I'm curious how North Central can drop a spot in your Pool C projections after beating the #1 team in their region?

I projected both Wheaton and North Central to move ahead of Wash U in the Week 3 ranking (after Wash U lost @ NYU).  That did not happen...

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2013/02/20/ncaa-regional-rankings-week-3-2013/

So it's not really that I have NCC "falling", just rather my regional ranking projection was not right.  And I also think Middlebury has moved up by now having 2 wins vs regionally ranked.

I was surprised that Wash U. didn't drop in the rankings.....I also thought they would after their loss to NYU. After the rankings came out, I went back to the criteria and tried a couple of things.  I have no idea how the committee 'blends' the criteria to rank the teams, but if they do something like ranking each criterion 1-8 (WvRRO is obviously harder to do this than with the others) and assigning that numeric value to each, AND then adding up what those total values are for each team......Wash U. would stay where they are doing this.  Whether college bball coaches put that much math into it might be questionable.

If IWU wins the conference tournament, they'll obviously stay on top of the rankings.  What will be interesting is what happens to North Central if they win the tournament.....their region win% would increase, their SOS would increase and their WvRRO would go to 6-2.  AND, I think Carroll might be on the cusp of entering the regional rankings if they do some damage in their conf tournament, which would take NCC's WvRRO to 7-2.

Obviously if NCC wins the tournament, they'll move from Pool C to Pool A, but I like to talk about the regional rankings.......because they not only have Pool C implications but hosting implications as well.  How they come up with the order is interesting and sometimes puzzling.