Pool C

sac · February 22, 2015, 06:45:38 PM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 22, 2015, 11:44:39 AM
Bates' SOS is .619 and 4-4 vRRO. WPI's is .523 and 3-2. That's a pretty big gap in SOS.

In the last rankings WPI looked out of position to me ahead of Springfield and Bowdoin (both have much stronger SOS numbers). If they did that again and placed Bates behind WPI it would be trouble for Bates. WPI isn't a slam dunk to get a C.

I agree, they shouldn't be behind WPI but the Northeast put Springfield and Bowdoin behind WPI already.

warriorcat · February 22, 2015, 08:17:52 PM

In the Bates vs WPI Pool C discussion, remember that Bates is done playing and to be a Pool C candidate WPI would have taken a loss in its conference tournament. Outside of losing to Babson in the final, that loss could push them down even further in the region.

Greek Tragedy · February 22, 2015, 09:30:18 PM

When discussing Pool C consideration, it's assumed everyone takes one more loss.

Greek Tragedy · February 22, 2015, 09:39:20 PM

Knight,

You really think Albertus Magnus has a Pool C shot? They are pretty far down the pecking order in that region and their potential loss won't be against a regional ranked opponent and won't help their SOS, unlike someone like Amherst, WPI or Springfield.

Sac,

Bates only has one more loss than WPI. Springfield has THREE more losses and Bowdoin has TWO more (now 3 after losing this week). SOS can only go so far when those losses pile up compared to other teams (with three less losses), IMO.

sac · February 22, 2015, 09:56:52 PM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 22, 2015, 09:39:20 PM
Knight,

You really think Albertus Magnus has a Pool C shot? They are pretty far down the pecking order in that region and their potential loss won't be against a regional ranked opponent and won't help their SOS, unlike someone like Amherst, WPI or Springfield.

Sac,

Bates only has one more loss than WPI. Springfield has THREE more losses and Bowdoin has TWO more (now 3 after losing this week). SOS can only go so far when those losses pile up compared to other teams (with three less losses), IMO.

Oh I understand, but when it comes to national selection Springfield and Bowdoin would be chosen quicker than WPI in my estimation. Strong SOS numbers really stand out when you compare them across 8 different regions. WPI will be going up against teams with similar records and a lot better SOS numbers for several rounds at the table.

This was the mock selection I did a couple days ago, because of where WPI is ranked in the Northeast they hit the table before Springfield and Bowdoin. That's the danger for Bates now, getting caught behind WPI(which we both agree they shouldn't)......

QuoteSelected in order, number is KS's Pool C Ranking
1. Bates
2. Whitewater
3. Emory
4. Washington
5. William Patterson
6. Amherst
10. Dickenson
11. Wooster
12. Elmhurst**
8. Illinois Wesleyan**
----------------------------------------bubble
13. North Central**
14. Va. Wesleyan
16. WPI
9. Bowdoin
7. Springfield

One of the CCIW's won't be in there, but with enough upsets I think the teams behind WPI aren't a cinch to get selected. Bowdoin and Springfiled would get picked faster if they ranked ahead of WPI.

It would be even more severe this week as WPI is now #20 of KS's list.

If I've learned anything through this process its that teams that lose in the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments are usually not given many breaks when it comes to the final regional rankings. It would be harsh if Bates didn't make it. I think its been awhile since such a highly seeded team from one of the big 5 conferences lost in the quarterfinals. I'm not sure the RAC's have ever had to deal with that actually.

Wed's ranking will be interesting since it will include Bates' loss.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 22, 2015, 10:14:12 PM

Remember... Bowdoin lost in the quarterfinals last year and made the NCAA tournament. Their SOS was not nearly as good as Bates this year and many thought they would be out.

KnightSlappy · February 22, 2015, 10:20:05 PM

I don't think Albertus Magnus has a great chance, but they do have some chance. Pool C teams would just rather they win.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 22, 2015, 10:22:20 PM

Something to keep in mind that I have heard a lot in the last few weeks... teams who have below .500 SOS and below .667 WP% are most likely not going to make the tournament.

As I said on Hoopsville on Thursday... let's start there as the benchmark. If at-large teams make the tournament with SOS and WP% below those numbers, fine. However, if we keep those benchmarks in mind, it will probably help us understand who is in and who is out of the tournament to start.

Greek Tragedy · February 23, 2015, 12:16:46 AM

Results are final for the week. I added SOS to help us out.

Green is Conference Leader/Pool A

Red is Pool C Candidate/regular season complete (lost in conference tourney)

WK2	TEAM	Regional/Overall	Week	SOS	SCHEDULE
Atl#1	Rich. Stock. (NJAC)	19-5, 19-5	1-0	0.579	WON vs Montclair State 77-56; 1st round bye in tourney
Atl#2	Will. Pat. (NJAC)	19-5, 19-5	0-1	0.555	LOST vs Rowan 62-60; 1st round bye in tourney
Atl#3	Baruch (CUNYAC)	18-5, 18-5	1-1	0.492	LOST at Brooklyn 75-68; WON vs CCNY in quarterfinals 72-55
Atl#4	Brooklyn (CUNYAC)	19-5, 19-5	2-0	0.490	WON vs Baruch 75-68; WON vs John Jay in quaterfinals 83-68
Atl#5	Rutgers-New. (NJAC)	16-8, 16-8	2-0	0.559	WON vs Ramapo 84-68; WON vs Rowan in quarterfinals 83-58
Atl#6	Sage College (SKY)	18-4, 19-4	2-0	0.472	WON at Mount St. Mary 93-91; WON at Sarah Lawrence 72-35
Atl#7	Staten Island (CUNYAC)	17-7, 17-7	0-2	0.491	LOST to Lehman College 81-64; LOST vs York College in quarterfinals 70-67

Don't have to worry about Staten Island. Brooklyn should jump Baruch and William Paterson should be safe for now.

WK2	TEAM	Regional/Overall	Week	SOS	SCHEDULE
C#1	Augustana (CCIW)	20-4, 20-4	1-0	0.584	WON at Wheaton 89-55
C#2	Whitewater (WIAC)	19-2, 20-3	2-0	0.561	WON vs Oshkosh 69-47; WON at Stout 86-77
C#3	Stevens Point (WIAC)	20-4, 20-4	1-0	0.582	WON at Superior 70-60
C#4	Washington U. (UAA)	17-5, 17-5	2-0	0.562	WON vs NYU 97-75; WON vs Brandeis 72-44
C#5	Elmhurst (CCIW)	19-5, 19-5	0-1	0.541	LOST at Illinois Wesleyan 96-66
C#6	St. Norbert (MWC)	21-1, 21-1	1-0	0.498	WON vs Cornell 58-48
C#7	IWU (CCIW)	17-7, 17-7	1-0	0.576	WON vs Elmhurst 96-66
C#8	North Central (CCIW)	15-7, 17-7	1-0	0.577	WON vs North Park 82-72

Stevens Point and Washington are safe. Elmhurst may stay above St. Norb's and probably won't jump the Green Knights yet. The question will be if Elmhurst loses in the semis to IWU, will they be safe? NCC probably has to make the Finals of the CCIW tourney.

WK2	TEAM	Regional/Overall	Week	SOS	SCHEDULE
E#1	St. John Fisher (E8)	20-2, 20-2	1-2	0.493	LOST at Alfred 60-59; WON at Hartwick 69-68; LOST at Stevens 60-54
E#2	Platts. St. (SUNYAC)	16-6, 16-6	2-1	0.542	WON at Potsdam St. 71-67; WON vs Brockport St. 60-45; LOST vs Geneseo St. 80-73
E#3	NYU (UAA)	16-6, 16-6	0-2	0.532	LOST at Washington U. 97-75; LOST at Chicago 77-60
E#4	Hobart (LL)	16-6, 16-7	2-0	0.507	WON vs Rochester Tech 53-51; WON at Union 85-57
E#5	Skidmore (LL)	16-7, 16-7	2-0	0.542	WON at St. Lawrence 72-67 OT; WON vs Clarkson 69-53
E#6	Clarkson (LL)	17-5, 18-5	1-1	0.486	WON vs St. Lawrence 68-62; LOST at Skidmore 69-53

Plattsburgh State may not have enough to jump St. John Fisher yet. Could NYU drop like a rock to 5th?

WK2	TEAM	Regional/Overall	Week	SOS	SCHEDULE
GL#1	Marietta (OAC)	21-2, 21-2	2-0	0.512	WON vs Otterbein 95-69; WON vs Ohio Northern 74-65
GL#2	Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC)	19-4, 19-4	2-0	0.528	WON vs Oberlin 106-76; WON at DePauw 86-77
GL#3	Wooster (NCAC)	18-5, 18-5	2-0	0.546	WON vs Allegheny 80-63; WON at Oberlin 58-45
GL#4	Mount Union (OAC)	18-5, 18-5	1-1	0.523	LOST at John Carroll 88-81; WONat Wilmington 74-71
GL#5	John Carroll (OAC)	17-5, 17-5	2-0	0.520	WON vs Mount Union 88-81, WON at Muskingum 101-79
GL#6	CWR (UAA)	12-6, 14-7	1-2	0.574	WON at Brandeis 71-55; LOST vs Emory 71-65; LOST vs Rochester 82-78 OT
GL#7	Calvin (MIAA)	16-5, 17-6	2-0	0.512	WON at Olivet 87-74; WON at Albion 71-54
GL#8	PS-Behrend (AMCC)	21-2, 21-2	2-0	0.446	WON vs Hilbert 64-62; WON vs Pitt-Greensburg 91-64
GL#9	Hope (MIAA)	14-7, 15-8	2-0	0.552	WON vs Kalamazoo 67-55; WON vs Adrian 56-41

John Carroll and Mount Union will probably swap and, amazingly, I wouldn't be surprised if CWR stays ahead of Calvin.

WK2	TEAM	Regional/Overall	Week	SOS	SCHEDULE
MA#1	Johns Hopkins (CC)	20-3, 20-3	2-0	0.530	WON at McDaniel 70-56; WON vs Washington College87-58
MA#2	Dickinson (CC)	19-4, 19-4	1-1	0.528	WON vs Muhlenberg 53-43; LOST at Franklin and Marshall 69-53
MA#3	Catholic (LAND)	20-2, 20-3	1-1	0.485	WON at Juniata 75-60; LOST at Scranton 83-71
MA#4	Frank. & Marsh. (CC)	19-4, 19-4	1-1	0.497	LOST at Gettysburg 76-62; WON vs Dickinson 69-53
MA#5	Scranton (LAND)	18-5, 18-5	2-0	0.507	WON at Merchant Marine 66-60; WON vs Catholic 83-71
MA#6	St. Mary's (Md.) (CAC)	16-4, 18-4	2-0	0.479	WON vs Christopher Newport 88-78; WON at Southern Virginia 83-61

I could see Scranton jumping Franklin and Marshall and that's about it.

WK2	TEAM	Regional/Overall	Week	SOS	SCHEDULE
NE#1	Babson (NEWMAC)	21-2, 21-2	2-0	0.561	WON vs Coast Guard 66-51; WON vs MIT 62-51
NE#2	Bates (NESCAC)	18-5, 18-5	1-1	0.619	WON at St. Joseph's (Maine) 62-57; LOST vs Wesleyan in quarterfinals 66-59
NE#3	Trinity (Ct.) (NESCAC)	18-4, 19-5	1-0	0.534	WON vs Colby in quarterfinals 66-63
NE#4	Amherst (NESCAC)	18-6, 18-6	1-0	0.567	WON at Tufts in quarterfinals 92-66
NE#5	E. Connecticut (LEC)	19-4, 19-4	2-0	0.562	WON at Western Connecticut 70-60; WON vs Southern Maine 67-53
NE#6	WPI (NEWMAC)	19-4, 19-4	2-0	0.523	WON at Wheaton (Mass.) 89-43; WON vs Clark 61-56
NE#7	Bowdoin (NESCAC)	17-6, 17-6	1-1	0.563	LOST vs Husson 72-61; WON vs Williams in quarterfinals 87-74
NE#8	Springfield (NEWMAC)	16-7, 16-7	2-0	0.581	WON vs Clark 65-57; WON at Coast Guard 73-51
NE#9	Albertus Magnus (GNAC)	21-1, 21-1	3-0	0.475	WON vs Emmanuel 99-89; WON vs Mount Ida 97-68; WON vs Anna Maria 75-68
NE#10	RIC (LEC)	16-7, 16-7	2-0	0.555	WON vs Mass-Dartmouth 75-64; WON at Plymouth St. 69-41
NE#11	S. Vermont (NECC)	19-2, 20-3	2-0	0.479	WON at Elms 79-75; WON at Daniel Webster 91-78

I could actually see Bates staying at #2. Bowdoin will probably drop behind Springfield.

WK2	TEAM	Regional/Overall	Week	SOS	SCHEDULE
So#1	RMC (ODAC)	21-2, 21-2	2-0	0.556	WON vs Shenandoah 103-72; WON at Emory and Henry 82-63
So#2	Emory (UAA)	17-5, 17-5	2-0	0.564	WON at CWR 71-65; WON at Carnegie Mellon 75-63
So#3	ETBU (ASC)	19-4, 19-4	1-1	0.520	LOST at Howard Payne 81-77 WON at Sul Ross State 77-70
So#4	VWU (ODAC)	18-4, 19-4	2-0	0.531	WON vs Hampden-Sydney 68-58; WON vs Guildford 85-64
So#5	Centre (SAA)	17-4, 18-4	2-0	0.523	WON at Berry 71-61; WON at Oglethorpe 63-61
So#6	Hardin-Simmons (ASC)	17-6, 17-6	2-0	0.513	WON vs Concordia (TX) 102-98; WON vs Mary Hardin-Baylor 84-79
So#7	Louisiana Coll. (ASC)	13-5, 13-9	1-1	0.557	WON at Univ. of the Ozarks 91-68; LOST at Texas-Tyler 77-76
So#8	MHB (ASC)	16-7, 16-7	1-1	0.517	WON at Texas-Dallas 76-75; LOST at Hardin-Simmons 84-79

I don't see Louisiana College or MHB getting Pool C bids.

WK2	TEAM	Regional/Overall	Week	SOS	SCHEDULE
W#1	St. Thomas (MIAC)	20-2, 20-2	2-1	0.566	WON vs St. Olaf 66-49; LOST vs Bethel 71-65; WON vs Hamline 89-62
W#2	St. Olaf (MIAC)	20-3, 20-3	1-1	0.506	LOST at St. Thomas 66-49; WON vs Concordia-Moorhead 65-60
W#3	Buena Vista (IIAC)	17-5, 17-6	1-1	0.509	WON at Dubuque 94-80; LOST at Coe 69-67
W#4	Dubuque (IIAC)	18-4, 19-4	1-1	0.521	LOST vs Buena Vista 94-80; WON vs Luther 77-63
W#5	Whitman (NWC)	17-4, 18-5	2-0	0.519	WON at Puget Sound 85-73; WON at Pacific Lutheran 88-80 OT
W#6	Whitworth (NWC)	20-3, 20-3	2-0	0.473	WON at Pacific Lutheran 68-39; WON at Puget Sound 66-63
W#7	Chapman (SCIAC)	13-3, 18-3	2-1	0.512	LOST at Redlands 62-59; WON vs Cal. Lutheran 86-70; WON vs La Verne 81-40

Lots of losses, but might actually stay status quo.

sac · February 23, 2015, 07:09:31 AM

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 22, 2015, 10:14:12 PM
Remember... Bowdoin lost in the quarterfinals last year and made the NCAA tournament. Their SOS was not nearly as good as Bates this year and many thought they would be out.

If I recall correctly we all thought Bowdoin was one of the last teams in, in a year with very few Pool A upsets that affected Pool C.

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 22, 2015, 10:22:20 PM
Something to keep in mind that I have heard a lot in the last few weeks... teams who have below .500 SOS and below .667 WP% are most likely not going to make the tournament.

As I said on Hoopsville on Thursday... let's start there as the benchmark. If at-large teams make the tournament with SOS and WP% below those numbers, fine. However, if we keep those benchmarks in mind, it will probably help us understand who is in and who is out of the tournament to start.

The only ranked teams at .667 or lower were Hope, who is now 16-7 and can only finish at .667 or better, and Case Western who is now 13-8 and can't finish above .667 and likely won't be ranked this week.

On the SOS side, the only teams ranked with below .500 SOS are mostly current Pool A teams
Baruch .492
Sage .472
St. Norbert .498
St. John Fisher .493
PSU-Behrend .446
Catholic .485
St. Mary's .479
Albertus Magnus .475
So. Vermont .479
Whitworth .473

St. John Fisher and St. Norbert are the only two currently blocking better C candidates that will likely make the final board. Both are probably pretty good C candidates and may even get their SOS above .500 after conference tournaments. The rest look pretty sketchy as C candidates to me.

Brooklyn .490
Clarkson .486
Frank & Marsh .497

These 3 are all Pool C candidates and at last ranking were not blocking anyone who would make Pool C. F&M can get its SOS above .500 through their conference tournament.

Greek Tragedy · February 23, 2015, 08:05:05 AM

Good work, Sac.

I also think Scranton will jump F&M this week. Maybe I will put winning % in instead of record this week.

sac · February 23, 2015, 08:09:38 AM

KS's RPI Index updated through Sunday's games:
http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

Current Pool C - (an approximation, not gospel)
1. Bates 19-6 .760/.613/3-4
2. Whitewater 21-2 .840/.574/2-4
3. Washington 19-5 .792/.562/4-3
4. Amherst 19-6 .760/.570/4-2
5. Illinois Wesleyan 18-7 .720/.577/4-4*
6. Va. Wesleyan 20-4 .833/.537/0-3
7. William Patterson 19-6 .760/.557/5-2
-----------------------------------------------------------bubble
8. Wooster 20-5 .800/.543/2-2
9. North Central 16-7 .696/.577/3-5*
10. Dickinson 20-5 .800/.541/3-2
11. Bowdoin 18-7 .720/566/1-4
12. Springfield 18-7 .720/.565/1-4
13. St. Olaf 21-4 .840/.522/1-2
14. Elmhurst 19-6 .760/.545/4-3*
16. Rutgers-Newark 18-8 .692/.566/1-5
17. Whitman 19-4 .826/.514/2-3
18. East Texas Baptist 19-5 .792/.524/4-2
19. Dubuque 19-5 .792/.524/0-3

20. WPI 21-4 .840/.508/2-2
21. Rhode Island Coll 18-7 .720/.546/0-3
22. Mt. Union 19-6 .760/.530/2-4
23. Scranton 20-5 .800/.516/1-1
24. John Carroll .792/.516/3-2
25. St. Johns 15-9 .625/.568/0-6
26. Wesleyan 17-8 .680/.549/3-4
27. Hope 16-7 .696/.543/2-5
29. Middlebury 16-6 .727/.532/3-3
31. Frank & Marsh 20-5 .800/.505/3-2

*--the 3 CCIW's, all probably have to win their CCIW semi-final game to continue being a strong C candidate. Even with a loss they all still have really solid criteria for selection though.

#15 is Williams, with 10 losses there's no way they get ranked

Current Pool A's that would get C's (number on left is KS' national rank)
1. Babson 23-2 .920/.560/6-2
3. St. Thomas 22-3 .880/.568/5-0
4. Augustana 21-4 .840/.579/5-2
5. Stevens Point 21-4 .840/.574/2-4
7. Randolph 23-2 .920/.537/4-0
8. Richard Stockton 20-5 .800/.574/5-1
9. E. Conn. 21-4 .840/.555/2-2
10. Emory 19-5 .792/.563/5-3
13. Johns Hopkins 22-3 .880/.529/3-2
16. Ohio Wesleyan 21-4 .840/.534/3-1
17. St. Norbert 22-1 .957/.495/0-1
18. Marietta 23-2 .920/.506/3-1

--I wouldn't feel comfortable calling OWU, St. Norbert or Marietta "locks" if they lost in their tournament QF's

Current Pool A's that aren't in top 19 of Pool C that could get a C bid (number on left is KS's national rank)
23. Trinity 19-4 .826/.531/4-0
30. Centre 19-4 .826/.518/0-1
31. Albertus Magnus 24-1 .960/.473/0-1

sac · February 23, 2015, 08:12:07 AM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 23, 2015, 08:05:05 AM
Good work, Sac.

I also think Scranton will jump F&M this week. Maybe I will put winning % in instead of record this week.

I don't know, I think F&M might still be ahead of them, their RvRRO's seem pretty large in this comparison. I'm also not sure if KS updated the RvRRO numbers for this past week so they might have changed.

23. Scranton 20-5 .800/.516/1-1
31. Frank & Marsh 20-5 .800/.505/3-2

sac · February 23, 2015, 08:31:16 AM

Question for Dave on your .667/under .500 comment

Could the committee really ignore a team like North Central, as the 8th ranked Central Region team (unlikely anyone not ranked gets ranked). If North Central loses to Augustana this week, this would be their criteria

North Central 16-8 .667/.596/3-6

The SOS is approximated where it should finish playing at Augustana this week. I think that would be hard to ignore along with their 9 RvRRO's in the final few rounds.

KnightSlappy · February 23, 2015, 09:16:16 AM

Quote from: sac on February 23, 2015, 08:31:16 AM
Question for Dave on your .667/under .500 comment

Could the committee really ignore a team like North Central, as the 8th ranked Central Region team (unlikely anyone not ranked gets ranked). If North Central loses to Augustana this week, this would be their criteria

North Central 16-8 .667/.596/3-6

The SOS is approximated where it should finish playing at Augustana this week. I think that would be hard to ignore along with their 9 RvRRO's in the final few rounds.

I mean, .667 isn't below .667.