Pool C

[fantastic50]

Today's bubble-relevant schedule

Clear bubble-bursters
3:00 NAthC final - Benedictine (lock) hosting Milwaukee Engineering (out) (Sunday game ... thanks, Ronk!)
4:00 SUNYAC final - Oswego State (likely) vs Cortland (out)
5:00 NCAC final - Wooster (lock) vs Denison (out)
7:00 NJAC final - Stockton (lock) hosting TCNJ (out)
8:00 MIAC final - St Thomas (lock) hosting St Olaf (out)
8:00 MIAA final - Alma (lock) hosting Trine (out)
10:00 NWC final - Whitworth (lock) hosting Pacific Lutheran (out)

Possible bubble-bursters
1:00 GNAC final - Johnson & Wales (bubble) hosting Albertus Magnus (out)
2:00 SCAC semis - Texas Lutheran (bubble) hosting Centenary (out)
2:00 USA South final - LaGrange (bubble) vs Covenant (out)
4:00 Empire 8 final - St John Fisher (bubble) hosting Hartwick (out)
4:00 Midwest final - St Norbert (lock) hosting Carroll (bubble)
5:00 Little East final - E. Connecticut (bubble) hosting Mass-Dartmouth (out)
7:00 Centennial final - Franklin & Marshall (bubble) hosting Swarthmore (out)

Might have some impact
12:00 NEWMAC semis - Babson (likely) hosting Emerson (out)
12:00 UAA regular season - Emory (likely) at Rochester (lock), for a Pool A berth
2:00 NESCAC semis - Trinity (lock) vs Middlebury (out), matters only if MC wins tomorrow, too
2:30 NEWMAC semis - WPI (bubble) vs MIT (longshot), matters mostly only if Babson loses
6:00 ODAC semis - Lynchburg (bubble) vs Emory & Henry (out)
7:00 CCIW final - Augustana (lock) hosting Elmhurst (likely)
8:00 ODAC semis - Virginia Wesleyan (bubble) vs Randolph (out), matters more if Lynchburg lost

[ronk]

Today's bubble-relevant schedule

Clear bubble-bursters
3:00 NAthC final - Benedictine (lock) hosting Milwaukee Engineering (out)
4:00 SUNYAC final - Oswego State (likely) vs Cortland (out)
5:00 NCAC final - Wooster (lock) vs Denison (out)
7:00 NJAC final - Stockton (lock) hosting TCNJ (out)
8:00 MIAC final - St Thomas (lock) hosting St Olaf (out)
8:00 MIAA final - Alma (lock) hosting Trine (out)
10:00 NWC final - Whitworth (lock) hosting Pacific Lutheran (out)

Possible bubble-bursters
1:00 GNAC final - Johnson & Wales (bubble) hosting Albertus Magnus (out)
2:00 SCAC semis - Texas Lutheran (bubble) hosting Centenary (out)
2:00 USA South final - LaGrange (bubble) vs Covenant (out)
4:00 Empire 8 final - St John Fisher (bubble) hosting Hartwick (out)
4:00 Midwest final - St Norbert (lock) hosting Carroll (bubble)
5:00 Little East final - E. Connecticut (bubble) hosting Mass-Dartmouth (out)
7:00 Centennial final - Franklin & Marshall (bubble) hosting Swarthmore (out)

Might have some impact
12:00 NEWMAC semis - Babson (likely) hosting Emerson (out)
12:00 UAA regular season - Emory (likely) at Rochester (lock), for a Pool A berth
2:00 NESCAC semis - Trinity (lock) vs Middlebury (out), matters only if MC wins tomorrow, too
2:30 NEWMAC semis - WPI (bubble) vs MIT (longshot), matters mostly only if Babson loses
6:00 ODAC semis - Lynchburg (bubble) vs Emory & Henry (out)
7:00 CCIW final - Augustana (lock) hosting Elmhurst (likely)
8:00 ODAC semis - Virginia Wesleyan (bubble) vs Randolph (out), matters more if Lynchburg lost

Tomorrow, not today

[fantastic50]

Leveraging Matthew Snyder's data and the great work by fantastic50 and Greek Tragedy here, my Pool C's as of Saturday morning...

1. Susquehanna  0.875/0.543/4-2, MA#2  LAND final vs Catholic (Catholic interchangeable here)
2. Amherst  0.840/0.558/4-1, NE#1  NESCAC semis vs Tufts (Tufts also projected in)
3. John Carroll  0.889/0.526/3-2, GL#3  OAC final at Marietta (Marietta interchangeable here)
4. Plattsburgh State  .808/.551/4-3, E #1  lost to Oswego State in SUYAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
5. Salisbury  0.808/0.549/4-2, MA#3  CAC final at Christoper Newport (CNU interchangeable here)
6. Ohio Wesleyan  .852/.525/3-2, GL #2  lost to Denison in NCAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
7. North Central  0.720/0.600/3-7, CE #4  lost to Elmhurst in CCIW semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
8. Tufts  0.800/0.555/3-4, NE#3  NESCAC semis at Amherst (Amherst also projected in)
9. Oswego State  0.731/0.538/5-2, EA#5  SUNYAC final at Cortland
10. Scranton  0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5  lost to Susquehanna in LAND semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
11. Elmhurst  0.808/0.526/3-4, CE#5  CCIW final at Augustana (Augie interchangeable here)
12. WPI  0.800/0.513/5-2, NE#5  vs MIT in NEWMAC semis
13. Emory  .696/.584/4-4, SO #3  at Rochester in final UAA regular season game (Rochester interchangeable here)
14. Hope  .913/.504/1-1, GL #4  lost in MIAA semis to Trine (confirmed Pool C candidate)
15. Virginia Wesleyan  0.680/0.562/4-5, SO#4 ODAC semis vs Randolph
16. Chicago  0.696/0.560/2-6, CE#6  vs Washington U in final UAA regular season game (confirmed Pool C candidate)
17. Whitman  0.840/0.509/1-2, WE#3  lost to Pacific Lutheran in NWC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
18. LaGrange  0.739/0.546/3-2, SO#6  USAC final at Covenant
19. St. Johns  0.692/0.535/4-4, WE#4  lost at St. Olaf in MIAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
----------
20. New York University  0.792/0.513/3-3, EA#3  at Brandeis in final UAA regular season game (confirmed Pool C candidate)
21. New Jersey City  0.692/.525/4-2, AT #1 lost to TCNJ in NJAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
22. NC Wesleyan .762/529/1-2, SO #5  lost to LaGrange in USAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)


Bubble Relief
* Oswego State winning the SUNYAC over Cortland (Oswego currently included above)

Bubble Bursters (roughly in order of significance)
1. St. Olaf winning the MIAC (St. Thomas is a Pool C lock)
2. MSOE winning the NACC (Benedictine is a Pool C lock)
3. Pacific Lutheran winning the NWC (Whitworth is a Pool C lock)
4. Carroll winning the MWC (St. Norbert is a Pool C lock)
5. Trine winning the MIAA (Alma is a Pool C lock)
6. Denison winning the NCAC (Wooster a Pool C lock)
7. Middlebury winning the NESCAC (Amherst, Tufts, Trinity seem to be Pool C locks)
8. TCNJ winning the NJAC (Stockton a Pool lock)
9. MIT or Emerson winning the NEWMAC (Babson and WPI Pool C locks)
10. Emory & Henry or Randolph winning the ODAC (Lynchburg a Pool C lock)
11. Centenary, Colorado College, or Austin winning the SCAC (Texas Lutheran is very competitive in Pool C)

Let me know if I am missing anything.

While TitanQ is our resident Pool C expert, I made my own list before carefully reading his, to see how they compare...

1) Susquehanna 23-3, 21-3 (LAND, Pool C) 0.875/0.543/4-2, MA#2 (or Catholic)
2) Amherst 21-4, 21-4 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.840/0.556/4-1, NE#1
3) North Central (Ill.) 19-7, 18-7 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.720/0.600/3-7, CE#4
4) John Carroll 24-3, 24-3 (OAC, Pool C) 0.889/0.526/3-2, GL#3 (or Marietta)
5) Tufts 20-5, 20-5 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.555/3-4, NE#3
6) Plattsburgh State 21-5, 21-5 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.808/0.551/4-3, EA#1
7) Salisbury 21-5, 21-5 (CAC, Pool C) 0.808/0.549/4-2, MA#3 (or Christopher Newport)
8) Ohio Wesleyan 23-4, 23-4 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.852/0.525/3-2, GL#2
9) Hope 23-3, 21-2 (MIAA, Pool C) 0.913/0.504/1-1, GL#4
10) Rochester 17-7, 17-6 (UAA, Pool C) 0.739/0.560/3-3, EA#2 (or Emory, if not blocked)
11) Elmhurst 21-5, 21-5 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.808/0.526/3-4, CE#5 (or Augustana)
--- Safe teams above, bubble teams below ---
12) Scranton 19-7, 18-7 (LAND, Pool C) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
13) Whitman 22-4, 21-4 (NWC, Pool C) 0.840/0.509/1-2, WE#3
14) Virginia Wesleyan 18-8, 18-8 (ODAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.560/4-4, SO#4 (or Lynchburg)
15) Chicago 17-7, 16-7 (UAA, Pool C) 0.696/0.558/2-6, CE#6
16) WPI 20-5, 20-5 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.513/5-2, NE#5

I am estimating three bubble-bursting upsets, so this would be it.

Left standing when the music stops (Rankings are from the NCAA earlier this week)...
Atlantic - New Jersey City 18-8, 18-8 (NJAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.525/4-2, AT#1
Central - Carroll 20-4, 20-4 (MWC, Pool C) 0.833/0.514/0-2, CE#8
East - New York University 19-5, 19-5 (UAA, Pool C) 0.792/0.512/3-3, EA#3
Great Lakes - Mount Union 18-9, 17-9 (OAC, Pool C) 0.654/0.545/2-5, GL#7
Mid-Atlantic - none
Northeast - MIT 19-6, 19-6 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.497/2-3, NE#8
South - North Carolina Wesleyan 20-7, 16-5 (USAC, Pool C) 0.762/0.529/1-2, SO#5
West - St. John's 19-8, 18-8 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.535/4-5, WE#4

[fantastic50]

TitanQ and I have almost all of the same teams, just in a different order.  He has Oswego and LaGrange getting Pool C berths, while I have them in Pool A (at this point, being favored to win their conferences).

The only difference is that he has St John's as the last team in, while I am guessing that slot gets taken by a surprise AQ winner.

[Greek Tragedy]

Emory takes the AQ as Rochester is officially Pool C bound.

[dcahill44]

Is Rochester a lock for a pool C now? Also what does everyone think of St John Fisher and Oswego State chances for a pool C? Will Oswego host if they lose today?

[Greek Tragedy]

Rochester should be in, IMO.

MIT making WPI nervous, leading by 11 at the half.

Middlebury trying to get four NESCAC teams in, leading Trinity by 10 with 7 min to go.

[KnightSlappy]

Is Rochester a lock for a pool C now? Also what does everyone think of St John Fisher and Oswego State chances for a pool C? Will Oswego host if they lose today?

I think Oswego is in either way. Probably not hosting if they lose, maybe hosting if they win.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Rooting for Spalding right now, down 2 with a minute to play against Westminster.  Spalding in the tournament provides a lot more bracketing flexibility.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Rooting for Spalding right now, down 2 with a minute to play against Westminster.  Spalding in the tournament provides a lot more bracketing flexibility.

Westminster wins.  Stink.  Good for them, though.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

CNU and Salisbury going to OT.

If Salisbury wins and Susquehanna loses, could both CNU and Salisbury host?  It would put SU and CUA virtually even.

[KnightSlappy]

CNU and Salisbury going to OT.

If Salisbury wins and Susquehanna loses, could both CNU and Salisbury host?  It would put SU and CUA virtually even.

I think Catholic might take a hosting spot then.

[Greek Tragedy]

Looks like NC Wesleyan and LaGrange might sit home. LaGrange losing at Covenant, down 7 with 2 to play.

[warriorcat]

It's final.  Middlebury beats Trinity in Hartford.  They are one win away from bubble busting and sending probably 4 NESCAC teams to the tournament.

[bopol]

It's final.  Middlebury beats Trinity in Hartford.  They are one win away from bubble busting and sending probably 4 NESCAC teams to the tournament.

No way, Middlebury has 10 losses.