Pool C

[Titan Q]

15. Marietta (OAC) - .750/.535/0-4   Great Lakes #6
20. St. Olaf (MIAC) - .800/.539/1-5   West #4

These two have to be flipped, right? What's the reasoning behind Marietta getting above St Olaf (worse WP, SOS, vRRO)?

Yes.

My problem is that I like Ohio Wesleyan's resume more than Marietta's...but Marietta is ranked higher in the Great Lakes.  So it kind of messed me up with Marietta.

Going to edit above.

[KnightSlappy]

15. Marietta (OAC) - .750/.535/0-4   Great Lakes #6
20. St. Olaf (MIAC) - .800/.539/1-5   West #4

These two have to be flipped, right? What's the reasoning behind Marietta getting above St Olaf (worse WP, SOS, vRRO)?

Yes.

My problem is that I like Ohio Wesleyan's resume more than Marietta's...but Marietta is ranked higher in the Great Lakes.  So it kind of messed me up with Marietta.

Going to edit above.

Marietta wasn't ranked in the last rankings. I think they're done.

[Titan Q]

15. Marietta (OAC) - .750/.535/0-4   Great Lakes #6
20. St. Olaf (MIAC) - .800/.539/1-5   West #4

These two have to be flipped, right? What's the reasoning behind Marietta getting above St Olaf (worse WP, SOS, vRRO)?

Yes.

My problem is that I like Ohio Wesleyan's resume more than Marietta's...but Marietta is ranked higher in the Great Lakes.  So it kind of messed me up with Marietta.

Going to edit above.

Marietta wasn't ranked in the last rankings. I think they're done.

Good catch. I knew I had one too many ranked teams listed...just couldn't find it.

Agree - Marietta is done.  I have removed them from my list (since not regionally ranked).

I made edits above.

[Titan Q]

Centre vs Birmingham-Southern is interesting.  I have B-S in as a Pool C...but I would not have Centre in if they were in the Pool C grouping.  (But Centre is ranked higher in the South.)

[sac]

17. DePauw* (NCAC) - .708/.539/4-4   Great Lakes #5
18. Ohio Wesleyan* (NCAC) - .760/.529/2-3   Great Lakes #7

I think we have to assume Wittenberg will finish ranked ahead of these two in the final Great Lakes poll based on this past weeks results even though the head-to-heads don't quite match-up.

[sac]

7. SUNY-Purchase (SKY) - .920/.508/4-1   Atlantic #1
8. Cabrini (CSAC) - .958/.504/2-0   Mid-Atlantic #1
9. Scranton (Land) - .880/.544/2-1   Mid-Atlantic #
12. Eastern Connecticut (LEC) - .800/.542/3-3   Northeast #4
13. Stevenson (MACC) - .720/.521/5-3   Mid-Atlantic #5
14. Hope (MIAA) - .783/.546/2-4   Great Lakes #2
15. Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC) - .750/.545/3-2   South #3
16. WPI (NEWMAC) - .880/.516/3-1  Northeast #5
18. St. Norbert (MWC) - .955/.509/0-1   Midwest #5

Using Q's list, it seems like these are the bubble bursting teams.  Losses here potentially take up a Pool C spot that otherwise would not go to another conference rival.

[mailsy]

Cabrini won last night and are in. So someone's pool C chances are still alive. 

[Greek Tragedy]

18. St. Norbert (MWC) - .955/.509/0-1   Midwest #5

Using Q's list, it seems like these are the bubble bursting teams.  Losses here potentially take up a Pool C spot that otherwise would not go to another conference rival.

It might be at the expense of St. Norbert, but a little part of me would like to see Grinnell in the NCAAs. I think the Green Knights are too good and disciplined to lose at home to Grinnell.

[bopol]

Thoughts on TitanQ's Pool C's.  Open to his and everyone's thoughts.

* You really think Staten Island is on the outside looking in with that record.  I know they have nothing else going for them, but they are 25-3. 

* I agree with you on principle on Bowdoin, but do they get any sort of bonus point from the NESCAC effect (being a good team from a great conference)?  I think the Tufts and Trinity losses are too much to overcome for serious consideration.

* Not feeling it for Rutgers-Newark.  8 losses and a 2-3 RRO record (Stevens dropped out).  Solid team, but more at the end of the bubble.

* I'm not sure what to think of the order of Alvernia and Messiah.  Messiah has 6 losses, a 2-4 RRO record and lost 2 of 3 vs. Alvernia (who would end with 8 losses if they lost today, a 3-5 RRO record).  I'm not sure Messiah doesn't get passed and then they both end up at the end of the bubble.  I'm leaning towards your thinking (Messiah then Alvernia).

* You've already pointed out Chicago/Wash U, but I'll mention Springfield/Babson, because Springfield has a fair amount going for them except the RRO record (1-4).  A win today could propel them into the Pool C discussions.

* Birmingham-Southern is only 4-3 against RRO, as Oglethorpe dropped out.  Does that change your view at all?  I'm gagging a bit on the 9 losses.  Similarly for Carthage, but they have wins against IWU and Wash U, which makes it go down a little easier.

* I'm really having trouble with the Great Lakes/NCAC.  First, how far do Bethany and Mount Union fall?  I don't think either has a good enough resume to get in on their own merits, so they might block an NCAC.  Mount Union has no RRO wins and Bethany beat only Mount Union among the regional ranked.  So, assuming they do get out of the NCAC clubs way, what order do those end up in?  Assuming Witt loses today...

Wittenburg 21-7 (2-0 vs. OWU, 1-2 vs. DePauw 3-6 vs. RRO)
DePauw 19-8 (2-1 vs. Witt, 1-1 vs. OWU, 4-5 vs. RRO including win vs. Wooster)
OWU 20-7 (1-1 vs. DePauw, 0-2 vs. Witt, 2-5 vs. RRO including win vs. Wooster)

I've got to say, I see it as Wittenburg/DePauw/OWU in that order.

With that in mind, here are my last 7 picks as of now:
* Messiah - 13
* Wittenburg -14
* Carthage -15
* DePauw - 16
* Alvernia - 17
* OWU - 18
* Rutgers - Newark -19

Really close are Springfield and St. Olaf.  I really could go either way on the last two picks and the two I left out.

Teams I have in that you don't: Staten Island and Wittenburg
Teams I don't have in that you do: St. Olaf and Birmingham-Southern

[wooscotsfan]

I realize that the Pool C methodology is a blend of several factors but I wonder if the NCAA committee has difficulty selecting a team that has a much lower win % even if their SOS would suggest that the team is deserving of a bid?

In checking last year's Pool C bids, I didn't find any Pool C teams that had a winning percentage below .700  (please correct me if I am mistaken)

Current Pool C candidates with Win % below .700:

Wheaton (CCIW) - .680/.595/5-5   Midwest #3
Rhode Island (LEC) - .680/.550/0-3   Northeast #10
Guilford (ODAC) - .680/.536/1-5   South #7
Middlebury (NESCAC) - .667/.557/2-4   Northeast #11
Carthage (CCIW) - .652/.593/4-6   Midwest #6
Birmingham-Southern (SAA) - .640/.557/6-3   South #6
Chicago (UAA) - .609/.579/3-6   Midwest #8

Of this list above, I would certainly agree that Wheaton is deserving with their high SOS and 5 RRO wins if they don't win the CCIW bid.  For the rest of the teams on this list, it may be a real stretch to get a Pool C bid given their lower win percentages. 

[bopol]

I realize that the Pool C methodology is a blend of several factors but I wonder if the NCAA committee has difficulty selecting a team that has a much lower win % even if their SOS would suggest that the team is deserving of a bid?

In checking last year's Pool C bids, I didn't find any Pool C teams that had a winning percentage below .700  (please correct me if I am mistaken)

Current Pool C candidates with Win % below .700:

Wheaton (CCIW) - .680/.595/5-5   Midwest #3
Rhode Island (LEC) - .680/.550/0-3   Northeast #10
Guilford (ODAC) - .680/.536/1-5   South #7
Middlebury (NESCAC) - .667/.557/2-4   Northeast #11
Carthage (CCIW) - .652/.593/4-6   Midwest #6
Birmingham-Southern (SAA) - .640/.557/6-3   South #6
Chicago (UAA) - .609/.579/3-6   Midwest #8

Of this list above, I would certainly agree that Wheaton is deserving with their high SOS and 5 RRO wins if they don't win the CCIW bid.  For the rest of the teams on this list, it may be a real stretch to get a Pool C bid given their lower win percentages.

Last year, yes, but this is a different beast this year.  The teams getting left on the table don't have big wins at all; often times have way too many losses or a poor SOS. 

Of course, this can change with a bunch of upsets today and tomorrow.

[sac]

the 70% rule has changed the landscape for the better I think, consequently more wins/losses are being counted that wouldn't have in years past.

But most importantly more cross regional match-ups among the top programs.  There was no incentive for Wheaton/Wooster, Hope/Illinois Wesleyan etc etc to play in past seasons.  Those games wouldn't show up in the regional record/SOS calculations in the past.

Just using Hope as an example using this years schedule

With 70% rule:  19-5  SOS of .546
Without 70% rule:   18-2  SOS significantly less

I'm sure its the same for a number of other programs out there.

[Greek Tragedy]

Far from an expert, I see Alvernia ahead of Messiah. They have a better H2H record and more RRO.

I also see Wittenberg, DePauw and Ohio Wesleyan in that order.

Carthage has great numbers but I can't get past the fact they are only 15-9.

[Titan Q]

I've done some more tweaking - I moved Alvernia and Carthage up, put Wittenberg in, and slid Birmingham-Southern down a bit.


* The data I'm using is from this week's regional rankings, games through Sun 2/23.
* This list accounts for the 64 current regionally ranked teams

Presumed Pool A/B Teams
--Would be competitive in Pool C selection process:
1. Amherst (NESCAC) - .917/.583/8-0   Northeast #1
2. UW-Stevens Point (WIAC) - .960/.581/5-1    West #1
3. Washington U.# (UAA) - .917/.595/6-2   Midwest #1  ---Clinched Pool A---
4. Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW) - .880/.556/6-2   Midwest #2
5. Wooster (NCAC) - .913/.534/5-1   Great Lakes #1
6. Brockport State (SUNYAC) - .875/.543/3-2   East #1
7. SUNY-Purchase (SKY) - .920/.508/4-1   Atlantic #1
8. Cabrini (CSAC) - .958/.504/2-0   Mid-Atlantic #1  ---Clinched Pool A---
9. Scranton (Land) - .880/.544/2-1   Mid-Atlantic #2  ---Clinched Pool A---
10. St. Thomas (MIAC) - .840/.527/4-2   West #3
11. Richard Stockton (NJAC) - .840/.528/3-2   Atlantic #2
12. Eastern Connecticut (LEC) - .800/.542/3-3   Northeast #4
13. Stevenson (MACC) - .720/.521/5-3   Mid-Atlantic #5
14. Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC) - .750/.545/3-2   South #3
15. Centre** (SAA) - .850/.507/2-1   South #5
16. St. Norbert (MWC) - .955/.509/0-1   Midwest #5

--Most likely would not be competitive in Pool C selection process:
17. Trinity-Tx (SCAC) - .640/.546/3-3   South #8
18. Dickinson (CC) - .800/.525/2-1   Mid-Atlantic #4
19. Albertus Magnus (GNAC) - .958/.475/1-0   Northeast #8
20. Texas-Dallas (ASC) - .880/.493/1-1   South #4
21. Whitworth (NWC) - .800/.524/0-3  West #5
22. Nichols - .800/.518/0-2   Northeast #9
23. Rose-Hulman (HCAC) - .800/.514/0-1   Midwest #7
24. Hobart - .760/.512/0-1  East #4


Pool C candidates
1. UW-Whitewater (WIAC) - .880/.565/4-1   West #2
2. Williams (NESCAC) - .875/.551/4-2   Northeast #2
3. Babson (NEWMAC) - .800/.564/3-4   Northeast #3
4. Randolph-Macon* (ODAC) - .800/.560/3-3   South #1
5. Wesley* (CAC) - .909/.522/3-0   Mid-Atlantic #3
6. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) - .840/.534/3-3   East #2
7. Wheaton (CCIW) - .680/.595/5-5   Midwest #3
8. Augustana* (CCIW) - .760/.553/4-3   Midwest #4
9. Geneseo State* (SUNYAC) - .792/.544/2-3   East #3
10. Emory# (UAA) - .708/.603/2-4  South #2
11. Alvernia (MACC) - .720/.541/4-4   Mid-Atlantic #7
12. Messiah* (MACC) - .792/.527/3-4   Mid-Atlantic #6
13. WPI (NEWMAC) - .880/.516/3-1  Northeast #5
14. Hope (MIAA) - .783/.546/2-4   Great Lakes #2 
15. Carthage* (CCIW) - .652/.593/4-6   Midwest #6
16. William Paterson (NJAC) - .800/.512/2-2   Atlantic #4
17. Rutgers-Newark* (NJAC) - .731/.525/3-2   Atlantic #5
18. Wittenberg (NCAC) - .760/.512/2-3   Great Lakes #6
19. DePauw* (NCAC) - .708/.539/4-4   Great Lakes #5
20. St. Olaf (MIAC) - .800/.539/1-5   West #4
--------------------
21. Birmingham-Southern** (SAA) - .640/.557/6-3   South #6
22. Chicago (UAA) - .609/.579/3-6   Midwest #8
23. Ohio Wesleyan* (NCAC) - .760/.529/2-3   Great Lakes #7
24. Springfield (NEWMAC) - .750/.556/1-4   Northeast #6
25. Mount Union* (OAC) - .880/.511/2-1   Great Lakes #4
26. Bowdoin* (NESCAC) - .792/.530/1-3   Northeast #7
27. Bethany* (PrAC) - .833/.505/1-0   Great Lakes #3
28. Staten Island* (CUNYAC) - .923/.477/0-0   Atlantic #3
29. Rhode Island (LEC) - .680/.550/0-3   Northeast #10
30. Middlebury (NESCAC) - .667/.557/2-4   Northeast #11
31. Guilford* (ODAC) - .680/.536/1-5   South #7
32. Mary Washington (CAC) - .783/.531/1-2   Mid-Atlantic #8
33. St. Mary's* (CAC) - .682/.560/1-5   Mid-Atlantic #9
34. Augsburg* (MIAC) - .720/.516/1-4   West #926.
35. Dubuque* (IIAC) - .818/.513/1-0   West #6
36. NYU (UAA)# - .667/.554/0-5   East #6
37. Skidmore* (LL) - .640/.529/2-4   East #6
38. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps* (SCIAC) - .850/.493/1-1  West #7
39. Pomona-Pitzer* (SCIAC) .783/.508/1-0   West #8
40. Mount St. Mary (Sky) - .800/.484/0-4   Atlantic #6


* Teams that have lost in their conference tournament (officially Pool C candidates)

# UAA teams - Wash U is locked in as the Pool A, Emory and NYU are Pool C candidates

** Pool B

[Titan Q]

Far from an expert, I see Alvernia ahead of Messiah. They have a better H2H record and more RRO.

I also see Wittenberg, DePauw and Ohio Wesleyan in that order.

Carthage has great numbers but I can't get past the fact they are only 15-9.

Agree on Alvernia/Messiah.

Agree on Witt, DePauw, and OWU.

I think Carthage is in.  They will hit the board fairly early - after Augie gets in - and will get in with that tremendous SOS and (now) 11 games played vs RRO and 4 wins.  If the committee places strong emphasis on SOS and RRO, then Carthage is in.