Pool C

Started by Pat Coleman, January 20, 2006, 02:35:54 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

fantastic50

#6510
Today's bubble-relevant schedule

Clear bubble-bursters
3:00 NAthC final - Benedictine (lock) hosting Milwaukee Engineering (out) (Sunday game ... thanks, Ronk!)
4:00 SUNYAC final - Oswego State (likely) vs Cortland (out)
5:00 NCAC final - Wooster (lock) vs Denison (out)
7:00 NJAC final - Stockton (lock) hosting TCNJ (out)
8:00 MIAC final - St Thomas (lock) hosting St Olaf (out)
8:00 MIAA final - Alma (lock) hosting Trine (out)
10:00 NWC final - Whitworth (lock) hosting Pacific Lutheran (out)

Possible bubble-bursters
1:00 GNAC final - Johnson & Wales (bubble) hosting Albertus Magnus (out)
2:00 SCAC semis - Texas Lutheran (bubble) hosting Centenary (out)
2:00 USA South final - LaGrange (bubble) vs Covenant (out)
4:00 Empire 8 final - St John Fisher (bubble) hosting Hartwick (out)
4:00 Midwest final - St Norbert (lock) hosting Carroll (bubble)
5:00 Little East final - E. Connecticut (bubble) hosting Mass-Dartmouth (out)
7:00 Centennial final - Franklin & Marshall (bubble) hosting Swarthmore (out)

Might have some impact
12:00 NEWMAC semis - Babson (likely) hosting Emerson (out)
12:00 UAA regular season - Emory (likely) at Rochester (lock), for a Pool A berth
2:00 NESCAC semis - Trinity (lock) vs Middlebury (out), matters only if MC wins tomorrow, too
2:30 NEWMAC semis - WPI (bubble) vs MIT (longshot), matters mostly only if Babson loses
6:00 ODAC semis - Lynchburg (bubble) vs Emory & Henry (out)
7:00 CCIW final - Augustana (lock) hosting Elmhurst (likely)
8:00 ODAC semis - Virginia Wesleyan (bubble) vs Randolph (out), matters more if Lynchburg lost

ronk

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 27, 2016, 11:51:48 AM
Today's bubble-relevant schedule

Clear bubble-bursters
3:00 NAthC final - Benedictine (lock) hosting Milwaukee Engineering (out)
4:00 SUNYAC final - Oswego State (likely) vs Cortland (out)
5:00 NCAC final - Wooster (lock) vs Denison (out)
7:00 NJAC final - Stockton (lock) hosting TCNJ (out)
8:00 MIAC final - St Thomas (lock) hosting St Olaf (out)
8:00 MIAA final - Alma (lock) hosting Trine (out)
10:00 NWC final - Whitworth (lock) hosting Pacific Lutheran (out)

Possible bubble-bursters
1:00 GNAC final - Johnson & Wales (bubble) hosting Albertus Magnus (out)
2:00 SCAC semis - Texas Lutheran (bubble) hosting Centenary (out)
2:00 USA South final - LaGrange (bubble) vs Covenant (out)
4:00 Empire 8 final - St John Fisher (bubble) hosting Hartwick (out)
4:00 Midwest final - St Norbert (lock) hosting Carroll (bubble)
5:00 Little East final - E. Connecticut (bubble) hosting Mass-Dartmouth (out)
7:00 Centennial final - Franklin & Marshall (bubble) hosting Swarthmore (out)

Might have some impact
12:00 NEWMAC semis - Babson (likely) hosting Emerson (out)
12:00 UAA regular season - Emory (likely) at Rochester (lock), for a Pool A berth
2:00 NESCAC semis - Trinity (lock) vs Middlebury (out), matters only if MC wins tomorrow, too
2:30 NEWMAC semis - WPI (bubble) vs MIT (longshot), matters mostly only if Babson loses
6:00 ODAC semis - Lynchburg (bubble) vs Emory & Henry (out)
7:00 CCIW final - Augustana (lock) hosting Elmhurst (likely)
8:00 ODAC semis - Virginia Wesleyan (bubble) vs Randolph (out), matters more if Lynchburg lost

Tomorrow, not today

fantastic50

Quote from: Titan Q on February 27, 2016, 09:28:23 AM
Leveraging Matthew Snyder's data and the great work by fantastic50 and Greek Tragedy here, my Pool C's as of Saturday morning...

1. Susquehanna  0.875/0.543/4-2, MA#2  LAND final vs Catholic (Catholic interchangeable here)
2. Amherst  0.840/0.558/4-1, NE#1  NESCAC semis vs Tufts (Tufts also projected in)
3. John Carroll  0.889/0.526/3-2, GL#3  OAC final at Marietta (Marietta interchangeable here)
4. Plattsburgh State  .808/.551/4-3, E #1  lost to Oswego State in SUYAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
5. Salisbury  0.808/0.549/4-2, MA#3  CAC final at Christoper Newport (CNU interchangeable here)
6. Ohio Wesleyan  .852/.525/3-2, GL #2  lost to Denison in NCAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
7. North Central  0.720/0.600/3-7, CE #4  lost to Elmhurst in CCIW semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
8. Tufts  0.800/0.555/3-4, NE#3  NESCAC semis at Amherst (Amherst also projected in)
9. Oswego State  0.731/0.538/5-2, EA#5  SUNYAC final at Cortland
10. Scranton  0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5  lost to Susquehanna in LAND semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
11. Elmhurst  0.808/0.526/3-4, CE#5  CCIW final at Augustana (Augie interchangeable here)
12. WPI  0.800/0.513/5-2, NE#5  vs MIT in NEWMAC semis
13. Emory  .696/.584/4-4, SO #3  at Rochester in final UAA regular season game (Rochester interchangeable here)
14. Hope  .913/.504/1-1, GL #4  lost in MIAA semis to Trine (confirmed Pool C candidate)
15. Virginia Wesleyan  0.680/0.562/4-5, SO#4 ODAC semis vs Randolph
16. Chicago  0.696/0.560/2-6, CE#6  vs Washington U in final UAA regular season game (confirmed Pool C candidate)
17. Whitman  0.840/0.509/1-2, WE#3  lost to Pacific Lutheran in NWC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
18. LaGrange  0.739/0.546/3-2, SO#6  USAC final at Covenant
19. St. Johns  0.692/0.535/4-4, WE#4  lost at St. Olaf in MIAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
----------
20. New York University  0.792/0.513/3-3, EA#3  at Brandeis in final UAA regular season game (confirmed Pool C candidate)
21. New Jersey City  0.692/.525/4-2, AT #1 lost to TCNJ in NJAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
22. NC Wesleyan .762/529/1-2, SO #5  lost to LaGrange in USAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)


Bubble Relief
* Oswego State winning the SUNYAC over Cortland (Oswego currently included above)

Bubble Bursters (roughly in order of significance)
1. St. Olaf winning the MIAC (St. Thomas is a Pool C lock)
2. MSOE winning the NACC (Benedictine is a Pool C lock)
3. Pacific Lutheran winning the NWC (Whitworth is a Pool C lock)
4. Carroll winning the MWC (St. Norbert is a Pool C lock)
5. Trine winning the MIAA (Alma is a Pool C lock)
6. Denison winning the NCAC (Wooster a Pool C lock)
7. Middlebury winning the NESCAC (Amherst, Tufts, Trinity seem to be Pool C locks)
8. TCNJ winning the NJAC (Stockton a Pool lock)
9. MIT or Emerson winning the NEWMAC (Babson and WPI Pool C locks)
10. Emory & Henry or Randolph winning the ODAC (Lynchburg a Pool C lock)
11. Centenary, Colorado College, or Austin winning the SCAC (Texas Lutheran is very competitive in Pool C)

Let me know if I am missing anything.

While TitanQ is our resident Pool C expert, I made my own list before carefully reading his, to see how they compare...

1) Susquehanna 23-3, 21-3 (LAND, Pool C) 0.875/0.543/4-2, MA#2 (or Catholic)
2) Amherst 21-4, 21-4 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.840/0.556/4-1, NE#1
3) North Central (Ill.) 19-7, 18-7 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.720/0.600/3-7, CE#4
4) John Carroll 24-3, 24-3 (OAC, Pool C) 0.889/0.526/3-2, GL#3 (or Marietta)
5) Tufts 20-5, 20-5 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.555/3-4, NE#3
6) Plattsburgh State 21-5, 21-5 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.808/0.551/4-3, EA#1
7) Salisbury 21-5, 21-5 (CAC, Pool C) 0.808/0.549/4-2, MA#3 (or Christopher Newport)
8) Ohio Wesleyan 23-4, 23-4 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.852/0.525/3-2, GL#2
9) Hope 23-3, 21-2 (MIAA, Pool C) 0.913/0.504/1-1, GL#4
10) Rochester 17-7, 17-6 (UAA, Pool C) 0.739/0.560/3-3, EA#2 (or Emory, if not blocked)
11) Elmhurst 21-5, 21-5 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.808/0.526/3-4, CE#5 (or Augustana)
--- Safe teams above, bubble teams below ---
12) Scranton 19-7, 18-7 (LAND, Pool C) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
13) Whitman 22-4, 21-4 (NWC, Pool C) 0.840/0.509/1-2, WE#3
14) Virginia Wesleyan 18-8, 18-8 (ODAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.560/4-4, SO#4 (or Lynchburg)
15) Chicago 17-7, 16-7 (UAA, Pool C) 0.696/0.558/2-6, CE#6
16) WPI 20-5, 20-5 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.513/5-2, NE#5

I am estimating three bubble-bursting upsets, so this would be it.

Left standing when the music stops (Rankings are from the NCAA earlier this week)...
Atlantic - New Jersey City 18-8, 18-8 (NJAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.525/4-2, AT#1
Central - Carroll 20-4, 20-4 (MWC, Pool C) 0.833/0.514/0-2, CE#8
East - New York University 19-5, 19-5 (UAA, Pool C) 0.792/0.512/3-3, EA#3
Great Lakes - Mount Union 18-9, 17-9 (OAC, Pool C) 0.654/0.545/2-5, GL#7
Mid-Atlantic - none
Northeast - MIT 19-6, 19-6 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.497/2-3, NE#8
South - North Carolina Wesleyan 20-7, 16-5 (USAC, Pool C) 0.762/0.529/1-2, SO#5
West - St. John's 19-8, 18-8 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.535/4-5, WE#4

fantastic50

TitanQ and I have almost all of the same teams, just in a different order.  He has Oswego and LaGrange getting Pool C berths, while I have them in Pool A (at this point, being favored to win their conferences).

The only difference is that he has St John's as the last team in, while I am guessing that slot gets taken by a surprise AQ winner.

Greek Tragedy

Emory takes the AQ as Rochester is officially Pool C bound.
Pointers
Breed of a Champion
2004, 2005, 2010 and 2015 National Champions

Fantasy Leagues Commissioner

TGHIJGSTO!!!

dcahill44

Is Rochester a lock for a pool C now? Also what does everyone think of St John Fisher and Oswego State chances for a pool C? Will Oswego host if they lose today?

Greek Tragedy

#6516
Rochester should be in, IMO.

MIT making WPI nervous, leading by 11 at the half.

Middlebury trying to get four NESCAC teams in, leading Trinity by 10 with 7 min to go.
Pointers
Breed of a Champion
2004, 2005, 2010 and 2015 National Champions

Fantasy Leagues Commissioner

TGHIJGSTO!!!

KnightSlappy

Quote from: dcahill44 on February 27, 2016, 03:07:55 PM
Is Rochester a lock for a pool C now? Also what does everyone think of St John Fisher and Oswego State chances for a pool C? Will Oswego host if they lose today?

I think Oswego is in either way. Probably not hosting if they lose, maybe hosting if they win.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)


Rooting for Spalding right now, down 2 with a minute to play against Westminster.  Spalding in the tournament provides a lot more bracketing flexibility.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

Quote from: Hoops Fan on February 27, 2016, 03:35:00 PM

Rooting for Spalding right now, down 2 with a minute to play against Westminster.  Spalding in the tournament provides a lot more bracketing flexibility.

Westminster wins.  Stink.  Good for them, though.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)


CNU and Salisbury going to OT.

If Salisbury wins and Susquehanna loses, could both CNU and Salisbury host?  It would put SU and CUA virtually even.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

KnightSlappy

Quote from: Hoops Fan on February 27, 2016, 03:44:19 PM

CNU and Salisbury going to OT.

If Salisbury wins and Susquehanna loses, could both CNU and Salisbury host?  It would put SU and CUA virtually even.

I think Catholic might take a hosting spot then.

Greek Tragedy

Looks like NC Wesleyan and LaGrange might sit home. LaGrange losing at Covenant, down 7 with 2 to play.
Pointers
Breed of a Champion
2004, 2005, 2010 and 2015 National Champions

Fantasy Leagues Commissioner

TGHIJGSTO!!!

warriorcat

It's final.  Middlebury beats Trinity in Hartford.  They are one win away from bubble busting and sending probably 4 NESCAC teams to the tournament.

bopol

Quote from: warriorcat on February 27, 2016, 03:49:19 PM
It's final.  Middlebury beats Trinity in Hartford.  They are one win away from bubble busting and sending probably 4 NESCAC teams to the tournament.

No way, Middlebury has 10 losses.