Pool C

[monsoon]

But if you've already beaten them twice, then the chances of beating them the third time is roughly 50%.

+1. My wife just looked over her shoulder at me to see what I was snickering at.

Actually, if you have already beaten the team twice, that is a fair amount of evidence that either 1) you are better than them, or 2) you have specific match-up advantages over them.  I would think the probability is higher than 50%.

Gregory Sager must not be seeing this thread recently, as he HATES that cliche!

That's probably for the best for all of us at the moment.   

[7express]

That's true, but still I'd rather play a team that we went 1-1 or 0-2 against then 2-0.  To each his own.

[Greek Tragedy]

Does that count preseason?

[David Collinge]

That's true, but still I'd rather play a team that we went 1-1 or 0-2 against then 2-0.  To each his own.

Well, then, you really want to be Wittenberg again tomorrow night. They got lucky as the team they beat twice (OWU) fell at Wooster, who have beaten the Tigers five straight times.

[USee]

#22 Wittenberg (GL #6), which had lost two regular season games to DePauw (GL #5) by 26 and 22, defeats the Tigers 63-61. Witt advances to the NCAC Championship game against #8 Wooster (GL #1) or Ohio Wesleyan (GL #7), while DePauw (19-8) moves to the far outer edge of the bubble.

Very difficult to beat a good team 3 times in 1 season.  I know I would much rather have Western Connecticut play a team they lost to twice in the regular season in the LEC tournament then a team they beat twice during the season.

If two teams are evenly matched, then the chances of beating them three times in a season is roughly 12.5%.

But if you've already beaten them twice, then the chances of beating them the third time is roughly 50%.

Wheaton just beat Augie for the  3rd time this season.

[KnightSlappy]

But if you've already beaten them twice, then the chances of beating them the third time is roughly 50%.

+1. My wife just looked over her shoulder at me to see what I was snickering at.

Actually, if you have already beaten the team twice, that is a fair amount of evidence that either 1) you are better than them, or 2) you have specific match-up advantages over them.  I would think the probability is higher than 50%.

Gregory Sager must not be seeing this thread recently, as he HATES that cliche!

The scenario I proposed presupposed evenly matched teams.

[Mr. Ypsi]

But if you've already beaten them twice, then the chances of beating them the third time is roughly 50%.

+1. My wife just looked over her shoulder at me to see what I was snickering at.

Actually, if you have already beaten the team twice, that is a fair amount of evidence that either 1) you are better than them, or 2) you have specific match-up advantages over them.  I would think the probability is higher than 50%.

Gregory Sager must not be seeing this thread recently, as he HATES that cliche!

The scenario I proposed presupposed evenly matched teams.

I realize that, but the evidence is that they are not.

[7express]

Staten Island loses to York 87-84 in the CUNYAC championship game.  Not good for somebody, of course that somebody could be Staten Island though.

[bopol]

My Top 12 Pool C teams are:

* Randolph-Macon
* UW Whitewater
* Williams
* Wesley
* Babson
* Wheaton
* Augustana
* Plattsburgh St
* Geneseo St
* Staten Island
* William Patterson
* Emory

At that point, my guess on who will be on the table is:

NE - Springfield
E - NYU
Atl - Rutgers - Newark
Mid Atl - Alvernia or Messiah
South - Birmingham Southern
MW - Carthage
West - St Olaf
Great Lakes - ummm, Wittenburg?

All those teams have fundamental flaws that makes me wonder where this might go.

[Greek Tragedy]

GREEN is Pool A bid/#1 seed/Conference leader

POOL C contender

TEAM-ATLANTIC	RECORD	CON	SCHEDULE
SUNY-Purchase	23-2, 23-2	SKY	WON vs SUNY-Old Westbury 88-73; vs Mount St. Mary in Final 3/1
Richard Stockton	21-4, 21-4	NJAC	WON vs Kean 64-63; vs William Paterson in Final 3/1
Staten Island	24-2, 24-2	CUNYAC	WON vs Hunter 92-74; LOST vs York (N.Y.) 87-84 in Final
William Paterson	20-5, 20-5	NJAC	WON vs Rutgers-Newark 75-66; vs Richard Stockton in Final 3/1
Rutgers-Newark	19-7, 19-7	NJAC	LOST at William Paterson 75-66 in semifinal
Mt. St. Mary (N.Y.)	20-5, 20-5	SKY	WON vs Farmingdale State 95-75; vs SUNY-Purchase in Final 3/1
TEAM-EAST	RECORD	CON	SCHEDULE
Brockport State	21-3, 22-3	SUNYAC	WON vs Oswego 77-56; vs Plattsburgh State in Final 3/1
Plattsburgh State	21-4, 21-4	SUNYAC	WON vs Geneseo 73-69; vs Brockport State in Final 3/1
Geneseo State	19-5, 20-5	SUNYAC	WON vs Oneonta State 79-67; LOST vs Plattsburgh St. 73-69 in semifinal
Hobart	19-6, 19-6	LL	WON vs Clarkson 78-69 OT; vs Vassar in Final 3/1
NYU	16-8, 16-8	UAA	at Brandeis 3/2
Skidmore	16-9, 16-9	LL	LOST to Vassar 66-62 in LL semifinal COMPLETE
TEAM-GREAT-LAKES	RECORD	CON	SCHEDULE
Wooster	21-2, 22-3	NCAC	WON vs. Oberlin 89-56; WONvs Ohio Wesleyan 78-67; vs Wittenberg in Final 3/1
Hope	18-5, 19-6	MIAA	WON vs Trine 65-62 OT; vs Calvin in Final 3/1
Bethany	20-4, 21-4	PAC	LOST vs Geneva 61-59 in quarterfinals
Mount Union	20-5, 20-5	OAC	LOST John Carroll 83-81 in semifinal
DePauw	17-7, 18-7	NCAC	WON vs Wabash 73-59; LOST vs Wittenberg 63-61 in semifinal 2/28
Wittenberg	19-6, 19-6	NCAC	WON vs Denison 64-49; WON vs DePauw 63-61; vs Wooster in Final 3/1
Ohio Wesleyan	19-6, 19-6	NCAC	WON vs Kenyon 78-67; LOST vs Wooster 78-67 in semifinal
TEAM-MIDDLE-ATLANTIC	RECORD	CON	SCHEDULE
Cabrini	23-1, 23-1	CSAC	WON vs Rosemont 109-97; WON vs Neumann 96-79 in Final
Scranton	22-3, 22-3	LAND	WON vs Merchant Marine 82-64; vs Susquechanna in Final 3/1
Wesley	20-2, 22-2	CAC	LOST vs Christopher Newport 59-54 in semifinal
Dickinson	20-5, 20-5	CC	WON vs McDaniel 77-63; vs Johns Hopkins in Final 3/1
Stevenson	18-7, 18-7	MACC	WON vs Hood 83-72; vs Alvernia in Final 3/1
Messiah	19-5, 19-5	MACC	LOST vs Alvernia 81-77 in MACC semifinal
Alvernia	18-7, 18-7	MACC	WON vs Messiah 81-77; vs Stevenson in Final 3/1
Mary Washington	18-5, 20-5	CAC	WON  St. Mary's (Md.) 70-65; vs Christopher Newport in Final 3/1
St. Mary's (Md.)	15-7, 18-7	CAC	LOST vs Mary Washington 70-65 in semifinal
TEAM-MIDWEST	RECORD	CON	SCHEDULE
Washington U.	22-2, 22-2	UAA	at Chicago 3/1
Illinois Wesleyan	22-3, 22-3	CCIW	WON vs Carthage 76-71; vs Wheaton in Final 3/1
Wheaton (Ill.)	17-8, 17-8	CCIW	WON vs Augustana 66-55; vs Illinois Wesleyan in Final 3/1
Augustana	19-6, 19-6	CCIW	LOST vs Wheaton (IL) 66-55 in semifinal
St. Norbert	21-1, 22-1	MWC	WON vs Carroll in semifinal 2/28
Carthage	15-8, 16-9	CCIW	LOST at Illinois Wesleyan 76-71 in semifinal
Rose-Hulman	20-5, 20-5	HCAC	WON vs Mount St. Joseph 68-54; vs Hanover in Final 3/1
Chicago	14-9, 15-9	UAA
TEAM-NORTHEAST	RECORD	CON	SCHEDULE
Amherst	22-3, 22-3	NESCAC	vs Trinity (CT) in semifinal 3/1
Williams	21-3, 22-3	NESCAC	vs Middlebury in semifinal 3/1
Babson	20-5, 20-5	NEWMAC	vs Springfield in semifinal 3/1
Eastern Connecticut	20-5, 20-5	LEC	WON vs Mass-Boston 61-55; WON vs Western Connecticut 88-75; vs RIC in Final 3/1
WPI	22-3, 22-3	NEWMAC	vs MIT in semifinal 3/1
Springfield	18-6, 19-6	NEWMAC	vs Babson in semifinal 3/1
Bowdoin	19-5, 19-5	NESCAC	LOST to Trinity (Conn.) 71-67 3OT in semifinal
Albertus Magnus	23-1, 23-2	GNAC	WON vs Norwich 87-69; WON vs Lasell 91-72; vs St. Joseph's (Me.) in Final 3/1
Nichols	20-5, 20-5	CCC	WON vs Western New England 73-54; WON vs Salva Regina 83-80 OT; vs Gordon in Final 3/1
Rhode Island College	17-8, 17-8	LEC	WON vs Southern Maine 74-66; WON vs Mass-Dartmouth 82-69; vs Eastern Connecticut in Final 3/1
Middlebury	16-8, 17-8	NESCAC	vs Williams in semifinal 3/1
TEAM-SOUTH	RECORD	CON	SCHEDULE
Randolph-Macon	20-5, 20-5	ODAC	LOST vs Hampden-Sydney 68-55 in quarterfinal
Emory	17-7, 17-7	UAA	at Rochester 3/1
Virgina Wesleyan	18-6, 19-6	ODAC	WON vs Bridgewater 91-70; vs Washington and Lee in semifinal 3/1
Texas-Dallas	22-3, 22-3	ASC	WON vs East Texas Baptist 80-65; vs Texas-Tyler in semifinal 3/1
Centre	17-3, 20-4	SAA	WON vs Berry 77-60; vs Rhodes in semifinal 3/1
Birmingham-Southern	16-9, 16-9	SAA	WON vs Hendrix 77-62; vs Oglethorpe in semfinal 3/1
Guilford	17-8, 17-8	ODAC	LOST vs Washington and Lee 77-70 in quarterfinal
Trinity (TX)	16-9, 16-9	SCAC	WON vs Texas Lutheran 78-65; vs Colorado College in semifinal 3/1
TEAM-WEST	RECORD	CON	SCHEDULE
UW-Stevens Point	24-1, 24-1	WIAC	WON vs Platteville 66-47; vs Whitewater in Final 3/2
UW-Whitewater	22-3, 22-3	WIAC	WON vs La Crosse i76-73; at Stevens Point in Final 3/2
St. Thomas	21-4, 21-4	MIAC	WON vs Bethel 74-59; vs St. Olaf in Final 3/2
St. Olaf	20-5, 20-5	MIAC	WON vs Gustavus Adolphus 66-53; vs St. Thomas in Final 3/2
Whitworth	20-5, 20-5	NWC	WON vs Lewis and Clark 87-62; vs Puget Sound in Final 3/1
Dubuque	18-4, 21-4	IIAC	LOST vs Luther 87-83 in semifinal
C-M-S	17-3, 19-5	SCIAC	LOST vs Cal Lutheran 54-53 in semifinal
Pomona-Pitzer	18-5, 18-7	SCIAC	LOST vs Chapman 69-54 in semifinal
Augsburg	18-7, 18-7	MIAC	LOST vs Bethel 70-67 in quarterfinal

[Greek Tragedy]

Looks like CMS and Pomona Pitzer both lost.

[Greek Tragedy]

Pool C?

Richard Stockton/William Paterson loser
Brockport State/Plattsburgh State loser
Geneseo State
DePauw
Wooster/Wittenberg loser
Wesley
Stevenson/Alvernia loser
Illinois Wesleyan/Wheaton loser
Augustana
Amherst or Williams (both in semis)
Two of Babson, WPI and Springfield (all in semis)
Randolph-Macon
Emory
Whitewater/Stevens Point loser
St. Thomas/St. Olaf loser

-------

Rutgers-Newark
Mt. St. Mary (N.Y)
NYU
Carthage

[Titan Q]

My updated take on Pool C as of Saturday morning...

* The data I'm using is from this week's regional rankings, games through Sun 2/23.
* This list accounts for the 64 current regionally ranked teams

Presumed Pool A/B Teams
--Would be competitive in Pool C selection process:
1. Amherst (NESCAC) - .917/.583/8-0   Northeast #1
2. UW-Stevens Point (WIAC) - .960/.581/5-1    West #1
3. Washington U.# (UAA) - .917/.595/6-2   Midwest #1
4. Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW) - .880/.556/6-2   Midwest #2
5. Wooster (NCAC) - .913/.534/5-1   Great Lakes #1
6. Brockport State (SUNYAC) - .875/.543/3-2   East #1
7. SUNY-Purchase (SKY) - .920/.508/4-1   Atlantic #1
8. Cabrini (CSAC) - .958/.504/2-0   Mid-Atlantic #1
9. Scranton (Land) - .880/.544/2-1   Mid-Atlantic #2
10. St. Thomas (MIAC) - .840/.527/4-2   West #3
11. Richard Stockton (NJAC) - .840/.528/3-2   Atlantic #2
12. Eastern Connecticut (LEC) - .800/.542/3-3   Northeast #4
13. Stevenson (MACC) - .720/.521/5-3   Mid-Atlantic #5
14. Hope (MIAA) - .783/.546/2-4   Great Lakes #2 
15. Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC) - .750/.545/3-2   South #3
16. WPI (NEWMAC) - .880/.516/3-1  Northeast #5
17. Centre** (SAA) - .850/.507/2-1   South #5
18. St. Norbert (MWC) - .955/.509/0-1   Midwest #5

--Most likely would not be competitive in Pool C selection process:
19. Trinity-Tx (SCAC) - .640/.546/3-3   South #8
20. Dickinson (CC) - .800/.525/2-1   Mid-Atlantic #4
21. Albertus Magnus (GNAC) - .958/.475/1-0   Northeast #8
22. Texas-Dallas (ASC) - .880/.493/1-1   South #4
23. Whitworth (NWC) - .800/.524/0-3  West #5
24. Nichols - .800/.518/0-2   Northeast #9
25. Rose-Hulman (HCAC) - .800/.514/0-1   Midwest #7
26. Hobart - .760/.512/0-1  East #4


Pool C candidates
1. UW-Whitewater (WIAC) - .880/.565/4-1   West #2
2. Williams (NESCAC) - .875/.551/4-2   Northeast #2
3. Babson (NEWMAC) - .800/.564/3-4   Northeast #3
4. Randolph-Macon* (ODAC) - .800/.560/3-3   South #1
5. Wesley* (CAC) - .909/.522/3-0   Mid-Atlantic #3
6. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) - .840/.534/3-3   East #2
7. Wheaton (CCIW) - .680/.595/5-5   Midwest #3
8. Augustana* (CCIW) - .760/.553/4-3   Midwest #4
9. Geneseo State* (SUNYAC) - .792/.544/2-3   East #3
10. Emory# (UAA) - .708/.603/2-4  South #2
11. Messiah* (MACC) - .792/.527/3-4   Mid-Atlantic #6
12. William Paterson (NJAC) - .800/.512/2-2   Atlantic #4
13. Rutgers-Newark* (NJAC) - .731/.525/3-2   Atlantic #5
14. Carthage* (CCIW) - .652/.593/4-6   Midwest #6
15. Birmingham-Southern** (SAA) - .640/.557/6-3   South #6
16. Alvernia (MACC) - .720/.541/4-4   Mid-Atlantic #7
17. DePauw* (NCAC) - .708/.539/4-4   Great Lakes #5
18. Ohio Wesleyan* (NCAC) - .760/.529/2-3   Great Lakes #7
19. St. Olaf (MIAC) - .800/.539/1-5   West #4
20. Chicago (UAA) - .609/.579/3-6   Midwest #8
--------------------
21. Springfield (NEWMAC) - .750/.556/1-4   Northeast #6
22. Mount Union* (OAC) - .880/.511/2-1   Great Lakes #4
23. Bowdoin* (NESCAC) - .792/.530/1-3   Northeast #7
24. Bethany* (PrAC) - .833/.505/1-0   Great Lakes #3
25. Staten Island* (CUNYAC) - .923/.477/0-0   Atlantic #3
26. Rhode Island (LEC) - .680/.550/0-3   Northeast #10
27. Wittenberg (NCAC) - .760/.512/2-3   Great Lakes #6
28. Middlebury (NESCAC) - .667/.557/2-4   Northeast #11
29. Guilford* (ODAC) - .680/.536/1-5   South #7
30. Mary Washington (CAC) - .783/.531/1-2   Mid-Atlantic #8
31. St. Mary's* (CAC) - .682/.560/1-5   Mid-Atlantic #9
32. Augsburg* (MIAC) - .720/.516/1-4   West #926.
33. Dubuque* (IIAC) - .818/.513/1-0   West #6
34. NYU (UAA)# - .667/.554/0-5   East #6
35. Skidmore* (LL) - .640/.529/2-4   East #6
36. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps* (SCIAC) - .850/.493/1-1  West #7
37. Pomona-Pitzer* (SCIAC) .783/.508/1-0   West #8
38. Mount St. Mary (Sky) - .800/.484/0-4   Atlantic #6


* Teams that have lost in their conference tournament (officially Pool C candidates)

# UAA teams - Wash U is locked in as the Pool A, Emory and NYU are Pool C candidates

** Pool B

[Titan Q]

A lot on the line on the south side of Chicago today (Wash U @ Chicago, 3:00pm Central).  The Maroons have a chance to make a case for a Pool C bid at the very end of the bubble, and Wash U hopes to stay ahead of IWU in the Midwest.

[KnightSlappy]

15. Marietta (OAC) - .750/.535/0-4   Great Lakes #6
20. St. Olaf (MIAC) - .800/.539/1-5   West #4

These two have to be flipped, right? What's the reasoning behind Marietta getting above St Olaf (worse WP, SOS, vRRO)?