Pool C

[fantastic50]

Visualization of Pool C teams by only WP & SOS... http://imgur.com/a/Rpszi

Two things stand out:
- Only 16 teams are above the 50/50 chance line from the last four years, so it's a very soft bubble, even before expansion of the field.
- UW-Oshkosh's WP is so far below what has been considered in recent years that for them to even be seriously considered for Pool C represents quite a shift in the evaluation.  It would seem to move us closer toward the D1 at-large model where SOS is king, which benefits power conferences, and (at the D3 level) would have a disparate impact by region.

[Gregory Sager]

Thanks, Drew. That visualization is very helpful. I'm debating whether or not to print it out to show it to the NPU coach to illustrate how close the Vikings came. He may not be ready for that yet, though.

[stag44]

is there any chance / outcome that CMS goes anywhere besides up to Whitman?

[fantastic50]

Yes ... if they beat Whitman & Whitworth! 

[KnightSlappy]

is there any chance / outcome that CMS goes anywhere besides up to Whitman?

The only chance is if the NCAA broke from the norm and somehow approved spending more money extra flights. That usually doesn't happen.

[Titan Q]

Hoopsville Selection Sunday Special - Pool C Projections (in progress)
Dave McHugh, Bob Quillman, Ryan Scott

refresh for updates

1st 8 on the board
AT - New Jersey City
C - UW-Whitewater
E - Rochester
GL - Hope
S - Emory
MA - Susquehanna
NE - Babson
W - Whitworth

Hoopsville Projections (in order)
1. Babson (NE)
2. Susquehanna (MA)
3. UWW (C)
4. Rochester (E)
5. Tufts (NE)
6. Williams (NE)
7. Whitworth (W)
8. Wesleyan (NE)
9. New Jersey City (AT)
10. Salisbury (MA)
11. Amherst (NE)

(break)

12. Emory (S)
13. Hope (GL)
14. Skidmore (E)
15. St. Lawrence (E)
16. Cabrini (AT)
17. Augustana (C)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Keene State: .679/.576/3-4
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

18. Keene State (NE)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Endicott: .786/.522/3-4
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

19. Endicott (NE)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Mass-Dartmouth: .630/.549/4-3
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

20. Mount St. Joseph (GL)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Ohio Wesleyan: .750/.514/2-4
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Mass-Dartmouth: .630/.549/4-3
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

21. Ohio Wesleyan (GL)

Left at Table
AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL -
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Mass-Dartmouth: .630/.549/4-3
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

Looks like 19 of 21.  In our #20 and 21 spots we had Mount St. Joseph and Ohio Wesleyan...committee picked UW-Oshkosh and St. Thomas.

[fantastic50]

19 each for Bob, for bopol, for the d3h panel, and for me.

[sac]

Visualization of Pool C teams by only WP & SOS... http://imgur.com/a/Rpszi

Two things stand out:
- Only 16 teams are above the 50/50 chance line from the last four years, so it's a very soft bubble, even before expansion of the field.
- UW-Oshkosh's WP is so far below what has been considered in recent years that for them to even be seriously considered for Pool C represents quite a shift in the evaluation.  It would seem to move us closer toward the D1 at-large model where SOS is king, which benefits power conferences, and (at the D3 level) would have a disparate impact by region.

Do you have this for all Pool C selections for the last few years.  Just to see how far outside the norm UWO would be.

[nescac1]

Seems like there were fewer-than-usual conference upsets featuring Pool C locks this year, and hence the committee went far deeper into the Pool C candidate group than usual.  Is that right?

The only bid-thiefs (teams that would not have made it but for winning a league title while knocking off a Pool C candidate in the process) among conference tourny champs that I count are:

Nichols
Union
Calvin
Bethel


I think that's it.  Four has to be on the very low end for bid thiefs, right? 

With so few bid thiefs, and so much parity this year in particular, I think we will see a very competitive first two rounds.  There will be some blowouts, but also some real surprises.  And picking the Final Four looks really, really tough -- each quarter has at least 3-4 candidates who are hard to separate from one another.  Middlebury probably has the clearest path but there are plenty of potential roadblocks even for the Panthers.  Whitman/Marietta also look well-positioned in their bracket, especially Whitman. 

[kiko]

Seems like there were fewer-than-usual conference upsets featuring Pool C locks this year, and hence the committee went far deeper into the Pool C candidate group than usual.  Is that right?

The only bid-thiefs (teams that would not have made it but for winning a league title while knocking off a Pool C candidate in the process) among conference tourny champs that I count are:

Nichols
Union
Calvin
Bethel


I think that's it.  Four has to be on the very low end for bid thiefs, right? 

With so few bid thiefs, and so much parity this year in particular, I think we will see a very competitive first two rounds.  There will be some blowouts, but also some real surprises.  And picking the Final Four looks really, really tough -- each quarter has at least 3-4 candidates who are hard to separate from one another.  Middlebury probably has the clearest path but there are plenty of potential roadblocks even for the Panthers.  Whitman/Marietta also look well-positioned in their bracket, especially Whitman.

You'd have to consider North Central a bid thief as well...

[Mr. Ypsi]

And add MIT over Babson to that list.  VERY doubtful that MIT would have gotten an at large.

[nescac1]

I don't know Mr. Ypsi -- Keene State and Endicott, both of whom were (I believe) ranked behind MIT in New England, both made it ... the Committee took 10 ranked New England teams total, and even with a loss to Babson, MIT was certainly in the top ten in the region. 

North Central, yeah, I forgot about them ...

[D3ball1845]

Additionally, wouldn't Salem State be considered a bid thief as well? I didn't see them anywhere in the Pool C discussion...

[nescac1]

Salem State is not because no one from MASCAC received, or ever could have received, a Pool C bid -- so it if wasn't Salem State, it would be another lone representive from MASCAC.  Either way, that doesn't take a bid from anyone else ... bid thiefs have to be teams that would never have received a Pool C bid, but knock off a team that was a legit Pool C contender and conference-title favorite.  Union is the perfect example, since winning the conference tournament made its league a three-bid league, rather than a two-bid league. 

[D3ball1845]

Salem State is not because no one from MASCAC received, or ever could have received, a Pool C bid -- so it if wasn't Salem State, it would be another lone representive from MASCAC.  Either way, that doesn't take a bid from anyone else ... bid thiefs have to be teams that would never have received a Pool C bid, but knock off a team that was a legit Pool C contender and conference-title favorite.  Union is the perfect example, since winning the conference tournament made its league a three-bid league, rather than a two-bid league. 

Ahhhhhh that makes sense. Thank you for the clarification. I think I was confused, because in my eyes, Nichols had a shot at Pool C contention if they ended up losing the CCC final to Endicott. But, we'll never know if it would have happened and I have been made aware that the CCC has typically been a one bid conference.