Pool C

[fantastic50]

With "Selection Monday" four weeks away, here are my current projections.  There are 21 Pool C berths available, but several will be taken by strong teams who lose to conference tournament games to "bubble thieves".  More info is posted daily at http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

Near-locks
(NCAC) Wittenberg (18-0, SOS 0.516)

Strong contenders
(UAA) Washington U. (16-2, SOS 0.559)
(NWC) Whitman (18-0, SOS 0.510)
(NESCAC) Middlebury (15-3, SOS 0.583)
(C#1) Hamilton (17-2, SOS 0.559)
(CC) Swarthmore (17-2, SOS 0.525)
(MIAC) St. John's (15-1, SOS 0.522)
(CAC) York (Pa.) (17-2, SOS 0.532)
(C#2) New Jersey City (16-4, SOS 0.584)
(OAC) Marietta (15-4, SOS 0.575)
(C#3) Wooster (15-4, SOS 0.578)
(LEC) Eastern Connecticut (16-2, SOS 0.534)
(C#4) Augustana (15-4, SOS 0.587)
(C#5) Wesleyan (16-4, SOS 0.558)
(WIAC) UW-Platteville (14-3, SOS 0.570)
(C#6) Williams (14-4, SOS 0.571)
(C#7) Emory (15-3, SOS 0.540)
(ODAC) Emory and Henry (18-1, SOS 0.503)

Bubble-in
(NEWMAC) MIT (17-2, SOS 0.531)
(C#8) Cabrini (16-3, SOS 0.524)
(CSAC) Gwynedd Mercy (16-2, SOS 0.489)
(LL) Hobart (15-3, SOS 0.540)
(USAC) Maryville (Tenn.) (13-3, SOS 0.559)
(C#9) Keene State (14-5, SOS 0.570)
(C#10) John Carroll (15-4, SOS 0.543)
(CCIW) Illinois Wesleyan (16-3, SOS 0.536)
(C#11) Christopher Newport (15-4, SOS 0.533)
(C#12) UW-Oshkosh (15-4, SOS 0.549)
(C#13) Johns Hopkins (15-4, SOS 0.536)
(C#14) Franklin and Marshall (16-3, SOS 0.493)
(C#15) Whitworth (17-2, SOS 0.521)

Bubble-out
(SUNYAC) Plattsburgh State (14-4, SOS 0.533)
(out) Randolph-Macon (14-5, SOS 0.570)
(out) Cortland (15-4, SOS 0.530)
(out) Ohio Wesleyan (14-5, SOS 0.543)
(out) Baldwin Wallace (14-5, SOS 0.552)
(out) UW-Stevens Point (13-6, SOS 0.615)
(NJAC) Ramapo (15-5, SOS 0.541)
(out) Montclair State (15-5, SOS 0.534)
(out) Tufts (14-6, SOS 0.571)
(out) UW-River Falls (13-5, SOS 0.581)
(MACC) Lycoming (17-2, SOS 0.511)
(ASC) Sul Ross State (15-3, SOS 0.515)
(out) UW-Whitewater (14-4, SOS 0.529)
(out) Amherst (12-5, SOS 0.552)
(out) Rochester (13-5, SOS 0.562)

Fringe contenders
(out) Lebanon Valley (14-6, SOS 0.555)
(out) Brockport (14-5, SOS 0.539)
(out) Albright (14-5, SOS 0.544)
(out) East Texas Baptist (16-3, SOS 0.516)
(out) Springfield (13-6, SOS 0.552)
(out) Methodist (14-2, SOS 0.536)
(CCC) Nichols (16-3, SOS 0.523)
(out) TCNJ (16-4, SOS 0.504)
(out) Loras (15-5, SOS 0.524)
(out) North Central (Ill.) (13-5, SOS 0.540)
(out) Augsburg (14-5, SOS 0.519)
(out) Ohio Northern (13-6, SOS 0.550)
(MASCAC) Salem State (17-3, SOS 0.517)
(out) Wheaton (Ill.) (13-6, SOS 0.560)
(out) Trinity (Conn.) (13-6, SOS 0.547)
(out) LeTourneau (16-3, SOS 0.493)
(out) Wartburg (10-6, SOS 0.588)
(E8) Stevens (15-4, SOS 0.512)
(out) Neumann (15-4, SOS 0.490)
(out) St. Olaf (13-5, SOS 0.522)

Other projected Pool A teams
(IIAC) Nebraska Wesleyan (16-3, SOS 0.489)
(MWC) St. Norbert (15-4, SOS 0.518)
(HCAC) Hanover (13-4, SOS 0.489)
(GNAC) Albertus Magnus (14-4, SOS 0.519)
(AMCC) La Roche (14-5, SOS 0.469)
(CUNYAC) Lehman (16-4, SOS 0.431)
(LAND) Juniata (15-3, SOS 0.472)
(MACF) DeSales (14-4, SOS 0.491)
(MIAA) Hope (9-7, SOS 0.569)
(NEAC) Lancaster Bible (15-4, SOS 0.466)
(NECC) Southern Vermont (12-4, SOS 0.478)
(PAC) Thomas More (14-4, SOS 0.458)
(SAA) Centre (11-7, SOS 0.444)
(SCAC) Schreiner (10-9, SOS 0.508)
(SCIAC) Occidental (11-1, SOS 0.426)
(SKY) Farmingdale State (11-6, SOS 0.527)
(SLIAC) Greenville (12-7, SOS 0.489)
(NAC) Husson (15-4, SOS 0.443)
(NACC) Benedictine (12-7, SOS 0.490)
(UMAC) Bethany Lutheran (13-7, SOS 0.459)

[Smitty Oom]

(C#2) New Jersey City (16-4, SOS 0.584)
(OAC) Marietta (15-4, SOS 0.575)
(C#3) Wooster (15-4, SOS 0.578)
(LL) Hobart (15-3, SOS 0.540)
(USAC) Maryville (Tenn.) (13-3, SOS 0.559)
(C#9) Keene State (14-5, SOS 0.570)
(C#12) UW-Oshkosh (15-4, SOS 0.549)
(C#13) Johns Hopkins (15-4, SOS 0.536)
(out) Randolph-Macon (14-5, SOS 0.570)
(out) UW-Stevens Point (13-6, SOS 0.615)
(out) Lebanon Valley (14-6, SOS 0.555)
(out) Springfield (13-6, SOS 0.552)
(out) Wartburg (10-6, SOS 0.588)

All teams that I thought stood out to me in terms of SOS. Didn't know these teams had such strong schedules. Taking into account their top 25 ranking, conference and of course my own d3 knowledge, as I dont follow the East coast as closely as West/Central. I knew UWSP had a strong schedule but they had quite the SOS advantege on the field I had to POINT ( ) it out. Wooster is sitting in a much better position than I had originally thought, and I even kind of liked them as an under the radar team. Hobart's SOS in a down LL is pretty strong in my eyes, another team that maybe in the top 25 conversation that is not talked about much (should be noted I haven't listened to the top 25 Pick and Roll/3Ds/Double take yet today so I may be redundant here). I know it was mentioned in the LL thread on the boards here. I need to watch a Maryville game soon, seem like a fun and talented squad they out in Tennessee!

[Greek Tragedy]

It will be real interesting to watch Stevens Point and how things shape up for them. They are a real surprise leading the WIAC halfway through the schedule. They are just 13-6 overall, so there's a long way to go.

I looked up last year's Pool C shocker when Oshkosh got in at 17-10. Their SOS was .601 and 5-6 vRRO. Not to say every team with 10 losses will get in, but Point could get in with 9 losses. Their SOS is better right now, and I'm guessing it could go up with Whitewater, Oshkosh, River Falls and Platteville still to play. There's a lot of parity this year, probably more than last year, so that could also help the Pointers. We have a great and exciting month ahead of us.

[fantastic50]

(C#2) New Jersey City (16-4, SOS 0.584)
(OAC) Marietta (15-4, SOS 0.575)
(C#3) Wooster (15-4, SOS 0.578)
(LL) Hobart (15-3, SOS 0.540)
(USAC) Maryville (Tenn.) (13-3, SOS 0.559)
(C#9) Keene State (14-5, SOS 0.570)
(C#12) UW-Oshkosh (15-4, SOS 0.549)
(C#13) Johns Hopkins (15-4, SOS 0.536)
(out) Randolph-Macon (14-5, SOS 0.570)
(out) UW-Stevens Point (13-6, SOS 0.615)
(out) Lebanon Valley (14-6, SOS 0.555)
(out) Springfield (13-6, SOS 0.552)
(out) Wartburg (10-6, SOS 0.588)

All teams that I thought stood out to me in terms of SOS. Didn't know these teams had such strong schedules. Taking into account their top 25 ranking, conference and of course my own d3 knowledge, as I dont follow the East coast as closely as West/Central. I knew UWSP had a strong schedule but they had quite the SOS advantege on the field I had to POINT ( ) it out. Wooster is sitting in a much better position than I had originally thought, and I even kind of liked them as an under the radar team. Hobart's SOS in a down LL is pretty strong in my eyes, another team that maybe in the top 25 conversation that is not talked about much (should be noted I haven't listened to the top 25 Pick and Roll/3Ds/Double take yet today so I may be redundant here). I know it was mentioned in the LL thread on the boards here. I need to watch a Maryville game soon, seem like a fun and talented squad they out in Tennessee!

The WIAC is really interesting this year, as there are five very good teams (all in my top 25), plus UW-Lacrosse is solid, too.  However, the double-round-robin format (which I like) means that the league will cannabilize some of its own.  I think that this will lead to having a couple of WIAC teams with a sub-.700 WP but very strong SOS and three or more wins over regionally-ranked opponents, which will lead to tough calls for the national selection committee.  At the moment, I am projecting UW-SP to end up 17-10 (.630), .605 SOS, 4-7 vRRO, a very similar resume to that of UW-O last year.  My sense is that the bubble may not be soft enough for them to get in with those numbers, but it's certainly not out of the question.

Wooster (my team) had a very rough start, getting drilled by 33 at St John Fisher and losing to mid-level conference foes Wabash (at home) and Denison, but with a win over then-#4 Hanover in between.  With a 3-3 record in early December, it looked like the 15-year NCAA tournament streak could already be in jeopardy.  However, the Scots have won 12 of 13 since then, including a big comeback late to beat Emory & Henry (now 18-1), with only a home defeat to Wittenberg.  That being said, many of these wins have been in doubt late, and the slim margins are helping keep Wooster out of my top 25.

[Greek Tragedy]

Not to nitpick because it's fun to discuss difference in opinions.

But, I'm probably taking a team with a winning% of 72.2 and an SOS of .581 over a team that has a winning % of 84.2 and an SOS of .493. Yeah, 72% isn't great at all, but it's above the .700 threshold and that SOS is really good. And, although 84% is very good, the second team is below the .500 threshold, by a considerable amount.

[deiscanton]

Hoopsville Marathon is on today, starting at 10 AM Eastern.

Tim Fitzpatrick, the Men's Basketball National Committee Chair, is scheduled to be on the show at 6:40 PM Eastern.

[Greek Tragedy]

http://www.ncaa.org/championships/division-iii-mens-basketball

1st Regional Rankings come out next Wednesday with games counting through this weekend. It's February, time to start getting serious!

[fantastic50]

Mid-week update...

Top Pool-C-if-needed teams

Near-locks
(NESCAC) Middlebury (16-3, SOS 0.584)
(NCAC) Wittenberg (19-0, SOS 0.511)
(NWC) Whitman (18-0, SOS 0.506)

Strong contenders
(UAA) Washington U. (16-2, SOS 0.558)
(LEC) Eastern Connecticut (17-2, SOS 0.540)
(C#1) New Jersey City (17-4, SOS 0.567)
(C#2) York (Pa.) (18-2, SOS 0.530)
(OAC) Marietta (16-4, SOS 0.571)
(C#3) Wooster (16-4, SOS 0.572)
(CCIW) Augustana (16-4, SOS 0.586)
(WIAC) UW-Platteville (15-3, SOS 0.581)
(MIAC) St. John's (17-1, SOS 0.514)
(C#4) Hamilton (17-2, SOS 0.559)
(C#5) Cabrini (17-3, SOS 0.532)
(C#6) Williams (15-4, SOS 0.571)
(C#7) Wesleyan (16-4, SOS 0.563)
(C#8) Swarthmore (17-3, SOS 0.521)
(CAC) Christopher Newport (16-4, SOS 0.542)
(C#9) Emory (15-3, SOS 0.538)

Bubble-in
(LL) Hobart (16-3, SOS 0.545)
(ODAC) Emory and Henry (18-2, SOS 0.508)
(C#10) John Carroll (16-4, SOS 0.524)
(C#11) Randolph-Macon (15-5, SOS 0.562)
(CC) Johns Hopkins (16-4, SOS 0.525)
(C#12) Whitworth (17-2, SOS 0.520)
(C#13) Illinois Wesleyan (16-4, SOS 0.548)
(C#14) UW-Stevens Point (14-6, SOS 0.613)
(NEWMAC) MIT (17-3, SOS 0.529)
(SUNYAC) Plattsburgh State (15-4, SOS 0.524)
(C#15) Keene State (14-6, SOS 0.579)
(C#16) Franklin and Marshall (17-3, SOS 0.495)

Bubble-out
(CSAC) Gwynedd Mercy (16-3, SOS 0.502)
(out by bid thief) UW-Oshkosh (15-5, SOS 0.554)
(out by bid thief) Cortland (15-4, SOS 0.528)
(NJAC) Ramapo (16-5, SOS 0.536)
(USAC) Maryville (Tenn.) (13-4, SOS 0.552)
(out by bid thief) UW-River Falls (14-5, SOS 0.576)
(out by bid thief) Montclair State (16-5, SOS 0.532)
(out by bid thief) Tufts (15-6, SOS 0.570)
(MACC) Lycoming (18-2, SOS 0.512)
(ASC) Sul Ross State (15-3, SOS 0.515)
(out) Amherst (13-5, SOS 0.540)
(out) Baldwin Wallace (14-6, SOS 0.554)
(out) Brockport (15-5, SOS 0.526)
(out) Rochester (13-5, SOS 0.564)
(out) Albright (15-5, SOS 0.540)
(out) Loras (16-5, SOS 0.520)

Fringe contenders
(out) North Central (Ill.) (14-5, SOS 0.543)
(out) Springfield (14-6, SOS 0.548)
(out) East Texas Baptist (16-3, SOS 0.515)
(CCC) Nichols (17-3, SOS 0.516)
(out) Methodist (14-2, SOS 0.534)
(out) Ohio Wesleyan (14-6, SOS 0.540)
(out) Augsburg (15-5, SOS 0.517)
(out) St. Olaf (15-5, SOS 0.529)
(out) Ohio Northern (14-6, SOS 0.555)
(MASCAC) Salem State (18-3, SOS 0.513)
(out) UW-Whitewater (14-5, SOS 0.535)
(out) LeTourneau (16-3, SOS 0.494)
(MWC) Ripon (13-5, SOS 0.524)
(out) Wheaton (Ill.) (13-6, SOS 0.558)
(out) Neumann (16-4, SOS 0.498)
(out) Bowdoin (14-5, SOS 0.518)

Other projected Pool A teams
(IIAC) Nebraska Wesleyan (17-3, SOS 0.486)
(E8) Stevens (15-4, SOS 0.508)
(GNAC) Albertus Magnus (14-4, SOS 0.516)
(HCAC) Hanover (13-5, SOS 0.493)
(SKY) Farmingdale State (12-6, SOS 0.524)
(AMCC) Penn State-Behrend (17-3, SOS 0.452)
(CUNYAC) Lehman (17-4, SOS 0.442)
(SCAC) Schreiner (10-9, SOS 0.508)
(LAND) Juniata (16-3, SOS 0.470)
(MACF) DeSales (15-4, SOS 0.490)
(MIAA) Olivet (11-6, SOS 0.499)
(NAC) Husson (15-4, SOS 0.446)
(NEAC) Lancaster Bible (16-4, SOS 0.456)
(NECC) Southern Vermont (13-4, SOS 0.466)
(PAC) Thomas More (15-4, SOS 0.461)
(SAA) Centre (11-7, SOS 0.442)
(SCIAC) Occidental (11-1, SOS 0.423)
(SLIAC) Greenville (12-8, SOS 0.481)
(UMAC) St. Scholastica (13-6, SOS 0.435)
(NACC) Benedictine (13-7, SOS 0.488)

[fantastic50]

Through Sunday's games, based on many simulations of remaining games, conference tournaments, and Pool C selections...

Locks (could lose all remaining games  & still be safely in)
(NESCAC) Middlebury (18-3, SOS 0.585)

Near-locks
(LEC) Eastern Connecticut (18-2, SOS 0.543)
(C#1) Hamilton (19-2, SOS 0.558)
(C#2) Williams (17-4, SOS 0.568)
(NCAC) Wittenberg (20-0, SOS 0.508)
(UAA) Washington U. (18-2, SOS 0.569)
(NWC) Whitman (20-0, SOS 0.497)

Strong contenders
(CAC) York (Pa.) (19-2, SOS 0.529)
(C#3) Wooster (17-4, SOS 0.566)
(WIAC) UW-Platteville (16-3, SOS 0.578)
(CSAC) Cabrini (18-3, SOS 0.532)
(C#4) Swarthmore (18-3, SOS 0.516)
(C#5) Augustana (16-5, SOS 0.581)
(C#6) Emory (16-4, SOS 0.549)
(C#7) New Jersey City (17-5, SOS 0.566)
(SUNYAC) Plattsburgh State (17-4, SOS 0.533)
(MIAC) St. John's (17-2, SOS 0.524)
(C#8) Marietta (16-5, SOS 0.567)
(C#9) Wesleyan (16-5, SOS 0.570)

Bubble-in
(OAC) John Carroll (17-4, SOS 0.523)
(ODAC) Randolph-Macon (16-5, SOS 0.564)
(LL) Hobart (18-3, SOS 0.535)
(C#10) Whitworth (19-2, SOS 0.511)
(NJAC) Ramapo (17-5, SOS 0.545)
(CC) Johns Hopkins (17-4, SOS 0.527)
(C#11) UW-Stevens Point (15-6, SOS 0.609)
(C#12) Keene State (15-6, SOS 0.579)
(C#13) Franklin and Marshall (18-3, SOS 0.497)
(NEWMAC) MIT (18-3, SOS 0.533)
(C#14) Christopher Newport (16-5, SOS 0.533)
(CCIW) Illinois Wesleyan (16-4, SOS 0.543)
(C#15) Emory and Henry (18-3, SOS 0.507)

Bubble-out
(USAC) Maryville (Tenn.) (14-4, SOS 0.536)
(ASC) Sul Ross State (16-3, SOS 0.514)
(out via "bid thief") UW-Oshkosh (16-5, SOS 0.544)
(out via "bid thief") St. Olaf (16-5, SOS 0.537)
(out via "bid thief") Gwynedd Mercy (16-4, SOS 0.518)
(out via "bid thief") Albright (16-5, SOS 0.542)
(out via "bid thief") UW-River Falls (14-6, SOS 0.585)
(out via "bid thief") Loras (16-5, SOS 0.523)
(CCC) Nichols (18-3, SOS 0.516)
(out) Baldwin Wallace (15-6, SOS 0.541)
(out) Montclair State (16-6, SOS 0.537)
(out) Ohio Northern (15-6, SOS 0.551)
(out) Augsburg (16-5, SOS 0.511)
(out) North Central (Ill.) (15-5, SOS 0.537)
(out) Springfield (15-6, SOS 0.544)

Fringe contenders
(out) Ohio Wesleyan (15-6, SOS 0.536)
(out) Tufts (16-7, SOS 0.574)
(out) Amherst (14-6, SOS 0.544)
(out) East Texas Baptist (17-4, SOS 0.510)
(MASCAC) Salem State (19-3, SOS 0.508)
(out) UW-Whitewater (15-5, SOS 0.528)
(out) Brockport (15-6, SOS 0.531)
(out) LeTourneau (18-3, SOS 0.492)
(out) Wheaton (Ill.) (14-6, SOS 0.559)
(MACC) Lycoming (18-3, SOS 0.509)
(IIAC) Nebraska Wesleyan (18-3, SOS 0.497)
(out) Cortland (15-6, SOS 0.529)
(out) Rochester (13-7, SOS 0.568)
(out) Methodist (14-3, SOS 0.535)

Other projected Pool A teams
(GNAC) Albertus Magnus (16-4, SOS 0.516)
(MWC) Ripon (13-6, SOS 0.534)
(HCAC) Hanover (14-5, SOS 0.495)
(E8) Stevens (16-5, SOS 0.514)
(SKY) Farmingdale State (14-6, SOS 0.509)
(LAND) Juniata (17-3, SOS 0.478)
(MIAA) Hope (11-7, SOS 0.552)
(AMCC) La Roche (16-5, SOS 0.464)
(MACF) DeSales (16-4, SOS 0.472)
(NAC) Husson (16-5, SOS 0.460)
(NACC) Benedictine (14-7, SOS 0.494)
(NEAC) Lancaster Bible (18-4, SOS 0.448)
(PAC) Thomas More (16-4, SOS 0.466)
(SAA) Centre (13-7, SOS 0.440)
(SCAC) Schreiner (12-9, SOS 0.504)
(SCIAC) Occidental (11-2, SOS 0.438)
(UMAC) Bethany Lutheran (14-8, SOS 0.472)
(CUNYAC) Lehman (18-4, SOS 0.447)
(NECC) Southern Vermont (14-4, SOS 0.469)
(SLIAC) Greenville (13-8, SOS 0.486)

[Onward on, John Carroll]

http://www.ncaa.org/championships/division-iii-mens-basketball

1st Regional Rankings come out next Wednesday with games counting through this weekend. It's February, time to start getting serious!

When are those usually released? Early afternoon?

[deiscanton]

http://www.ncaa.org/championships/division-iii-mens-basketball

1st Regional Rankings come out next Wednesday with games counting through this weekend. It's February, time to start getting serious!

When are those usually released? Early afternoon?

Sometime this afternoon.  No uniform time-- sometimes, the NCAA has released them late, but I would expect them sometime between 3 PM and 5 PM Eastern.

The national committees are meeting this morning to look over the RAC recommendations before releasing the first week's regional rankings.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

While 3-5 PM ET has been something we are used to, it should be noted that the last two years the rankings came out somewhere between 1-2:30. The first rankings have tended to be later, but not the case the last two years.

The trick is when does the national committee finish, when does the liaison get it all compiled and sorted, when does the liaison then send it to Turner (who runs NCAA.com), and the big one... when does Turner get them posted on the site. The last one is always the biggest unknown.

[Ralph Turner]

While 3-5 PM ET has been something we are used to, it should be noted that the last two years the rankings came out somewhere between 1-2:30. The first rankings have tended to be later, but not the case the last two years.

The trick is when does the national committee finish, when does the liaison get it all compiled and sorted, when does the liaison then send it to Turner (who runs NCAA.com), and the big one... when does Turner get them posted on the site. The last one is always the biggest unknown.

LOL

Official disclaimer. 

Not my side of the family.  LOL!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

LOL Agreed. Turner Sports to be clear.

[KnightSlappy]

The rankings will be here (currently showing last year's final public rankings), but I'd recommend using the D3hoops link once that becomes available. 

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3