Pool C

[Ralph Turner]

Congrats on the great season. I guess that the 10-7 record against teams not in the field has to have the Pointer faithful wondering what if.

I have no doubt they are looking themselves in the mirror last year's National Championship plaque and wondering where it all went wrong.   

If the Pointers win the home games against UWW, UWRF and UWO, they are co-champs, and we may be talking a different scenario.

That makes them 13-4 against the non-field, 17-9 overall, but below the Mendoza line with the first round conference tourney loss to UWO.

What if unranked UW-Oshkosh goes deep?

Was the WIAC truly that "down" this season or is it that balanced?

[AO]

Congrats on the great season. I guess that the 10-7 record against teams not in the field has to have the Pointer faithful wondering what if.

I have no doubt they are looking themselves in the mirror last year's National Championship plaque and wondering where it all went wrong.   

If the Pointers win the home games against UWW, UWRF and UWO, they are co-champs, and we may be talking a different scenario.

That makes them 13-4 against the non-field, 17-9 overall, but below the Mendoza line with the first round conference tourney loss to UWO.

What if unranked UW-Oshkosh goes deep?

Was the WIAC truly that "down" this season or is it that balanced?

I'm going to go with little of column A, little of B.  If Stout with an 0-14 conference record can beat the IIAC champ Dubuque on the road and plays every top team in the conference close I think you might have some parity.

[Greek Tragedy]

Definitely down this year. No doubt in my mind.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Congrats on the great season. I guess that the 10-7 record against teams not in the field has to have the Pointer faithful wondering what if.

I have no doubt they are looking themselves in the mirror last year's National Championship plaque and wondering where it all went wrong.   

If the Pointers win the home games against UWW, UWRF and UWO, they are co-champs, and we may be talking a different scenario.

That makes them 13-4 against the non-field, 17-9 overall, but below the Mendoza line with the first round conference tourney loss to UWO.

What if unranked UW-Oshkosh goes deep?

Was the WIAC truly that "down" this season or is it that balanced?

I think it has something to do with UW-Superior leaving. Clearly the WIAC couldn't handle their departure

[Ralph Turner]

Congrats on the great season. I guess that the 10-7 record against teams not in the field has to have the Pointer faithful wondering what if.

I have no doubt they are looking themselves in the mirror last year's National Championship plaque and wondering where it all went wrong.   

If the Pointers win the home games against UWW, UWRF and UWO, they are co-champs, and we may be talking a different scenario.

That makes them 13-4 against the non-field, 17-9 overall, but below the Mendoza line with the first round conference tourney loss to UWO.

What if unranked UW-Oshkosh goes deep?

Was the WIAC truly that "down" this season or is it that balanced?

I think it has something to do with UW-Superior leaving. Clearly the WIAC couldn't handle their departure

LOL!  +1!

[David Collinge]

Congrats on the great season. I guess that the 10-7 record against teams not in the field has to have the Pointer faithful wondering what if.

I have no doubt they are looking themselves in the mirror last year's National Championship plaque and wondering where it all went wrong.   

If the Pointers win the home games against UWW, UWRF and UWO, they are co-champs, and we may be talking a different scenario.

That makes them 13-4 against the non-field, 17-9 overall, but below the Mendoza line with the first round conference tourney loss to UWO.

What if unranked UW-Oshkosh goes deep?

Was the WIAC truly that "down" this season or is it that balanced?

I think it has something to do with UW-Superior leaving. Clearly the WIAC couldn't handle their departure

What can you expect from a collection of relative UW-Inferiors?

[Greek Tragedy]

I think it has something to do with UW-Superior leaving. Clearly the WIAC couldn't handle their departure

+1k

I actually joked about the WIAC missing UW-Superior or a comment in a similar capacity. I don't remember when or what I said exactly though...in the WIAC board, of course.

[bopol]

Some final thoughts:

* I got 18 of the 19 Pool C's.  I missed Oswego and had Rochester in.   The East was a bit of a mess with all the RROs missing Pool A, but I just didn't think the regional committee would move Oswego from #5 to #2, though it makes sense.  OTOH, I really don't get how NYU passes Rochester.  The UAA teams do present a dilemma because without a season-ended tournament, do you treat Rochester as a 8 loss team then?   

* I like the NCAA bracket better than mine because it isn't as wicked in the Central/Great Lakes.  Moving Marietta into a bracket with a lot of southern teams works well and they used John Carroll and Marietta to mix in a lot of the eastern teams to bring better balance.   That said, they have opened up a possibility of some pretty heavy second weekend travel if there are upsets.  Scranton can't get to Benedictine on a bus, neither can St. Norbert get to John Carroll.  As a fan, I don't care and I like what they did to create a little more balance.

* I had 14 of the 16 regional hosts right.  The first miss was taking Babson as a host over Tufts.  Personally, that doesn't make sense given the last week's games as Babson took care of business and Tufts, not so much.  The other miss was taking Lynchberg over OWU.  I think Lynchberg might have kept it if they had won their championship game, but I didn't think that they would knock things out of balance that much (only 1 host from South, Atlantic and East and 3 from the Central, Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic.  That said, it did create a better balanced tournament and I'm a fan of that, so I'm cool with it.

Personally, I think the committee did a great job this year.  I do wonder about the regional committee that took care of the East though and the weirdness around NYU and Rochester.

[Titan Q]

Pool C selections, last 3 years...

2014 Pool C Selections (best guess at order)
1. Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW) - .852/.560/8-3   Midwest #2
2. UW-Whitewater (WIAC) - .852/.579/4-2   West #2  *national champion*
3. Wesley (CAC) - .870/.529/5-0   Mid-Atlantic #3
4. Williams (NESCAC) - .846/.567/4-3   Northeast #2    
5. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) - .815/.553/4-4   East #2
6. Randolph-Macon (ODAC) - .769/.559/4-3   South #1
7. Babson (NEWMAC) - .769/.567/3-5   Northeast #3
8. Augustana (CCIW) - .731/.555/5-4   Midwest #4
9. Eastern Connecticut (LEC) - .786/.546/3-4   Northeast #4
10. Geneseo State (SUNYAC) - .769/.554/2-4   East #3
11. St. Thomas (MIAC) - .815/.536/4-3   West #3
12. WPI (NEWMAC) - .846/.520/3-1  Northeast #5
13. Hope (MIAA) - .760/.555/2-4   Great Lakes #2 
14. Emory (UAA) - .680/.591/4-5  South #2
15. Wittenberg (NCAC) - .750/.530/3-6   Great Lakes #6
16. Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) - .741/.541/3-5   Great Lakes #7
17. Dickinson (CC) - .778/.529/2-1   Mid-Atlantic #4
18. Springfield (NEWMAC) - .731/.567/2-4   Northeast #6   
19. Bowdoin (NESCAC) - .792/.529/1-3   Northeast #7

2015 Pool C Selections (best guess at order)
1. (GL) Marietta (.893/.519/4-3)
2. (MA) Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
3. (C) UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4) *national champion*
4. (C)  Washington U. (.800/.565/4-2)
5. (GL) Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
6. (NE) Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
7. (NE) Amherst (.741/.579/6-3)
8. (NE) Bates (.760/.609/4-5)
9. (AT) William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
10. (GL) Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
11. (C) Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
12. (C) Elmhurst (.731/.551/4-4)
13. (S) Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
14. (GL) John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
15. (W) St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)
16. (MA) Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
17. (NE) Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
18. (NE) WPI (.808/.515/2-3)
19. (NE) Springfield (.704/.584/3-5)

2016 Pool C Selections (best guess at order)
1. St. Thomas (MIAC) .889/.564 (not updated)/11-1, W#1
2. Marietta (OAC) 0.893/0.556/5-3, GL#1
3. Susquehanna (LAND) 0.840/0.554/4-3, MA#2
4. Amherst (NESCAC) .815/.564/5-2, NE#1
5. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) 0.808/0.552/4-3, EA#1
6. Salisbury (CAC) 0.778/0.562/4-3, MA#3
7. Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) 0.852/0.525/3-2, GL#2
8. North Central (CCIW) 0.720/0.600/3-7, CE#4
9. Tufts (NESCAC) 0.769/0.561/3-5, NE#3
10. Elmhurst (CCIW) 0.778/0.543/3-5, CE#5
11. Wooster (NCAC) 0.741/0.563/3-4, GL#6
12. Oswego State (SUNYAC) 0.714/0.552/6-2, EA#5
13. Trinity (NESCAC) 0.720/0.563/2-5, NE#2
14. WPI (NEWMAC) 0.769/0.521/5-3, NE#5
15. Hope (MIAA) 0.913/0.504/1-1, GL#4   
16. LaGrange (USAC) 0.708/0.551/3-2, SO#6
17. Whitman (NWC) 0.840/0.509/1-2, W#3
18. Scranton (LAND) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
19. New York University (UAA) 0.800/0.509/3-3, EA#3


Out of 57 selections...

* Only one team with a sub-.700 WP has been selected - Emory in 2014.

* Only four teams with SOS lower than .510 have been selected - Hope in 2016 (.504), Catholic in 2015 (.506), Whitman in 2016 (.509), and NYU in 2016 (.509).

* Only two teams have been selected with zero wins vs RRO - Virginia Wesleyan and Eastern Connecticut in 2015.

* No team has been selected with fewer than two total games played vs RRO.

* Only four teams have been selected with fewer than four total games played vs RRO - Hope in 2016 (2), Eastern Connecticut in 2015 (2), Whitman in 2016 (3), Dickinson in 2014 (3).

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

* I like the NCAA bracket better than mine because it isn't as wicked in the Central/Great Lakes.  Moving Marietta into a bracket with a lot of southern teams works well and they used John Carroll and Marietta to mix in a lot of the eastern teams to bring better balance.   That said, they have opened up a possibility of some pretty heavy second weekend travel if there are upsets.  Scranton can't get to Benedictine on a bus, neither can St. Norbert get to John Carroll.  As a fan, I don't care and I like what they did to create a little more balance.

* I had 14 of the 16 regional hosts right.  The first miss was taking Babson as a host over Tufts.  Personally, that doesn't make sense given the last week's games as Babson took care of business and Tufts, not so much.  The other miss was taking Lynchberg over OWU.  I think Lynchberg might have kept it if they had won their championship game, but I didn't think that they would knock things out of balance that much (only 1 host from South, Atlantic and East and 3 from the Central, Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic.  That said, it did create a better balanced tournament and I'm a fan of that, so I'm cool with it.

Personally, I think the committee did a great job this year.  I do wonder about the regional committee that took care of the East though and the weirdness around NYU and Rochester.

I liked the NCAA's bracket this year as well for the most part. I told someone I gave it an A-.

Couple of things that were interesting to hear from Brian Van Haaften on Hoopsville today (archive available)...

- the committee he says is sliding away form the two top seeds in the regions all hosting and making sure one of them hosts and then the top teams remaining host. This was something that hadn't registered with me in the past, but struck a chord with me this year. We have been hearing for a year or two now how they are "seeding" the top 16 teams around the country so they can bracket better. That shows in the bracketing and now it becomes more obvious in the hosting. That will be something I will hold on to moving forward.

- I am not sure Lynchburg would have hosted. We know there weren't going to be a lot of team they could get to Lynchburg of the teams who were left without causing some headaches. I have also sensed the committee is sliding back to being okay with geographical hosts of four-team pods instead of top-seeded hosts. You might remember this was a significant hurdle in my interview with Steve Ulrich two years ago when Steve made it sound like the committee did NOT like geographical hosts in the first weekend - but wanted to reward the top seeds. I feel the committee has moved from that point of view for varying reasons.

- per the travel equation in the second weekend... I think the NCAA is trusting the men's committee more and allowing them some latitude. Yes, upsets can cause problems, but the men have been very good with mileage and travel for a number of years. I think the NCAA is giving them some movement as long as it isn't too extreme or too often. The women actually got in a similar situation a few years ago when CNU upset Ferrum and instead of the next weekend going to Thomas More with at least one bus, no one could get to anyone with 500 miles - they all headed to George Fox as a result. It seems the NCAA will allow some flexibility as long as the committee isn't taking advantage of it. Trust me, the NCAA looks things through and has always forced other decisions based on the potential of flights even to this day.

- That all being said... no one said there can't be a middle ground with these brackets. We have seen the #1 RR St. Mary's and #1 RR Middlebury be too far from each other so it ended up in much-lower-ranked Rochester instead. But certainly, if Scranton wins we have an interesting situation on our hands. LOL

- Per the East Region. I have actually seen a lot of the national committee making changes in that regional throughout the ranking "season." I can tell you, it finished: Plattsburgh, Oswego, NYU, Rochester, SJF (forgetting final team). I can't remember if the national committee made a change BEFORE the final vRRO numbers were run, but I think they adjusted after that happened. The part for Rochester that hurt, they lost early season games and NYU didn't. When comparing the Rochester wins to NYU's wins - both out of conference - they are about equal.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

- I am not sure Lynchburg would have hosted. We know there weren't going to be a lot of team they could get to Lynchburg of the teams who were left without causing some headaches. I have also sensed the committee is sliding back to being okay with geographical hosts of four-team pods instead of top-seeded hosts. You might remember this was a significant hurdle in my interview with Steve Ulrich two years ago when Steve made it sound like the committee did NOT like geographical hosts in the first weekend - but wanted to reward the top seeds. I feel the committee has moved from that point of view for varying reasons.

I agree with your point on geographical hosts, but Lynchburg is actually not a difficult place geographically.  We included them in the mock and pretty much every team in the Atlantic and Mid-Atlantic and most of the Great Lakes can get there under 500.  They really didn't choose hosts for geographic reasons this year (other than Emory and Whitworth).  Susquehanna, St. Norbert, and Ohio Wesleyan got to host because they earned it.

I like the compromise - trying to guarantee one host in each region and then moving as necessary.  The East and Atlantic didn't deserve two hosts and it's good for the committee to not try and shoehorn those in.

I'd like to see them be a little more creative crossing regions (although I do recognize there are probably second weekend considerations there) and I think a Lynchburg pod could've helped with that, but I agree: solid A-.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I know Lynchburg CAN host... I am saying considering what they had in the south for teams, I don't think the Lynchburg host worked for the committee. Personally, having done my fair share of bracketing.. I think sometimes we go for "pipe dreams" over reality too often.

I would agree I wouldn't mind seeing a little more cross region play, but I also know that is their goal... I think sometimes they just get stuck with too many teams and not ways to shift people around. Pat and I said on the show today, the second weekend scenarios which are SO hard for us to hash out on little sleep are usually the biggest restrictive scenarios. I know the NCAA has stopped bracketing plans for the "what ifs." They clearly will allow the risks here and there, but for everyone we see allowed I am sure there are dozens not allowed.

I had less to complain about on this bracket then I can remember in some time. Honestly, the last few years have been great.

[magicman]

- Per the East Region. I have actually seen a lot of the national committee making changes in that regional throughout the ranking "season." I can tell you, it finished: Plattsburgh, Oswego, NYU, Rochester, SJF  (forgetting final team). I can't remember if the national committee made a change BEFORE the final vRRO numbers were run, but I think they adjusted after that happened. The part for Rochester that hurt, they lost early season games and NYU didn't. When comparing the Rochester wins to NYU's wins - both out of conference - they are about equal.

Cortland State, the SUNYAC champs.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I know Lynchburg CAN host... I am saying considering what they had in the south for teams, I don't think the Lynchburg host worked for the committee. Personally, having done my fair share of bracketing.. I think sometimes we go for "pipe dreams" over reality too often.

I would agree I wouldn't mind seeing a little more cross region play, but I also know that is their goal... I think sometimes they just get stuck with too many teams and not ways to shift people around. Pat and I said on the show today, the second weekend scenarios which are SO hard for us to hash out on little sleep are usually the biggest restrictive scenarios. I know the NCAA has stopped bracketing plans for the "what ifs." They clearly will allow the risks here and there, but for everyone we see allowed I am sure there are dozens not allowed.

I had less to complain about on this bracket then I can remember in some time. Honestly, the last few years have been great.

Yeah.  It's usually the second round consideration that makes it difficult.  We tend to bracket with a mind towards just the top one or two teams from each pod getting out; I think they go farther than that.  Our projected bracket this year worked geographically for the hosts in each quadrant, but could've been difficult if there were some upsets.  They're being practical, which is sort of what they're forced to do.

The best move would've been to put the OWU pod in the top right, Marietta in the top left and fly the whitworth winner to the east coast.  But, it was all thrown off because Marietta is exactly 500.0 miles from Benedictine and thus about 150 yards too far to drive.

[Greek Tragedy]

Good stuff, Bob. +1k

It'll be interesting if Pool C can make it 3 years in a row and bring home the Walnut and Bronze.