Pool C

[Greek Tragedy]

East #6 Clarkson upsets East #3 Hobart 69-59 in the Liberty League semis.

[bopol]

Thoughts on the last rankings:

Atlantic - I can't see anyone outside of Richard Stockton and William Paterson having a chance at a Pool C.  Barach and Brooklyn are still too far down the list with little chance to improve.

Central - St. Norbert moving ahead of the other three of the CCIW this week, which makes sense because even though their SOS isn't all that, they only have one loss.  UWSP/UWW and Wash U are in.  I think IWU and Elmhurst also are in really good shape no matter what happens in the CCIW tournament this weekend.  North Central is on the bubble and could really use a win this weekend.

East - I'm not getting why Plattsburgh is this high, as I think Skidmore and Hobert should be ahead of them (well, until tonight for Hobert anyway).  That said, I don't see anyone getting a Pool C out of this region if St. John Fisher takes care of business.

Great Lakes - The order makes sense and I see the Mount Union/John Carroll game as a huge one as the team that wins will likely end up in the position to be on the bubble for Pool C and the loser will be waiting for the winner to get out of their way, which probably means no chance for Pool C.

Mid-Atlantic - Franklin and Marshall ahead of Scranton is a bit of a stretch and could make a difference at the end of the Pool C selections.  Dickinson is in at this point.

Northeast - Bates was screwed a bit dropping down to 4 behind Trinity and Amherst, but I don't think it'll matter.  I pretty much see Amherst, Bates and WPI as in at this point with things getting interesting at Bowdoin (who need a RRO win) and Springfield.  I don't think Wesleyan having a chance with 9 losses so they'll have to win the NESCAC tournament.

South - Order makes sense to me; Va. Wesleyan is in as a Pool C. 

West - I think Whitman should be ahead of Buena Vista, but they did clear Dubuque at this point which was a potential roadblock.

Using Knightslappy's Pool C, this is how I see things:

IN:
UW-Whitewater
Bates
Wash U
Va. Wesleyan
Wooster
St. Olaf
Dickinson
William Paterson

Bubble (but on good side):
IWU
WPI
Elmhurst

Bubble (and pushing their luck):
Whitman
North Central
John Carroll
Franklin and Marshall

Bubble (and likely little hope given upsets):
Bowdoin
Springfield
Scranton
Dubuque
Mount Union
Hardin Simmons

[ronk]

Thoughts on the last rankings:

Atlantic - I can't see anyone outside of Richard Stockton and William Paterson having a chance at a Pool C.  Barach and Brooklyn are still too far down the list with little chance to improve.

Central - St. Norbert moving ahead of the other three of the CCIW this week, which makes sense because even though their SOS isn't all that, they only have one loss.  UWSP/UWW and Wash U are in.  I think IWU and Elmhurst also are in really good shape no matter what happens in the CCIW tournament this weekend.  North Central is on the bubble and could really use a win this weekend.

East - I'm not getting why Plattsburgh is this high, as I think Skidmore and Hobert should be ahead of them (well, until tonight for Hobert anyway).  That said, I don't see anyone getting a Pool C out of this region if St. John Fisher takes care of business.

Great Lakes - The order makes sense and I see the Mount Union/John Carroll game as a huge one as the team that wins will likely end up in the position to be on the bubble for Pool C and the loser will be waiting for the winner to get out of their way, which probably means no chance for Pool C.

Mid-Atlantic - Franklin and Marshall ahead of Scranton is a bit of a stretch and could make a difference at the end of the Pool C selections.  Dickinson is in at this point.

Northeast - Bates was screwed a bit dropping down to 4 behind Trinity and Amherst, but I don't think it'll matter.  I pretty much see Amherst, Bates and WPI as in at this point with things getting interesting at Bowdoin (who need a RRO win) and Springfield.  I don't think Wesleyan having a chance with 9 losses so they'll have to win the NESCAC tournament.

South - Order makes sense to me; Va. Wesleyan is in as a Pool C. 

West - I think Whitman should be ahead of Buena Vista, but they did clear Dubuque at this point which was a potential roadblock.

Using Knightslappy's Pool C, this is how I see things:

IN:
UW-Whitewater
Bates
Wash U
Va. Wesleyan
Wooster
St. Olaf
Dickinson
William Paterson

Bubble (but on good side):
IWU
WPI
Elmhurst

Bubble (and pushing their luck):
Whitman
North Central
John Carroll
Franklin and Marshall

Bubble (and likely little hope given upsets):
Bowdoin
Springfield
Scranton
Dubuque
Mount Union
Hardin Simmons

  The loser of F&M-Dickinson semi should fall behind the loser of the Catholic-Scranton final in the RRs because the latter will add 1 additional victory and vrro result for the final rankings over the former.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I can't see a scenario where Dickinson falls behind Scranton. If F&M losses and Scranton wins, I could see them flipping. I also am not sure Dickinson would fall behind Catholic because a) the SOS is so significantly different and b) the committee(s) have had that chance to make that move in the last few rankings and haven't (following a Dickinson lost).

[Greek Tragedy]

Week 3

WK2	TEAM	D3/Overall	W%	vRRO	SOS	Ave.
Atl#1	Richard Stockton (NJAC)	20-5 20-5	0.800	5-1	0.573	0.687
Atl#2	William Paterson (NJAC)	19-6 19-6	0.760	5-2	0.557	0.659
Atl#3	Baruch (CUNYAC)	19-6 19-6	0.760	3-2	0.513	0.637
Atl#4	Brooklyn (CUNYAC)	21-5 21-5	0.808	3-3	0.491	0.650
Atl#5	Rutgers-Newark (NJAC)	18-8 18-8	0.692	1-5	0.566	0.629
Atl#6	Sage College (SKY)	20-4 21-4	0.833	1-1	0.455	0.644
Atl#7	Misericordia  (MACF)	19-6 19-6	0.760	1-3	0.482	0.621
WK2	TEAM	D3/Overall	W%	vRRO	SOS	Ave.
C#1	Augustana (CCIW)	21-4 21-4	0.840	5-2	0.577	0.709
C#2	Whitewater (WIAC)	21-2 22-3	0.913	2-2	0.549	0.731
C#3	Stevens Point (WIAC)	21-4 21-4	0.840	2-4	0.575	0.708
C#4	Washington U. (UAA)	19-5 19-5	0.792	4-3	0.563	0.678
C#5	St. Norbert (MWC)	22-1 22-1	0.957	0-1	0.494	0.726
C#6	IWU (CCIW)	18-7 18-7	0.720	4-4	0.576	0.648
C#7	Elmhurst (CCIW)	19-6 19-6	0.760	4-3	0.544	0.652
C#8	North Central (CCIW)	16-7 18-7	0.696	3-5	0.573	0.635
WK2	TEAM	D3/Overall	W%	vRRO	SOS	Ave.
E#1	St. John Fisher (E8)	21-4 21-4	0.840	0-0	0.508	0.674
E#2	Plattsburgh St.  (SUNYAC)	18-7 18-7	0.720	1-0	0.527	0.624
E#3	Hobart   (LL)	18-6 18-7	0.750	3-1	0.505	0.628
E#4	Skidmore (LL)	17-7 17-7	0.708	2-4	0.552	0.630
E#5	NYU (UAA)	16-8 16-8	0.667	4-3	0.547	0.607
E#6	Clarkson (LL)	18-6 19-6	0.750	1-4	0.493	0.622
WK2	TEAM	D3/Overall	W%	vRRO	SOS	Ave.
GL#1	Marietta (OAC)	23-2 23-2	0.920	3-2	0.506	0.713
GL#2	Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC)	21-4 21-4	0.840	3-1	0.534	0.687
GL#3	Wooster (NCAC)	20-5 20-5	0.800	2-2	0.543	0.672
GL#4	John Carroll (OAC)	19-5 19-5	0.792	3-2	0.517	0.655
GL#5	Mount Union (OAC)	19-6 19-6	0.760	2-4	0.530	0.645
GL#6	PS-Behrend (AMCC)	23-2 23-2	0.920	0-1	0.457	0.689
GL#7	Calvin (MIAA)	18-5 19-6	0.783	2-1	0.502	0.643
GL#8	St. Vincent (PAC)	18-6 19-6	0.750	2-2	0.516	0.633
GL#9	Hope (MIAA)	16-7 17-8	0.696	2-5	0.543	0.620
WK2	TEAM	D3/Overall	W%	vRRO	SOS	Ave.
MA#1	Johns Hopkins (CC)	22-3 22-3	0.880	3-2	0.528	0.704
MA#2	Dickinson (CC)	20-5 20-5	0.800	3-2	0.539	0.670
MA#3	Catholic (LAND)	21-3 21-4	0.875	1-1	0.495	0.685
MA#4	Franklin and Marshall (CC)	20-5 20-5	0.800	3-2	0.504	0.652
MA#5	Scranton (LAND)	20-5 20-5	0.800	1-1	0.514	0.657
MA#6	St. Mary's (Md.) (CAC)	18-4 20-4	0.818	0-0	0.480	0.649
WK2	TEAM	D3/Overall	W%	vRRO	SOS	Ave.
NE#1	Babson (NEWMAC)	23-2 23-2	0.920	6-2	0.559	0.740
NE#2	Trinity (Ct.) (NESCAC)	19-4 20-5	0.826	4-0	0.530	0.678
NE#3	Amherst (NESCAC)	19-6 19-6	0.760	4-2	0.568	0.664
NE#4	Bates (NESCAC)	19-6 19-6	0.760	3-4	0.611	0.686
NE#5	Eastern Connecticut (LEC)	21-4 21-4	0.840	2-2	0.554	0.697
NE#6	WPI (NEWMAC)	21-4 21-4	0.840	2-2	0.507	0.674
NE#7	Albertus Magnus (GNAC)	24-1 24-1	0.960	0-1	0.473	0.717
NE#8	Bowdoin (NESCAC)	18-7 18-7	0.720	1-4	0.565	0.643
NE#9	Springfield (NEWMAC)	18-7 18-7	0.720	2-4	0.564	0.642
NE#10	Southern Vermont (NECC)	21-2 22-3	0.913	0-1	0.478	0.696
NE#11	Wesleyan (NESCAC)	17-8 17-8	0.680	3-4	0.547	0.614
WK2	TEAM	D3/Overall	W%	vRRO	SOS	Ave.
So#1	RMC (ODAC)	23-2 23-2	0.920	4-0	0.536	0.728
So#2	Emory (UAA)	19-5 19-5	0.792	5-3	0.562	0.677
So#3	VWU (ODAC)	20-4 20-4	0.833	0-3	0.538	0.686
So#4	East Texas Baptist (ASC)	20-5 20-5	0.800	4-2	0.515	0.658
So#5	Centre (SAA)	19-4 20-4	0.826	0-1	0.517	0.672
So#6	Hardin-Simmons (ASC)	19-6 19-6	0.760	3-3	0.520	0.640
So#7	Rhodes (ASC)	18-5 18-6	0.783	1-2	0.497	0.640
So#8	Mary Hardin-Baylor (SAA)	17-8 17-8	0.680	2-5	0.534	0.607
WK2	TEAM	D3/Overall	W%	vRRO	SOS	Ave.
W#1	St. Thomas (MIAC)	22-3 22-3	0.880	5-0	0.568	0.724
W#2	St. Olaf (MIAC)	21-4 21-4	0.840	1-2	0.522	0.681
W#3	Buena Vista (IIAC)	18-6 18-7	0.750	2-1	0.526	0.638
W#4	Whitman (NWC)	19-4 20-5	0.826	2-3	0.514	0.670
W#5	Whitworth (NWC)	22-3 22-3	0.880	1-3	0.480	0.680
W#6	Dubuque (IIAC)	19-5 20-5	0.792	0-3	0.523	0.658
W#7	Bethel (MIAC)	17-8 17-8	0.680	3-2	0.539	0.610

[Greek Tragedy]

ranked by SOS

WK3	TEAM	D3/Overall	W%	vRRO	SOS	Ave.
NE#4	Bates (NESCAC)	19-6 19-6	0.760	3-4	0.611	0.686
C#1	Augustana (CCIW)	21-4 21-4	0.840	5-2	0.577	0.709
C#6	IWU (CCIW)	18-7 18-7	0.720	4-4	0.576	0.648
C#3	Stevens Point (WIAC)	21-4 21-4	0.840	2-4	0.575	0.708
Atl#1	Richard Stockton (NJAC)	20-5 20-5	0.800	5-1	0.573	0.687
C#8	North Central (CCIW)	16-7 18-7	0.696	3-5	0.573	0.635
NE#3	Amherst (NESCAC)	19-6 19-6	0.760	4-2	0.568	0.664
W#1	St. Thomas (MIAC)	22-3 22-3	0.880	5-0	0.568	0.724
Atl#5	Rutgers-Newark (NJAC)	18-8 18-8	0.692	1-5	0.566	0.629
NE#8	Bowdoin (NESCAC)	18-7 18-7	0.720	1-4	0.565	0.643
NE#9	Springfield (NEWMAC)	18-7 18-7	0.720	2-4	0.564	0.642
C#4	Washington U. (UAA)	19-5 19-5	0.792	4-3	0.563	0.678
So#2	Emory (UAA)	19-5 19-5	0.792	5-3	0.562	0.677
NE#1	Babson (NEWMAC)	23-2 23-2	0.920	6-2	0.559	0.740
Atl#2	William Paterson (NJAC)	19-6 19-6	0.760	5-2	0.557	0.659
NE#5	Eastern Connecticut (LEC)	21-4 21-4	0.840	2-2	0.554	0.697
E#4	Skidmore (LL)	17-7 17-7	0.708	2-4	0.552	0.630
C#2	Whitewater (WIAC)	21-2 22-3	0.913	2-2	0.549	0.731
E#5	NYU (UAA)	16-8 16-8	0.667	4-3	0.547	0.607
NE#11	Wesleyan (NESCAC)	17-8 17-8	0.680	3-4	0.547	0.614
C#7	Elmhurst (CCIW)	19-6 19-6	0.760	4-3	0.544	0.652
GL#3	Wooster (NCAC)	20-5 20-5	0.800	2-2	0.543	0.672
GL#9	Hope (MIAA)	16-7 17-8	0.696	2-5	0.543	0.620
MA#2	Dickinson (CC)	20-5 20-5	0.800	3-2	0.539	0.670
W#7	Bethel (MIAC)	17-8 17-8	0.680	3-2	0.539	0.610
So#3	VWU (ODAC)	20-4 20-4	0.833	0-3	0.538	0.686
So#1	RMC (ODAC)	23-2 23-2	0.920	4-0	0.536	0.728
GL#2	Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC)	21-4 21-4	0.840	3-1	0.534	0.687
So#8	Mary Hardin-Baylor (SAA)	17-8 17-8	0.680	2-5	0.534	0.607
GL#5	Mount Union (OAC)	19-6 19-6	0.760	2-4	0.530	0.645
NE#2	Trinity (Ct.) (NESCAC)	19-4 20-5	0.826	4-0	0.530	0.678
MA#1	Johns Hopkins (CC)	22-3 22-3	0.880	3-2	0.528	0.704
E#2	Plattsburgh St.  (SUNYAC)	18-7 18-7	0.720	1-0	0.527	0.624
W#3	Buena Vista (IIAC)	18-6 18-7	0.750	2-1	0.526	0.638
W#6	Dubuque (IIAC)	19-5 20-5	0.792	0-3	0.523	0.658
W#2	St. Olaf (MIAC)	21-4 21-4	0.840	1-2	0.522	0.681
So#6	Hardin-Simmons (ASC)	19-6 19-6	0.760	3-3	0.520	0.640
GL#4	John Carroll (OAC)	19-5 19-5	0.792	3-2	0.517	0.655
So#5	Centre (SAA)	19-4 20-4	0.826	0-1	0.517	0.672
GL#8	St. Vincent (PAC)	18-6 19-6	0.750	2-2	0.516	0.633
So#4	East Texas Baptist (ASC)	20-5 20-5	0.800	4-2	0.515	0.658
MA#5	Scranton (LAND)	20-5 20-5	0.800	1-1	0.514	0.657
W#4	Whitman (NWC)	19-4 20-5	0.826	2-3	0.514	0.670
Atl#3	Baruch (CUNYAC)	19-6 19-6	0.760	3-2	0.513	0.637
E#1	St. John Fisher (E8)	21-4 21-4	0.840	0-0	0.508	0.674
NE#6	WPI (NEWMAC)	21-4 21-4	0.840	2-2	0.507	0.674
GL#1	Marietta (OAC)	23-2 23-2	0.920	3-2	0.506	0.713
E#3	Hobart   (LL)	18-6 18-7	0.750	3-1	0.505	0.628
MA#4	Franklin and Marshall (CC)	20-5 20-5	0.800	3-2	0.504	0.652
GL#7	Calvin (MIAA)	18-5 19-6	0.783	2-1	0.502	0.643
So#7	Rhodes (ASC)	18-5 18-6	0.783	1-2	0.497	0.640
MA#3	Catholic (LAND)	21-3 21-4	0.875	1-1	0.495	0.685
C#5	St. Norbert (MWC)	22-1 22-1	0.957	0-1	0.494	0.726
E#6	Clarkson (LL)	18-6 19-6	0.750	1-4	0.493	0.622
Atl#4	Brooklyn (CUNYAC)	21-5 21-5	0.808	3-3	0.491	0.650
Atl#7	Misericordia  (MACF)	19-6 19-6	0.760	1-3	0.482	0.621
MA#6	St. Mary's (Md.) (CAC)	18-4 20-4	0.818	0-0	0.480	0.649
W#5	Whitworth (NWC)	22-3 22-3	0.880	1-3	0.480	0.680
NE#10	Southern Vermont (NECC)	21-2 22-3	0.913	0-1	0.478	0.696
NE#7	Albertus Magnus (GNAC)	24-1 24-1	0.960	0-1	0.473	0.717
GL#6	PS-Behrend (AMCC)	23-2 23-2	0.920	0-1	0.457	0.689
Atl#6	Sage College (SKY)	20-4 21-4	0.833	1-1	0.455	0.644

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Great Lakes - The order makes sense and I see the Mount Union/John Carroll game as a huge one as the team that wins will likely end up in the position to be on the bubble for Pool C and the loser will be waiting for the winner to get out of their way, which probably means no chance for Pool C.

Looking at the numbers, the loser of tonight's game is done for the season, without question.  I cannot envision a Pool C scenario in which  tonight's loser is given a Pool C bid over tonight's winner.  This is especially true if tonight's winner goes on to win the OAC championship against (I would assume) Marietta.  In that scenario, tonight's loser would need to picked over or in addition to Marietta and the numbers do not support that, either.  The OAC has little chance of getting two teams in and no chance of getting three teams in.  In fact, it is still my opinion that the best way for the OAC to get two teams in would be in the OAC champ/Pool A is NOT Marietta.  If it's Marietta as champ, then tonight's winner will be on the bubble and cheering hard for the favorites the rest of the way.

In short, Mount and JCU better win their next two if they want to be playing next week.  They would have a chance of getting in "off the bubble" but it is not a chance I would want to take.

[KnightSlappy]

Thinking way ahead to flights/geography issues, it looks like SCIAC, NWC, ASC, and SCAC will all be one-bid leagues. Maybe East Texas Baptist could get a Pool C bid, but it would not be a guarantee. Maybe I'm also discounting the NWC runner-up too much as well.

So, we're probably looking at SCIAC and NWC champs flying to Texas to make a pod there with the winner flying out for the sectional round. There's no way around three flights here, but this would ensure that there are no more than three flights from this group before the Final Four, and it wouldn't make for an unfair pod either. It would also mean the two byes could be used to seeding or to balance the bracket rather than for geography (unless I'm missing another geographic outlier).

[sac]

Great Lakes - The order makes sense and I see the Mount Union/John Carroll game as a huge one as the team that wins will likely end up in the position to be on the bubble for Pool C and the loser will be waiting for the winner to get out of their way, which probably means no chance for Pool C.

Looking at the numbers, the loser of tonight's game is done for the season, without question.  I cannot envision a Pool C scenario in which  tonight's loser is given a Pool C bid over tonight's winner.  This is especially true if tonight's winner goes on to win the OAC championship against (I would assume) Marietta.  In that scenario, tonight's loser would need to picked over or in addition to Marietta and the numbers do not support that, either.  The OAC has little chance of getting two teams in and no chance of getting three teams in.  In fact, it is still my opinion that the best way for the OAC to get two teams in would be in the OAC champ/Pool A is NOT Marietta.  If it's Marietta as champ, then tonight's winner will be on the bubble and cheering hard for the favorites the rest of the way.

In short, Mount and JCU better win their next two if they want to be playing next week.  They would have a chance of getting in "off the bubble" but it is not a chance I would want to take.

I wouldn't totally discount John Carroll as a true 'C'.  If they win tonight and lose to Marietta, they present 20-6 with an sos around .530(or better) and 4-4 v RRO's  to the committee with wins over St. Norbert and Marietta.  They must play Marietta Saturday though. 

That's not slam dunk in, but they would be in the conversation and it would be highly dependent on those Pool A upsets.

If Wooster loses tonight, that would also open the door for JCU.

Mt. Union won't have the same strong kind of criteria with a win tonight/loss Saturday.

[dcahill44]

Thoughts on the last rankings:

Atlantic - I can't see anyone outside of Richard Stockton and William Paterson having a chance at a Pool C.  Barach and Brooklyn are still too far down the list with little chance to improve.

Central - St. Norbert moving ahead of the other three of the CCIW this week, which makes sense because even though their SOS isn't all that, they only have one loss.  UWSP/UWW and Wash U are in.  I think IWU and Elmhurst also are in really good shape no matter what happens in the CCIW tournament this weekend.  North Central is on the bubble and could really use a win this weekend.

East - I'm not getting why Plattsburgh is this high, as I think Skidmore and Hobart should be ahead of them (well, until tonight for Hobart anyway).  That said, I don't see anyone getting a Pool C out of this region if St. John Fisher takes care of business.

Great Lakes - The order makes sense and I see the Mount Union/John Carroll game as a huge one as the team that wins will likely end up in the position to be on the bubble for Pool C and the loser will be waiting for the winner to get out of their way, which probably means no chance for Pool C.

Mid-Atlantic - Franklin and Marshall ahead of Scranton is a bit of a stretch and could make a difference at the end of the Pool C selections.  Dickinson is in at this point.

Northeast - Bates was screwed a bit dropping down to 4 behind Trinity and Amherst, but I don't think it'll matter.  I pretty much see Amherst, Bates and WPI as in at this point with things getting interesting at Bowdoin (who need a RRO win) and Springfield.  I don't think Wesleyan having a chance with 9 losses so they'll have to win the NESCAC tournament.

South - Order makes sense to me; Va. Wesleyan is in as a Pool C. 

West - I think Whitman should be ahead of Buena Vista, but they did clear Dubuque at this point which was a potential roadblock.

Using Knightslappy's Pool C, this is how I see things:

IN:
UW-Whitewater
Bates
Wash U
Va. Wesleyan
Wooster
St. Olaf
Dickinson
William Paterson

Bubble (but on good side):
IWU
WPI
Elmhurst

Bubble (and pushing their luck):
Whitman
North Central
John Carroll
Franklin and Marshall

Bubble (and likely little hope given upsets):
Bowdoin
Springfield
Scranton
Dubuque
Mount Union
Hardin Simmons

For Plattsburgh being ahead of Skidmore i think the head to head factor may have done it. For Plattsburgh being ahead of Hobart i think that is directly related to Hobart low SOS number. Hobart SOS .505, Plattsburgh SOS .527, Skidmore SOS .552. Also Hobart is 3-1 against regionally ranked teams. (2 wins against Skidmore and win against Clarkson). Plattsburgh 1-0 against regionally ranked opponents. (win vs Skidmore). Skidmore record against regionally ranked opponents is 2-4.

[ronk]

I can't see a scenario where Dickinson falls behind Scranton. If F&M losses and Scranton wins, I could see them flipping. I also am not sure Dickinson would fall behind Catholic because a) the SOS is so significantly different and b) the committee(s) have had that chance to make that move in the last few rankings and haven't (following a Dickinson lost).

  There's new data to be considered for the next vote which would favor Catholic if Dickinson loses the semi; that they haven't moved them ahead in previous votes is largely irrelevant if the previous difference is small.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

I wouldn't totally discount John Carroll as a true 'C'.  If they win tonight and lose to Marietta, they present 20-6 with an sos around .530(or better) and 4-4 v RRO's  to the committee with wins over St. Norbert and Marietta.  They must play Marietta Saturday though. 

That's not slam dunk in, but they would be in the conversation and it would be highly dependent on those Pool A upsets.

If Wooster loses tonight, that would also open the door for JCU.

Mt. Union won't have the same strong kind of criteria with a win tonight/loss Saturday.

I don't disagree that JCU might be in the conversation with a loss to Marietta but I still think they would be squarely on the bubble and too dependent on the Pool A upsets to have any level of comfort. If they are able to sneak in, it would be, in my opinion, as one of the last two teams in unless the Pool A upsets are very few.

[sac]

Thinking way ahead to flights/geography issues, it looks like SCIAC, NWC, ASC, and SCAC will all be one-bid leagues. Maybe East Texas Baptist could get a Pool C bid, but it would not be a guarantee. Maybe I'm also discounting the NWC runner-up too much as well.

So, we're probably looking at SCIAC and NWC champs flying to Texas to make a pod there with the winner flying out for the sectional round. There's no way around three flights here, but this would ensure that there are no more than three flights from this group before the Final Four, and it wouldn't make for an unfair pod either. It would also mean the two byes could be used to seeding or to balance the bracket rather than for geography (unless I'm missing another geographic outlier).

What are you doing with Emory?

I don't see anyone other that Centre(again) that can get to Atlanta without a flight.   Emory's #2 ranking suggests they might be in line to host.


Edit**
Emory hosts
ASC
NWC
SCIAC

SCAC champ, (hopefully Centre) goes to Marietta

[KnightSlappy]

Thinking way ahead to flights/geography issues, it looks like SCIAC, NWC, ASC, and SCAC will all be one-bid leagues. Maybe East Texas Baptist could get a Pool C bid, but it would not be a guarantee. Maybe I'm also discounting the NWC runner-up too much as well.

So, we're probably looking at SCIAC and NWC champs flying to Texas to make a pod there with the winner flying out for the sectional round. There's no way around three flights here, but this would ensure that there are no more than three flights from this group before the Final Four, and it wouldn't make for an unfair pod either. It would also mean the two byes could be used to seeding or to balance the bracket rather than for geography (unless I'm missing another geographic outlier).

What are you doing with Emory?

I don't see anyone other that Centre(again) that can get to Atlanta without a flight.   Emory's #2 ranking suggests they might be in line to host.


Edit**
Emory hosts
ASC
NWC
SCIAC

SCAC champ, (hopefully Centre) goes to Marietta

Could do:

Emory
bye
Centre/SAA
Averett/USAC

Spalding could get there if they win the SLIAC. Otherwise we'd have to (1) use a bye here or (2) send that pod to Centre. And they'll send the pod to Centre long before adding flights.

And obviously it depends on who actually comes out of the SAA and USAC and if you could get them to each other within 500 miles for the Thursday game.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I can't see a scenario where Dickinson falls behind Scranton. If F&M losses and Scranton wins, I could see them flipping. I also am not sure Dickinson would fall behind Catholic because a) the SOS is so significantly different and b) the committee(s) have had that chance to make that move in the last few rankings and haven't (following a Dickinson lost).

  There's new data to be considered for the next vote which would favor Catholic if Dickinson loses the semi; that they haven't moved them ahead in previous votes is largely irrelevant if the previous difference is small.

ronk - what new data?

Dickinson     20-5     .539     3-2 vRRO
Catholic        21-3     .495     1-1 vRRO

No matter what, both SOSs climb, but Dickinson's will climb more (playing one or two teams with better records than CUA is playing) - and that is already beyond the significant .030 to two games to make the WL% a wash. If Dickinson gets to the title game, they are guaranteed two additional games to the vRRO... but at least one if they lose on Friday whereas Catholic can't gain more than one game there... furthermore, the vRRO is ONLY against Scranton for Catholic whereas Dickinson has multiple teams they have played (North Central, F&M, and Johns Hopkins)... worse case Dickinson is 3-3 and Catholic is 1-2. Even if North Central were to fall out of the rankings, Dickinson would still be 2-3 with wins over higher ranked teams than Catholic.

What data could possibly move CUA ahead of Dickinson if both teams lose?