Pool C

[Greek Tragedy]

Emory gets the win over Rochester, 62-62.

Is the UAA a three bid league now?

Ties go to the home team?     

63-62 Emory.

I think Emory gets in.

[WUPHF]

Yikes!  If there is any league that would offer a tie, it would probably be the UAA.  63-62 Emory.

[fantastic50]

Yes, three for the UAA, so one less for some other league.

[Titan Q]

Agree that Emory is in.

[fantastic50]

And Williams upset of Tufts likely gets five NESCAC teams in, as Amherst seems fairly safe to me.

[Greek Tragedy]

And Williams upset of Tufts likely gets five NESCAC teams in, as Amherst seems fairly safe to me.

I don't know how close Amherst and Williams were going into this week, but I would imagine that Williams would leapfrog Amherst after their win over them. I think Williams was in based on that and not their win today.

[nescac1]

Williams almost certainly jumped over Amherst today.  I wonder if they jumped over Wesleyan and Tufts as well.  They certainly will with a  win tomorrow, but I think the Ephs are probably at worst fourth (after Babson, Midd, and maybe Tufts) in New England even with a loss.  Quite a late-season turnaround for the Ephs.  The Ephs' now have a pretty impressive array of wins they can point to: at Tufts, at Amherst, Wesleyan, Midd, Hope on a neutral court, at Bates, SUNY Oneonta (about to play in its conference final), at Union (also about to play in its conference tourney final), Eastern Conn on a neutral court.  I'd say when all is said and done they will now have seven wins vs. regionally-ranked opponents (assuming Oneonta moves into regional the rankings, which appears likely), with, likely, a chance for an eighth no matter who they play tomorrow. 

[KnightSlappy]

Agree that Emory is in.

Not only is Emory likely in, they have a very good shot to host. They'll probably remain in one of the top two slots in the South and they're the only host-like location LaGrange can get to within 500 miles (I could be missing something).

Emory, LaGrange, Hanover, SAA Champ would be a reasonable pod. Might kinda suck for Hanover though. They could deserve a pod of their own.

A non-Hanover (and non-Manchester) HCAC champ could get to Emory as well. So could Thomas More if they win the PAC. But you'd really need Hanover there to keep that pod from being too light.

EDIT: I forgot the ODAC! Either Guilford or Emory & Henry could get to Emory, so maybe not a need for Hanover.

[fantastic50]

Packed house at Ohio Wesleyan's Branch Rickey arena, about two-thirds from Wooster. Vocal OWU students chanted the name of Wooster senior Dan Fanelly early in the game, trying to get into his head. Wooster built a 20-point lead in the second half, but OWU roared back to within one point, and had a potential game-winning three-point attempt in the closing seconds. Fanelly was named tournament MVP. With that shot not dropping, Wooster won, saving a Pool C berth. It was coach Steve Moore's 800th win, 2nd all-time in D3, and means Wooster's NCAA tournament steak will reach 15 consecutive years.

[woolax]

Does OWU get an at large bid?

[Titan Q]

Does OWU get an at large bid?

OWU's numbers look something like this - .750/.509/2-4

Here is my bubble list from earlier...
-----
Tier 3 - The Bubble/At the mercy of upsets
16. UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC): .680/.570/3-4   done
17. llinois Wesleyan (C/CCIW): .680/.556/6-2   done
18. Brockport (E/SUYAC): .731/.523/2-3   done
19. St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .731/.529/1-2   done
20. Guilford (S/ODAC): .808/.501/3-2   vs Virginia Wesleyan, ODAC semis
21. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC): .792/.511/2-1   vs Manchester, HCAC semis

Projected Out
22. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .760/.539/0-4  at WPI, NEWMAC semis
23. John Carroll (GL/OAC): .680/.560/2-5   done
24. Carthage (C/CCIW): .680/.552/2-2   done
25. Concordia TX (S/ASC): .708/.550/1-4   done
26. Emory (S/UAA): .708/.539/1-3   vs Rochester
27. UW-Oshkosh (C/WIAC): .654/.592/5-5   at UW-River Falls, WIAC final
28. North Park (C/CCIW: .692/.532/2-3   done
29. Loras (W/IIAC): .692/.547/1-1  done
30. St. Norbert (C/MWC): .792/.504/1-2   done
31. LeTourneau (S/ASC): .833/.496/2-1   vs Hardin-Simmons, ASC final
-----


I don't see any way Ohio Wesleyan gets a Pool C.  First, they will be behind two other Great Lakes teams who are right on the end up the bubble (MSJ and JCU) - it's not likely OWU will even get to the table.  Second, if they do get to the table and Illinois Wesleyan is there, IWU won at OWU.

I think OWU is out.

[Titan Q]

The Wooster win at Ohio Wesleyan in the NCAC final was the rare reverse bubble burster.  Wooster would have been a Pool C lock and now they come off the board...and OWU probably doesn't have a chance.

[realist]

MIAA final  Calvin 86  Hope 83

[fantastic50]

Today's bubble games
Percentages are Pool-C-bid-if-needed probabilities with win/loss today
12:00 Rochester (21-3, 0.532, 4-1, EA#1, lock) at Emory (17-7, 0.544, 1-3, SO#2) 92%/4%
1:00 VA Wesleyan (19-8, 0.528, 1-6) vs Guilford (21-5, 0.504, 3-2, SO#3) 70%/33%
7:00 Mt St Joseph (18-5, 0.509, 2-1, GL#4) 69%/30% vs Manchester (10-15, 0.504, 0-4)
7:30 MIT (19-6, 0.544, 0-4, NE#7) 48%/17% vs WPI (17-8, 0.536, 2-5)

Potential "bid thief" games
If these go the "wrong way", highly-ranked teams will drop into Pool C.  Bubble teams want the bold-ed teams to win these.
2:00 Gwynedd Mercy (21-6, 0.496, 1-5, AT) at Neumann (24-2, 0.508, 6-0, AT#1)
3:00 Wheaton (MA) (11-15, 0.512, 0-4, NE) at Babson (24-1, 0.578, 4-1, NE#1)
4:00 Moravian (18-6, 0.520, 5-4, MA#8) at Scranton (20-6, 0.536, 7-3, MA#5)
4:00 Stevens (18-7, 0.487, 1-2, EA) at St John Fisher (21-5, 0.549, 0-3, EA#2)
4:00 Wooster (20-7, 0.546, 4-5, GL#5) at Ohio Wesleyan (21-6, 0.508, 2-3, GL#8)
4:00 SUNY Oneonta (17-10, 0.536, 4-6, EA) at Oswego State (19-6, 0.526, 3-2, EA#5)
4:00 Trinity (CT) (16-9, 0.564, 2-8, NE) at Middlebury (22-3, 0.612, 6-3, NE#2)
5:00 Albright (13-13, 0.552, 1-4, MA) at Lycoming (21-4, 0.530, 1-1, MA#3)
5:00 Transylvania (16-9, 0.506, 3-2, GL) at Hanover (19-3, 0.519, 2-2, GL#2)
7:00 Dickinson (16-10, 0.522, 0-4, MA) at Swarthmore (21-5, 0.524, 1-1, MA#4)
7:00 Hardin-Simmons (21-6, 0.556, 3-1, SO#1) at LeTourneau (22-4, 0.490, 2-1, SO#5)
7:30 Calvin (15-8, 0.504, 2-3, GL) at Hope (20-4, 0.521, 2-1, GL#3)
7:30 Baldwin-Wallace (15-12, 0.527, 2-6, GL) at Marietta (23-4, 0.578, 4-4, GL#1)
8:00 N Central (IL) (16-9, 0.552, 2-4, CE) at Augustana (19-7, 0.540, 2-2, CE#5)
8:00 UW-Oshkosh (17-9, 0.592, 5-5, CE#8) at UW-River Falls (21-3, 0.590, 7-3, CE#1)

Out of these 15 potential bubble-bursting games, only Hope and Augustana lost (with UW-River Falls tied late). 

[Greek Tragedy]

MIAA final  Calvin 86  Hope 83

Pop!

Wonder if Augie's 1-2 record will be enough to jump Eau Claire's 0-1 this week.