Pool C

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

SMH Never thought to look through that damn manual. Looked through it a few weeks ago for something else.

Thanks! +k

I looked through the whole thing and still missed it - so at least you didn't waste all that time.

[Greek Tragedy]

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2016/02/24/third-ncaa-regional-ranking/   

New rankings are out.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Better source: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2016/02/24/third-ncaa-regional-ranking/ LOL

[Greek Tragedy]

It wasn't there yet...and last week I did change the link once it was up on your blog.   

[fantastic50]

SMH Never thought to look through that damn manual. Looked through it a few weeks ago for something else.

Thanks! +k

I looked through the whole thing and still missed it - so at least you didn't waste all that time.

Not being sure of which document it was in, I searched a couple of them for "even year" and it popped up.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

It wasn't there yet...and last week I did change the link once it was up on your blog.   

If you wait pretty much a minute or two, we have it.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Brooklyn was already up to #4 before the win this week.  That's interesting, but it'll be moot if they win the AQ anyway.

[Greek Tragedy]

Brooklyn was already up to #4 before the win this week.  That's interesting, but it'll be moot if they win the AQ anyway.

They also get a boost with Lehman jumping into the rankings, adding two more vRRO.Of course, Lehman crashed and burned in the semis...in addition to this week's win over Staten Island.

[Greek Tragedy]

I'll be updating results throughout the week.

Teams in BOLD are conferences winners/leaders. An * means there's a tie. Pool A (Automatic qualifiers) will be BLUE once their conference tournaments are complete. Teams losing will be RED and will be considered Pool C.

ATL
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#4	New Jersey City (NJAC)	1-0	LOST to TCNJ 92-82 in semis
#2	#2	#1	Stockton (NJAC)	1-0	WON vs Rutgers-Newark 95-75 in semis; vs TCNJ Final
#3	#3	#5	DeSales (MACF)	2-0	LOST to Wilkes 72-62 in semis
#4	#5	#3	Brooklyn (CUNYAC)	2-0	WON vs Staten Island 78-69 in semis; vs Baruch in Final 2/26
#5			Lehman (CUNYAC)	1-0	LOST to Baruch 80-64 in semis
#6	#4	#2	Staten Island (CUNYAC)	0-1	LOST to Brooklyn 78-69 in semis
#7	#6	#6	Rutgers-Newark (NJAC)	2-0	WON vs William Paterson 78-52 in QFs; LOST at Stockton 95-75 in semis
			DROPPING OUT
	#7	#7	Delaware Valley (MACF)
CENT
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	Benedictine (NACC)	1-0	vs TBD 2/26
#2	#2	#2	Augustana (CCIW)	1-0	vs Illinois Wesleyan in semis 2/26
#3	#3	#3	St.Norbert (MWC)	1-0	vs Lake Forest in semis 2/26
#4	#4	#4	North Central (IL) (CCIW)	1-0	vs Elmhurst in semis 2/26
#5	#5	#5	Elmhurst (CCIW)	0-1	vs North Central in semis 2/26
#6	#6	#7	Chicago (UAA)	1-1	vs Washington U. 2/27
#7	#7	#6	Aurora (NACC)	2-0	vs TBD in semis 2/26
#8	#8	#8	Carroll (MWC)	2-0	vs Ripon in semis 2/26
EAST
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team		Schedule
#1	#1	#1	Plattsburgh St. (SUNYAC)	3-0	vs Oswego St in semis 2/26
#2	#2	#2	*Rochester (UAA)	1-1	vs Emory 2/27
#3	#6		NYU (UAA)	1-1	at Brandeis 2/27
#4		#6	St. John Fisher (E8)	2-0	vs Stevens in semis 2/26
#5	#5	#4	Oswego St. (SUNYAC)	1-1	WON vs SUNY Geneseo 75-59 in QFs; vs Plattsburgh St. in semis 2/26
#6	#3	#3	SUNY Geneseo (SUNYAC)	1-2	LOST to Oswego St. 75-59 in QFs
			DROPPING OUT
		#5	SUNY Oneonta (SUNYAC)
	#4		Brockport (SUNYAC)
GL
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#2	Marietta (OAC)	2-0	WON vs Wilmington 93-78; vs Baldwin Wallace in semis 2/25
#2	#3	#3	Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC)	2-0	WON vs Wabash 100-80; vs   Denison in semis 2/26
#3	#2	#1	John Carroll (OAC)	1-1	WON vs Capital 83-70; vs Mount Union in semis 2/26
#4	#5	#4	Hope (MIAA)	2-0	vs Trine in semis 2/26
#5	#4	#5	Alma (MIAA)	1-1	vs Albion in semis 2/26
#6	#6	#6	Wooster (NCAC)	2-0	WON vs Oberlin 78-63; vs Hiram in semis 2/26
#7	#8	#7	Mount Union (OAC)	2-1	WON vs Heidelberg 102-96; at John Carroll in semis 2/26
#8	#7	#8	Hiram (NCAC)	1-1	WON vs Kenyon 95-87; at Wooster in semis 2/26
#9	#9		St. Vincent (PAC)	2-0	WON vs Chatham 80-65; vs Westminster in semis 2/25
			DROPPING OUT
		#9	Trine (MIAA)
MA
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	Christopher Newport(CAC)	2-0	vs St. Mary's in semis 2/25
#2	#2	#2	*Susquehanna (LAND)	3-0	WON vs Scranton 77-72 in semis; vs Catholic in Final 2/27
#3	#3	#3	Salisbury (CAC)	2-0	vs Mary Washington in semis 2/25
#4	#4	#4	*Catholic (LAND)	3-0	WON vs Juniata 79-66; vs Susquehanna in Final 2/27
#5	#5	#6	Scranton (LAND)	1-1	LOST to Susquehanna 77-72 in semis
#6	#6	#5	Franklin and Marshall (CC)	2-1	vs Gettysburg in semis 2/26
NE
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	Amherst (NECAC)	1-0	vs Tufts in semis 2/27
#2	#2	#2	Trinity (Conn.) (NESCAC)	1-0	vs Middlebury in semis 2/27
#3	#3	#3	Tufts (NESCAC)	1-0	at Amherst in semis 2/27
#4	#4	#4	Babson (NEWMAC)	2-0	vs Emerson in semis 2/27
#5	#5	#6	WPI (NEWMAC)	2-0	vs MIT in semis 2/27
#6	#8	#9	Johnson & Wales (GNAC)	2-0	WON vs St. Joseph's 73-36; vs Emmanuel in semis 2/25
#7	#6	#7	Eastern Connecticut (LEC)	1-1	WON vs Mass-Boston 93-65; vs Mass-Dartmouth in semis 2/27
#8	#9	#8	MIT (NEWMAC)
#9			Middlebury (NESCAC)	1-0	at Trinity in semis 2/27
#10	#10	#10	Southern Vermont(NECC)	2-0	vs Regis in semis 2/26
#11	#11	#11	Nichols (CCC)	2-0	WON vs W. New England 10768; vs Endicott in semis 2/25
			DROPPING OUT
	#7	#5	Wesleyan (NESCAC)
SOUTH
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#2	Texas Lutheran (SCAC)	0-1	vs TBD in semis 2/27
#2	#4	#4	*Lynchburg (ODAC)	2-0	vs Hampden-Sydney in QFs 2/26
#3	#3	#1	*Emory (UAA)	1-1	at Rochester 2/27
#4	#2	#3	*Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC)	0-2	vs Randolph-Macon in QFs 2/26
#5	#8	#8	N.C. Wesleyan (USAC)	2-0	vs Averett in QFs 2/25
#6	#5	#5	LaGrange (USAC)	2-0	vs Ferrum in QFs 2/25
#7	#6	#6	East Texas Baptist (ASC)	1-0	vs Mary Harin-Baylor in QFs 2/25
#8	#7	#7	Roanoke (ODAC)	0-2	vs Randolph in QFs 2/26
WEST
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	St. Thomas (MIAC)	2-0	vs Bethel in semis 2/26
#2	#2	#2	Whitworth (NWC)	2-0	vs Puget Sound in semis 2/25
#3	#3	#3	Whitman (NWC)	2-0	vs Pacific Lutheran in semis 2/25
#4	#4	#6	St. John's (MIAC)	1-1	WON vs Augsburg 99-86; at St. Olaf in semis 2/26
#5	#5		St.Olaf (MIAC)	0-1	vs St. John's in semis 2/26
#6	#6	#4	Concordia-Moorhead (MIAC)	1-0	LOST to Bethel 67-62 in QFs
#7		#5	Bethel (MIAC)	2-0	WON at Concordia-Moorhead 67-62; at St. Thomas in semis 2/26
			DROPPING OUT
		#7	Dubuque (IIAC)
	#7		Augsburg (MIAC)

[Rafi]

Better source: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2016/02/24/third-ncaa-regional-ranking/ LOL

It looks like to me that Aurora is close to moving ahead of Chicago, but if I'm remembering correctly from last week that Aurora lost a win vs. RRO and Chicago gained one.

And, it looks to me that NCC has to be close to moving past St. Norbert.  I'm wondering if there are any scenarios where that would happen.....is it possible for NCC to overtake St. Norbert if both win out?

Dave, or anyone else, what are your thoughts?

[fantastic50]

Best guesses on Pool C status as of today.
(Teams listed as Pool A are top seeds in conference tournaments, but none have yet clinched a Pool A berth.)

Again, data is from D3 numbers guru Matt Snyder.
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Locks (19)
St. Thomas (MIAC, Pool A) 0.920/0.555/9-1, proj WE#1
Benedictine (NACC, Pool A) 1.000/0.523/4-0, proj CE#1
Marietta (OAC, Pool A) 0.920/0.545/5-2, proj GL#1
Christopher Newport (CAC, Pool A) 0.960/0.531/4-1, proj MA#1
Augustana (CCIW, Pool A) 0.960/0.529/3-1, proj CE#2
North Central (Ill.) (CCIW, Pool C) 0.750/0.594/3-6, proj CE#4
Amherst (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.840/0.557/4-2, proj NE#1
St. Norbert (MWC, Pool A) 0.913/0.527/2-1, proj CE#3
Susquehanna (LAND, Pool C) 0.870/0.536/3-2, proj MA#2
Whitworth (NWC, Pool A) 0.958/0.506/1-1, proj WE#2
Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC, Pool A) 0.840/0.545/5-2, proj EA#1
Tufts (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.554/3-4, proj NE#3
Hope (MIAA, Pool A) 0.955/0.500/1-1, proj GL#3
Emory (UAA, Pool A) 0.696/0.584/4-4, proj SO#1
Trinity (Conn.) (NESCAC, Pool A) 0.750/0.565/3-4, proj NE#2
Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC, Pool A) 0.880/0.521/3-2, proj GL#2
John Carroll (OAC, Pool C) 0.880/0.521/3-2, proj GL#4
Salisbury (CAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.547/4-2, proj MA#3
Catholic (LAND, Pool A) 0.800/0.546/4-2, proj MA#4

Likely in (5)
Rochester (UAA, Pool C) 0.739/0.561/4-3, proj EA#2
Alma (MIAA, Pool C) 0.760/0.551/3-4, proj GL#5
Wooster (NCAC, Pool C) 0.750/0.555/2-4, proj GL#6
Babson (NEWMAC, Pool A) 0.792/0.538/3-3, proj NE#4
Whitman (NWC, Pool C) 0.875/0.506/1-2, proj WE#3

Bubble teams (21)
Stockton (NJAC, Pool C) 0.792/0.533/2-3, proj AT#2
Scranton (LAND, Pool C) 0.750/0.542/2-3, proj MA#5
Chicago (UAA, Pool C) 0.696/0.559/2-6, proj CE#6
Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.564/4-4, proj SO#4
Lynchburg (ODAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.535/3-2, proj SO#3
DeSales (MACF, Pool A) 0.792/0.523/1-2, proj AT#3
Elmhurst (CCIW, Pool C) 0.800/0.519/2-4, proj CE#5
Carroll (MWC, Pool C) 0.826/0.509/0-2, proj CE#7
Texas Lutheran (SCAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.531/3-0, proj SO#2
St. John Fisher (E8, Pool A) 0.800/0.516/1-1, proj EA#
WPI (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.514/5-2, proj NE#5
Eastern Connecticut (LEC, Pool A) 0.680/0.553/1-4, proj NE#7
Johnson and Wales (GNAC, Pool A) 0.917/0.472/1-0, proj NE#6
New York University (UAA, Pool C) 0.792/0.513/3-3, proj EA#6
Franklin and Marshall (CC, Pool A) 0.800/0.509/1-0, proj MA#6
LaGrange (USAC, Pool C) 0.714/0.537/2-2, proj SO#5
Oswego State (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.720/0.533/4-3, proj EA#3
Aurora (NACC, Pool C) 0.792/0.508/1-2, proj CE#8
Brockport (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.640/0.559/3-5, proj EA#5
SUNY Geneseo (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.708/0.536/2-4, proj EA#4
New Jersey City (NJAC, Pool A) 0.720/0.522/4-2, proj AT#1

Longshots (14)
North Carolina Wesleyan (USAC, Pool A) 0.789/0.521/1-1, proj SO#7
East Texas Baptist (ASC, Pool A) 0.773/0.512/0-2, proj SO#6
St. Johns (MIAC, Pool C) 0.708/0.525/5-3, proj WE#4
Rutgers-Newark (NJAC, Pool C) 0.769/0.504/0-4, proj AT#5
Bethel (MIAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.528/3-7, proj WE#7
Brooklyn (CUNYAC, Pool C) 0.769/0.497/2-1, proj AT#4
Mount Union (OAC, Pool C) 0.667/0.531/2-4, proj GL#7
St. Olaf (MIAC, Pool C) 0.640/0.539/3-5, proj WE#5
Wesleyan (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.720/0.511/2-2, proj NE#8
MIT (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.497/2-3, proj NE#11
Roanoke (ODAC, Pool C) 0.750/0.500/1-2, proj SO#8
Hiram (NCAC, Pool C) 0.750/0.499/2-2, proj GL#8
Staten Island (CUNYAC, Pool C) 0.750/0.499/2-2, proj AT#6
Concordia-Moorhead (MIAC, Pool C) 0.667/0.526/4-4, proj WE#6

Based on seeing the new regional rankings, and the few relevant results so far, I am shifting a few teams...

• Emory (South #3) drops from a lock to likely. I predicted them to be #1 in the South region because of a super-high SOS, but it didn't happen.  If the Eagles fail to win the UAA's AQ at Rochester on Saturday, and TLU and/or VWU get knocked off, then it could take Emory a long time to get to the table, being in a region without any standout teams.
• NC Wesleyan (South #5) moves up from a longshot to the bubble, after moving up farther than I expected.
• SUNY Geneseo (East #6) drops from the bubble to a longshot after falling in the SUNYAC quarterfinals.
• Brockport (East unr.), while still alive in the SUNYAC tournament, also drops from the bubble to a longshot.   A potential 10th loss, even in the SUNYAC final, probably would keep them out of the final regional rankings.
• After a loss in the CUNYAC semifinals, Staten Island (Atlantic #6) drops from longshot to out, joining Lehman (Atlantic #5), which met the same fate in the first game of that doubleheader.
• With a NESCAC quarterfinal defeat dropping them entirely out of the Northeast rankings, Wesleyan also goes from longshot to out.

This leaves 18 locks, 6 likely teams, 20 bubble teams, and 13 longshots (for a total of 57 teams) in some level of Pool C contention.  After 18 Pool A berths go to the champions of leagues that clearly will get only one bid, there are currently 44 available berths for those 57, leaving enough for all of the bubble teams, for now.  However, it is expected that several of those 44 will go to surprise conference champs (teams off my radar here, that have no chance in Pool C) in average-or-better conferences, each popping a bubble by reducing the number available.

[bopol]

For laughs, I went through the Pool C selections to see how it might look (based on today's regional ratings and disregarding those who are favorites for Pool A (by conference record).

Round 1 - Amherst
Round 2 - John Carroll
Round 3- North Central
Round 4 - Tufts
Round 5 - Salisbury
Round 6 - Catholic
Round 7 - Rochester
Round 8 - Richard Stockton
Round 9 - Whitman
Round 10 - Alma
Round 11 - Wooster
Round 12 - Scranton
Round 13 - WPI
Round 14 - NYU (starting to feel icky)
Round 15 - Elmhurst
Round 16 - Virginia Wesleyan (really feel like things are stretched here)
Round 17 - St. Johns
Round 18 - Chicago
Round 19 - Aurora

Left on the table: MIT, Oswego St., Lehman, Lagrange, Mt. Union, St. Olaf

I wouldn't want to be below Wooster in this group.

[David Collinge]

Greek, might it be possible for you to substitute some other color (perhaps blue) into the formula Green=Pool A, Red=Pool C? There are those of us who have trouble distinguishing red from green.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

New Jersey City lost tonight.  They head into Pool C, but they're a very marginal team at 18-8 with a .523 or so.

[TheOsprey]

I believe NJCU is out.  Hopefully, Stockton gets the AQ with a final win over TCNJ.😉

Go Ospreys!!