Pool C

[fantastic50]

This was really well done, fantastic50.

Thank you. I always appreciate your breakdowns of the national picture, as well.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The entire regular season has basically come down to this week: Championship Week.

Almost all conferences will determine their automatic bids to the NCAA tournament via their own tournaments. Those that haven't started already, will begin soon. And in a matter of a week, 87 teams on the men's and women's sides will know they are headed to the NCAA tournament.

Sunday night on Hoopsville, Dave McHugh talks to some of the teams who hope home court will be their ticket to the NCAA post-season play. Each of the teams featured tonight won their regular season conference titles and need to win their conference tournaments to get into the NCAA tournament.

Hoopsville hits the air at 7pm ET. Tune in here: http://www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2015-16/feb21

Guests include (in order of appearance):
- Stacey Brunner-Jones, Concordia-Wisconsin women's coach
- Mike Ricks, Birmingham-Southern women's coach
- Bernard Tomlin, SUNY Old Westbury men's coach
- Mike McDevitt, St. Joseph's (Maine) women's coach
- Ryan Scott, Mid-Atlantic Region Report

You can also tune into the podcast(s) after the show has aired:
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville
iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/hoopsville/id1059517087

Don't forget you can always interact with us:
Website: www.d3hoopsville.com
Twitter: @d3hoopsville or #Hoopsville
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Email: hoopsville@d3hoops.com
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And a reminder the Hoopsville Fundraising Project is halfway to the deadline but we are not that close to the goal. Please consider helping us cover Division III basketball the way it deserves to be covered: http://igg.me/at/hoopsville-fundraiser/x/6029509.

Thanks!

[Greek Tragedy]

Updated through the weekend scores. Lots of carnage


Teams in BOLD are conferences winners/leaders. An * means there's a tie. Pool A (Automatic qualifiers) will be Green once their conference tournaments are complete. Teams losing will be RED and will be considered Pool C.

ATL
WK2	WK1	Team	Record	Schedule
#1	#4	New Jersey City (NJAC)	17-7 17-7	WON at Rutgers-Camden 76-53
#2	#1	Stockton (NJAC)	18-5 18-6	WON at Montclair State 83-80
#3	#5	DeSales (MACF)	17-5 17-6	WON at Manhattanville 77-75; WON at Eastern 96-86
#4	#2	Staten Island (CUNYAC)	18-5 18-6	LOST at Lehman 99-88
#5	#3	Brooklyn (CUNYAC)	18-6 18-6	WON at Baruch 73-58; WON vs York (NY) 72-62 in QFs
#6	#6	Rutgers-Newark (NJAC)	18-6 18-6	WON at Ramapo 95-94; WON vs William Paterson 78-52 in QFs
#7	#7	Delaware Valley (MACF)	15-6 17-6	LOST at King's 74-67; WON vs FDU-Florham 79-62
CENT
WK2	WK1	Team	Record	Schedule
#1	#1	Benedictine (NACC)	24-0 24-0	WON at Lakeland 100-76
#2	#2	Augustana (CCIW)	23-1 23-1	WON at Wheaton (IL) 103-101
#3	#3	St.Norbert (MWC)	20-2 20-2	WON at Cornell 72-62
#4	#4	North Central (IL) (CCIW)	17-6 18-6	WON at North Park 84-74
#5	#5	Elmhurst (CCIW)	20-4 20-4	LOST at Illinois Wesleyan 77-67
#6	#7	Chicago (UAA)	15-6 16-6	LOSTat NYU 72-59; WON at Brandeis 62-52
#7	#6	Aurora (NACC)	17-5 18-5	WON vs Rockford 112-92; WON at Edgewood 96-82
#8	#8	Carroll (MWC)	17-4 17-4	WON at Lawrence 70-51; WON at Lake Forest 61-48
EAST
WK2	WK1	Team	Record	Schedule
#1	#1	Plattsburgh St. (SUNYAC)	18-4 18-4	WON vs SUNY Potsdam 93-62; WON at Brockport 76-72; WON at SUNY Geneseo 76-72
#2	#2	*Rochester (UAA)	16-5 16-6	WON at CWR 99-92; LOST at Carnegie Mellon 102-97
#3	#3	SUNY Geneseo (SUNYAC)	16-5 16-6	LOST at Oswego St. 75-67; WON vs SUNY Potsdam 85-77; LOST to Plattsburgh St. 76-72
#4		Brockport (SUNYAC)	15-7 15-7	LOST at Cortland 73-72; LOST vs Plattsburgh St. 76-72; WON vs SUNY Potsdam 92-76
#5	#4	Oswego St. (SUNYAC)	17-6 17-6	WON vs SUNY Geneseo 75-67; LOST at Cortland 72-61
#6		NYU (UAA)	18-4 18-4	WON vs Chicago 72-59; LOST vs Washington U. 71-70
		DROPPING OUT
	#5	SUNY Oneonta (SUNYAC)	13-7, 13-7
	#6	St. John Fisher (E8)	15-5, 15-5
GL
WK2	WK1	Team	Record	Schedule
#1	#2	Marietta (OAC)	21-2 21-2	WON at Otterbein 80-56; WON at Ohio Northern 97-73
#2	#1	John Carroll (OAC)	21-2 21-2	LOST at Mount Union 100-94; WON vs Muskingum 99-76
#3	#3	*Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC)	20-3 20-3	WON at Oberlin 93-75; WON vs DePauw 81-57
#4	#5	Alma (MIAA)	18-5 18-5	LOST at Albion 71-66;    WON at Olivet 97-85
#5	#4	Hope (MIAA)	19-1 21-2	WON at Kalamazoo 90-79; WON at Calvin 65-61
#6	#6	*Wooster (NCAC)	16-6 17-6	WON at Allegheny 92-74; WON vs Oberlin 97-56
#7	#8	Hiram (NCAC)	17-5 17-6	LOST at Denison 86-77; WON vs Wittenberg 64-60
#8	#7	Mount Union (OAC)	14-7 15-7	LOST at Muskingum 83-80; WON vs John Carroll 100-94; WON vs Willingham 105-86
#9		St. Vincent (PAC)	17-6 17-6	WON at Theil 82-76; WON at Thomas More 63-62
		DROPPING OUT
	#9	Trine (MIAA)	14-6, 15-6
MA
WK2	WK1	Team	Record	Schedule
#1	#1	Christopher Newport(CAC)	22-1 22-1	WON vs St. Mary's (Md) 69-53; WON vs Marymount 89-59
#2	#2	*Susquehanna (LAND)	17-3 19-3	WON at Goucher 67-53; WON vs Elizabethtown 86-70; WON at Elizabethtown 83-69
#3	#3	Salisbury (CAC)	18-5 18-5	WON at Marymount 73-59; WON vs Frostburg St. 84-61
#4	#4	*Catholic (LAND)	17-5 17-5	WON vs Juniata 83-60; WON vs Scranton 79-74; WON vs Merchant Marine 80-61
#5	#6	Scranton (LAND)	17-5 18-5	WON at Cabrini 94-73; LOST at Catholic 79-74
#6	#5	Franklin and Marshall (CC)	18-4 18-4	WON at Ursinus 84-61; WON vs Gettysburg 71-60; LOST vs Dickinson 88-86
NE
WK2	WK1	Team	Record	Schedule
#1	#1	Amherst (NECAC)	20-4 20-4	WON vs Bowdoin 83-76 in QFs
#2	#2	Trinity (Conn.) (NESCAC)	17-6 18-6	WON vs Colby 71-60 in QFs
#3	#3	Tufts (NESCAC)	19-5 19-5	WON vs Williams 77-71 in QFs
#4	#4	Babson (NEWMAC)	17-5 17-5	WON at Coast Guard 80-73; WON at MIT 94-80
#5	#6	WPI (NEWMAC)	18-5 18-5	WON at Wheaton (Mass.) 70-55; WON at Clark 88-60
#6	#7	Eastern Connecticut (LEC)	16-7 16-7	LOST at Keene St. 75-49; WON at Mass-Boston 69-64
#7	#5	Wesleyan (NESCAC)	18-6 18-6	LOST at Middlebury 86-74 in QFs
#8	#9	Johnson & Wales (GNAC)	20-2 21-2	WON at Norwich 74-41; WON vs Mount Ida 89-69
#9	#8	MIT (NEWMAC)	18-5 18-5	WON at Emerson 67-49; LOST vs Babson 94-80
#10	#10	Southern Vermont (NECC)	20-3 20-3	WON vs Elms 93-84; WON vs Daniel Wesbster 110-57
#11	#11	Nichols (CCC)	20-3 20-3	WON at Gordon 95-91; WON vs Eastern Nazarene 87-70
SOUTH
WK2	WK1	Team	Record	Schedule
#1	#2	Texas Lutheran (SCAC)	19-5 19-5	LOST at Southwestern 83-81
#2	#3	*Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC)	17-6 17-6	LOST vs Guilford 71-60; LOST at Lynchburg 80-75
#3	#1	*Emory (UAA)	15-6 16-6	WON at Carnegie Mellon 83-68; LOST at CWR 88-78
#4	#4	Lynchburg (ODAC)	17-6 17-6	WON vs Roanoke 160-156; WON vs Virginia Wesleyan 80-75
#5	#5	LaGrange (USAC)	13-6 16-7	WON at Huntingdon 97-87; WON at Piedmont 96-90
#6	#6	East Texas Baptist (ASC)	17-5 19-5	WON vs Belhaven 78-66
#7	#7	Roanoke (ODAC)	18-4 19-4	LOST at Lynchburg 160-156; LOST at Randolph-Macon 89-73
#8	#8	N.C. Wesleyan (USAC)	13-4 17-6	WON at Averett 85-82; WON at Methodist 91-84
WEST
WK2	WK1	Team	Record	Schedule
#1	#1	St. Thomas (MIAC)	21-2 21-2	WON at St. Olaf 78-72; WON vs St. Mary's (Minn.) 77-48
#2	#2	Whitworth (NWC)	21-1 22-1	WON at Puget Sound 67-65; WON at Pacific Lutheran 73-71
#3	#3	Whitman (NWC)	19-3 20-3	WON at Pacific Lutheran 82-72; WON at Puget Sound 83-57
#4	#6	St. John's (MIAC)	16-6 17-6	LOST at Gustavus Adolphus 63-62; WON at Augsburg 77-66
#5		St.Olaf (MIAC)	16-8 16-8	LOST to St. Thomas 78-72
#6	#4	Concordia-Moorhead (MIAC)	15-8 15-9	WON vs Macalester 81-58
#7		Augsburg (MIAC)	15-8 15-8	LOST at Macalester 71-60; LOST vs St. John's 77-66
		DROPPING OUT
	#5	Bethel (MIAC)	14-6, 14-6
	#7	Dubuque (IIAC)	12-6, 15-6

[Greek Tragedy]

Congrats to Wesleyan, as they are our first entrant into the Pool C wasteland. Wesleyan lost at Middlebury in the NESCAC quarterfinals.

[Greek Tragedy]

Assuming all conference winners/leaders get the Pool A spot...which never happens.

Pool C outlook (not a Pool C expert, never played one on TV)

Atlantic
#2 Stockton should be safe.
#5 Brooklyn may jump #4 Staten Island after they lost to Lehman. They play each other in the CUNYAC semis. The winner of Tuesday's semifinal will probably be next at the table after Stockton. Very slim chance either gets a bid if Lehman takes the AQ.

Central
#4 North Central should be in, even if they lose to #5 Elmhurst in the CCIW semis.
#5 Elmhurst really hurt their chances of getting a Pool C bid after losing at IWU. I think they'll need a semifinal win to secure a Pool C spot.
#6 Chicago lost, but it was at least against a ranked opponent, NYU. They are on the fence and need a win against Washington U. in the UAA season finale.
#7 Aurora needs to get to the NACC final to get in.

East
Whether it's Emory (#3 South) or Rochester, both are in from the UAA. After that, it's a mess. #3 Geneseo and #4 Brockport both lost twice. #5 Oswego and #6 NYU both lost as well.

Great Lakes
#2 John Carroll is in even after losing.
#3 Ohio Wesleyan/#6 Wooster (they would feel better getting to the NCAC final)
#4 Alma's loss at Albion could drop them behind #5 Hope and #6 Wooster.

Mid-Atlantic
#2 Susquehanna is in and Landmark co-leader, #4 Catholic, is making a strong case with 3 wins last week, including a win over regionally ranked opponent Scranton.
#3 Salisbury should also be in.

Northeast
#1 Amherst, #3 Tufts and #5 WPI are in.

South
As previously stated #3 Emory/#2 East Rochester are in. Rochester hosts Emory on the last day.
#2 Virginia Wesleyan lost twice and will probably be jumped by ODAC co-leader #4 Lynchburg. So we'll put Lynchburg in.

West
#3 Whitman is in.

So maybe?
Stockton
Brooklyn /Staten Island
North Central
Elmhurst
Chicago
Aurora
Emory/Rochester
John Carroll
Ohio Wesleyan /Wooster
Susquehanna/Catholic
Salisbury
Amherst
Tufts
WPI
Lynchburg/Virginia Wesleyan
Whitman

And I still have to dig up 3 more...

Maybe Carroll if they get to the MWC Final and lose to St. Norbert for a 3rd time?
Brockport St.? They'll have 10 losses. Maybe Geneseo? Obviously not both.
Possibly a MIAC team. Whitman will be off the board fairly quick.

[fantastic50]

Best guesses at regional rankings heading into conference tournament week...

All underlying data is coming from Matt Snyder.
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Atlantic
1) New Jersey City (NJAC) 0.720/0.522/4-2, LW#1
2) Stockton (NJAC) 0.792/0.533/2-3, LW#2
3) DeSales (MACF) 0.792/0.523/1-2, LW#3
4) Brooklyn (CUNYAC) 0.769/0.497/2-1, LW#5
5) Rutgers-Newark (NJAC) 0.769/0.504/0-4, LW#6
6) Staten Island (CUNYAC) 0.750/0.499/2-2, LW#4
7) Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC) 0.792/0.479/0-1, new
Dropping out: Delaware Valley (MACF) 0.696/0.503/1-2, LW#7

Central
1) Benedictine (NATHC) 1.000/0.523/4-0, LW#1
2) Augustana (CCIW) 0.960/0.529/3-1, LW#2
3) St. Norbert (MWC) 0.913/0.527/2-1, LW#3
4) North Central (Ill.) (CCIW) 0.750/0.594/3-6, LW#4
5) Elmhurst (CCIW) 0.800/0.519/2-4, LW#5
6) Chicago (UAA) 0.696/0.559/2-6, LW#6
7) Carroll (MWC) 0.826/0.509/0-2, LW#8
8) Aurora (NATHC) 0.792/0.508/1-2, LW#7

East
1) Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) 0.840/0.545/5-2, LW#1
2) Rochester (UAA) 0.739/0.561/4-3, LW#2
3) Oswego State (SUNYAC) 0.720/0.533/4-3, LW#5
4) SUNY Geneseo (SUNYAC) 0.708/0.536/2-4, LW#3
5) Brockport (SUNYAC) 0.640/0.559/3-5, LW#4
6) New York University (UAA) 0.792/0.513/3-3, LW#6

Great Lakes
1) Marietta (OAC) 0.920/0.545/5-2, LW#1
2) Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) 0.880/0.521/3-2, LW#3
3) Hope (MIAA) 0.955/0.500/1-1, LW#5
4) John Carroll (OAC) 0.880/0.521/3-2, LW#2
5) Alma (MIAA) 0.760/0.551/3-4, LW#4
6) Wooster (NCAC) 0.750/0.555/2-4, LW#6
7) Mount Union (OAC) 0.667/0.531/2-4, LW#8
8) Hiram (NCAC) 0.750/0.499/2-2, LW#7
9) St. Vincent (PrAC) 0.760/0.472/1-1, LW#9

Mid-Atlantic
1) Christopher Newport (CAC) 0.960/0.531/4-1, LW#1
2) Susquehanna (LAND) 0.870/0.536/3-2, LW#2
3) Salisbury (CAC) 0.800/0.547/4-2, LW#3
4) Catholic (LAND) 0.800/0.546/4-2, LW#4
5) Scranton (LAND) 0.750/0.542/2-3, LW#5
6) Franklin and Marshall (CC) 0.800/0.509/1-0, LW#6

Northeast
1) Amherst (NESCAC) 0.840/0.557/4-2, LW#1
2) Trinity (Conn.) (NESCAC) 0.750/0.565/3-4, LW#2
3) Tufts (NESCAC) 0.800/0.554/3-4, LW#3
4) Babson (NEWMAC) 0.792/0.538/3-3, LW#4
5) WPI (NEWMAC) 0.800/0.514/5-2, LW#5
6) Johnson and Wales (GNAC) 0.917/0.472/1-0, LW#8
7) Eastern Connecticut (LEC) 0.680/0.553/1-4, LW#6
8) Wesleyan (NESCAC) 0.720/0.511/2-2, LW#7
9) Southern Vermont (NECC) 0.880/0.469/0-2, LW#10
10) Nichols (CCC) 0.880/0.469/0-0, LW#11
11) MIT (NEWMAC) 0.760/0.497/2-3, LW#9

South
1) Emory (UAA) 0.696/0.584/4-4, LW#3
2) Texas Lutheran (SCAC) 0.760/0.531/3-0, LW#1
3) Lynchburg (ODAC) 0.760/0.535/3-2, LW#4
4) Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC) 0.680/0.564/4-4, LW#2
5) LaGrange (USAC) 0.714/0.537/2-2, LW#5
6) East Texas Baptist (ASC) 0.773/0.512/0-2, LW#6
7) North Carolina Wesleyan (USAC) 0.789/0.521/1-1, LW#8
8) Roanoke (ODAC) 0.750/0.500/1-2, LW#7

West
1) St. Thomas (MIAC) 0.920/0.555/9-1, LW#1
2) Whitworth (NWC) 0.958/0.506/1-1, LW#2
3) Whitman (NWC) 0.875/0.506/1-2, LW#3
4) St. Johns (MIAC) 0.708/0.525/5-3, LW#4
5) St. Olaf (MIAC) 0.640/0.539/3-5, LW#5
6) Concordia-Moorhead (MIAC) 0.667/0.526/4-4, LW#6
7) Bethel (MIAC) 0.680/0.528/3-7, new
Dropping out: Augsburg (MIAC) 0.600/0.508/1-7, LW#7

[fantastic50]

Best guesses on Pool C status as of today.
(Teams listed as Pool A are top seeds in conference tournaments, but none have yet clinched a Pool A berth.)

Again, data is from D3 numbers guru Matt Snyder.
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Locks (19)
St. Thomas (MIAC, Pool A) 0.920/0.555/9-1, proj WE#1
Benedictine (NACC, Pool A) 1.000/0.523/4-0, proj CE#1
Marietta (OAC, Pool A) 0.920/0.545/5-2, proj GL#1
Christopher Newport (CAC, Pool A) 0.960/0.531/4-1, proj MA#1
Augustana (CCIW, Pool A) 0.960/0.529/3-1, proj CE#2
North Central (Ill.) (CCIW, Pool C) 0.750/0.594/3-6, proj CE#4
Amherst (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.840/0.557/4-2, proj NE#1
St. Norbert (MWC, Pool A) 0.913/0.527/2-1, proj CE#3
Susquehanna (LAND, Pool C) 0.870/0.536/3-2, proj MA#2
Whitworth (NWC, Pool A) 0.958/0.506/1-1, proj WE#2
Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC, Pool A) 0.840/0.545/5-2, proj EA#1
Tufts (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.554/3-4, proj NE#3
Hope (MIAA, Pool A) 0.955/0.500/1-1, proj GL#3
Emory (UAA, Pool A) 0.696/0.584/4-4, proj SO#1
Trinity (Conn.) (NESCAC, Pool A) 0.750/0.565/3-4, proj NE#2
Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC, Pool A) 0.880/0.521/3-2, proj GL#2
John Carroll (OAC, Pool C) 0.880/0.521/3-2, proj GL#4
Salisbury (CAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.547/4-2, proj MA#3
Catholic (LAND, Pool A) 0.800/0.546/4-2, proj MA#4

Likely in (5)
Rochester (UAA, Pool C) 0.739/0.561/4-3, proj EA#2
Alma (MIAA, Pool C) 0.760/0.551/3-4, proj GL#5
Wooster (NCAC, Pool C) 0.750/0.555/2-4, proj GL#6
Babson (NEWMAC, Pool A) 0.792/0.538/3-3, proj NE#4
Whitman (NWC, Pool C) 0.875/0.506/1-2, proj WE#3

Bubble teams (21)
Stockton (NJAC, Pool C) 0.792/0.533/2-3, proj AT#2
Scranton (LAND, Pool C) 0.750/0.542/2-3, proj MA#5
Chicago (UAA, Pool C) 0.696/0.559/2-6, proj CE#6
Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.564/4-4, proj SO#4
Lynchburg (ODAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.535/3-2, proj SO#3
DeSales (MACF, Pool A) 0.792/0.523/1-2, proj AT#3
Elmhurst (CCIW, Pool C) 0.800/0.519/2-4, proj CE#5
Carroll (MWC, Pool C) 0.826/0.509/0-2, proj CE#7
Texas Lutheran (SCAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.531/3-0, proj SO#2
St. John Fisher (E8, Pool A) 0.800/0.516/1-1, proj EA#
WPI (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.514/5-2, proj NE#5
Eastern Connecticut (LEC, Pool A) 0.680/0.553/1-4, proj NE#7
Johnson and Wales (GNAC, Pool A) 0.917/0.472/1-0, proj NE#6
New York University (UAA, Pool C) 0.792/0.513/3-3, proj EA#6
Franklin and Marshall (CC, Pool A) 0.800/0.509/1-0, proj MA#6
LaGrange (USAC, Pool C) 0.714/0.537/2-2, proj SO#5
Oswego State (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.720/0.533/4-3, proj EA#3
Aurora (NACC, Pool C) 0.792/0.508/1-2, proj CE#8
Brockport (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.640/0.559/3-5, proj EA#5
SUNY Geneseo (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.708/0.536/2-4, proj EA#4
New Jersey City (NJAC, Pool A) 0.720/0.522/4-2, proj AT#1

Longshots (14)
North Carolina Wesleyan (USAC, Pool A) 0.789/0.521/1-1, proj SO#7
East Texas Baptist (ASC, Pool A) 0.773/0.512/0-2, proj SO#6
St. Johns (MIAC, Pool C) 0.708/0.525/5-3, proj WE#4
Rutgers-Newark (NJAC, Pool C) 0.769/0.504/0-4, proj AT#5
Bethel (MIAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.528/3-7, proj WE#7
Brooklyn (CUNYAC, Pool C) 0.769/0.497/2-1, proj AT#4
Mount Union (OAC, Pool C) 0.667/0.531/2-4, proj GL#7
St. Olaf (MIAC, Pool C) 0.640/0.539/3-5, proj WE#5
Wesleyan (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.720/0.511/2-2, proj NE#8
MIT (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.497/2-3, proj NE#11
Roanoke (ODAC, Pool C) 0.750/0.500/1-2, proj SO#8
Hiram (NCAC, Pool C) 0.750/0.499/2-2, proj GL#8
Staten Island (CUNYAC, Pool C) 0.750/0.499/2-2, proj AT#6
Concordia-Moorhead (MIAC, Pool C) 0.667/0.526/4-4, proj WE#6

[fantastic50]

"Bubble-burster" info

My guesses, based on data from Matt Snyder
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/


Potential multi-bid leagues (25, with 59 contending teams)

ASC: East Texas Baptist (longshot)

CAC: Christopher Newport (lock), Salisbury (lock)

CC: Franklin & Marshall (bubble)

CCIW: Augustana (lock), North Central (lock), Elmhurst (bubble)

CUNYAC: Brooklyn (longshot), Staten Island (longshot)

E8: St John Fisher (bubble)

GNAC: Johnson & Wales (bubble)

LAND: Catholic (lock), Susquehanna (lock), Scranton (bubble)

LEC: Eastern Connecticut (bubble)

MACF: DeSales (bubble)

MIAA: Hope (lock), Alma (likely)

MIAC: St Thomas (lock), St. John's (longshot), St. Olaf (longshot), Concordia-Moorhead (longshot), Bethel (longshot)

MWC: St. Norbert (lock), Carroll (bubble)

NACC: Benedictine (lock), Aurora (bubble)

NCAC: Ohio Wesleyan (lock), Wooster (likely), Hiram (longshot)

NESCAC: Trinity (lock), Amherst (lock), Tufts (lock), Wesleyan (longshot)

NEWMAC: Babson (likely), WPI (bubble), MIT (longshot)

NJAC: New Jersey City (bubble), Stockton (bubble), Rutgers-Newark (longshot)

NWC: Whitworth (lock), Whitman (likely)

OAC: Marietta (lock), John Carroll (lock), Mt. Union (longshot)

ODAC: Lynchburg (bubble), Virginia Wesleyan (bubble), Roanoke (longshot)

SCAC: Texas Lutheran (bubble)

SUNYAC: Plattsburgh State (lock), Oswego State (bubble), SUNY Geneseo (bubble), Brockport (bubble)

UAA: Emory (lock), Rochester (likely), Chicago (bubble), NYU (bubble)
(Note: Emory and Rochester play for the Pool A berth on Saturday, in the regular-season finale.)

USAC: LaGrange (bubble), NC Wesleyan (longshot)


Unexpected winners of the above leagues will burst bubbles for other Pool C teams


Breakdown of the 62 berths
- 25 Pool A berths will go to (tournament, except UAA) champs of the above leagues
- 19 Pool C berths (presumably) will go to other teams from the above leagues
- 18 Pool A berths will go to the winners of other (clearly one-bid) leagues, listed below


Top seeds in one-bid leagues
AMCC: Hilbert 0.833/0.429/0-0
CCC: Nichols 0.880/0.469/0-0
CSAC: Gwynedd Mercy 0.792/0.479/0-1
HCAC: Defiance 0.600/0.456/0-0
IIAC: Dubuque 0.682/0.495/0-1
LL: Skidmore 0.667/0.511/2-0
MACC: Alvernia 0.583/0.532/1-2
MASCAC: Fitchburg State 0.667/0.480/1-1
NAC: Green Mountain 0.833/0.445/0-0
NEAC: Lancaster Bible 1.000/0.421/1-0
NECC: Southern Vermont 0.880/0.469/0-2
PrAC: St. Vincent 0.760/0.472/1-1
SAA: Birmingham-Southern 0.739/0.498/0-3
SCIAC: Chapman 0.824/0.476/0-0
SKY: SUNY-Old Westbury 0.680/0.475/0-1
SLIAC: MacMurray 0.591/0.455/0-1
UMAC: St. Scholastica 0.739/0.442/0-1
WIAC: UW-La Crosse 0.625/0.546/0-2

[Greek Tragedy]

Nice work, Fantastic50 +1k

I may as well stop posting!

[warriorcat]

Thanks for putting all of this together, Fantastic 50

Let the games begin

[gordonmann]

Really nice work, Fantastic50.

One correction -- You have the CUNYAC listed twice.  If you drop them from the multi-bid or one-bid leagues, that'll get you to 43 AQs.

I posted our conference tournament tracker earlier today:
http://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2015-16/conference-tournaments/index

[fantastic50]

One correction -- You have the CUNYAC listed twice.  If you drop them from the multi-bid or one-bid leagues, that'll get you to 43 AQs.

Thanks, fixed now ... I removed the CUNYAC from the definite one-bid leagues list.

[fantastic50]

Bubble watch games - Tuesday, February 23
(Status in parenthesis is for a Pool C berth; any team still playing can get in by winning a conference tournament)

CUNYAC semis: #3 Brooklyn (longshot) vs #2 Staten Island (longshot)

GNAC quarters: #8 St Joseph, Maine (out) at #1 Johnson & Wales (bubble)

LEC quarters: #8 Mass-Boston (out) at #1 Eastern Connecticut (bubble)

NCAC quarters: #8 Wabash (out) at #1 Ohio Wesleyan (lock)
NCAC quarters: #7 Oberlin (out) at #2 Wooster (likely)
NCAC quarters: #6 Kenyon (out) at #3 Hiram (unlikely)

OAC quarters: #8 Wilmington (out) at #1 Marietta (lock)
OAC quarters: #7 Capital (out) at #2 John Carroll (lock)
OAC quarters: #6 Heidelberg (out) at #3 Mount Union (longshot)

SUNYAC quarters: #5 SUNY Geneseo (bubble) at #4 Oswego State (bubble)
SUNYAC quarters: #6 Buffalo St (out) at #3 Brockport (bubble)


Bubble watch games - Wednesday, February 24

Landmark semis: #4 Juniata (out) at #1 Catholic (lock)
Landmark semis: #3 Scranton (bubble) at #2 Susquehanna (lock)

MAFC semis: #4 Wilkes (out) at #1 DeSales (bubble)

MIAC quarters: #5 Bethel (longshot) at #4 Concordia-Moorhead (longshot)

NJAC semis: #4 TCNJ (out) at #1 New Jersey City (bubble)
NJAC semis: #3 Rutgers-Newark (longshot) at #2 Stockton (bubble)

[7express]

Assuming all conference winners/leaders get the Pool A spot...which never happens.

Pool C outlook (not a Pool C expert, never played one on TV)

But you did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night Greek 

[7express]

"Bubble-burster" info

My guesses, based on data from Matt Snyder
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/


Potential multi-bid leagues (25, with 59 contending teams)

ASC: East Texas Baptist (longshot)

CAC: Christopher Newport (lock), Salisbury (lock)

CC: Franklin & Marshall (bubble)

CCIW: Augustana (lock), North Central (lock), Elmhurst (bubble)

CUNYAC: Brooklyn (longshot), Staten Island (longshot)

E8: St John Fisher (bubble)

GNAC: Johnson & Wales (bubble)

LAND: Catholic (lock), Susquehanna (lock), Scranton (bubble)

LEC: Eastern Connecticut (bubble)

MACF: DeSales (bubble)

MIAA: Hope (lock), Alma (likely)

MIAC: St Thomas (lock), St. John's (longshot), St. Olaf (longshot), Concordia-Moorhead (longshot), Bethel (longshot)

MWC: St. Norbert (lock), Carroll (bubble)

NACC: Benedictine (lock), Aurora (bubble)

NCAC: Ohio Wesleyan (lock), Wooster (likely), Hiram (longshot)

NESCAC: Trinity (lock), Amherst (lock), Tufts (lock), Wesleyan (longshot)

NEWMAC: Babson (likely), WPI (bubble), MIT (longshot)

NJAC: New Jersey City (bubble), Stockton (bubble), Rutgers-Newark (longshot)

NWC: Whitworth (lock), Whitman (likely)

OAC: Marietta (lock), John Carroll (lock), Mt. Union (longshot)

ODAC: Lynchburg (bubble), Virginia Wesleyan (bubble), Roanoke (longshot)

SCAC: Texas Lutheran (bubble)

SUNYAC: Plattsburgh State (lock), Oswego State (bubble), SUNY Geneseo (bubble), Brockport (bubble)

UAA: Emory (lock), Rochester (likely), Chicago (bubble), NYU (bubble)
(Note: Emory and Rochester play for the Pool A berth on Saturday, in the regular-season finale.)

USAC: LaGrange (bubble), NC Wesleyan (longshot)


Unexpected winners of the above leagues will burst bubbles for other Pool C teams


Breakdown of the 62 berths
- 25 Pool A berths will go to (tournament, except UAA) champs of the above leagues
- 19 Pool C berths (presumably) will go to other teams from the above leagues
- 18 Pool A berths will go to the winners of other (clearly one-bid) leagues, listed below


Top seeds in one-bid leagues
AMCC: Hilbert 0.833/0.429/0-0
CCC: Nichols 0.880/0.469/0-0
CSAC: Gwynedd Mercy 0.792/0.479/0-1
HCAC: Defiance 0.600/0.456/0-0
IIAC: Dubuque 0.682/0.495/0-1
LL: Skidmore 0.667/0.511/2-0
MACC: Alvernia 0.583/0.532/1-2
MASCAC: Fitchburg State 0.667/0.480/1-1
NAC: Green Mountain 0.833/0.445/0-0
NEAC: Lancaster Bible 1.000/0.421/1-0
NECC: Southern Vermont 0.880/0.469/0-2
PrAC: St. Vincent 0.760/0.472/1-1
SAA: Birmingham-Southern 0.739/0.498/0-3
SCIAC: Chapman 0.824/0.476/0-0
SKY: SUNY-Old Westbury 0.680/0.475/0-1
SLIAC: MacMurray 0.591/0.455/0-1
UMAC: St. Scholastica 0.739/0.442/0-1
WIAC: UW-La Crosse 0.625/0.546/0-2

The LEC is a 1 bid league.  Eastern Connecticut isn't getting into the tournament without winning the LEC tournament and nobody else in the conference is even a small blip on the radar.