Pool C

[jaybird44]

I would like to see IWU get into the tournament.  I have no animus toward the program.  Quite the contrary.  The Titans are in a unique situation between the criteria and the sentiment that it shouldn't get in the NCAA Tourney because it was out of the running for a spot in the CCIW Tourney.  It will be very interesting how the endgame unfolds.

[Titan Q]

I would like to see IWU get into the tournament.  I have no animus toward the program.  Quite the contrary.  The Titans are in a unique situation between the criteria and the sentiment that it shouldn't get in the NCAA Tourney because it was out of the running for a spot in the CCIW Tourney.  It will be very interesting how the endgame unfolds.

It sounds like the sentiment won out with the Central Region committee.

[jaybird44]

If that's the case, it will be doubly interesting to see how the sentiment is backed (or not) by the criteria.

[bopol]

If I have that Central order right, it will be interesting to see if .630 UW-Oshkosh is considered.  I don't think we've ever seen anything under .667 selected but who knows.  Their SOS and RRO numbers are certainly outstanding.

Oshkosh ahead of Carthage is interesting due to the head to head.

Historically, the only case I can remember with sketchy WP but excellent SOS and RRO was Carthage about 3 years ago and they didn't get in.  It seems like the committee prefers teams with solid SOS (.54 or so) with 7 or 8 losses over teams with great records and sketchy SOS and teams with great SOS and so-so WP.

[fantastic50]

After coming up with my own projected final regional rankings, then reusing them to get new vRRO wins/losses, here's my current bubble analysis...

Safe
C#1) Susquehanna (20-5, 0.559, 5-5, MA#3) (#13/#12) lock, no AQ
C#2) Tufts (20-6, 0.569, 4-3, NE#3) (#15/#13) lock, no AQ
C#3) Rochester (21-4, 0.538, 4-2, EA#1) (#17/#14) lock, no AQ
C#4) Williams (19-8, 0.602, 7-5, NE#4) (#9/#9) lock, no AQ
C#5) Amherst (17-7, 0.602, 5-5, NE#5) (#8/#10) lock, no AQ
C#6) Wesleyan (CT) (19-6, 0.561, 4-3, NE#6) (#21/#17) near-lock, no AQ
C#7) Whitworth (23-4, 0.546, 1-3, WE#2) (#10/#18) lock, no AQ
C#8) UW-Whitewater (20-6, 0.568, 1-3, CE#3) (#16/#20) near-lock, no AQ
C#9) New Jersey City (21-7, 0.534, 6-3, AT#3) (#42/#24) near-lock, no AQ
C#10) Emory (18-7, 0.551, 2-3, SO#2) (#35/#32) near-lock, no AQ
C#11) Hope (20-5, 0.525, 2-1, GL#4) (#32/#25) 97% C
C#12) Salisbury (20-7, 0.548, 3-4, MA#6) (#31/#27) 95% C

I think these next six get in...
C#13) Cabrini (19-6, 0.532, 4-4, AT#4) (#38/#30) 82% C
C#14) Mt St Joseph (19-5, 0.509, 2-2, GL#5) (#51/#41) 80% (27% HCAC or 72% C)
C#15) St Thomas (MN) (19-7, 0.530, 2-2, WE#4) (#56/#40) 71% C
C#16) Skidmore (19-7, 0.525, 5-1, EA#4) (#62/#33) 70% C
C#17) St Lawrence (19-6, 0.524, 3-5, EA#5) (#46/#37) 64% C
C#18) Augustana (19-8, 0.543, 2-3, CE#4) (#50/#42) 58% C

On the table, with 3 berths left
AT#5) TCNJ (18-8, 0.519, 2-4) (#85/#64) 1% C
CE#6) UW-Eau Claire (17-8, 0.571, 3-3) (#30/#39) 61% C
EA#6) Brockport (19-7, 0.522, 2-3) (#64/#47) 32% C
GL#6) John Carroll (17-8, 0.560, 1-4) (#41/#58) 2% C
MA#7) Moravian (18-7, 0.530, 4-5) (#61/#44) 3% C
NE#8) Keene State (19-9, 0.578, 1-3) (#27/#45) 34% C
SO#4) LeTourneau (22-5, 0.499, 3-2) (#54/#48) 57% C
WE#6) Loras (18-8, 0.549, 2-4) (#49/#46) 14% C

Other possibilities who can get to the table
Concordia (TX) (18-7, 0.553, 1-4, SO#5) (#34/#36) 31% C
MIT (20-6, 0.549, 0-3, NE#9) (#23/#38) 70% (21% NEWMAC or 62% C)
Endicott (22-6, 0.523, 1-1, NE#10) (#36/#34) 22% C
Illinois Wesleyan (17-8, 0.557, 6-2, CE#7) (#44/#35) 47% C
UW-Oshkosh (17-10, 0.602, 5-7, CE) (#22/#72) 30% C
Nebraska Wesleyan (17-7, 0.524, 2-2, WE#7) (#73/#49) 28% C

[sac]

MIT is currently leading Babson by 15 at halftime.  That's a fairly important game for the end of Pool C hopefuls.

[Titan Q]

Mount St. Joseph lost to Hanover in the HCAC...maybe on the wrong side of the bubble now.

[KnightSlappy]

Mount St. Joseph lost to Hanover in the HCAC...maybe on the wrong side of the bubble now.

I've been thinking they'd be off too, but they should have one of the best WPs on the board for a while in the second half or final third of the selections. 2-2 RRO won't disqualify them either.

[Gregory Sager]

3. Lastly, CCIW fans, welcome to the world of the MIAC (and probably a lot of other conferences out there)... where good to great teams beat each other up too much in long conference seasons, eventually taking away Pool C births away from each other and handing them to the NESCAC.

Smitty, the CCIW is used to good-to-great teams beating each other up. That happens every season; this isn't the MIAA, where historically only two programs have dominated the circuit. The difference is that this year the CCIW was rather indifferent (by its own lofty standards) in non-conference play. That, plus the fact that the parity at the top really extended down to almost the entire league -- seven teams finished within three games of first place -- is why the CCIW is going to have so much trouble claiming a Pool C berth this season.

Exactly what I said, good-to-great teams beating up on each other. You used my standpoint in your rebuttal.

You said, "welcome to the world of the MIAC (and probably a lot of other conferences out there)... where good to great teams beat each other up too much in long conference seasons," implying that the CCIW wasn't used to good teams beating each other up. My reply is that it happens all the time.

Also, I used it after the word "plus", because my rebuttal is mostly based upon the fact that the CCIW was down this season in terms of non-conference play. That's what's dragging down the league's Pool C chances even more than the parity. Each of the three CCIW co-champions lost non-con games it would later come to regret; North Park lost to Manchester and Illinois Tech; Augie lost to UW-LaCrosse; and Carthage lost at home to a Calvin team that was a real mess before the holidays, after which it turned around. (Carthage also hurt itself by playing a non-D3 team, RMU-Peoria, although I'm not certain if that was intentional or forced upon the Red Men by a late cancellation by another D3 opponent.)

[Greek Tragedy]

Bubble alert, Babson down 1 with 12 seconds to go.

[Titan Q]

My final projection...

(All data courtesy of Matt Snyder - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.)

Tier 1- Projected In/No Drama
1. Babson (NE/NEWMAC): .926/.574/4-1
2. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .731/.592/7-4   
3. Susquehanna (MA/LAND): .800/.556/4-4
4. UW-Whitewater (C/WIAC): .769/.567/3-5
5. Rochester (E/UAA): .840/.534/4-2
6. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .708/.598/5-5
7. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .769/.566/4-4
8. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .760/.560/4-3
9. Whitworth (W/NWC): .852/.544/0-3
10. Salisbury (MA/CAC): .741/.546/3-4

Tier 2- Projected In
11. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .750/.533/5-4
12. Hope (GL/MIAA): .800/.525/2-1
13. Cabrini (AT/CSAC): .760/.531/2-3
14. Emory (S/UAA): .720/.547/2-3
15. Skidmore (E/LL): .731/.527/6-1
16. St. Lawrence (E/LL): .769/.526/3-5

Tier 3- Right Side of the Bubble/Last 5 In
17. Augustana (C/CCIW): .704/.542/2-2
18. Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/3-4
19. UW-Oshkosh: (C/WIAC): .630/.601/5-6
20. Illinois Wesleyan (C/CCIW): .680/.556/4-2
21. LeTourneau (S/ASC): .800/.506/2-2

Tier 4 - Wrong Side of the Bubble/Left at the Table
UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC): .680/.570/3-4
Emory & Henry (S/ODAC): .704/.528/2-3   
Endicott (NE/CCC): .786/.532/1-1
Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC): .769/.510/2-1   
St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .731/.530/1-2
Brockport (E/SUNYAC): .731/.522/2-3
Catholic (MA/LAND): .654/.557/3-7
Rowan (AT/NJAC): .630/.5643-6

Tier 5/Never at the table
Ohio Wesleyan (GL/NCAC): .750/.514/2-4
John Carroll: (GL/OAC): .680/.562/2-5
Carthage (C/CCIW): .680/.553/2-2
Virginia Wesleyan (S/ODAC): .679/..533/1-7
Loras (W/IIAC): .692/.548/1-1
St. Norbert (C/MWC): .792/.504/1-2

[Titan Q]

I will be joining on the Hoopsville special to talk Pool C in a bit.

http://www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2016-17/feb26

[AppletonRocks]

If I have that Central order right, it will be interesting to see if .630 UW-Oshkosh is considered.  I don't think we've ever seen anything under .667 selected but who knows.  Their SOS and RRO numbers are certainly outstanding.

And when the calculators get put away, they are a Top 10 team in the country.  After all, they beat Whitewater twice, not to mention Eau Claire twice as well.  And Shinetime has already taken up temporary residence in Salem. 

[Titan Q]

Hoopsville Selection Sunday Special - Pool C Projections (in progress)
Dave McHugh, Bob Quillman, Ryan Scott

refresh for updates

1st 8 on the board
AT - New Jersey City
C - UW-Whitewater
E - Rochester
GL - Hope
S - Emory
MA - Susquehanna
NE - Babson
W - Whitworth

Hoopsville Projections (in order)
1. Babson (NE)
2. Susquehanna (MA)
3. UWW (C)
4. Rochester (E)
5. Tufts (NE)
6. Williams (NE)
7. Whitworth (W)
8. Wesleyan (NE)
9. New Jersey City (AT)
10. Salisbury (MA)
11. Amherst (NE)

(break)

12. Emory (S)
13. Hope (GL)
14. Skidmore (E)
15. St. Lawrence (E)
16. Cabrini (AT)
17. Augustana (C)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Keene State: .679/.576/3-4
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

18. Keene State (NE)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Endicott: .786/.522/3-4
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

19. Endicott (NE)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Mass-Dartmouth: .630/.549/4-3
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

20. Mount St. Joseph (GL)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Ohio Wesleyan: .750/.514/2-4
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Mass-Dartmouth: .630/.549/4-3
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

21. Ohio Wesleyan (GL)

Left at Table
AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL -
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Mass-Dartmouth: .630/.549/4-3
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

[bopol]

FWIW, here's my Pool C:

1   Babson
2   Whitworth
3   Rochester
4   Susquehanna
5   UW-Whitewater
6   Tufts
7   Wesleyan
8   Amherst
9   Hope
10   Williaams
11   Salisbury
12   Emory
13   Mt.St.Joseph
14   Kenne State
15   UW-Eau Claire
16   New Jersey City
17   Cabrini
18   Skidmore
19   St. Lawrance
20   Endicott
21   Augustana

The last few picks were really tough.