Pool C

KnightSlappy · March 01, 2015, 05:05:02 PM

Quote from: magicman on March 01, 2015, 05:03:08 PM
KnightSlappy,

You're showing NYU ahead of Plattsburgh State in the East. They were 2nd last week, NYU was 5th. Plattsburgh's new vRRO could be 4-1 instead of 1-0 with yesterday's results and the next set of secret rankings. I don't see NYU getting to the table before Plattsburgh. Plattsburgh may sit there through all 19 rounds but I think they'll be at the table and will get the only bid from the East if anyone gets one.

That's pure RPI, no adjustments made for anything else. See my post above with my "real" thoughts on the rankings.

KnightSlappy · March 01, 2015, 05:06:31 PM

Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2015, 05:04:49 PM

I'm most surprised by the Bethel over St. Olaf. It makes sense, they did beat them three times, but that might jeopardize St. Olaf's chances, no?

Yeah, and you could argue Whitman on top of those two as well. Or really any ordering of those three. There's certainly a debate there. Bethel's RvRRO sets them apart.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · March 01, 2015, 05:10:11 PM

Now updated.

Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2015, 03:00:24 PM
William Patterson
Stevens Point
WashU
Marietta
Ohio Wesleyan
Wooster
Hopkins
Trinity
Amherst
Bates
E Conn
VA Wesleyan
IWU

Those are the only teams I can talk myself into as locks right now.

So then we've got a table with: Brooklyn (.786/.507), Plattsburgh (.704/.534), Catholic (.846/.506), Springfield (.704/.584), Elmhurst (.731/.551), John Carroll (.769/.527), Centre (.800/.512), and Bethel (.679/.564)

Behind them you've got St. Olaf (.808/.527), North Central (.667/.588), Hope (.680/.558), Hardin-Simmons (.741/.531), F&M (.769/.517), Rutgers-Newark (.667/.572), NYU (.680/.544), and Bowdoin (.692/.571)

Possible stranglers: WPI (.808/.515), PSU-Behrend (.885/.469), Whitman (.792/.519), Buena Vista (.720/.528)

Obviously, I don't know the ranking order, so they could get moved around. I don't see anyone not on this list getting in though.

By the way, if you're asking me, I think the final five are: Springfield, Elmhurst, Bowdoin, North Central, Bethel, and St. Olaf.

7express · March 01, 2015, 05:18:10 PM

When I get home I'll make my predictions, but considering how awful I was the last 3 years, you may want to pick the opposite of what I do.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · March 01, 2015, 05:23:11 PM

So now they can fly Whitworth to E Texas Baptist (with TX Lutheran and Hendrix) and they can fly CMS to Emory (along with Spalding and LaGrange). Truly deserving teams can get the byes.

Titan Q · March 01, 2015, 05:38:15 PM

My best shot...let me know if anything looks out of whack.

(All data is from KnightSlappy's site - http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html.)

Round 1
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Marietta (.893/.519/4-3)
MA - Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
NE - Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 2
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
MA - Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
NE - Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 3
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 4
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - Washington U. (.800/.565/4-2)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 5
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 6
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 7
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Amherst (.741/.579/6-3)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 8
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Bates (.760/.609/4-5)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 9
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 10
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 11
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 12
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - Elmhurst (.731/.551/4-4)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 13
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 14
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Centre (.800/.513/1-2)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 15
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Hope (.680/.558/2-6)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Centre (.800/.513/1-2)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 16
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Hope (.680/.558/2-6)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Centre (.800/.513/1-2)
W - Bethel (.679/.564/4-3)

Round 17
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Hope (.680/.558/2-6)
MA - Franklin & Marshall (.769/.517/3-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Centre (.800/.513/1-2)
W - Bethel (.679/.564/4-3)

Round 18
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Hope (.680/.558/2-6)
MA - Franklin & Marshall (.769/.517/3-3)
NE - WPI (.808/.515/2-3)
S - Centre (.800/.513/1-2)
W - Bethel (.679/.564/4-3)

Round 19
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Hope (.680/.558/2-6)
MA - Franklin & Marshall (.769/.517/3-3)
NE - Bowdoin (.692/.571/1-6)
S - Centre (.800/.513/1-2)
W - Bethel (.679/.564/4-3)

Mr. Ypsi · March 01, 2015, 05:43:34 PM

KS and HF, I think you guys have got it wrong about the West. True, Bethel went 3-0 against St. Olaf, but St. Olaf didn't lose to Hamline, Carleton, or Concordia-Moorhead! I suspect the committee will discount somewhat the Bethel/Olaf results as just some sort of a match-up problem, unique to that situation. With Bethel having FOUR more losses than Olaf, I just can't see them going ahead of them despite the H-to-H (after all, Bethel was already 2-0 against them with the last published rankings, yet Olaf was #2, Bethel #7).

Mr. Ypsi · March 01, 2015, 05:52:13 PM

Q, looks pretty good to me, though I think NCC's SOS may get them in about round 18 or 19.

magicman makes a case that the secret final rankings may include both Oswego St. and Keene St., which would raise his Plattsburgh vRRO to 4-1. If he's right, would that change your picks?

Titan Q · March 01, 2015, 05:55:57 PM

So per above, I have:

1. (GL) Marietta (.893/.519/4-3)
2. (MA) Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
3. (C) UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
4. (C) Washington U. (.800/.565/4-2)
5. (GL) Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
6. (NE) Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
7. (NE) Amherst (.741/.579/6-3)
8. (NE) Bates (.760/.609/4-5)
9. (AT) William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
10. (GL) Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
11. (C) Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
12. (C) Elmhurst (.731/.551/4-4)
13. (S) Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
14. GL John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
15. (W) St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)
16. (MA) Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)[/b]
17. (NE) Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
18. (NE) - WPI (.808/.515/2-3)
19. (W) - Bethel (.679/.564/4-3)

Titan Q · March 01, 2015, 05:56:37 PM

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on March 01, 2015, 05:52:13 PM
Q, looks pretty good to me, though I think NCC's SOS may get them in about round 18 or 19.

magicman makes a case that the secret final rankings may include both Oswego St. and Keene St., which would raise his Plattsburgh vRRO to 4-1. If he's right, would that change your picks?

Yes, if Plattsburgh State has a 4-1 in RRO, I'd have them in.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · March 01, 2015, 05:56:53 PM

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on March 01, 2015, 05:43:34 PM
KS and HF, I think you guys have got it wrong about the West. True, Bethel went 3-0 against St. Olaf, but St. Olaf didn't lose to Hamline, Carleton, or Concordia-Moorhead! I suspect the committee will discount somewhat the Bethel/Olaf results as just some sort of a match-up problem, unique to that situation. With Bethel having FOUR more losses than Olaf, I just can't see them going ahead of them despite the H-to-H (after all, Bethel was already 2-0 against them with the last published rankings, yet Olaf was #2, Bethel #7).

Yeah, but it's only two wins difference. Plus the vRRO difference, plus the head to head, plus the SOS difference. I'm not saying it has to be that way, but it would be very hard for the committee to say St. Olaf is better by the numbers.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · March 01, 2015, 05:59:12 PM

Quote from: Titan Q on March 01, 2015, 05:55:57 PM
So per above, I have:

1. (GL) Marietta (.893/.519/4-3)
2. (MA) Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
3. (C) UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
4. (C) Washington U. (.800/.565/4-2)
5. (GL) Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
6. (NE) Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
7. (NE) Amherst (.741/.579/6-3)
8. (NE) Bates (.760/.609/4-5)
9. (AT) William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
10. (GL) Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
11. (C) Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
12. (C) Elmhurst (.731/.551/4-4)
13. (S) Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
14. GL John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
15. (W) St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)
16. (MA) Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)[/b]
17. (NE) Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
18. (NE) - WPI (.808/.515/2-3)
19. (W) - Bethel (.679/.564/4-3)

I'm not sure you have the regional rankings right. I don't think Trinity will remain above Amherst. I have all those teams in, besides WPI and Catholic, so overall, there's not much to quibble with (although I don't think WPI will get to the table before Bowdoin, so that could be problematic).

Greek Tragedy · March 01, 2015, 05:59:49 PM

A few years ago (ok, awhile ago), I think La Crosse had beaten Oshkosh 3 times but Oshkosh was ranked ahead of them. The committee couldn't decide which one to take, so neither went.

KnightSlappy · March 01, 2015, 06:05:56 PM

Numbers on my site now fully updated. Great season everybody.

TheOsprey · March 01, 2015, 06:07:27 PM

I would be surprised if Stockton wasn't hosting the opening round. They have been ranked as the top Atlantic team every week and they did win both the regular season and conference tournament. They have strong stats in each criteria and a good recent history (sweet 16). Stockton can host many teams from several regions from their geographical home, IMO!!

Go Ospreys!!