Pool C

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Good work, Sac.

I also think Scranton will jump F&M this week. Maybe I will put winning % in instead of record this week.

I don't know, I think F&M might still be ahead of them, their RvRRO's seem pretty large in this comparison.  I'm also not sure if KS updated the RvRRO numbers for this past week so they might have changed.

23.  Scranton 20-5   .800/.516/1-1
31.  Frank & Marsh 20-5  .800/.505/3-2

I would agree... I am not sure Scranton's win over Catholic is good enough to jump F&M's win over Dickinson. Call those even and go back to the fact F&M has a better vRRO - which is what I think kept them ahead of Scranton last week when both teams took a bad loss into those rankings.

Question for Dave on your .667/under .500 comment

Could the committee really ignore a team like North Central, as the 8th ranked Central Region team (unlikely anyone not ranked gets ranked).  If North Central loses to Augustana this week, this would be their criteria

North Central  16-8       .667/.596/3-6

The SOS is approximated where it should finish playing at Augustana this week.  I think that would be hard to ignore along with their 9 RvRRO's in the final few rounds.

I mean, .667 isn't below .667. 

Yeah... below .667 is the key ... below. I'm not saying a team at .667 is not going to get in... I am just hearing enough stuff to indicate having a 16-9 record (i.e. Carthage last year) isn't going to cut it.

[bopol]

If I recall correctly we all thought Bowdoin was one of the last teams in, in a year with very few Pool A upsets that affected Pool C.

Bowdoin's SOS was mediocre compared to Bates.  Bates has the highest SOS in the land and only 6 losses.  They'll have no trouble getting in.

If I remember correctly from last year's selection is that the regional committee's took feedback from the national committee and we saw some tweeking the second week of the regional rankings along the lines that the national committee wanted to see.  To me, the Central is the one to watch because you have a lot of teams with ok records and awesome SOS mixed with one team with an awesome record and mediocre SOS (St. Norbert).  If the committee puts IWU ahead of St. Norbert, who are clearly superior to Brooklyn, Barach and Franklin and Marshall, then is this an indication that the Pool C selections will rotate through the Central and Northeast and practically ignore the other regions?

[Greek Tragedy]

Just a few observations.

Obviously all three CCIW teams can't win their semi-final games as IWU and Elmhurst play each other. It will be interesting if IWU jumps Elmhurst after their win over them. I really think NCC has to make the final to have any shot. Amd despite the superior SOS, I think it's more important for IWU to beat Elmhurst than the other way around.

Also, the MWC still only has a four-team tourney, as far as I know.

And not that it matyers, Stevens Point is actually in the Pool C grouping as they lost the all important coin flip to Whitewater.  They are the official #1 seed. :-)

[Greek Tragedy]

Oh yeah. I also don't see St. Norbert being an issue. They are so much better than the other 3 MWC teams in the tourney.  If they do end up losing, IWU (and NCC) should jump them and Elmhurst should stay ahead of them.

[KnightSlappy]

Oh yeah. I also don't see St. Norbert being an issue. They are so much better than the other 3 MWC teams in the tourney.  If they do end up losing, IWU (and NCC) should jump them and Elmhurst should stay ahead of them.

If St. Norbert gets to the MWC final, it looks like their SOS will end up being just above .500. I think that gets them IN, with a .920 WP and 0-1 RvRRO.

[ronk]

Good work, Sac.

I also think Scranton will jump F&M this week. Maybe I will put winning % in instead of record this week.

I don't know, I think F&M might still be ahead of them, their RvRRO's seem pretty large in this comparison.  I'm also not sure if KS updated the RvRRO numbers for this past week so they might have changed.

23.  Scranton 20-5   .800/.516/1-1
31.  Frank & Marsh 20-5  .800/.505/3-2

I would agree... I am not sure Scranton's win over Catholic is good enough to jump F&M's win over Dickinson. Call those even and go back to the fact F&M has a better vRRO - which is what I think kept them ahead of Scranton last week when both teams took a bad loss into those rankings.

Question for Dave on your .667/under .500 comment

Could the committee really ignore a team like North Central, as the 8th ranked Central Region team (unlikely anyone not ranked gets ranked).  If North Central loses to Augustana this week, this would be their criteria

North Central  16-8       .667/.596/3-6

The SOS is approximated where it should finish playing at Augustana this week.  I think that would be hard to ignore along with their 9 RvRRO's in the final few rounds.

I mean, .667 isn't below .667. 

Yeah... below .667 is the key ... below. I'm not saying a team at .667 is not going to get in... I am just hearing enough stuff to indicate having a 16-9 record (i.e. Carthage last year) isn't going to cut it.

  F&M had moved ahead of Scranton because of Scranton's loss, but the new rankings should reflect F&M's loss to Gburg since then with Scranton moving ahead of F&M.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

This is true... however, I think F&M's win over Dickinson may counteract the loss and still give them better criteria (except SOS) than Scranton.

[ronk]

 It can't counteract both the loss AND Scranton's win over Catholic. Choose 1 or the other but not both.

[John Gleich]

When discussing Pool C consideration, it's assumed everyone takes one more loss.

That's part of why the UAA has a bit of an advantage (generally) in Pool C. Their Pool C contenders don't have to take the extra loss.

That point is... muted... this year because of the meat grinder that has been the UAA this season... but...

[bopol]

Oh yeah. I also don't see St. Norbert being an issue. They are so much better than the other 3 MWC teams in the tourney.  If they do end up losing, IWU (and NCC) should jump them and Elmhurst should stay ahead of them.

Nah, it isn't St. Norbert being an issue - it's just a question of how can we take what's going on in the Central and compare it to other regions.  If St. Norbert iis sandwiched between 5 loss Elmhurst and 7 loss IWU, then what that say when we compare 7 loss IWU (or 7 loss North Central) to Brooklyn/Barach.  I'd say that it means that IWU and NCC are probably ahead of those two, which pretty much Pool C for the Atlantic ends at William Patterson.  Or if you compare St. Norbert with Franklin and Marshall and Scranton, I think you have to figure Norbert's ahead of both and then where does that put IWU and NCC with F&M and Scranton?

My personal take in the moment is that the Atlantic will get one Pool C, the East none and the Mid-Atlantic none and the West one before every ranked team in the Central will have a Pool C if the current rankings continues to hold true.

[Greek Tragedy]

St. Norbert probably compares with other teams in other regions more equally than IWU or NCC do. I think the masses are saying that they are thinking St. Norbert is a road block for IWU, NCC or Elmhurst. That's what I'm taking that as.

[sac]

if two of Elmhurst, IWU, NCC lose in the semi-finals they'll probably both be behind St. Norbert.  No matter what happens the third CCIW would be one of the last chosen anyway.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

It can't counteract both the loss AND Scranton's win over Catholic. Choose 1 or the other but not both.

You can choose both since Scranton's win only gives them a 1-1 vRRO and F&M has a 3-2 (including a win over a #1 Richard Stockton). Despite the loss, the win over Dickinson allows them to be 3-2 versus 2-3. I understand what you are trying to get at, but Scranton's only vRRO results are against Catholic - no one else.

[ronk]

It can't counteract both the loss AND Scranton's win over Catholic. Choose 1 or the other but not both.

You can choose both since Scranton's win only gives them a 1-1 vRRO and F&M has a 3-2 (including a win over a #1 Richard Stockton). Despite the loss, the win over Dickinson allows them to be 3-2 versus 2-3. I understand what you are trying to get at, but Scranton's only vRRO results are against Catholic - no one else.

You're leaving out the SOS difference which is in Scranton's favor.

[Mr. Ypsi]

It can't counteract both the loss AND Scranton's win over Catholic. Choose 1 or the other but not both.

You can choose both since Scranton's win only gives them a 1-1 vRRO and F&M has a 3-2 (including a win over a #1 Richard Stockton). Despite the loss, the win over Dickinson allows them to be 3-2 versus 2-3. I understand what you are trying to get at, but Scranton's only vRRO results are against Catholic - no one else.

You're leaving out the SOS difference which is in Scranton's favor.

A .011 'advantage' is essentially a tie.