Pool C

[KnightSlappy]

If Texas Lutheran wins, they'll host Hardin-Simmons in a Thursday game then fly somewhere to play one of the bye teams.

If Colorado College wins, the NCAA has three island teams in Hardin-Simmons, Colorado College, and SCIAC champ. Those three will have to fly to fill pods / balance brackets (probably two to the Northwest, unless Whitman doesn't get in, in which case Whitworth is also an island team).

I think Emory certainly hosts a pod. Emory, Covenant, ODAC, SAA is probably what it will be.

BSC is the only SAA team that can't get to Lynchburg - Lynchburg is ahead of Emory in the RR right now - if there's no geographic reasons for it (and Lynchburg wins the ODAC) wouldn't they be in line for it?

Sure maybe, but I could see Emory jumping Lynchburg even if they win the ODAC. Emory got the extra win over RRO Rochester.

Maybe they Emory and Lynchburg both host and we find another team that can get to Atlanta.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think Plattsburgh gets to host in the East. I don't really love anyone for a second hosting spot, but assuming everyone gets two then, yeah maybe Rochester or Oswego. Will depend on who gets ranked in the final secret rankings and how the RROs look. Maybe even Lancaster Bible will be ranked this time!

Right now I'm thinking: Amherst and Babson? (if they win), Plattsburgh and Rochester, Brooklyn and Stockton, CNU and Catholic, Lynchburg/Emory and either TXLu or an extra GL; JCU and Marietta (and possible OWU); Augie and Benedictine; St Thomas and Whitworth.

Best case scenario is they send SCIAC, SCAC, and ASC to Whitworth and get all the flights out of the way early - then GL get's an extra host and opens up a lot of other scenarios.  It's looking less likely that Whitman will get in now anyway.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

If Texas Lutheran wins, they'll host Hardin-Simmons in a Thursday game then fly somewhere to play one of the bye teams.

If Colorado College wins, the NCAA has three island teams in Hardin-Simmons, Colorado College, and SCIAC champ. Those three will have to fly to fill pods / balance brackets (probably two to the Northwest, unless Whitman doesn't get in, in which case Whitworth is also an island team).

I think Emory certainly hosts a pod. Emory, Covenant, ODAC, SAA is probably what it will be.

BSC is the only SAA team that can't get to Lynchburg - Lynchburg is ahead of Emory in the RR right now - if there's no geographic reasons for it (and Lynchburg wins the ODAC) wouldn't they be in line for it?

Sure maybe, but I could see Emory jumping Lynchburg even if they win the ODAC. Emory got the extra win over RRO Rochester.

Maybe they Emory and Lynchburg both host and we find another team that can get to Atlanta.

Mt. St. Joseph can get to Emory; RHIT can't (517).  But that's another option.

[fantastic50]

Today's bubble-relevant schedule

Clear bubble-bursters
3:00 NAthC final - Benedictine (lock) hosting Milwaukee Engineering (out) (Sunday game ... thanks, Ronk!)
4:00 SUNYAC final - Oswego State (likely) vs Cortland (out)
5:00 NCAC final - Wooster (lock) vs Denison (out)
7:00 NJAC final - Stockton (lock) hosting TCNJ (out)
8:00 MIAC final - St Thomas (lock) hosting St Olaf (out) (Also Sunday, 3:00)
8:00 MIAA final - Alma (lock) hosting Trine (out)
10:00 NWC final - Whitworth (lock) hosting Pacific Lutheran (out)

Possible bubble-bursters
1:00 GNAC final - Johnson & Wales (bubble) hosting Albertus Magnus (out)
2:00 SCAC semis - Texas Lutheran (bubble) hosting Centenary (out)
2:00 USA South final - LaGrange (bubble) vs Covenant (out)
4:00 Empire 8 final - St John Fisher (bubble) hosting Hartwick (out)
4:00 Midwest final - St Norbert (lock) hosting Carroll (bubble)
5:00 Little East final - E. Connecticut (bubble) hosting Mass-Dartmouth (out)
7:00 Centennial final - Franklin & Marshall (bubble) hosting Swarthmore (out)

Might have some impact
12:00 NEWMAC semis - Babson (likely) hosting Emerson (out)
12:00 UAA regular season - Emory (likely) at Rochester (lock), for a Pool A berth
2:00 NESCAC semis - Trinity (lock) vs Middlebury (out), matters only if MC wins tomorrow, too
2:30 NEWMAC semis - WPI (bubble) vs MIT (longshot), matters mostly only if Babson loses
6:00 ODAC semis - Lynchburg (bubble) vs Emory & Henry (out)
7:00 CCIW final - Augustana (lock) hosting Elmhurst (likely)
8:00 ODAC semis - Virginia Wesleyan (bubble) vs Randolph (out), matters more if Lynchburg lost

[KnightSlappy]

If Texas Lutheran wins, they'll host Hardin-Simmons in a Thursday game then fly somewhere to play one of the bye teams.

If Colorado College wins, the NCAA has three island teams in Hardin-Simmons, Colorado College, and SCIAC champ. Those three will have to fly to fill pods / balance brackets (probably two to the Northwest, unless Whitman doesn't get in, in which case Whitworth is also an island team).

I think Emory certainly hosts a pod. Emory, Covenant, ODAC, SAA is probably what it will be.

BSC is the only SAA team that can't get to Lynchburg - Lynchburg is ahead of Emory in the RR right now - if there's no geographic reasons for it (and Lynchburg wins the ODAC) wouldn't they be in line for it?

Sure maybe, but I could see Emory jumping Lynchburg even if they win the ODAC. Emory got the extra win over RRO Rochester.

Maybe they Emory and Lynchburg both host and we find another team that can get to Atlanta.

Mt. St. Joseph can get to Emory; RHIT can't (517).  But that's another option.

Right, yes, my only qualm would be that Emory, MSJ, Birmingham-Southern, Covenant (or LaGrange, if they get in) is a pretty soft pod. Lynchburg would help balance that out, but you're right that they might be in line to host in the south rankings. We might be forced into a soft pod by geography.

I think Plattsburgh gets to host in the East. I don't really love anyone for a second hosting spot, but assuming everyone gets two then, yeah maybe Rochester or Oswego. Will depend on who gets ranked in the final secret rankings and how the RROs look. Maybe even Lancaster Bible will be ranked this time!

Right now I'm thinking: Amherst and Babson? (if they win), Plattsburgh and Rochester, Brooklyn and Stockton, CNU and Catholic, Lynchburg/Emory and either TXLu or an extra GL; JCU and Marietta (and possible OWU); Augie and Benedictine; St Thomas and Whitworth.

Best case scenario is they send SCIAC, SCAC, and ASC to Whitworth and get all the flights out of the way early - then GL get's an extra host and opens up a lot of other scenarios.  It's looking less likely that Whitman will get in now anyway.

I think this is all very reasonable. I don't immediately see any holes to poke.

[KnightSlappy]

Three games still pending tonight, but I've updated the numbers.

http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Today's bubble-relevant schedule

Clear bubble-bursters
3:00 NAthC final - Benedictine (lock) hosting Milwaukee Engineering (out) (Sunday game ... thanks, Ronk!)
4:00 SUNYAC final - Oswego State (likely) vs Cortland (out)
5:00 NCAC final - Wooster (lock) vs Denison (out)
7:00 NJAC final - Stockton (lock) hosting TCNJ (out)
8:00 MIAC final - St Thomas (lock) hosting St Olaf (out) (Also Sunday, 3:00)
8:00 MIAA final - Alma (lock) hosting Trine (out)
10:00 NWC final - Whitworth (lock) hosting Pacific Lutheran (out)

Possible bubble-bursters
1:00 GNAC final - Johnson & Wales (bubble) hosting Albertus Magnus (out)
2:00 SCAC semis - Texas Lutheran (bubble) hosting Centenary (out)
2:00 USA South final - LaGrange (bubble) vs Covenant (out)
4:00 Empire 8 final - St John Fisher (bubble) hosting Hartwick (out)
4:00 Midwest final - St Norbert (lock) hosting Carroll (bubble)
5:00 Little East final - E. Connecticut (bubble) hosting Mass-Dartmouth (out)
7:00 Centennial final - Franklin & Marshall (bubble) hosting Swarthmore (out)

Might have some impact
12:00 NEWMAC semis - Babson (likely) hosting Emerson (out)
12:00 UAA regular season - Emory (likely) at Rochester (lock), for a Pool A berth
2:00 NESCAC semis - Trinity (lock) vs Middlebury (out), matters only if MC wins tomorrow, too
2:30 NEWMAC semis - WPI (bubble) vs MIT (longshot), matters mostly only if Babson loses
6:00 ODAC semis - Lynchburg (bubble) vs Emory & Henry (out)
7:00 CCIW final - Augustana (lock) hosting Elmhurst (likely)
8:00 ODAC semis - Virginia Wesleyan (bubble) vs Randolph (out), matters more if Lynchburg lost

That LEC game (UMass Dartmouth winning) was just a semifinal.  They play Keene State tomorrow.  It's still a bubble burst (although I think its ECSU's bubble), but just wanted to clarify.

[fantastic50]

Three games still pending tonight, but I've updated the numbers.

http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Thanks!

[David Collinge]

The OAC Commissioner just announced on the webcast that both OAC teams will be playing in the NCAA's.

I get what you're saying, RT, and I'm with you even if nobody else is. By contrast, on the Wooster radio broadcast (just radio guys, not a conference commissioner!), when it became apparent that Wooster would lose they kept saying things like "things will get very interesting for the Scots" and "a lot of things have to break right." Of course, they maybe were just clueless.

[dcahill44]

I like Plattsburgh, Oswego and Rochester for at larges in the east. Pool C candidates are weaker than usual and all have cases for it. SUNYAC one of the top conferences who deserves a 3rd team and UAA deserves a 2nd team in NCAAs. All these teams can make runs including Hartwick who won the E8 and also why can't Cortland host with a 20-7 record and winning SUNYAC

[Ralph Turner]

The OAC Commissioner just announced on the webcast that both OAC teams will be playing in the NCAA's.

I get what you're saying, RT, and I'm with you even if nobody else is. By contrast, on the Wooster radio broadcast (just radio guys, not a conference commissioner!), when it became apparent that Wooster would lose they kept saying things like "things will get very interesting for the Scots" and "a lot of things have to break right." Of course, they maybe were just clueless.

Thanks DC.
I thought it interesting that the OAC Commish would make the comment rather than saying the tourney selections would be announced on Monday.

[Ralph Turner]

I think Plattsburgh gets to host in the East. I don't really love anyone for a second hosting spot, but assuming everyone gets two then, yeah maybe Rochester or Oswego. Will depend on who gets ranked in the final secret rankings and how the RROs look. Maybe even Lancaster Bible will be ranked this time!

Right now I'm thinking: Amherst and Babson? (if they win), Plattsburgh and Rochester, Brooklyn and Stockton, CNU and Catholic, Lynchburg/Emory and either TXLu or an extra GL; JCU and Marietta (and possible OWU); Augie and Benedictine; St Thomas and Whitworth.

Best case scenario is they send SCIAC, SCAC, and ASC to Whitworth and get all the flights out of the way early - then GL get's an extra host and opens up a lot of other scenarios.  It's looking less likely that Whitman will get in now anyway.

Sigh... life on an island.  Colorado College winning the SCAC? Yes.

TLU winning the SCAC, being #1 in the Region, and not hosting a game?  How does that fly in the Central, Great Lakes or Northeast Regions?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think Plattsburgh gets to host in the East. I don't really love anyone for a second hosting spot, but assuming everyone gets two then, yeah maybe Rochester or Oswego. Will depend on who gets ranked in the final secret rankings and how the RROs look. Maybe even Lancaster Bible will be ranked this time!

Right now I'm thinking: Amherst and Babson? (if they win), Plattsburgh and Rochester, Brooklyn and Stockton, CNU and Catholic, Lynchburg/Emory and either TXLu or an extra GL; JCU and Marietta (and possible OWU); Augie and Benedictine; St Thomas and Whitworth.

Best case scenario is they send SCIAC, SCAC, and ASC to Whitworth and get all the flights out of the way early - then GL get's an extra host and opens up a lot of other scenarios.  It's looking less likely that Whitman will get in now anyway.

Sigh... life on an island.  Colorado College winning the SCAC? Yes.

TLU winning the SCAC, being #1 in the Region, and not hosting a game?  How does that fly in the Central, Great Lakes or Northeast Regions?

If Whitman doesn't get in, they'll probably fly Whitworth and the SCIAC champ to TX.

[fantastic50]

My latest thoughts, based on new numbers from knightslappy...

Pool C selections
1) Marietta 25-3, 25-3 (OAC, Pool C) 0.893/0.555/5-3, GL#1
2) North Central (Ill.) 19-7, 18-7 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.720/0.600/3-7, CE#4
3) Susquehanna 23-4, 21-4 (LAND, Pool C) 0.840/0.554/4-3, MA#2
4) Plattsburgh State 21-5, 21-5 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.808/0.551/4-3, EA#1
5) Salisbury 21-6, 21-6 (CAC, Pool C) 0.778/0.562/4-3, MA#3
6) Tufts 20-6, 20-6 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.769/0.562/3-5, NE#3
7) Ohio Wesleyan 23-4, 23-4 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.852/0.525/3-2, GL#2
8) Trinity (Conn.) 19-7, 18-7 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.720/0.562/2-5, NE#2
9) Elmhurst 21-6, 21-6 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.778/0.542/3-5, CE#5
10) Rochester 17-8, 17-7 (UAA, Pool C) 0.708/0.561/3-4, EA#2
11) Scranton 19-7, 18-7 (LAND, Pool C) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
12) Hope 23-3, 21-2 (MIAA, Pool C) 0.913/0.504/1-1, GL#4
13) Wooster 21-7, 20-7 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.741/0.563/3-4, GL#6
14) Whitman 22-4, 21-4 (NWC, Pool C) 0.840/0.509/1-2, WE#3
---bubble---
15) Oswego State 20-8, 20-8 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.714/0.552/6-2, EA#5
16) Carroll 20-5, 20-5 (MWC, Pool C) 0.800/0.529/0-3, CE#8
17) WPI 20-6, 20-6 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.769/0.521/5-3, NE#5
18) LaGrange 20-8, 17-7 (USAC, Pool C) 0.708/0.551/3-2, SO#6
and #19 goes by way of a bubble-burster tomorrow

Left on the board
Atlantic: New Jersey City 18-8, 18-8 (NJAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.525/4-2, AT#1
Central: Aurora 20-6, 19-6 (NATHC, Pool C) 0.760/0.510/1-2, ce#7
East: New York University 20-5, 20-5 (UAA, Pool C) 0.800/0.509/3-3, EA#3
Great Lakes: Mount Union 18-9, 17-9 (OAC, Pool C) 0.654/0.546/2-5, GL#7
Mid-Atlantic: none
Northeast: Eastern Connecticut 18-9, 18-9 (LEC, Pool C) 0.667/0.551/1-4, NE#7
South: North Carolina Wesleyan 20-7, 16-5 (USAC, Pool C) 0.762/0.527/1-2, SO#5
West: Bethel 18-9, 18-9 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.667/0.548/4-6, WE#7

Tomorrow's potential bubble-bursters
12:00 NESCAC final - Amherst (lock) hosting Middlebury (out)
12:00 NEWMAC final - Babson (likely) hosting MIT (longshot)
3:00 MIAC final - St Thomas (lock) hosting St Olaf (out)
3:00 NAthC final - Benedictine (lock) hosting Milwaukee Engineering (out)
3:30 ODAC final - Lynchburg (bubble) vs Randolph (out)
  SCAC final - Texas Lutheran (bubble) hosting Colorado College (out)

[Ralph Turner]

I think Plattsburgh gets to host in the East. I don't really love anyone for a second hosting spot, but assuming everyone gets two then, yeah maybe Rochester or Oswego. Will depend on who gets ranked in the final secret rankings and how the RROs look. Maybe even Lancaster Bible will be ranked this time!

Right now I'm thinking: Amherst and Babson? (if they win), Plattsburgh and Rochester, Brooklyn and Stockton, CNU and Catholic, Lynchburg/Emory and either TXLu or an extra GL; JCU and Marietta (and possible OWU); Augie and Benedictine; St Thomas and Whitworth.

Best case scenario is they send SCIAC, SCAC, and ASC to Whitworth and get all the flights out of the way early - then GL get's an extra host and opens up a lot of other scenarios.  It's looking less likely that Whitman will get in now anyway.

Sigh... life on an island.  Colorado College winning the SCAC? Yes.

TLU winning the SCAC, being #1 in the Region, and not hosting a game?  How does that fly in the Central, Great Lakes or Northeast Regions?

If Whitman doesn't get in, they'll probably fly Whitworth and the SLIAC champ to TX.

Respectfully, SLIAC or SCIAC? 
Thanks.