Pool C

[iwumichigander]

Thanks KS!

[Titan Q]

My Saturday morning take on Pool C...

(All data courtesy of Matt Snyder, aka KnighSlappy - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.)

Comfortably In
1. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC), .875/.603/8-2
2. Rochester (E/UAA), .913/.532/3-1
3. Tufts (NE/NESCAC), .792/.561/4-4
4. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC), .792/.559/5-3
5. Amherst (NE/NESCAC), .739/.595/6-4
6. UW-Whitewater (C/WIAC), .783/.565/1-3
7. Whitworth (W/NWC), .875/.530/1-2
8. UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC), .739/.566/4-1
9. Salisbury (MA/CAC), .792/.537/3-3
10. Scranton (MA/LAND), .750/.535/4-2
11. St. Lawrence (E/LL), .800/.523/1-4
12. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC), .783/.523/2-1
13. John Carroll (GL/OAC), .739/.567/2-5

The Bubble - Pick 3; 5 of these teams projected out due to expected Pool A upsets
14. Williams (NE/NESCAC), .708/.583/6-4
15. St. Thomas (W/MIAC), .750/.524/2-1
16. Illinois Wesleyan (C/CCIW), .696/.555/3-4
----------
17. Catholic (MA/LAND), .708/.543/2-5
18. Brockport (E/SUNYAC), .750/.515/3-3
19. Guilford (S/ODAC), .792/.505/2-1
20. Concordia TX (S/ASC), .714/.546/1-3
21. Wooster (GL/NCAC), .708/.533/3-5

Out at this point
22. Cortland (E/SUNYAC), .708/.530/3-4
23. Emory (S/UAA), .696/.540/2-3
24. MIT (NE/NEWMAC), .792/.526/0-3
25. Cabrini (AT/CSAC), .783/.517/1-3
26. Carthage (C/CCIW), .682/.569/3-4
27. Pomona-Pitzer (W/SCIAC), .722/.526/1-1
28. North Park (C/CCIW, .696/.525/3-0
29. Keene State (NE/LEC), .667/.576/3-3


Please let me know if I any glaring mistakes stick out (missing C candidates, teams that should be As not Cs, etc.)

[Mr. Ypsi]

Most of the teams can move up one notch, since one of the five NESCAC teams will almost certainly be the AQ (though it is not clear which one).

[Onward on, John Carroll]

John Carroll loses its regular season finale. Likely need an OAC championship game appearance to be safe again. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Amherst is our first team officially in the Pool C mix; they dropped a first round game to Williams today.

[Greek Tragedy]

Most of the teams can move up one notch, since one of the five NESCAC teams will almost certainly be the AQ (though it is not clear which one).

Won't they move down? Williams wasn't getting a Pool C, so if they win, won't one of the others steal a spot?

[Titan Q]

Most of the teams can move up one notch, since one of the five NESCAC teams will almost certainly be the AQ (though it is not clear which one).

Won't they move down? Williams wasn't getting a Pool C, so if they win, won't one of the others steal a spot?

I had 5 NESCAC teams in my Pool C list as of this morning (Middlebury, Tufts, Wesleyan, Amherst, Williams).  Chuck's point is that 1 of the 5 is likely to get the Pool A. After today's play, the NESCAC semifinals are now Tufts/Williams and Middlebury/Trinity.  So if, say, Middlebury wins the Pool A, they come out of Pool C...and my whole list can shift up.

I had Williams on the right side of the Pool C bubble as of this morning, and in better position after the win today.  Seems to me like Amherst and Wesleyan are both safe in Pool C.

[nescac1]

I have to think Williams with a win at Tufts locks down a Pool C.  I realize I'm biased but I can't see why Amherst is worthy of a Pool C bid over Williams after today.  Williams played a much tougher schedule (Amherst loaded up on home games), will have at least one more win, and has more big wins than the Jeffs.  Plus Williams has peaked late in the year including a big road playoff win vs Amherst, while Amherst has stumbled.  I would think that Williams would sneak past Amherst in the Nee England rankings after today.  If so, wouldn't they likely be ahead of them for Pool C consideration?

[Titan Q]

I have to think Williams with a win at Tufts locks down a Pool C.  I realize I'm biased but I can't see why Amherst is worthy of a Pool C bid over Williams after today.  Williams played a much tougher schedule (Amherst loaded up on home games), will have at least one more win, and has more big wins than the Jeffs.  Plus Williams has peaked late in the year including a big road playoff win vs Amherst, while Amherst has stumbled.  I would think that Williams would sneak past Amherst in the Nee England rankings after today.  If so, wouldn't they likely be ahead of them for Pool C consideration?

Yes, if Williams ends up regionally ranked ahead of Amherst they will be considered before Amherst in the Pool C process.

In the second regional rankings, Amherst was 5th in the NE and Williams 7th - http://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2017/02/men-regional-rankings-second. The numbers were:
  * Amherst: .739/.595/6-4 (2-0 vs Williams)
  * Williams: .708/.583/6-4 (0-2 vs Amherst)

Easy call to have Amherst ranked ahead of Williams in ranking #2.

After today Amherst falls to .708 while Williams improves to .720 - and Williams picks up a win on Amherst. Ranking #3 could have a flip...probably 50/50. Amherst being 2-1 vs Williams could keep things where they are.

But from here in terms of Pool C, Williams can finish either .692 (with a loss in NESCAC semi) or .704 (with 1-1).  And again, Amherst is finished at .708.  As Pool C candidates, I see Amherst ending up ranked higher in the NE region and thus, being considered in the process first.

[Bucket]

I have to think Williams with a win at Tufts locks down a Pool C.  I realize I'm biased but I can't see why Amherst is worthy of a Pool C bid over Williams after today.  Williams played a much tougher schedule (Amherst loaded up on home games), will have at least one more win, and has more big wins than the Jeffs.  Plus Williams has peaked late in the year including a big road playoff win vs Amherst, while Amherst has stumbled.  I would think that Williams would sneak past Amherst in the Nee England rankings after today.  If so, wouldn't they likely be ahead of them for Pool C consideration?

I would think that Williams will jump over Amherst in the regional rankings this week, but by how much? Let's say they're one spot ahead of Amherst and then lose next weekend. Do they then slip below the idle formerly known as Lord Jeffs? Who are idle because they lost to Williams!!?? I'd hate to see that, but I do think it's within the realm of possibility.

For what it's worth, I think Williams deserves to be in ahead of Amherst, so I'm hoping they get ranked ahead of them and stay there. And, as I've said before, I think the 5 NESCAC teams are deserving of tournament play. But if it is to be four, it should be Williams over Amherst.

Now, if Trinity were to win the tournament, then a team falls, I think. I don't see the NESCAC getting 6. So that would be the lowest-ranked NESCAC team regionally, which should be Amherst, but that's not a given.

And to your initial point: I think Williams would move into lock status with a win over Tufts.

[Titan Q]

And to your initial point: I thunk Williams would move into lock status with a win over Tufts.

I don't think any .704 team can be considered a lock heading into the Pool C process.  I think Williams would have a very good chance in that scenario...but lock is too strong.

[Bucket]

And to your initial point: I thunk Williams would move into lock status with a win over Tufts.

I don't think any .704 team can be considered a lock heading into the Pool C process.  I think Williams would have a very good chance in that scenario...but lock is too strong.

Agreed. Your terminology of "comfortably in" would be better based on a win over Tufts for the Ephs, but probably toward the bottom of that list.

[Titan Q]

And to your initial point: I thunk Williams would move into lock status with a win over Tufts.

I don't think any .704 team can be considered a lock heading into the Pool C process.  I think Williams would have a very good chance in that scenario...but lock is too strong.

Agreed. Your terminology of "comfortably in" would be better based on a win over Tufts for the Ephs, but probably toward the bottom of that list.

I'd have to look at things before the actual Pool C process, but seems to me like .704 would always be in the bubble group...even if at the very top of that bubble list.

[nescac1]

It seems crazy to me that a loss on the road to a top-three team in the region in what is an extra game, while Amherst is sitting at home, might cause the Ephs to slip behind Amherst, who Williams had just beaten.  Yes Amherst would have a higher win percentage (barely) but also while playing two fewer games, which is significant too.  In all events hope the Ephs moot the issue by winning out!!!!

[Titan Q]

It seems crazy to me that a loss on the road to a top-three team in the region in what is an extra game, while Amherst is sitting at home, might cause the Ephs to slip behind Amherst, who Williams had just beaten.  Yes Amherst would have a higher win percentage (barely) but also while playing two fewer games, which is significant too.  In all events hope the Ephs moot the issue by winning out!!!!

It just all comes down to final resumes.  You play until you are eliminated and then they stack up your final numbers (WP, SOS, RRO, and a few other factors like head-to-head, etc).

Seems to me like Amherst will have better Pool C numbers than Williams (if Williams ends up a Pool C candidate).