Pool C

[gordonmann]

TCNJ lost too, but you have to go waaaaaaay down the list to get to them.

[Greek Tragedy]

In addition to must-win games for bubble or bubble-wannabee teams tonight (Wooster, John Carroll, Cal Lutheran, North Park, TCNJ, Carthage, IWU), we also have our first potential bid thief (or bubble-burster) game, with Ramapo (which looks safely in) hosting Rowan.

IWU won, but still didn't get a CCIW tourney bid. I think they're out of the Pool C running.

[fantastic50]

In addition to must-win games for bubble or bubble-wannabee teams tonight (Wooster, John Carroll, Cal Lutheran, North Park, TCNJ, Carthage, IWU), we also have our first potential bid thief (or bubble-burster) game, with Ramapo (which looks safely in) hosting Rowan.

IWU won, but still didn't get a CCIW tourney bid. I think they're out of the Pool C running.

Despite the lack of a conference tourney bid and a sub-.700 WP (plus likely staying outside of the regional rankings, later today), I'm still not ready to completely write off IWU.  If the regional rankings go the way I anticipate, then the Titans would have 6 wins vRRO, together with a .558 SOS.  If we have a soft bubble (which appears to be the case, thus far), and some lower-ranked Central region teams struggle this week, it's not out of the question that IWU could go from unranked to a very late Pool C selection.

[D3ball1845]

Roger Williams also lost last night in the first round, although they were categorized in the "real long shot" for an at-large bid.

[Pat Coleman]

We had a year in baseball, I believe, where a team did not make the four-team NESCAC tournament but still made the NCAA playoffs.

[iwumichigander]

In addition to must-win games for bubble or bubble-wannabee teams tonight (Wooster, John Carroll, Cal Lutheran, North Park, TCNJ, Carthage, IWU), we also have our first potential bid thief (or bubble-burster) game, with Ramapo (which looks safely in) hosting Rowan.

IWU won, but still didn't get a CCIW tourney bid. I think they're out of the Pool C running.

Despite the lack of a conference tourney bid and a sub-.700 WP (plus likely staying outside of the regional rankings, later today), I'm still not ready to completely write off IWU.  If the regional rankings go the way I anticipate, then the Titans would have 6 wins vRRO, together with a .558 SOS.  If we have a soft bubble (which appears to be the case, thus far), and some lower-ranked Central region teams struggle this week, it's not out of the question that IWU could go from unranked to a very late Pool C selection.

IMHO, my Titans need a little help from others on the form of the ball bouncing the wrong way to be on a soft  bubble.  The "turnovers" need to come from at least two places. 
First, one or two tumbles with the Central which could move them up into the final rankings - say 7/6.  Also means,  central teams would have to come off Pool C quickly to move IWU up into early discussion.
Second, a couple of whoops regions that do not involve potential AQs, in other words, Pool C bubbles that burst whose replacements criteria just do not quite measure up.

[gordonmann]

We had a year in baseball, I believe, where a team did not make the four-team NESCAC tournament but still made the NCAA playoffs.

And that team was Trinity! Go Clucks!

[fantastic50]

Found a coding issue that is double-counting some conference tournament games.  Will re-post once this is fixed.

[Greek Tragedy]

http://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2017/02/men-regional-rankings-third

[fantastic50]

I re-ran and edited my above posts after the regional rankings came out.  Those rankings had the effect of knocking out some fringe teams (IWU, for example, which was ranked behind a nine-loss UW-Oshkosh team)

Tonight's only bubble-related games involve two teams that are currently in good shape, and one that needs an upset to have any bubble chance.
Gwynedd Mercy (20-6, 0.486, 0-5) at Cabrini (19-5, 0.523, 2-3 vRRO, AT#4) 90%/73%
Union (NY) (14-9, 0.526, 0-6) at St Lawrence (19-5, 0.519, 3-4 vRRO, EA#4) 97%/81%
Susquehanna (20-4, 0.551, 4-3 vRRO, MA#2) (already safe) at Moravian (17-6, 0.511, 4-4 vRRO, MA#8) 13%/0%

Bubble teams also want to see strong teams Lycoming, Neumann, and Skidmore win tonight, to avoid any of those conference favorites taking up Pool C berths.

[Titan Q]

I re-ran and edited my above posts after the regional rankings came out.  Those rankings had the effect of knocking out some fringe teams (IWU, for example, which was ranked behind a nine-loss UW-Oshkosh team)

Remember, that data was through Sunday.

[fantastic50]

I re-ran and edited my above posts after the regional rankings came out.  Those rankings had the effect of knocking out some fringe teams (IWU, for example, which was ranked behind a nine-loss UW-Oshkosh team)

Remember, that data was through Sunday.

Right, but if the committee put IWU, St. Norbert, etc. behind a team with a .640 WP (even with a high WP & 4 wins vRRO), then I think that makes a statement.

[sac]

This is the data used for this weeks Central Region poll

Oshkosh  .640/.588/4-5
NP     .708/.532/4-2  (presumed NP is ahead of IWU but maybe not)
IWU   .667/.555/5-2

IWU has certainly closed whatever gaps there were here,  IWU now presents .680/.555/6-2   (SOS might go up or down a few pts).  Between IWU/Oshkosh there is no head-to-head, in common opponents there is only Augustana.  Oshkosh lost to Augie, IWU went 1-1 but has a really convincing 30 point win as the most recent result.

All that matters for IWU is getting to the table, they at least gave themselves a chance, even if it isn't a very good one.  Oshkosh actually doesn't matter a whole lot to them, if Oshkosh wins out they get the AQ and thus irrelevant to IWU, IF Oshkosh loses Fri you'd think IWU would move in front of them, it gets more tricky to do that if Oshkosh makes the WIAC championship game.

Very important to IWU is that the 3 CCIW's presumably ahead of them Augustana, Carthage, North Park all have to log at least 2 losses between them with 1 possibly getting the AQ and being irrelevant to IWU's C chances.  An extra bonus is that all 3 could lose.  Whatever the case the last few ranking spots of the Central Region are really tight.

Its also a real sticking point that IWU has two losses to North Park, would be hard to place IWU ahead of them


IMO  .680/.555/6-2 is last team into the field kind of numbers, and right now I just don't think Pool C is going to go that deep even with the 2 extra slots this year.  There are going to be 2 or 3 other teams with slightly better criteria at 8 losses than IWU, and they might not get in either.

[Greek Tragedy]

I think it's wishful thinking that IWU gets in. I mean, I've been saying all along that Eau Claire is probably in and Dave disagrees with me there and the Blugolds have been ahead of IWU in all 3 rankings.

[Titan Q]

Its also a real sticking point that IWU has two losses to North Park, would be hard to place IWU ahead of them

Worth noting that IWU was ranked ahead of North Park in Week 2 when NPU already had a sweep over IWU.  IWU was 6th in the Central and NPU was not ranked.

http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank

The data was:
* IWU: .667/.555/5-2
* North Park: .708/.532/4-2

Per Matt Snyder's updated data - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/ - the current numbers are:

* IWU: .680/.557/6-2
* North Park: .720/.524/4-2

In week 2 NPU had a better WP by .041; currently the difference is .040. IWU has a bigger SOS lead now vs Week 2, and a little better RRO.  So if IWU was ranked higher in week 2, should they be ranked higher now? Who knows.

To be clear, I believe IWU is a real longshot in this process due to winning % -- but just simply pointing out that head-to-head isn't always a difference maker.  Consider the situation in the CCIW where, for example, Carthage swept North Park, North Park swept IWU, and IWU swept Carthage.  Hard to resolve all of that.

Several years ago (2007-08 I believe), IWU was 3-0 vs Wheaton, but Wheaton ended up regionally ranked higher in the final poll because their overall resume was better (they clearly had the better Pool C case). Wheaton got in, IWU did not.

Head-to-head is definitely very important but it is just one data point.