Pool C

[Mr. Ypsi]

Augie just cut it to 3 with two minutes to play.  Could we see four CCIW teams get in?

Nope.

NCC 70, Augie 63. Three CCIW teams'll get in, not four.

That tornadic wind you just sensed blowing by was thousands of bubble team fans and players exhaling.

[Hugenerd]

Only if MIT is ranked above Springfield in the region.  We could potentially see another "block" situation with Springfield now holding the 2-1 head to head advantage over MIT (the teams were ranked 6 and 7 in the region, respectively, this week).  If Springfield does lose tomorrow, MIT will hold nearly a 0.100 advantage in WP (0.800 vs. 0.704, or 3 less losses) and the SOS and vRRO would be close to a wash (MIT will be around 0.56, Springfield will probably be around 0.57, MIT vRRO is 4-4, Springfield would be 4-6).  If Springfield wins tomorrow, WPI and MIT are probably both locks.  Therefore, the NEWMAC championship game tomorrow could potentially open up or take away 2 Pool C spots!

[bopol]

So what do we have for locks right now?

Amherst/Williams
Middlebury
Point
Wooster
IWU
Wheaton
MIT
Rochester
Hampden-Sydney

Any of these?

Old Westbury
Stevens
Thomas More
Albright
Wesley

Not a good feeling about Thomas More.  I have a list of Top 23 potential Pool Cs that I think will get in (because they include teams that haven't secured Pool A yet and up to 6 teams in that list can get Pool A) and I don't have Thomas More in that group, though I think they may be the best team outside of that group.  They are definitely bubble for now.

[Ralph Turner]

So what do we have for locks right now?

Amherst/Williams  NE
Middlebury            NE
Point                     W
Wooster                GL
IWU                      MW
Wheaton               MW
MIT                       NE
Rochester             E
Hampden-Sydney  S

Any of these?

Old Westbury           A
Stevens                   E
Thomas More          GL
Albright                    MA
Wesley                    MA

As for locks?  I am looking who is on the table from the Mid-Atlantic and the Atlantic.

I think that Emory from the South moves off the table by now.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

So what do we have for locks right now?

Amherst/Williams
Middlebury
Point
Wooster
IWU
Wheaton
MIT
Rochester
Hampden-Sydney

Any of these?

Old Westbury
Stevens
Thomas More
Albright
Wesley

Not a good feeling about Thomas More.  I have a list of Top 23 potential Pool Cs that I think will get in (because they include teams that haven't secured Pool A yet and up to 6 teams in that list can get Pool A) and I don't have Thomas More in that group, though I think they may be the best team outside of that group.  They are definitely bubble for now.

Westbury seems shaky as well.

[Ralph Turner]

My question about Old Westbury is, does the Atlantic Region go 19 rounds without a team coming off?

Does an NJAC jump ahead of Old Westbury in the final rankings?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

My question about Old Westbury is, does the Atlantic Region go 19 rounds without a team coming off?

Does an NJAC jump ahead of Old Westbury in the final rankings?

I think "maybe" for the first one, although it's hard to imagine a conference call with each region represented and one of them not getting any Pool C bids.  Has that happened since expansion?  I know every committee is different, but the national committee has, in recent past, seemed to put more weight on winning percentage so long as the SOS is above .500.  That bodes well for Old Westbury.

On the second, I don't think so.

[Mr. Ypsi]

My question about Old Westbury is, does the Atlantic Region go 19 rounds without a team coming off?

Does an NJAC jump ahead of Old Westbury in the final rankings?

Considering the Atlantic this year, why not?

I've been prepping for the National Fantasy League, and even though other teams will get AQs, so far haven't bothered to check ANY team except Ramapo.  Once the bracket comes out, I'll check, but honestly, can you see any team in that region winning a tourney game against anyone outside that region except (maybe) Ramapo?

[KnightSlappy]

My kind-of-accurate-but-probably-not-really algorithm gives the following for Pool C:

Rochester
Williams
UW-Stevens Point
Middlebury
Illinois Wesleyan
MIT
Wooster
Emory
Randolph-Macon
Wesley
Plattsburgh State
Wheaton (Ill.)
Springfield
Concordia (Texas)
Brandeis
Stevens
UW-Platteville
Hampden-Sydney
Augustana
-----
Albright
SUNY-Old Westbury
Thomas More
Transylvania

[Ralph Turner]

My kind-of-accurate-but-probably-not-really algorithm gives the following for Pool C:

Rochester  E#1
Williams     NE #1
UW-Stevens Point  W#1
Middlebury             NE  #2
Illinois Wesleyan      MW#1
MIT                        NE#3
Wooster                 GL#1
Emory                    S#1
Randolph-Macon     S#2
Wesley                     MA#1
Plattsburgh State      E#2
Wheaton (Ill.)           MW#2
Springfield                NE  #4
Concordia (Texas)     S#3
Brandeis                   NE  #5
Stevens                   E#3
UW-Platteville           W#2
Hampden-Sydney     S#4
Augustana                 MW#3
-----
Albright                         MA #2
SUNY-Old Westbury        A #1
Thomas More                GL #2
Transylvania                 GL  #3

Corrections appreciated.

[ronk]

My kind-of-accurate-but-probably-not-really algorithm gives the following for Pool C:

Rochester  E#1
Williams     NE #1
UW-Stevens Point  W#1
Middlebury             NE  #2
Illinois Wesleyan      MW#1
MIT                        NE#3
Wooster                 GL#1
Emory                    S#1
Randolph-Macon     S#2
Wesley                     MA#1
Plattsburgh State      E#2
Wheaton (Ill.)           MW#2
Springfield                NE  #4
Concordia (Texas)     S#3
Brandeis                   NE  #5
Stevens                   E#3
UW-Platteville           W#2
Hampden-Sydney     S#4
Augustana                 MW#3
-----
Albright                         MA #2
SUNY-Old Westbury        A #1
Thomas More                GL #2
Transylvania                 GL  #3

Corrections appreciated.

I would have the MA be:
1. Albright
2. Scranton
3. Wesley

[Titan Q]

Updated through Saturday 2/23.  Notes about the data...

* In-region record is through Saturday 2/23
* SOS is through Sun 2/17 (from data sheets)
* Results vs regionally ranked is through Saturday 2/23


Pool C projection
1. UW-Stevens Point (West, WIAC) - 21-5 (.808)/.586/7-2 
2. Rochester (East, UAA) - 20-4 (.833)/.572/7-3   
3. Williams (Northeast, NESCAC) - 21-3 (.875)/.556/5-3
4. Middlebury (Northeast, NESCAC) - 19-3 (.864)/.536/2-3
5. Wooster (Great Lakes, NCAC) -22-5 (.815)/.554/3-2
6. MIT (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 19-5 (.792)/.552/4-4
7. Illinois Wesleyan (Midwest, CCIW) - 18-5 (.783)/.539/5-4 
8. Wheaton (Midwest, CCIW) - 17-6 (.739)/.568/4-4
9. Hampden-Sydney (South, ODAC) - 19-4 (.826)/.507/4-2
10. Emory (South, UAA) - 19-6 (.760)/.557/5-4
11. Wesley (Mid-Atlantic, CAC) - 17-4 (.810)/.508/5-3
12. Springfield (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.561/4-5
13. Albright (Mid-Atlantic, MACC) - 20-6 (.769)/.544/3-1
14. Plattsburgh State (East, SUNYAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.545/5-5
15. Concordia-Tx (South, ASC) - 20-4 (.833)/.514/3-2
16. Stevens (East, E8) - 20-5 (.800)/.533/3-3 
17. Transylvania (Midwest, HCAC) - 19-6 (.760)/.542/3-1 
18. SUNY-Old Westbury (Atlantic, Sky) - 21-3 (.875)/.491/2-1 
19. Brandeis (Northeast, UAA) - 17-8 (.680)/.570/4-7 
----------
20. Thomas More (Great Lakes, PrAC) - 22-4 (.846)/.499/1-3 
21. Rutgers-Newark (Atlantic, NJAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.534/3-4
22. Buena Vista (West, IIAC) - 18-7 (.720)/.561/1-2
23. Augustana (Midwest, CCIW) - 18-8 (.692)/.548/2-8
24. Scranton (Mid-Atlantic, LAND) - 19-7 (.731)/.530/3-1
25. Franklin & Marshall (Mid-Atlantic, CC) – 17-6 (.739)/.518/2-3     
26. UW-Stout (West, WIAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.536/1-5
27. Salisbury (Mid-Atlantic, CAC) – 16-6 (.727)/.521/3-5
28. Richard Stockton (Atlantic, NJAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.537/1-5


"Bubble Bursters" (presumed Pool As that would be competitive in Pool C)
1. St. Thomas (West, MIAC) - 25-1 (.962)/.540/6-1    vs Augsburg in MIAC final, Sunday 3:00pm
2. WPI (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 24-2 (.923)/.561/4-2   vs Springfield* in NEWMAC final, Sunday 1:00pm
3. Virginia Wesleyan (South, ODAC) - 18-5 (.782)/.549/8-3    vs Randolph-Macon in ODAC final, Sunday 3:30pm
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (South, ASC) - 23-4 (.852)/.533/3-2    vs Concordia-Texas in ASC final, Sunday 2:00pm

* I have Springfield on the wrong side of the bubble with a loss to WPI


Give the numbers for your team, or other teams for that matter, a close look.  I'm trying my best to update in-region winning % and results vs RR, but could be an error here or there.  Thanks.

[Hugenerd]

Updated through Saturday 2/23.  Notes about the data...

* In-region record is through Saturday 2/23
* SOS is through Sun 2/17 (from data sheets)
* Results vs regionally ranked is through Saturday 2/23


Pool C projection
1. UW-Stevens Point (West, WIAC) - 21-5 (.808)/.586/7-2 
2. Rochester (East, UAA) - 20-4 (.833)/.572/7-3   
3. Williams (Northeast, NESCAC) - 21-3 (.875)/.556/5-3
4. Middlebury (Northeast, NESCAC) - 19-3 (.864)/.536/2-3
5. Wooster (Great Lakes, NCAC) -22-5 (.815)/.554/3-2
6. MIT (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 19-5 (.792)/.552/4-4
7. Illinois Wesleyan (Midwest, CCIW) - 18-5 (.783)/.539/5-4 
8. Wheaton (Midwest, CCIW) - 17-6 (.739)/.568/4-4
9. Hampden-Sydney (South, ODAC) - 19-4 (.826)/.507/4-2
10. Emory (South, UAA) - 19-6 (.760)/.557/5-4
11. Wesley (Mid-Atlantic, CAC) - 17-4 (.810)/.508/5-3
12. Springfield (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.561/4-5
13. Albright (Mid-Atlantic, MACC) - 20-6 (.769)/.544/3-1
14. Plattsburgh State (East, SUNYAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.545/5-5
15. Stevens (East, E8) - 20-5 (.800)/.533/3-3 
16. Concordia-Tx (South, ASC) - 20-4 (.833)/.514/3-2
17. Transylvania (Midwest, HCAC) - 19-6 (.760)/.542/3-1 
18. SUNY-Old Westbury (Atlantic, Sky) - 21-3 (.875)/.491/2-1 
19. Brandeis (Northeast, UAA) - 17-8 (.680)/.570/4-7 
----------
20. Thomas More (Great Lakes, PrAC) - 22-4 (.846)/.499/1-3 
21. Rutgers-Newark (Atlantic, NJAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.534/3-4
22. Buena Vista (West, IIAC) - 18-7 (.720)/.561/1-2
23. Augustana (Midwest, CCIW) - 18-8 (.692)/.548/2-8
24. Scranton (Mid-Atlantic, LAND) - 19-7 (.731)/.530/3-1
25. Franklin & Marshall (Mid-Atlantic, CC) – 17-6 (.739)/.518/2-3     
26. UW-Stout (West, WIAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.536/1-5
27. Salisbury (Mid-Atlantic, CAC) – 16-6 (.727)/.521/3-5
28. Richard Stockton (Atlantic, NJAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.537/1-5


"Bubble Bursters" (presumed Pool As that would be competitive in Pool C)
1. St. Thomas (West, MIAC) - 25-1 (.962)/.540/6-1    vs Augsburg in MIAC final, Sunday 3:00pm
2. WPI (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 24-2 (.923)/.561/4-2   vs Springfield* in NEWMAC final, Sunday 1:00pm
3. Virginia Wesleyan (South, ODAC) - 18-5 (.782)/.549/8-3    vs Randolph-Macon in ODAC final, Sunday 3:30pm
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (South, ASC) - 23-4 (.852)/.533/3-2    vs Concordia-Texas in ASC final, Sunday 2:00pm

* I have Springfield on the wrong side of the bubble with a loss to WPI


Give the numbers for your team, or other teams for that matter, a close look.  I'm trying my best to update in-region winning % and results vs RR, but could be an error here or there.  Thanks.

You think Brandeis would overtake Springfield even though they lost this week?  I think Springfield stays at least ahead of Brandeis in that 19th spot (based on last weeks rankings, and the fact the Springfield went 1-1 this week, with a win vRRO, while Brandeis lost its only game).

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think they'll put Thomas More in.  Fantastic WP and they'll be over .500 SOS when you factor in the loss to St. Vincent.  They're exactly the kind of team who gets in at the end over a 7 or 8 loss team.

[Titan Q]

You think Brandeis would overtake Springfield even though they lost this week?  I think Springfield stays at least ahead of Brandeis in that 19th spot (based on last weeks rankings, and the fact the Springfield went 1-1 this week, with a win vRRO, while Brandeis lost its only game).

I agree that Springfield will be ranked ahead of Brandeis.  But I do think the WPI game is a "bubble burster" because it's very possible that...

1) A WPI win knocks Springfield lower than 19, and
2) I have Brandeis a couple spots too high right now.

In other words, with a WPI win, Springfield could end up #20 and Brandeis #21...or something like that.