Pool C

[Titan Q]

Ah, missed another. You have Transylvania and I have Albright still.

You know, that extra win vs regionally ranked I'm giving Transy for Randolph-Macon is actually a big factor for me.  4-1 stands out.

It's all a crap shoot!

[bopol]

I seem to be in the minority on Buena Vista...

Buena Vista lost to Carthage, and Augustana beat Carthage twice...so I see Augustana having a better chance than BV.  (But I don't see either getting in.)

Arg.  Don't remind me.  I thought Carthage could have gotten Augie and reached the CCIW tournament except for the Elmhurst fiasco.

Ok, I'll think more on Buena Vista.  Honestly, that's my last team in, so it's not like I'm overly wedded to it.

[KnightSlappy]

Ah, missed another. You have Transylvania and I have Albright still.

You know, that extra win vs regionally ranked I'm giving Transy for Randolph-Macon is actually a big factor for me.  4-1 stands out.

It's all a crap shoot!

HA! Yes, I wasn't including any new teams to the rankings, but adding Randolph-Macon to the list is enough to bump Transylvania to my #18 spot (bumping Albright off).

I've updated my previous projection post.

[sac]

Sell me on Transylvania being ranked ahead of Hanover who beat them 3 times.

[KnightSlappy]

Sell me on Transylvania being ranked ahead of Hanover who beat them 3 times.

Transylvania was #5 in the Midwest and Hanover was unranked. That's a lot of ground for that final head-to-head to make up.

[Titan Q]

Sell me on Transylvania being ranked ahead of Hanover who beat them 3 times.

Transylvania - 19-6 (.760)/.548/4-1 
Hanover - 18-7 (.720)/.524/.3-3

Just a little better numbers.  It's like the 2008 situation I mentioned earlier, when IWU beat Wheaton 3 times, but Wheaton had a better overall resume and was ranked higher.

The Midwest committee wouldn't be giving its region the best chance to maximize Pool C bids if it ranked Hanover higher.

[SevenTen]

Changing focus a bit from the bubble...  Who do our experts think are the most likely to be setup with 3 home games (if they keep winning) before Salem?  Obviously things will change as games go on, but the selection committee has to have it in their minds with the original brackets.

Thoughts?  Would be 8 teams right if it all went chalk I think...

[Titan Q]

Changing focus a bit from the bubble...  Who do our experts think are the most likely to be setup with 3 home games (if they keep winning) before Salem?  Obviously things will change as games go on, but the selection committee has to have it in their minds with the original brackets.

Thoughts?  Would be 8 teams right if it all went chalk I think...

The problem is that the teams I see as the top 8 are not all geographically spread out.  I have not thought about this order, but these are the 8 that come to mind for me...

1. Amherst
2. St. Thomas
3. UW-Whitewater
4. Williams
5. WPI
6. UW-Whitewater
7. Rochester
8. North Central

[KnightSlappy]

Changing focus a bit from the bubble...  Who do our experts think are the most likely to be setup with 3 home games (if they keep winning) before Salem?  Obviously things will change as games go on, but the selection committee has to have it in their minds with the original brackets.

Thoughts?  Would be 8 teams right if it all went chalk I think...

The problem is that the teams I see as the top 8 are not all geographically spread out.  I have not thought about this order, but these are the 8 that come to mind for me...

1. Amherst
2. St. Thomas
3. UW-Whitewater <----
4. Williams
5. WPI
6. UW-Whitewater <----- They're just that good! (Guessing this is UWSP)
7. Rochester
8. North Central

for my algorithm it's:

Amherst
St. Thomas
WPI
UW-Whitewater
Rochester
North Central (Ill.)
UW-Stevens Point
Williams

That's not considering geography either. Looks like Titan Q and I are very much on the same page here.

[bopol]

For Top 8 for Home Games:

1) Amhurst
2) WPI
3) St. Thomas
4) UW - Whitewater
5) Alveria
6) Wash U
7) UW - SP
8) Rochester

I think Alveria may get it for a little regional balance.  I also think Rochester's late season slide could hurt them, but they will get it over another Midwest area club (North Central).  I could see North Central getting Washington's spot though.

[Jon]

For Top 8 for Home Games:

1) Amhurst
2) WPI
3) St. Thomas
4) UW - Whitewater
5) Alveria
6) Wash U
7) UW - SP
8) Rochester

I think Alvernia may get it for a little regional balance.  I also think Rochester's late season slide could hurt them, but they will get it over another Midwest area club (North Central).  I could see North Central getting Washington's spot though.

Thanks for the consideration bopol.  To date the Crusaders have played three home games in NCAA Championships.  Would be great to double that number in one year at the newly-named Jack McCloskey Court.

[SevenTen]

I keep hearing that most people are excited about this bracket more than in the past (due to the flexibility with 30 hosts)... I'm worried it'll be the opposite of that.  I think the bracket is going to get very compressed compared to before (teams playing teams they've already played / who they are close to early on).

Here's why:  In years past you could grab 3 teams all 400 miles from one central host and put them in one pod together.  This allowed for some teams who were 600, 700, 800 miles from each other to play in the first or second round.

This year, I think the committee will just scoop up a lot of teams within 500 miles of each other and put them in the same area of the bracket... for flight reasons.  They'll want all possible second round match-ups to be within 500 miles of each other which means 1st round match-ups will be compressed too.

I'm just not seeing the "flexibility".  I think they'll have to plan for the worst and end up with lots of teams close to each other playing each other in the first few rounds.  Can someone help clarify what I'm missing?

[7express]

Btw, with the 30 first round hosts, what effect, if any, will it have for hosting both a men's and women's first round??

I.e. could Amherst women host the first 2 rounds Friday & Saturday since the Amherst men (if they don't get a bye) would only be playing 1 game??
Catholic, Calvin 2 other schools that are probably in line to host a women's pod and a men's first round game.  I could probably come up with a few others, but those are the 3 main ones.

[SevenTen]

Btw, with the 30 first round hosts, what effect, if any, will it have for hosting both a men's and women's first round??

I.e. could Amherst women host the first 2 rounds Friday & Saturday since the Amherst men (if they don't get a bye) would only be playing 1 game??
Catholic, Calvin 2 other schools that are probably in line to host a women's pod and a men's first round game.  I could probably come up with a few others, but those are the 3 main ones.

I do think this is one of the big pluses of the format.  Two games on Friday (both women's) and then two on Saturday (one each) should be totally do able and not a problem.  Much better than 6 games (aka two pods).

[Greek Tragedy]

I don't want to poo poo on Stevens Point's chances, but I'm not real confident.  Point has been without their pre-season all-american Tyler Tillema since the new year.  They went an impressive 14-2 in conference and 21-5 overall.  But, looking at the last 7 games, I don't think any Pointer fan is real high on their chances in the tourney.  Overall, the individual players have been inconsistent at best.  From D1-transfer Heuer to Ritchay and even DeVon Jackson, there always seems to be a missing piece in a game.  Their last 7 games (4-3) are hardly impressive going into the NCAAs.  I'm not taking anything away from the likes of La Crosse, Platteville or even Stout, but it's been a grind, losing to Platteville twice and La Crosse once, and going into OT with Stout.  I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not sure what to expect from this Pointer team this year in the NCAAs. 

The good news is that it looks like Tyler Tillema will get a medical waiver and come back next year.