Pool C

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I know Lynchburg CAN host... I am saying considering what they had in the south for teams, I don't think the Lynchburg host worked for the committee. Personally, having done my fair share of bracketing.. I think sometimes we go for "pipe dreams" over reality too often.

I would agree I wouldn't mind seeing a little more cross region play, but I also know that is their goal... I think sometimes they just get stuck with too many teams and not ways to shift people around. Pat and I said on the show today, the second weekend scenarios which are SO hard for us to hash out on little sleep are usually the biggest restrictive scenarios. I know the NCAA has stopped bracketing plans for the "what ifs." They clearly will allow the risks here and there, but for everyone we see allowed I am sure there are dozens not allowed.

I had less to complain about on this bracket then I can remember in some time. Honestly, the last few years have been great.

Yeah.  It's usually the second round consideration that makes it difficult.  We tend to bracket with a mind towards just the top one or two teams from each pod getting out; I think they go farther than that.  Our projected bracket this year worked geographically for the hosts in each quadrant, but could've been difficult if there were some upsets.  They're being practical, which is sort of what they're forced to do.

The best move would've been to put the OWU pod in the top right, Marietta in the top left and fly the whitworth winner to the east coast. But, it was all thrown off because Marietta is exactly 500.0 miles from Benedictine and thus about 150 yards too far to drive.

I see it at 502 miles which is about 3500 yards too far

[KnightSlappy]

Moving to 64 teams next year (and eliminating byes) will, in all likelihood, necessitate more flights in the first round.

Do we think that will make the bracketing process more restrictive (must prevent 2nd weekend flights at all costs) or more flexible (can use those flights to mix teams around)?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I know Lynchburg CAN host... I am saying considering what they had in the south for teams, I don't think the Lynchburg host worked for the committee. Personally, having done my fair share of bracketing.. I think sometimes we go for "pipe dreams" over reality too often.

I would agree I wouldn't mind seeing a little more cross region play, but I also know that is their goal... I think sometimes they just get stuck with too many teams and not ways to shift people around. Pat and I said on the show today, the second weekend scenarios which are SO hard for us to hash out on little sleep are usually the biggest restrictive scenarios. I know the NCAA has stopped bracketing plans for the "what ifs." They clearly will allow the risks here and there, but for everyone we see allowed I am sure there are dozens not allowed.

I had less to complain about on this bracket then I can remember in some time. Honestly, the last few years have been great.

Yeah.  It's usually the second round consideration that makes it difficult.  We tend to bracket with a mind towards just the top one or two teams from each pod getting out; I think they go farther than that.  Our projected bracket this year worked geographically for the hosts in each quadrant, but could've been difficult if there were some upsets.  They're being practical, which is sort of what they're forced to do.

The best move would've been to put the OWU pod in the top right, Marietta in the top left and fly the whitworth winner to the east coast. But, it was all thrown off because Marietta is exactly 500.0 miles from Benedictine and thus about 150 yards too far to drive.

I see it at 502 miles which is about 3500 yards too far

THe official calculation.  https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Moving to 64 teams next year (and eliminating byes) will, in all likelihood, necessitate more flights in the first round.

Do we think that will make the bracketing process more restrictive (must prevent 2nd weekend flights at all costs) or more flexible (can use those flights to mix teams around)?

They're pretty restrictive already.  I mean if CNU, Wooster, Keene, and Oswego made the Sweet Sixteen they'd have to fly CNU somewhere, but that's pretty darn unlikely.  You might have to fly Scranton somewhere if they get through, but for the most part it would be tough to get to a point where you'd have an extra flight in this bracket.

[KnightSlappy]

I know Lynchburg CAN host... I am saying considering what they had in the south for teams, I don't think the Lynchburg host worked for the committee. Personally, having done my fair share of bracketing.. I think sometimes we go for "pipe dreams" over reality too often.

I would agree I wouldn't mind seeing a little more cross region play, but I also know that is their goal... I think sometimes they just get stuck with too many teams and not ways to shift people around. Pat and I said on the show today, the second weekend scenarios which are SO hard for us to hash out on little sleep are usually the biggest restrictive scenarios. I know the NCAA has stopped bracketing plans for the "what ifs." They clearly will allow the risks here and there, but for everyone we see allowed I am sure there are dozens not allowed.

I had less to complain about on this bracket then I can remember in some time. Honestly, the last few years have been great.

Yeah.  It's usually the second round consideration that makes it difficult.  We tend to bracket with a mind towards just the top one or two teams from each pod getting out; I think they go farther than that.  Our projected bracket this year worked geographically for the hosts in each quadrant, but could've been difficult if there were some upsets.  They're being practical, which is sort of what they're forced to do.

The best move would've been to put the OWU pod in the top right, Marietta in the top left and fly the whitworth winner to the east coast. But, it was all thrown off because Marietta is exactly 500.0 miles from Benedictine and thus about 150 yards too far to drive.

I see it at 502 miles which is about 3500 yards too far

THe official calculation.  https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

It lists 500 miles in one direction and 502 in the other.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I know Lynchburg CAN host... I am saying considering what they had in the south for teams, I don't think the Lynchburg host worked for the committee. Personally, having done my fair share of bracketing.. I think sometimes we go for "pipe dreams" over reality too often.

I would agree I wouldn't mind seeing a little more cross region play, but I also know that is their goal... I think sometimes they just get stuck with too many teams and not ways to shift people around. Pat and I said on the show today, the second weekend scenarios which are SO hard for us to hash out on little sleep are usually the biggest restrictive scenarios. I know the NCAA has stopped bracketing plans for the "what ifs." They clearly will allow the risks here and there, but for everyone we see allowed I am sure there are dozens not allowed.

I had less to complain about on this bracket then I can remember in some time. Honestly, the last few years have been great.

Yeah.  It's usually the second round consideration that makes it difficult.  We tend to bracket with a mind towards just the top one or two teams from each pod getting out; I think they go farther than that.  Our projected bracket this year worked geographically for the hosts in each quadrant, but could've been difficult if there were some upsets.  They're being practical, which is sort of what they're forced to do.

The best move would've been to put the OWU pod in the top right, Marietta in the top left and fly the whitworth winner to the east coast. But, it was all thrown off because Marietta is exactly 500.0 miles from Benedictine and thus about 150 yards too far to drive.

I see it at 502 miles which is about 3500 yards too far

THe official calculation.  https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

It lists 500 miles in one direction and 502 in the other.

Wow.  Thanks for bringing that up.  I thought it was a standard measure.  I'll have to be more careful about the way I use that tool in the future.

[bopol]

I know Lynchburg CAN host... I am saying considering what they had in the south for teams, I don't think the Lynchburg host worked for the committee. Personally, having done my fair share of bracketing.. I think sometimes we go for "pipe dreams" over reality too often.

I would agree I wouldn't mind seeing a little more cross region play, but I also know that is their goal... I think sometimes they just get stuck with too many teams and not ways to shift people around. Pat and I said on the show today, the second weekend scenarios which are SO hard for us to hash out on little sleep are usually the biggest restrictive scenarios. I know the NCAA has stopped bracketing plans for the "what ifs." They clearly will allow the risks here and there, but for everyone we see allowed I am sure there are dozens not allowed.

I had less to complain about on this bracket then I can remember in some time. Honestly, the last few years have been great.

Yeah.  It's usually the second round consideration that makes it difficult.  We tend to bracket with a mind towards just the top one or two teams from each pod getting out; I think they go farther than that.  Our projected bracket this year worked geographically for the hosts in each quadrant, but could've been difficult if there were some upsets.  They're being practical, which is sort of what they're forced to do.

The best move would've been to put the OWU pod in the top right, Marietta in the top left and fly the whitworth winner to the east coast. But, it was all thrown off because Marietta is exactly 500.0 miles from Benedictine and thus about 150 yards too far to drive.

I see it at 502 miles which is about 3500 yards too far

THe official calculation.  https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

It lists 500 miles in one direction and 502 in the other.

It's actually the same distance, but because the earth is moving about its axis, the length dilation in one direction causes it to be shorter than it really is.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I know Lynchburg CAN host... I am saying considering what they had in the south for teams, I don't think the Lynchburg host worked for the committee. Personally, having done my fair share of bracketing.. I think sometimes we go for "pipe dreams" over reality too often.

I would agree I wouldn't mind seeing a little more cross region play, but I also know that is their goal... I think sometimes they just get stuck with too many teams and not ways to shift people around. Pat and I said on the show today, the second weekend scenarios which are SO hard for us to hash out on little sleep are usually the biggest restrictive scenarios. I know the NCAA has stopped bracketing plans for the "what ifs." They clearly will allow the risks here and there, but for everyone we see allowed I am sure there are dozens not allowed.

I had less to complain about on this bracket then I can remember in some time. Honestly, the last few years have been great.

Yeah.  It's usually the second round consideration that makes it difficult.  We tend to bracket with a mind towards just the top one or two teams from each pod getting out; I think they go farther than that.  Our projected bracket this year worked geographically for the hosts in each quadrant, but could've been difficult if there were some upsets.  They're being practical, which is sort of what they're forced to do.

The best move would've been to put the OWU pod in the top right, Marietta in the top left and fly the whitworth winner to the east coast. But, it was all thrown off because Marietta is exactly 500.0 miles from Benedictine and thus about 150 yards too far to drive.

I see it at 502 miles which is about 3500 yards too far

THe official calculation.  https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

It lists 500 miles in one direction and 502 in the other.

It's actually the same distance, but because the earth is moving about its axis, the length dilation in one direction causes it to be shorter than it really is.

Yeah, crazy how that works.  Mt. St. Joseph can't drive to St. Norbert, but St. Norbert could drive the other direction.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I know Lynchburg CAN host... I am saying considering what they had in the south for teams, I don't think the Lynchburg host worked for the committee. Personally, having done my fair share of bracketing.. I think sometimes we go for "pipe dreams" over reality too often.

I would agree I wouldn't mind seeing a little more cross region play, but I also know that is their goal... I think sometimes they just get stuck with too many teams and not ways to shift people around. Pat and I said on the show today, the second weekend scenarios which are SO hard for us to hash out on little sleep are usually the biggest restrictive scenarios. I know the NCAA has stopped bracketing plans for the "what ifs." They clearly will allow the risks here and there, but for everyone we see allowed I am sure there are dozens not allowed.

I had less to complain about on this bracket then I can remember in some time. Honestly, the last few years have been great.

Yeah.  It's usually the second round consideration that makes it difficult.  We tend to bracket with a mind towards just the top one or two teams from each pod getting out; I think they go farther than that.  Our projected bracket this year worked geographically for the hosts in each quadrant, but could've been difficult if there were some upsets.  They're being practical, which is sort of what they're forced to do.

The best move would've been to put the OWU pod in the top right, Marietta in the top left and fly the whitworth winner to the east coast.  But, it was all thrown off because Marietta is exactly 500.0 miles from Benedictine and thus about 150 yards too far to drive.

They absolutely look at far more options than just the top two teams. Seen and heard that on many occasions.

I see it at 502 miles which is about 3500 yards too far

THe official calculation.  https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

It lists 500 miles in one direction and 502 in the other.

Wow.  Thanks for bringing that up.  I thought it was a standard measure.  I'll have to be more careful about the way I use that tool in the future.

Yeah - this happens often, actually. You have to make sure to go from which school you think is traveling to the one that hosts. It actually caused a major problem in women's basketball a few years ago. I think Marymount and Muhlenberg or Albright were playing each other and because the game was in PA it was two miles over the 200-mile threshold that considered it a regional game (tighter restrictions on regional games at the time - 70% rule wasn't in affect). If the game had been played at Marymount, it would have been fine. Sometimes the trips in one direction or another can alter the mileage slightly.

Moving to 64 teams next year (and eliminating byes) will, in all likelihood, necessitate more flights in the first round.

Do we think that will make the bracketing process more restrictive (must prevent 2nd weekend flights at all costs) or more flexible (can use those flights to mix teams around)?

Watching the women over the last few years can give us hints. There are times they are restrictive (i.e. this year making sure Maryville hosted because it made geographical sense) and other years where they have had some flexibility (NCAA approved a bracket where a CNU upset forced three teams to fly to whatever team was going to host - George Fox that year) where they might not have approved it another year.

I think it will open up other hosts and flexibility with geographical hosting in the first round. I know the committee this year was hoping ETBU would make the tournament because then they could get BSC to ETBU and TLU to ETBU and fly in Emory to round out the pod (despite the fact TLU clearly was regionally ranked better than ETBU).

If Whitworth keeps winning, the committee is either going to be forced to fly two teams to Whitworth, or Whitworth may lose the chance to host opening weekends if there isn't another NWC team in the mix (fly Whitworth and a Cali team out or fly three teams in - easy decision in the eyes of the NCAA). However, I think it will open up the chances of Whitworth hosting the second weeekend because the committee may find themselves with no choice (i.e. the women's example). Not a ton more chances, but a better chance.

So, I think it will be a mixed bag. More creative bracketing with geographical hosts on pods with teams bussed in; Whitworth maybe losing first weekend hosts, but picking up second weekend hosts; each year may be different.

Another factor, Division III has taken extra steps to try and shore up the budget and increase funding. That will help at least keep the bracket from being locked down to the fullest possible way, but they are still looking to free up money (like moving selection announcements back to Sundays to free up more time to book travel for teams). This is a fluid situation that will continue to change, I suspect.

[sac]

Pool C selections, last 3 years...

2014 Pool C Selections (best guess at order)
1. Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW) - .852/.560/8-3   Midwest #2
2. UW-Whitewater (WIAC) - .852/.579/4-2   West #2  *national champion*
3. Wesley (CAC) - .870/.529/5-0   Mid-Atlantic #3
4. Williams (NESCAC) - .846/.567/4-3   Northeast #2    
5. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) - .815/.553/4-4   East #2
6. Randolph-Macon (ODAC) - .769/.559/4-3   South #1
7. Babson (NEWMAC) - .769/.567/3-5   Northeast #3
8. Augustana (CCIW) - .731/.555/5-4   Midwest #4
9. Eastern Connecticut (LEC) - .786/.546/3-4   Northeast #4
10. Geneseo State (SUNYAC) - .769/.554/2-4   East #3
11. St. Thomas (MIAC) - .815/.536/4-3   West #3
12. WPI (NEWMAC) - .846/.520/3-1  Northeast #5
13. Hope (MIAA) - .760/.555/2-4   Great Lakes #2  [/i]
14. Emory (UAA) - .680/.591/4-5  South #2
15. Wittenberg (NCAC) - .750/.530/3-6   Great Lakes #6
16. Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) - .741/.541/3-5   Great Lakes #7
17. Dickinson (CC) - .778/.529/2-1   Mid-Atlantic #4
18. Springfield (NEWMAC) - .731/.567/2-4   Northeast #6   
19. Bowdoin (NESCAC) - .792/.529/1-3   Northeast #7

2015 Pool C Selections (best guess at order)
1. (GL) Marietta (.893/.519/4-3)
2. (MA) Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
3. (C) UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4) *national champion*  (tied with WW, not sure who had #1 WIAC seed going into WIAC tournament)
4. (C)  Washington U. (.800/.565/4-2)
5. (GL) Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
6. (NE) Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
7. (NE) Amherst (.741/.579/6-3)
8. (NE) Bates (.760/.609/4-5)
9. (AT) William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
10. (GL) Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
11. (C) Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
12. (C) Elmhurst (.731/.551/4-4)
13. (S) Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
14. (GL) John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
15. (W) St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)
16. (MA) Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
17. (NE) Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
18. (NE) WPI (.808/.515/2-3)
19. (NE) Springfield (.704/.584/3-5)

2016 Pool C Selections (best guess at order)
1. St. Thomas (MIAC) .889/.564 (not updated)/11-1, W#1
2. Marietta (OAC) 0.893/0.556/5-3, GL#1
3. Susquehanna (LAND) 0.840/0.554/4-3, MA#2
4. Amherst (NESCAC) .815/.564/5-2, NE#1
5. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) 0.808/0.552/4-3, EA#1
6. Salisbury (CAC) 0.778/0.562/4-3, MA#3
7. Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) 0.852/0.525/3-2, GL#2
8. North Central (CCIW) 0.720/0.600/3-7, CE#4
9. Tufts (NESCAC) 0.769/0.561/3-5, NE#3
10. Elmhurst (CCIW) 0.778/0.543/3-5, CE#5
11. Wooster (NCAC) 0.741/0.563/3-4, GL#6
12. Oswego State (SUNYAC) 0.714/0.552/6-2, EA#5
13. Trinity (NESCAC) 0.720/0.563/2-5, NE#2
14. WPI (NEWMAC) 0.769/0.521/5-3, NE#5
15. Hope (MIAA) 0.913/0.504/1-1, GL#4   
16. LaGrange (USAC) 0.708/0.551/3-2, SO#6
17. Whitman (NWC) 0.840/0.509/1-2, W#3
18. Scranton (LAND) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
19. New York University (UAA) 0.800/0.509/3-3, EA#3


Out of 57 selections...

* Only one team with a sub-.700 WP has been selected - Emory in 2014.

* Only four teams with SOS lower than .510 have been selected - Hope in 2016 (.504), Catholic in 2015 (.506), Whitman in 2016 (.509), and NYU in 2016 (.509).

* Only two teams have been selected with zero wins vs RRO - Virginia Wesleyan and Eastern Connecticut in 2015.

* No team has been selected with fewer than two total games played vs RRO.

* Only four teams have been selected with fewer than four total games played vs RRO - Hope in 2016 (2), Eastern Connecticut in 2015 (2), Whitman in 2016 (3), Dickinson in 2014 (3).

Bold teams are regular season conference Champions who lost their tournament and needed a Pool C bid.

[Greek Tragedy]

Last year, Whitewater was the #1 seed in the WIAC tourney and Point was #2 as both finished 15-1. Whitewater won the coin flip.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Did a quick comparison of the Top 25 versus the Pool C picks because I was simply curious to see how they are alike and different.  I understand they are two completely different methods of evaluating teams, but it is still interesting (at least to me).

Pool C Order	School	Top 25	Votes	Massey
1	St. Thomas	8	417	5
2	Marietta	6	475	7
3	Susquehanna	19	164	19
4	Amherst	15	271	25
5	Plattsburgh State	23	87	22
6	Salisbury	24	67	18
7	Ohio Wesleyan	10	385	13
8	North Central	17	244	6
9	Tufts	20	139	32
10	Elmhurst	18	242	9
11	Wooster	ORV	3	21
12	Oswego State	-	0	52
13	Trinity	ORV	11	53
14	WPI	ORV	13	83
15	Hope	9	412	8
16	LaGrange	-	0	57
17	Whitman	11	337	15
18	Scranton	ORV	6	41
19	New York University	ORV	22	24

EDIT - added Massey as well

[fantastic50]

As in most sports polls, voters in the D3 Top 25 value winning percentage much more than strength of schedule.  This is also true in the D1 basketball & football polls, at least when considering teams within "power" conferences.  By comparison, Pool C selections seem to value both WP & SOS significantly. 

The Pool C teams that were selected earlier than would be expected based on their poll ranking had strong schedules but more losses (average WP .809 and SOS .556 among this group)
Susquehanna (.840/.554)
Plattsburgh St (.808/.552)
Salisbury (.778/.562)
Wooster (.741/.563)
Oswego St (.714/.552)

The Pool C teams selected later than expected based on ranking had rather weak schedules (WP .851, SOS .507)
Hope (.913/.504)
Whitman (.840/.509)
NYU (.800/.509)

This is true even more among ranked teams who would have been on the bubble (or out) had they not won their conference tournaments (WP .914, SOS .479)
Franklin & Marshall (.815/.519)
Johnson & Wales (.926/.479)
Lancaster Bible (1.000/.439)

[Greek Tragedy]

Pool C teams

1st Round
Ohio Wesleyan
Scranton
North Central (IL)
Amherst
WPI
Susquehanna
Plattsburgh St.
Trinity
Tufts
Hope
La Grange
St. Thomas
Elmhurst
Whitman
NYU
Salisbury
Marietta
Oswego St.
Wooster
Record 10-9

No Pool C teams played each other

2nd Round
Ohio Wesleyan
Amherst
Susquehanna
Tufts
Hope
*St. Thomas
*Elmhurst
Whitman
Oswego St.
Wooster
Record 7-3

St. Thomas beat Elmhurst (both Pool C)

3rd Round
Ohio Wesleyan
Amherst
Tufts
*St. Thomas
*Whitman
*Oswego St.
*Wooster
Record 4-3

St. Thomas beat Whitman (both Pool C)
Wooster beat Oswego St (both Pool C)

4th Round
*Amherst
*Tufts
St. Thomas
Wooster
Record 2-2

Amhesrt beat Tufts (both Pool C)

23-17

Semis
Benedictine  (Pool A) vs Amherst (Pool C)
CNU ( Pool A) vs St. Thomas (Pool C)

[Ralph Turner]

23-17   (.575)

Outcome versus non-Pool C 19-13 (.594)

Semis
Benedictine  (Pool A) vs Amherst (Pool C)
CNU ( Pool A) vs St. Thomas (Pool C)