Pool C

[Smitty Oom]

The Claremont-Mudd-Scripps loss to Pamona-Pitzer is an interesting one for Pool C. CMS has a great WP but their SOS was a brutal .468 before this game... does this hurt their chance at a Pool C birth should they not get the SCIAC AQ, or is their WP high enough to overcome the SOS? I ask because I have seen people not too impressed with them so far, especially Dave who had them ranked 25 in his latest poll.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The Claremont-Mudd-Scripps loss to Pamona-Pitzer is an interesting one for Pool C. CMS has a great WP but their SOS was a brutal .468 before this game... does this hurt their chance at a Pool C birth should they not get the SCIAC AQ, or is their WP high enough to overcome the SOS? I ask because I have seen people not too impressed with them so far, especially Dave who had them ranked 25 in his latest poll.

An SOS below .500 is basically not going to make it as a Pool C. It hasn't happened and while the committee is willing to maybe consider it more now than in the past, .468 is no where close to being a serious consideration. That's why CMS is parked so low in the rankings this week in the first place.

So yeah... it hurst their chances. The SCIAC is a one-bid league.

[fantastic50]

I have been experimenting with simulating all future games (including conference tournaments) and automated mock selections.  This is still in a very early version, but here is my current listing of teams based on where they might fall if in Pool C.  Raw data is from Ken Massey's site, so the school names are in his formats, for now.

Near-locks (99%+ if in Pool C, 12 teams)
Washington_MO (18-3, 0.588, UAA 10-0) 100% (97% AQ, or 100% if in Pool C)
Babson (21-1, 0.583, NEWMAC 11-0) 100% (78% AQ, or 100% if in Pool C)
Chris_Newport (20-2, 0.536, CAC 14-1) 100% (66% AQ, or 100% if in Pool C)
Middlebury (19-3, 0.612, NESCAC 7-2) 100% (33% AQ, or 100% if in Pool C)
Susquehanna (18-3, 0.559, LAND 9-2) 100% (52% AQ, or 100% if in Pool C)
WI_River_Falls (18-2, 0.603, WIAC 10-1) 100% (50% AQ, or 100% if in Pool C)
Whitman (21-0, 0.549, NWC 12-0) 100% (75% AQ, or 99% if in Pool C)
Marietta (18-4, 0.589, OAC 13-2) 99% (40% AQ, or 99% if in Pool C)
Salisbury_St (18-4, 0.550, CAC 13-2) 99% (28% AQ, or 99% if in Pool C)
Tufts (19-5, 0.569, NESCAC 8-2) 99% (27% AQ, or 99% if in Pool C)
Wesleyan_CT (18-5, 0.567, NESCAC 5-4) 99% (15% AQ, or 99% if in Pool C)
Whitworth (19-3, 0.538, NWC 10-3) 99% (22% AQ, or 99% if in Pool C)

Solid position (80-98% if in Pool C, 6 teams)
Neumann (20-2, 0.512, CSAC 14-1) 99% (54% AQ, or 98% if in Pool C)
WI_Whitewater (18-3, 0.559, WIAC 8-3) 99% (35% AQ, or 98% if in Pool C)
Hope (17-3, 0.533, MIAA 11-0) 99% (74% AQ, or 97% if in Pool C)
Rochester_NY (19-2, 0.526, UAA 8-2) 94% (3% AQ, or 94% if in Pool C)
Hanover (16-3, 0.521, HCAC 13-2) 92% (40% AQ, or 87% if in Pool C)
Amherst (16-6, 0.603, NESCAC 6-3) 87% (10% AQ, or 86% if in Pool C)

Bubble (20-79% if in Pool C, 27 teams)
Benedictine_IL (19-3, 0.499, NACC 17-1) 91% (63% AQ, or 76% if in Pool C)
MIT (17-5, 0.541, NEWMAC 9-2) 79% (17% AQ, or 75% if in Pool C)
Cabrini (17-4, 0.520, CSAC 13-2) 80% (26% AQ, or 73% if in Pool C)
Swarthmore (18-4, 0.531, CC 12-3) 84% (44% AQ, or 72% if in Pool C)
St_Thomas_MN (17-4, 0.529, MIAC 13-3) 87% (54% AQ, or 71% if in Pool C)
Loras (16-6, 0.565, IIAC 9-4) 81% (36% AQ, or 71% if in Pool C)
Mt_St_Joseph (16-4, 0.517, HCAC 12-3) 79% (35% AQ, or 68% if in Pool C)
John_Carroll (15-6, 0.569, OAC 12-3) 77% (27% AQ, or 68% if in Pool C)
St_Lawrence (17-4, 0.523, LL 11-2) 82% (47% AQ, or 66% if in Pool C)
Augustana_IL (18-4, 0.523, CCIW 11-2) 82% (53% AQ, or 61% if in Pool C)
Ramapo (21-2, 0.480, NJAC 14-2) 79% (45% AQ, or 61% if in Pool C)
St_John_Fisher (16-5, 0.540, E8 11-1) 76% (47% AQ, or 55% if in Pool C)
Concordia_TX (15-5, 0.539, ASC 6-1) 73% (41% AQ, or 55% if in Pool C)
Claremont_M.S. (16-1, 0.471, SCIAC 11-1) 81% (61% AQ, or 52% if in Pool C)
Hardin-Simmons (16-6, 0.557, ASC 5-2) 61% (27% AQ, or 47% if in Pool C)
Le_Tourneau (17-4, 0.498, ASC 8-1) 60% (25% AQ, or 46% if in Pool C)
Carthage (14-6, 0.567, CCIW 8-4) 58% (22% AQ, or 46% if in Pool C)
Scranton (17-5, 0.526, LAND 9-2) 61% (32% AQ, or 43% if in Pool C)
Guilford (18-4, 0.505, ODAC 11-2) 60% (30% AQ, or 43% if in Pool C)
St_Norbert (17-3, 0.492, MWC 14-1) 77% (63% AQ, or 39% if in Pool C)
Endicott (17-5, 0.511, CCC 12-3) 53% (25% AQ, or 38% if in Pool C)
College_of_NJ (17-6, 0.521, NJAC 13-3) 54% (30% AQ, or 35% if in Pool C)
Williams (16-7, 0.585, NESCAC 4-5) 36% (5% AQ, or 32% if in Pool C)
Ripon (15-5, 0.508, MWC 11-4) 40% (16% AQ, or 29% if in Pool C)
Pomona_Pitzer (11-5, 0.540, SCIAC 8-4) 39% (14% AQ, or 29% if in Pool C)
Wooster (16-6, 0.535, NCAC 13-2) 53% (35% AQ, or 28% if in Pool C)
MA_Dartmouth (15-7, 0.565, LEC 8-3) 47% (30% AQ, or 24% if in Pool C)

Longshots (2-19% if in Pool C, 29 teams)
DeSales (16-6, 0.524, MACF 8-3) 47% (35% AQ, or 18% if in Pool C)
Keene_St (15-7, 0.576, LEC 8-3) 37% (23% AQ, or 18% if in Pool C)
NE_Wesleyan (16-5, 0.517, IIAC 10-4) 39% (26% AQ, or 17% if in Pool C)
IL_Wesleyan (15-6, 0.554, CCIW 7-5) 25% (10% AQ, or 16% if in Pool C)
VA_Wesleyan (15-7, 0.546, ODAC 8-5) 23% (10% AQ, or 15% if in Pool C)
St_John's_MN (14-6, 0.518, MIAC 10-6) 21% (8% AQ, or 14% if in Pool C)
WI_Eau_Claire (15-6, 0.561, WIAC 6-5) 18% (5% AQ, or 14% if in Pool C)
Albertus_Magnus (17-4, 0.478, GNAC 13-2) 63% (57% AQ, or 13% if in Pool C)
Gwynedd-Mercy (17-5, 0.491, CSAC 11-4) 25% (14% AQ, or 13% if in Pool C)
Brockport_St (17-5, 0.505, SUNYAC 12-3) 37% (28% AQ, or 12% if in Pool C)
Staten_Island (19-5, 0.490, CUNYAC 16-0) 68% (64% AQ, or 11% if in Pool C)
E_Connecticut (15-7, 0.563, LEC 9-2) 42% (35% AQ, or 11% if in Pool C)
Randolph_Macon (16-6, 0.517, ODAC 12-1) 40% (33% AQ, or 10% if in Pool C)
Oswego_St (16-5, 0.510, SUNYAC 13-2) 36% (30% AQ, or 9% if in Pool C)
North_Park (15-6, 0.528, CCIW 8-4) 16% (10% AQ, or 7% if in Pool C)
Denison (18-4, 0.465, NCAC 12-3) 21% (16% AQ, or 6% if in Pool C)
NJ_City (18-5, 0.483, NJAC 12-4) 19% (14% AQ, or 6% if in Pool C)
Emory (14-7, 0.545, UAA 5-5) 6% (0% AQ, or 6% if in Pool C)
Moravian (14-6, 0.516, LAND 8-3) 15% (11% AQ, or 5% if in Pool C)
Catholic (15-7, 0.558, LAND 7-4) 10% (6% AQ, or 5% if in Pool C)
Thomas_More (14-6, 0.508, PAC 12-3) 33% (31% AQ, or 4% if in Pool C)
Anderson_IN (15-6, 0.496, HCAC 12-3) 19% (15% AQ, or 4% if in Pool C)
Medaille (16-5, 0.477, AMCC 13-2) 53% (52% AQ, or 3% if in Pool C)
Skidmore (16-6, 0.508, LL 11-2) 38% (36% AQ, or 3% if in Pool C)
Roger_Williams (18-4, 0.462, CCC 12-3) 31% (29% AQ, or 3% if in Pool C)
Ohio_Northern (15-7, 0.538, OAC 13-2) 29% (26% AQ, or 3% if in Pool C)
Nichols (17-5, 0.472, CCC 12-3) 36% (34% AQ, or 2% if in Pool C)
Bethel_MN (15-6, 0.495, MIAC 12-5) 18% (16% AQ, or 2% if in Pool C)
Hamilton (15-7, 0.536, NESCAC 4-5) 4% (2% AQ, or 2% if in Pool C)

Regarding C-M-S, etc., I have a progressive penalty for low SOS (starting at .520), but it may not be strong enough.  However, some teams' SOS can rise substantially by making the final of their conference tournaments (for example, Denison could get their SOS up to nearly .500)

[KnightSlappy]

Looks like Claremont-Mudd-Scripps could get their SOS above .500 through the conference tournament. It won't be super high, though, so they'll have to probably win until the SCIAC final if they want a decent shot at Pool C.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Looks like Claremont-Mudd-Scripps could get their SOS above .500 through the conference tournament. It won't be super high, though, so they'll have to probably win until the SCIAC final if they want a decent shot at Pool C.

Could they? Their first and maybe second games will be to below .500 teams, right?

And I think even hovering around .500 is dangerous for a team... though, it MIGHT give them a chance.

[fantastic50]

Looks like Claremont-Mudd-Scripps could get their SOS above .500 through the conference tournament. It won't be super high, though, so they'll have to probably win until the SCIAC final if they want a decent shot at Pool C.

Could they? Their first and maybe second games will be to below .500 teams, right?

And I think even hovering around .500 is dangerous for a team... though, it MIGHT give them a chance.

I am showing a median SOS (after the conference tournament) of .487 for C-M-S, and as high as .502 in rare cases.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The focus of Division III basketball now turns towards the second Regional Rankings. At the same time, conference regular seasons are wrapping up and the pressure of conference tournaments is increasing.

Teams are still trying to jockey themselves for the chance to keep playing in March, but sometimes focusing on March causes teams to lose focus of the next game. Upsets and trip-ups seem to happen often once Regional Rankings start coming out.

On Sunday night's Hoopsville, Dave chats with teams who are hoping to remain on top of their conference standings and thus eventually punch their ticket automatically to the NCAA tournament. But what about the distractions? What about the pressures? Or has it become somewhat routine for some teams?

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio starting at 7:00 PM ET LIVE. You can watch the show on the official show page here: http://www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2016-17/feb12 ... or you can watch the live simulcast on Facebook Live. If you miss the show, you can catch-up on Demand or listen to the podcasts (which will be uploaded at the conclusion of the show).

A reminder the Sunday edition of Hoopsville primarily covers the Northeast, Atlantic, South, and Central regions, but we will answer any questions about all of Division III throughout the show. You can also send your questions to the show and have them featured on the Hoopsville Mailbag segment. Email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com.

And please consider helping Hoopsville stay on the air like you might help your public television station. The annual fundraising campaign has less than three weeks remaining, but we are no where close to reaching our goal. Click here for more information: Hoopsville Fundraising Page

Guests include (in order of appearance):
- Mark Edwards, No. 5 Washington Univ. men's coach
- Mitch Oliver, Albertus Magnus men's coach
- Judy Blinstrub, Babson women's coach (WBCA Center Court)
- Darrin Travillian, Maryville (Tenn.) women's coach
- Eric McNelley, Eastern men's coach

You can also tune into the podcast(s) after the show has aired:
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[Titan Q]

For fun I put together a Pool C list through games of Saturday, Feb. 11.  A few notes...

* All data is from KnightSlappy's (Matt Snyder) tremendous work - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

* I did this quickly and did not do any checking of which teams are currently Pool A candidates vs C...I just used Matt's designations.  Please let me know if I am missing teams that are currently Pool C candidates, or including teams that should be in Pool A right now. 

* I ignored Matthew's RPI and ranked the teams in my typical "subjective" fashion, balancing the 3 data points as best as possible.

Top Pool C candidates through 2/11 play
1. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC), .870/.610/8-2
2. UW-Whitewater (CE/WIAC), .857/.585/7-2
3. Amherst (NE/NESCAC), .739/.596/6-4
4. Rochester (E/UAA), .905/.522/2-1
5. Whitworth (W/NWC), .870/.535/1-2
6. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC), .792/.560/5-3
7. Salisbury (MA/CAC), .826/.537/3-3

Safely in through 2/11 play
8. UW-Eau Claire (CE/WIAC), .727/.557/3-1
9. John Carroll (GL/OAC), .727/.572/2-5
10. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW), .727/.557/3-4
11. St. Thomas (W/MIAA), .773/.533/2-1
12. Hardin-Simmons (S/ASC), .727/.554/2-1
13. Scranton (MA/LAND), .739/.526/3-2

The Bubble through 2/11 play
14. Williams (NE/NESCAC), .696/.580/5-4
15. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC), .818/.514/2-0
16. MIT (NE/NEWMAC), .783/.535/0-3

Bottom 5 spots always reserved for major upsets, sending presumed Pool As to Cs above (these 5 teams assumed out)
17. Mass-Dartmouth (NE/LEC), .696/.561/4-2
18. Catholic (MA/LAND), .696/.557/2-5
19. Brockport (E/SUNYAC), .783/.512/3-2
20. Carthage (CE/CCIW), .667/.569/3-4
21. Wooster (GL/NCAC), .696/.544/3-5


Just a quick exercise to get some context on where things are right now.  Note, teams can and will move up and down this list (and in and out) in the final weeks of the season.  This is just a snapshot as of today.

[warriorcat]

You can switch Tufts from pool C to pool A.  Middlebury is not the NESCAC pool A. Tufts has the # 1 seed going into their tournament.

[Titan Q]

You can switch Tufts from pool C to pool A.  Middlebury is not the NESCAC pool A. Tufts has the # 1 seed going into their tournament.

Done.

[fantastic50]

To go along with Titan Q's picks for Pool C, here are mine, also through Sunday's games.  These picks are based on simulations of the rest of the regular season and conference tournaments, using scores & schedules from Ken Massey's site.  In each conference, I am picking the most likely AQ team (not necessarily the current leader) as the Pool A qualifier.  The teams listed below are those that are most likely to get a Pool C berth assuming that they do not win their conference. 

Team (W-L, conf., SOS, vRRO, rank) Berth prob (AQ prob, Pool C prob if not AQ), prob. if losing only conference final, losing out

Very solid
1) Middlebury (20-3, 8-2 NESCAC, 0.611, 8-2 vRRO, NE#2) 100% (36% AQ or 100% C), 100% if CF, 100% if lose out
2) Amherst (17-6, 7-3 NESCAC, 0.601, 6-4 vRRO, NE#3) 99% (11% AQ or 99% C), 100% if CF, 100% if lose out
3) Rochester_NY (19-2, 8-2 UAA, 0.526, 2-1 vRRO, EA#1) 99% (7% AQ or 99% C), 100% if CF, 94% if lose out
4) Wesleyan_CT (19-5, 6-4 NESCAC, 0.561, 5-3 vRRO, NE#5) 99% (17% AQ or 99% C), 100% if CF, 98% if lose out
5) Whitworth (20-3, 11-3 NWC, 0.535, 1-2 vRRO, WE#2) 99% (23% AQ or 99% C), 100% if CF, 84% if lose out
6) WI_Whitewater (18-4, 8-4 WIAC, 0.566, 1-3 vRRO, CE#3) 99% (25% AQ or 99% C), 100% if CF, 88% if lose out
7) Salisbury_St (19-4, 14-2 CAC, 0.540, 3-3 vRRO, MA#3) 99% (25% AQ or 98% C), 100% if CF, 61% if lose out

Looking good for now
8) John_Carroll (16-6, 13-3 OAC, 0.570, 2-5 vRRO, GL#5) 92% (35% AQ or 88% C), 100% if CF
9) MIT (18-5, 10-2 NEWMAC, 0.539, 0-3 vRRO, NE#9) 86% (18% AQ or 82% C), 98% if CF, 4% if lose out
10) Williams (16-7, 4-5 NESCAC, 0.582, 5-4 vRRO, NE#6) 72% (6% AQ or 70% C), 100% if CF
11) Endicott (18-5, 13-3 CCC, 0.516, 1-1 vRRO, NE) 77% (34% AQ or 65% C), 85% if CF

Bubble-in for now, hoping not too many upsets in conference tournaments
12) Mt_St_Joseph (17-4, 13-3 HCAC, 0.512, 2-0 vRRO, GL#3) 72% (32% AQ or 59% C), 92% if CF, 1% if lose out
13) MA_Dartmouth (16-7, 9-3 LEC, 0.565, 4-2 vRRO, NE#8) 69% (38% AQ or 50% C), 87% if CF
14) Hardin-Simmons (17-6, 6-2 ASC, 0.553, 2-1 vRRO, SO#3) 61% (25% AQ or 48% C), 95% if CF, 4% if lose out
15) Cabrini (17-4, 13-2 CSAC, 0.519, 1-2 vRRO, AT#3) 58% (28% AQ or 42% C), 88% if CF
16) IL_Wesleyan (16-6, 8-5 CCIW, 0.558, 3-4 vRRO, CE#8) 55% (23% AQ or 41% C), 100% if CF
17) Le_Tourneau (18-4, 9-1 ASC, 0.491, 1-1 vRRO, SO#5) 50% (25% AQ or 34% C), 63% if CF, 3% if lose out

Bubble-out for now, after bid thieves in conference tournaments
18) Pomona_Pitzer (12-5, 9-4 SCIAC, 0.533, 1-1 vRRO, WE) 39% (15% AQ or 28% C), 85% if CF
19) Brockport_St (18-5, 13-3 SUNYAC, 0.512, 3-2 vRRO, EA#5) 52% (35% AQ or 26% C), 54% if CF
20) Scranton (17-6, 9-3 LAND, 0.531, 3-2 vRRO, MA#6) 42% (23% AQ or 25% C), 74% if CF
21) Wooster (16-7, 13-3 NCAC, 0.543, 3-5 vRRO, GL#6) 41% (24% AQ or 22% C), 68% if CF

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I was looking at it today and I suspect if Trinity were to beat Williams in the NESCAC final, we'd end up with 6 teams from one conference.

[Titan Q]

I was looking at it today and I suspect if Trinity were to beat Williams in the NESCAC final, we'd end up with 6 teams from one conference.

I'm pretty sure the national committee would not let that happen.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I was looking at it today and I suspect if Trinity were to beat Williams in the NESCAC final, we'd end up with 6 teams from one conference.

I'm pretty sure the national committee would not let that happen.

They got five one year, right?  If the numbers back it up, who knows?

[fantastic50]

I was looking at it today and I suspect if Trinity were to beat Williams in the NESCAC final, we'd end up with 6 teams from one conference.

It would be interesting to see what the committee did in that situation.  In simulations, I'm getting exactly five most of the time, but sometimes only four (especially if Williams loses in the first round) and occasionally six with a surprise winner and Williams making the final or at least semis.