Pool C

[7express]

So, if North Central beats Elmhurst in the CCIW championship game how many teams get in from the CCIW??  2, 3 or all 4??

[Mr. Ypsi]

So, if North Central beats Elmhurst in the CCIW championship game how many teams get in from the CCIW??  2, 3 or all 4??

Under that scenario, I'd say 3.  I think with one more win IWU is a lock, but if they lose to Elmhurst they're very much bubble and probably on the wrong side of it.

[KnightSlappy]

So, if North Central beats Elmhurst in the CCIW championship game how many teams get in from the CCIW??  2, 3 or all 4??

Under that scenario, I'd say 3.  I think with one more win IWU is a lock, but if they lose to Elmhurst they're very much bubble and probably on the wrong side of it.

I'd still like IWU better than Buena Vista and NYU. IWU is a lock with one more win, and perhaps not worse than 50-50 if they lose tonight.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

KnightSlappy... in your example of NYU... you have them for a .667 WL%... if they beat Brandeis that would be a better number and that's why I think they are in play with that SOS and vRRO (especially who they have beaten) being a key factor. If they have lost to Brandeis... they have no chance.

And thanks, magicman! +k - late nights are taking their toll. LOL

[KnightSlappy]

KnightSlappy... in your example of NYU... you have them for a .667 WL%... if they beat Brandeis that would be a better number and that's why I think they are in play with that SOS and vRRO (especially who they have beaten) being a key factor. If they have lost to Brandeis... they have no chance.

And thanks, magicman! +k - late nights are taking their toll. LOL

So if NYU wins and IWU loses, we're looking at something close to:

New York University   EA   0.680   / 0.544   / 3-2 (1-1 vs. Wash U)
Illinois Wesleyan   CE   0.692   / 0.581   / 4-5 (0-1 vs. Wash U)

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yeah... that's why I think they are in play. And you are just using the comparable vRRO... NYU will also have a 2-0 v Emory and a 1-1 v Chicago (if they are relevant).

[7express]

So, if North Central beats Elmhurst in the CCIW championship game how many teams get in from the CCIW??  2, 3 or all 4??

Under that scenario, I'd say 3.  I think with one more win IWU is a lock, but if they lose to Elmhurst they're very much bubble and probably on the wrong side of it.

And if Elmhurst loses tonight they are all but done??

[sac]

Yeah... that's why I think they are in play. And you are just using the comparable vRRO... NYU will also have a 2-0 v Emory and a 1-1 v Chicago (if they are relevant).

I really don't see how you are arriving at that group of NYU criteria being better than IWU's.

IWU has better w% against a more difficult schedule with more RvRRO's and wins over Buena Vista, Augustana, Elmhurst North Central.  Common opponent are WashU (NYU 1-1, IWU  0-1)  Chicago  (NYU 1-1, IWU 1-0)

They both lost at WashU, IWU didn't get to play them at home.  They both beat Chicago at home, IWU didn't get to play them away.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

sac - I never claimed NYU gets in over IWU... I am simply saying I think NYU has more of a chance as an at-large than many had previously expected. NYU could still be left out of the tournament, but there is a real chance (baring SJF, Skidmore, or Plattsburgh lose) that NYU is the first East team to the table for an at-large. They have an interesting case. That is all I am saying.

[Greek Tragedy]

I could never figure out SOS and probably too impatient to tey, but what's this .03 = 2 wins thing? Basically what you arw saying is if someone has 2 less wins/2 more losses but their SOS is .03 better, that evens out?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

As Jeff Burns explained on my Hoopsville interview in January... NCAA stats has found that a difference of .030 in the SOS is significant and thus equal to about two games. I have no idea the explanation, but as a result, if you have the following comparison:

Team A     16-4     .560
Team B     18-2     .530

...essentially their WL and SOS would be considered a wash... even. If Team A had Team B's SOS their record would probably also be 18-2 and vise versa. It is just a way for the committees to better understand SOS and WL% between teams.

Burns also pointed out that just because .030 equals two games does NOT mean .060 equals 4 games... it becomes less clear when you get that far a part.

[sac]

sac - I never claimed NYU gets in over IWU... I am simply saying I think NYU has more of a chance as an at-large than many had previously expected. NYU could still be left out of the tournament, but there is a real chance (baring SJF, Skidmore, or Plattsburgh lose) that NYU is the first East team to the table for an at-large. They have an interesting case. That is all I am saying.

All right I see that now, it sure looked like you guys were comparing IWU to NYU.

[sac]

E. Conn was down 15 early to Keene St., potential bubble buster
http://d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2014-15/boxscores/20150227_5wgc.xml

[7express]

E. Conn was down 15 early to Keene St., potential bubble buster
http://d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2014-15/boxscores/20150227_5wgc.xml

Keene leads 41-31 at halftime.  In the regular season matchup 2 weeks ago, Keene was up 11 in the first half (I think up 5 or 6 at halftime) before they choked in the second and lost by 6.  I'd look for Eastern to come out strong to begin the second.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

sac - I never claimed NYU gets in over IWU... I am simply saying I think NYU has more of a chance as an at-large than many had previously expected. NYU could still be left out of the tournament, but there is a real chance (baring SJF, Skidmore, or Plattsburgh lose) that NYU is the first East team to the table for an at-large. They have an interesting case. That is all I am saying.

All right I see that now, it sure looked like you guys were comparing IWU to NYU.

I think KnightSlappy was just trying to show a comparison of two teams who might be at the table at the same time.