Pool C

irapthor · February 17, 2018, 10:17:47 PM

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 17, 2018, 08:14:18 PM
No worries for NJCU on getting into the tournament, but it might cost them the chance to host.

RE Hosting. I hope not! I spent 5+ hours this week putting together our bid package

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 18, 2018, 12:03:27 AM

Quote from: irapthor on February 17, 2018, 10:17:47 PM
Quote from: fantastic50 on February 17, 2018, 08:14:18 PM
No worries for NJCU on getting into the tournament, but it might cost them the chance to host.

RE Hosting. I hope not! I spent 5+ hours this week putting together our bid package

Waste of time...

... for those who don't know... I just like to give Ira a hard time. I am not making any predictions as of right now. My hard work starts soon.

fantastic50 · February 18, 2018, 08:47:29 AM

Confirmed Pool A teams
Washington U. (21-2, 12-0 UAA, SOS 0.546, 7-1 vRRO, CE#1)

Locks & Near-locks
100% Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 4-2 vRRO, NE#1) 21% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 5-3
100% Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 4-6 vRRO, NE#4) 0% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.583 / 4-6
100% Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 6-3 vRRO, NE#2) 17% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.590 / 7-4
100% Williams (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.587, 6-4 vRRO, NE#3) 30% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.596 / 6-4
100% Cabrini (22-3, 16-2 CSAC, SOS 0.528, 3-2 vRRO, AT#2) 53% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.536 / 3-2
100% Johns Hopkins (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.525, 3-3 vRRO, MA#2) 35% A, proj. 0.808 / 0.536 / 4-4
100% Swarthmore (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.528, 3-3 vRRO, MA#4) 42% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.538 / 4-4
100% Marietta (20-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.558, 4-4 vRRO, GL#4) 34% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.564 / 4-5
100% Wittenberg (22-2, 16-2 NCAC, SOS 0.524, 5-2 vRRO, GL#1) 60% A, proj. 0.889 / 0.530 / 4-1
100% Wooster (20-5, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.561, 6-2 vRRO, GL#2) 19% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.565 / 4-3
100% Augustana (19-5, 11-4 CCIW, SOS 0.566, 4-3 vRRO, CE#3) 38% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.570 / 3-3
100% UW-Platteville (20-3, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.574, 5-2 vRRO, CE#2) 69% A, proj. 0.840 / 0.579 / 4-2
100% St. John's (22-2, 19-1 MIAC, SOS 0.518, 3-1 vRRO, WE#2) 63% A, proj. 0.885 / 0.527 / 3-2
100% Whitman (24-0, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.511, 6-0 vRRO, WE#1) 76% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.524 / 5-1
99% Eastern Connecticut (21-3, 13-1 LEC, SOS 0.534, 4-1 vRRO, NE#5) 66% A, fin 99% C, semi 99% C, qtr 99% C
99% New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.568, 5-4 vRRO, AT#1) qtr 99% C
99% Christopher Newport (20-5, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.536, 3-1 vRRO, MA#5) 54% A, fin 100% C, semi 99% C
99% York (Pa.) (21-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.524, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 26% A, fin 100% C, semi 99% C
99% John Carroll (20-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.534, 5-2 vRRO, GL#3) 46% A, fin 100% C, semi 99% C, qtr 99% C

Strong contenders
97% Emory (19-4, 10-2 UAA, SOS 0.530, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 0.840 / 0.529 / 3-2
92% Albright (19-5, 12-4 MACC, SOS 0.542, 3-1 vRRO, MA#3) 52% A, fin 99% C, semi 87% C
91% Plattsburgh State (20-4, 17-1 SUNYAC, SOS 0.518, 3-3 vRRO, EA#2) 59% A, fin 99% C, semi 81% C
91% St. Olaf (19-6, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.534, 3-3 vRRO, WE#3) 16% A, fin 99% C, semi 85% C

Bubble-in
78% Ramapo (19-6, 15-3 NJAC, SOS 0.536, 3-5 vRRO, AT#3) 50% A, fin 98% C, semi 61% C
78% Whitworth (22-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.514, 2-3 vRRO, WE#5) 18% A, fin 72% C, semi 93% C
73% UW-Oshkosh (19-6, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.548, 4-3 vRRO, CE#4) 10% A, fin 97% C, semi 77% C, qtr 39% C
68% Franklin and Marshall (20-5, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.522, 2-3 vRRO, MA#6) 16% A, fin 99% C, semi 58% C
65% Illinois Wesleyan (19-5, 12-3 CCIW, SOS 0.543, 2-4 vRRO, CE#6) 34% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.552 / 2-4
64% Springfield (18-7, 12-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.557, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 42% A, fin 84% C, semi 41% C
62% Brockport (19-6, 14-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.530, 3-3 vRRO, EA#4) 23% A, fin 93% C, semi 34% C
60% Hobart (21-4, 16-2 LL, SOS 0.525, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 68% A, fin 65% C, semi 52% C
58% Randolph-Macon (18-7, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.552, 4-3 vRRO, SO#2) 35% A, fin 92% C, semi 61% C, qtr 19% C
57% Loras (19-6, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.541, 1-2 vRRO, WE#7) 26% A, fin 73% C, semi 28% C
51% UW-Stevens Point (17-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.604, 5-5 vRRO, CE#5) 15% A, fin 74% C, semi 27% C

Bubble-out
42% Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 4-5 vRRO, NE#8) 32% A, fin 81% C, semi 20% C
41% Gwynedd Mercy (20-5, 15-3 CSAC, SOS 0.510, 3-3 vRRO, AT#5) 28% A, fin 68% C, semi 6% C
31% LeTourneau (22-3, 16-2 ASC, SOS 0.499, 1-3 vRRO, SO) 35% A, fin 58% C, semi 14% C, qtr 2% C
27% Sul Ross State (19-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.510, 2-0 vRRO, SO#3) 31% A, fin 61% C, semi 18% C, qtr 8% C
26% MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.526, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 36% A, fin 43% C, semi 9% C

Fringe contenders
18% Keene State (17-8, 11-3 LEC, SOS 0.570, 2-5 vRRO, NE#7) 23% A, fin 31% C, semi 3% C
17% Salem State (22-3, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.510, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 73% A, fin 23% C, semi 10% C
15% Maryville (Tenn.) (16-5, 13-2 USAC, SOS 0.521, 1-2 vRRO, SO#5) 46% A, proj. 0.750 / 0.524 / 2-2
15% Ripon (17-6, 14-4 MWC, SOS 0.525, 1-2 vRRO, CE) 30% A, fin 30% C, semi 9% C
15% Wheaton (Ill.) (17-7, 10-5 CCIW, SOS 0.549, 4-2 vRRO, CE#7) 10% A, proj. 0.667 / 0.556 / 4-3
14% Tufts (17-8, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.580, 2-7 vRRO, NE#11) 0% A, proj. 0.680 / 0.579 / 2-7
12% Nichols (22-3, 16-2 CCC, SOS 0.510, 0-1 vRRO, NE) 53% A, fin 21% C, semi 6% C, qtr 5% C
4% Augsburg (18-7, 13-7 MIAC, SOS 0.524, 2-3 vRRO, WE#6) 7% A, proj. 0.704 / 0.538 / 3-4
3% TCNJ (19-6, 14-4 NJAC, SOS 0.513, 4-3 vRRO, AT#4) 27% A, proj. 0.741 / 0.522 / 4-4
3% Emory and Henry (19-6, 11-5 ODAC, SOS 0.513, 3-3 vRRO, SO#4) 11% A, fin 20% C, semi 1% C
3% Nebraska Wesleyan (21-3, 13-3 IIAC, SOS 0.500, 1-1 vRRO, WE#4) 59% A, fin 3% C, semi 3% C
2% Baldwin Wallace (17-8, 11-7 OAC, SOS 0.546, 4-5 vRRO, GL#6) 6% A, proj. 0.667 / 0.554 / 3-4
2% UW-River Falls (16-8, 7-7 WIAC, SOS 0.576, 2-6 vRRO, CE#8) 4% A, proj. 0.654 / 0.585 / 2-6

Other projected Pool A teams
(MWC) Monmouth (18-7, SOS 0.527, 0-1 vRRO)
(GNAC) Albertus Magnus (19-5, SOS 0.506, 0-4 vRRO)
(SCAC) Schreiner (13-12, SOS 0.507, 0-2 vRRO)
(CUNYAC) Lehman (21-4, SOS 0.452, 1-0 vRRO)
(HCAC) Hanover (17-6, SOS 0.480, 1-2 vRRO)
(LAND) Juniata (20-4, SOS 0.469, 2-0 vRRO)
(MACF) Wilkes (16-7, SOS 0.480, 0-2 vRRO)
(MIAA) Olivet (15-7, SOS 0.493, 1-3 vRRO)
(NAC) Husson (19-6, SOS 0.457, 0-0 vRRO)
(NACC) Aurora (17-8, SOS 0.461, 0-0 vRRO)
(NEAC) Lancaster Bible (20-5, SOS 0.451, 0-1 vRRO)
(NECC) Southern Vermont (17-5, SOS 0.452, 1-2 vRRO)
(SCIAC) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (15-7, SOS 0.497, 0-3 vRRO)
(SKY) Farmingdale State (18-7, SOS 0.508, 1-3 vRRO)
(SLIAC) Greenville (17-8, SOS 0.479, 0-1 vRRO)
(UMAC) Bethany Lutheran (17-8, SOS 0.464, 0-2 vRRO)
(AMCC) La Roche (19-6, SOS 0.481, 1-2 vRRO)
(E8) Nazareth (18-7, SOS 0.505, 2-1 vRRO)
(PAC) Thomas More (19-5, SOS 0.477, 0-0 vRRO)
(SAA) Centre (16-7, SOS 0.446, 1-0 vRRO)

Titan Q · February 18, 2018, 08:52:20 AM

Thanks, fantastic50! Great stuff.

How does your A percentage work? Wondering why, at this point, Augustana has a better A chance (38%) than IWU (34%). What goes into that?

Standings Through Feb 18
Illinois Wesleyan 12-3 (vs North Central)
Augustana 11-4 (vs Elmhurst)
North Central 10-5 (at Illinois Wesleyan)
Wheaton 10-5 (at Carroll)

Titan Q · February 18, 2018, 09:17:26 AM

So just taking fantastic50's work and removing the projected Pool A's...

Safely In
1. Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 4-2 vRRO, NE#1) 21% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 5-3
2. Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 4-6 vRRO, NE#4) 0% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.583 / 4-6
3. Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 6-3 vRRO, NE#2) 17% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.590 / 7-4
4. Johns Hopkins (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.525, 3-3 vRRO, MA#2) 35% A, proj. 0.808 / 0.536 / 4-4
5. Marietta (20-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.558, 4-4 vRRO, GL#4) 34% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.564 / 4-5
6. Wooster (20-5, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.561, 6-2 vRRO, GL#2) 19% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.565 / 4-3
7. Augustana (19-5, 11-4 CCIW, SOS 0.566, 4-3 vRRO, CE#3) 38% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.570 / 3-3
8. New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.568, 5-4 vRRO, AT#1) qtr 99% C
9. York (Pa.) (21-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.524, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 26% A, fin 100% C, semi 99% C
10. Emory (19-4, 10-2 UAA, SOS 0.530, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 0.840 / 0.529 / 3-2
11. St. Olaf (19-6, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.534, 3-3 vRRO, WE#3) 16% A, fin 99% C, semi 85% C
12. Whitworth (22-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.514, 2-3 vRRO, WE#5) 18% A, fin 72% C, semi 93% C
13. UW-Oshkosh (19-6, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.548, 4-3 vRRO, CE#4) 10% A, fin 97% C, semi 77% C, qtr 39% C
14. Franklin and Marshall (20-5, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.522, 2-3 vRRO, MA#6) 16% A, fin 99% C, semi 58% C

At the Mercy of Bubble Burster Results (I usually set aside 7)
15. Brockport (19-6, 14-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.530, 3-3 vRRO, EA#4) 23% A, fin 93% C, semi 34% C
16. Loras (19-6, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.541, 1-2 vRRO, WE#7) 26% A, fin 73% C, semi 28% C
17. UW-Stevens Point (17-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.604, 5-5 vRRO, CE#5) 15% A, fin 74% C, semi 27% C
18. Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 4-5 vRRO, NE#8) 32% A, fin 81% C, semi 20% C
19. Gwynedd Mercy (20-5, 15-3 CSAC, SOS 0.510, 3-3 vRRO, AT#5) 28% A, fin 68% C, semi 6% C
20. Sul Ross State (19-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.510, 2-0 vRRO, SO#3) 31% A, fin 61% C, semi 18% C, qtr 8% C
21. MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.526, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 36% A, fin 43% C, semi 9% C

Hoosiersfan2323 · February 18, 2018, 10:44:13 AM

Quote from: Titan Q on February 18, 2018, 09:17:26 AM
So just taking fantastic50's work and removing the projected Pool A's...

Safely In
1. Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 4-2 vRRO, NE#1) 21% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 5-3
2. Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 4-6 vRRO, NE#4) 0% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.583 / 4-6
3. Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 6-3 vRRO, NE#2) 17% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.590 / 7-4
4. Johns Hopkins (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.525, 3-3 vRRO, MA#2) 35% A, proj. 0.808 / 0.536 / 4-4
5. Marietta (20-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.558, 4-4 vRRO, GL#4) 34% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.564 / 4-5
6. Wooster (20-5, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.561, 6-2 vRRO, GL#2) 19% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.565 / 4-3
7. Augustana (19-5, 11-4 CCIW, SOS 0.566, 4-3 vRRO, CE#3) 38% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.570 / 3-3
8. New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.568, 5-4 vRRO, AT#1) qtr 99% C
9. York (Pa.) (21-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.524, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 26% A, fin 100% C, semi 99% C
10. Emory (19-4, 10-2 UAA, SOS 0.530, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 0.840 / 0.529 / 3-2
11. St. Olaf (19-6, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.534, 3-3 vRRO, WE#3) 16% A, fin 99% C, semi 85% C
12. Whitworth (22-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.514, 2-3 vRRO, WE#5) 18% A, fin 72% C, semi 93% C
13. UW-Oshkosh (19-6, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.548, 4-3 vRRO, CE#4) 10% A, fin 97% C, semi 77% C, qtr 39% C
14. Franklin and Marshall (20-5, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.522, 2-3 vRRO, MA#6) 16% A, fin 99% C, semi 58% C

At the Mercy of Bubble Burster Results (I usually set aside 7)
15. Brockport (19-6, 14-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.530, 3-3 vRRO, EA#4) 23% A, fin 93% C, semi 34% C
16. Loras (19-6, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.541, 1-2 vRRO, WE#7) 26% A, fin 73% C, semi 28% C
17. UW-Stevens Point (17-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.604, 5-5 vRRO, CE#5) 15% A, fin 74% C, semi 27% C
18. Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 4-5 vRRO, NE#8) 32% A, fin 81% C, semi 20% C
19. Gwynedd Mercy (20-5, 15-3 CSAC, SOS 0.510, 3-3 vRRO, AT#5) 28% A, fin 68% C, semi 6% C
20. Sul Ross State (19-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.510, 2-0 vRRO, SO#3) 31% A, fin 61% C, semi 18% C, qtr 8% C
21. MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.526, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 36% A, fin 43% C, semi 9% C

Hey guys, hate to show my ignorance, but can you explain the "%A, fin % C, semi % C"?

Smitty Oom · February 18, 2018, 11:07:37 AM

Quote from: Hoosiersfan2323 on February 18, 2018, 10:44:13 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on February 18, 2018, 09:17:26 AM
So just taking fantastic50's work and removing the projected Pool A's...

Safely In
1. Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 4-2 vRRO, NE#1) 21% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 5-3
2. Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 4-6 vRRO, NE#4) 0% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.583 / 4-6
3. Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 6-3 vRRO, NE#2) 17% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.590 / 7-4
4. Johns Hopkins (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.525, 3-3 vRRO, MA#2) 35% A, proj. 0.808 / 0.536 / 4-4
5. Marietta (20-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.558, 4-4 vRRO, GL#4) 34% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.564 / 4-5
6. Wooster (20-5, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.561, 6-2 vRRO, GL#2) 19% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.565 / 4-3
7. Augustana (19-5, 11-4 CCIW, SOS 0.566, 4-3 vRRO, CE#3) 38% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.570 / 3-3
8. New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.568, 5-4 vRRO, AT#1) qtr 99% C
9. York (Pa.) (21-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.524, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 26% A, fin 100% C, semi 99% C
10. Emory (19-4, 10-2 UAA, SOS 0.530, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 0.840 / 0.529 / 3-2
11. St. Olaf (19-6, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.534, 3-3 vRRO, WE#3) 16% A, fin 99% C, semi 85% C
12. Whitworth (22-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.514, 2-3 vRRO, WE#5) 18% A, fin 72% C, semi 93% C
13. UW-Oshkosh (19-6, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.548, 4-3 vRRO, CE#4) 10% A, fin 97% C, semi 77% C, qtr 39% C
14. Franklin and Marshall (20-5, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.522, 2-3 vRRO, MA#6) 16% A, fin 99% C, semi 58% C

At the Mercy of Bubble Burster Results (I usually set aside 7)
15. Brockport (19-6, 14-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.530, 3-3 vRRO, EA#4) 23% A, fin 93% C, semi 34% C
16. Loras (19-6, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.541, 1-2 vRRO, WE#7) 26% A, fin 73% C, semi 28% C
17. UW-Stevens Point (17-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.604, 5-5 vRRO, CE#5) 15% A, fin 74% C, semi 27% C
18. Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 4-5 vRRO, NE#8) 32% A, fin 81% C, semi 20% C
19. Gwynedd Mercy (20-5, 15-3 CSAC, SOS 0.510, 3-3 vRRO, AT#5) 28% A, fin 68% C, semi 6% C
20. Sul Ross State (19-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.510, 2-0 vRRO, SO#3) 31% A, fin 61% C, semi 18% C, qtr 8% C
21. MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.526, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 36% A, fin 43% C, semi 9% C

Hey guys, hate to show my ignorance, but can you explain the "%A, fin % C, semi % C"?

Pool A means you qualified for the tournament through the conferences automatic qualifying (AQ) bid (winning the post season tournament in all cases besides UAA, which has the regular sesaon champion recieve the AQ).

All teams that are in a conference and they did not win their conference AQ get placed in Pool C. These teams will be hoping their resume is good enough for an "At Large" selection

There are some teams in a Pool B, but since the pool is not large enough this year (has to be at least 10?) these teams do not receive a bid on the mens side. Womens hoops has a pool B bid this year, and it is actually an exciting race in a unique way
http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=2916.0

So regarding the percentages, it is the percent chance fan50 gives for a team to make the tournament given each scenario.

So %A is the percent chance they win their conference tournament, and gains entrance to the NCAA tourney that way.

fin %C is assumes that the team gets all the way to the finals of the conference tournament but lose, putting them into 'pool C.' The percent than refers to the chance they will receive one of the 21 at large bids, given what their resume would look like if this scenario would happen.

Semi %C assumes that the team loses in the semi-final of the conference tourney, putting them into pool C. The percent is gong to be less than "fin %C" primarily because you will have one less win. Secondarily, if you make it to the conference final, you are playing a really good team usually which will increase your SOS and possibly be a result versus a ranked opponent, both of which will also help your resume.

Hope that helps!

Hoosiersfan2323 · February 18, 2018, 12:07:01 PM

Quote from: Smitty Oom on February 18, 2018, 11:07:37 AM
Quote from: Hoosiersfan2323 on February 18, 2018, 10:44:13 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on February 18, 2018, 09:17:26 AM
So just taking fantastic50's work and removing the projected Pool A's...

Safely In
1. Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 4-2 vRRO, NE#1) 21% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 5-3
2. Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 4-6 vRRO, NE#4) 0% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.583 / 4-6
3. Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 6-3 vRRO, NE#2) 17% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.590 / 7-4
4. Johns Hopkins (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.525, 3-3 vRRO, MA#2) 35% A, proj. 0.808 / 0.536 / 4-4
5. Marietta (20-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.558, 4-4 vRRO, GL#4) 34% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.564 / 4-5
6. Wooster (20-5, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.561, 6-2 vRRO, GL#2) 19% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.565 / 4-3
7. Augustana (19-5, 11-4 CCIW, SOS 0.566, 4-3 vRRO, CE#3) 38% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.570 / 3-3
8. New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.568, 5-4 vRRO, AT#1) qtr 99% C
9. York (Pa.) (21-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.524, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 26% A, fin 100% C, semi 99% C
10. Emory (19-4, 10-2 UAA, SOS 0.530, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 0.840 / 0.529 / 3-2
11. St. Olaf (19-6, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.534, 3-3 vRRO, WE#3) 16% A, fin 99% C, semi 85% C
12. Whitworth (22-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.514, 2-3 vRRO, WE#5) 18% A, fin 72% C, semi 93% C
13. UW-Oshkosh (19-6, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.548, 4-3 vRRO, CE#4) 10% A, fin 97% C, semi 77% C, qtr 39% C
14. Franklin and Marshall (20-5, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.522, 2-3 vRRO, MA#6) 16% A, fin 99% C, semi 58% C

At the Mercy of Bubble Burster Results (I usually set aside 7)
15. Brockport (19-6, 14-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.530, 3-3 vRRO, EA#4) 23% A, fin 93% C, semi 34% C
16. Loras (19-6, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.541, 1-2 vRRO, WE#7) 26% A, fin 73% C, semi 28% C
17. UW-Stevens Point (17-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.604, 5-5 vRRO, CE#5) 15% A, fin 74% C, semi 27% C
18. Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 4-5 vRRO, NE#8) 32% A, fin 81% C, semi 20% C
19. Gwynedd Mercy (20-5, 15-3 CSAC, SOS 0.510, 3-3 vRRO, AT#5) 28% A, fin 68% C, semi 6% C
20. Sul Ross State (19-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.510, 2-0 vRRO, SO#3) 31% A, fin 61% C, semi 18% C, qtr 8% C
21. MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.526, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 36% A, fin 43% C, semi 9% C

Hey guys, hate to show my ignorance, but can you explain the "%A, fin % C, semi % C"?

Pool A means you qualified for the tournament through the conferences automatic qualifying (AQ) bid (winning the post season tournament in all cases besides UAA, which has the regular sesaon champion recieve the AQ).

All teams that are in a conference and they did not win their conference AQ get placed in Pool C. These teams will be hoping their resume is good enough for an "At Large" selection

There are some teams in a Pool B, but since the pool is not large enough this year (has to be at least 10?) these teams do not receive a bid on the mens side. Womens hoops has a pool B bid this year, and it is actually an exciting race in a unique way
http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=2916.0

So regarding the percentages, it is the percent chance fan50 gives for a team to make the tournament given each scenario.

So %A is the percent chance they win their conference tournament, and gains entrance to the NCAA tourney that way.

fin %C is assumes that the team gets all the way to the finals of the conference tournament but lose, putting them into 'pool C.' The percent than refers to the chance they will receive one of the 21 at large bids, given what their resume would look like if this scenario would happen.

Semi %C assumes that the team loses in the semi-final of the conference tourney, putting them into pool C. The percent is gong to be less than "fin %C" primarily because you will have one less win. Secondarily, if you make it to the conference final, you are playing a really good team usually which will increase your SOS and possibly be a result versus a ranked opponent, both of which will also help your resume.

Hope that helps!

Really interesting and incredibly helpful, thank you so much for taking the time to explain!

Greek Tragedy · February 18, 2018, 12:52:15 PM

Quote from: Titan Q on February 18, 2018, 09:17:26 AM
So just taking fantastic50's work and removing the projected Pool A's...

Safely In
1. Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 4-2 vRRO, NE#1) 21% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 5-3
2. Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 4-6 vRRO, NE#4) 0% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.583 / 4-6
3. Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 6-3 vRRO, NE#2) 17% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.590 / 7-4
4. Johns Hopkins (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.525, 3-3 vRRO, MA#2) 35% A, proj. 0.808 / 0.536 / 4-4
5. Marietta (20-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.558, 4-4 vRRO, GL#4) 34% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.564 / 4-5
6. Wooster (20-5, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.561, 6-2 vRRO, GL#2) 19% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.565 / 4-3
7. Augustana (19-5, 11-4 CCIW, SOS 0.566, 4-3 vRRO, CE#3) 38% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.570 / 3-3
8. New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.568, 5-4 vRRO, AT#1) qtr 99% C
9. York (Pa.) (21-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.524, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 26% A, fin 100% C, semi 99% C
10. Emory (19-4, 10-2 UAA, SOS 0.530, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 0.840 / 0.529 / 3-2
11. St. Olaf (19-6, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.534, 3-3 vRRO, WE#3) 16% A, fin 99% C, semi 85% C
12. Whitworth (22-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.514, 2-3 vRRO, WE#5) 18% A, fin 72% C, semi 93% C
13. UW-Oshkosh (19-6, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.548, 4-3 vRRO, CE#4) 10% A, fin 97% C, semi 77% C, qtr 39% C
14. Franklin and Marshall (20-5, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.522, 2-3 vRRO, MA#6) 16% A, fin 99% C, semi 58% C

At the Mercy of Bubble Burster Results (I usually set aside 7)
15. Brockport (19-6, 14-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.530, 3-3 vRRO, EA#4) 23% A, fin 93% C, semi 34% C
16. Loras (19-6, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.541, 1-2 vRRO, WE#7) 26% A, fin 73% C, semi 28% C
17. UW-Stevens Point (17-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.604, 5-5 vRRO, CE#5) 15% A, fin 74% C, semi 27% C
18. Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 4-5 vRRO, NE#8) 32% A, fin 81% C, semi 20% C
19. Gwynedd Mercy (20-5, 15-3 CSAC, SOS 0.510, 3-3 vRRO, AT#5) 28% A, fin 68% C, semi 6% C
20. Sul Ross State (19-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.510, 2-0 vRRO, SO#3) 31% A, fin 61% C, semi 18% C, qtr 8% C
21. MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.526, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 36% A, fin 43% C, semi 9% C

Thanks!

(509)Rat · February 18, 2018, 01:51:29 PM

Seems like Whitworths fin % C and semi % C got entered in backwards

Titan Q · February 18, 2018, 02:44:01 PM

I have taken a little closer look at this and here is where I see things...

(There are 21 Pool C bids available this year.)

Safely In
1. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .880 (22-3)/.567/4-2
2. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .800 (20-5)/.583/6-3
3. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .792 (19-5)/.587/6-4
4. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .800 (20-5)/.561/6-2
5. Marietta (GL/OAC): .800 (20-5)/.558/4-4
6. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).583/4-6
7. Augustana (CE/CCIW): .792 (19-5)/.566/4-3
8. Johns Hopkins (MA/CC): .840 (21-4)/.525/3-3
9. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.568/5-4
10. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC: .760 (19-6)/.548/4-3
11. UW-Stevens Point (CE/WIAC): .680 (17-8)/.604/5-5
12. York, Pa (MA/CAC): .840 (21-4)/.524/3-1
13. Emory (SO/UAA): .826 (19-4)/.530/3-2
14. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .760 (19-6)/.534/3-3

At the Mercy of Bubble Burster Results (I'd say we average 5 per year...I use 7 to be safe)
15. Wheaton (CE/CCIW: .708 (17-7)/.549/4-2
16. Baldwin Wallace (GL/OAC): .680 (17-8)/.546/4-5
17. Brockport (EA/SUNYAC): .760 (19-6)/.530/3-3
18. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .800 (20-5)/.526/2-3
19. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .800 (20-5)/.522/2-3
20. Whitworth (WE/NWC): .800 (22-3)/.514/2-3
21. Sul Ross State (SO/ASC): .826 (19-4)/.510/2-0

In the Conversation for Spot #21/Generally In Trouble
22. TCNJ (AT/NJAC): .760 (19-6)/.513/4-3
23. Gwynedd Mercy (AT/CSAC): .800 (20-5)/.510/3-3
24. Loras (WE/IIAC): .760 (19-6)/.541/1-2
25. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.580/2-7
26. Keene State (NE/LEC): .680 (17-8)/.570/2-5
27. UW-River Falls (WE/WIAC): .667 (16-8)/.576/2-6

Out
28. Emory & Henry (SO/ODAC): .760 (19-6)/.513/3-3
29. Maryville, TN (SO/USAC): .762 (16-5)/.521/1-2
30. Ripon (CE/MWC): .739 (17-6)/.525/1-2
31. Augsburg (WE/MIAC): .720 (18-7)/.524/2-3

sac · February 18, 2018, 03:18:49 PM

anybody want to attempt to show how the "non-conference" SOS might change anything?

fantastic50 · February 18, 2018, 03:21:17 PM

Quote from: (509)Rat on February 18, 2018, 01:51:29 PM
Seems like Whitworths fin % C and semi % C got entered in backwards

The content is auto-generated, and there are no other cases like this, so I had to dig deeply to figure out what would cause such a strange result. Here are Whitworth's projected lines...
Lose semifinal: .846 WP / .521 SOS / 2.11-3.22 vRRO (93% Pool C)
Lose final: .852 WP / .538 SOS / 1.65-3.25 vRRO (72% Pool C)

I think what this means is that a Whitworth semifinal win over Puget Sound would knock out the Loggers out of the regional rankings, whereas a Whitworth loss in that round would keep Puget Sound ranked, giving Whitworth another win vs RRO, and that appears to matter more than the SOS & WP bump that go with reaching the final. However, because any team regionally ranked in week 3 (through today's games, rankings to be released Wednesday) stays considered regionally ranked for vRRO purposes at the selections, Puget Sound falling out wouldn't cost Whitworth a win vRRO in reality.

End result -- this is an error, but a complicated one to fix. It will get resolved at least by the time that the NCAA releases the 3rd RRs on Wednesday.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 18, 2018, 03:21:35 PM

Quote from: sac on February 18, 2018, 03:18:49 PM
anybody want to attempt to show how the "non-conference" SOS might change anything?

I think that gets tough. These predictions don't include the other primary stuff - which everyone admits. We would have to have conversations on that information first before you could start talking about the non-conference SOS. Ryan has seen signs where the non-conf SOS seems to be making a play. I have seen signs where I don't think it has gotten to that criteria.

Secondary criteria is really tough to start hashing out when we don't really know if it would be used.

fantastic50 · February 18, 2018, 03:25:10 PM

Quote from: Titan Q on February 18, 2018, 08:52:20 AM
Thanks, fantastic50! Great stuff.

How does your A percentage work? Wondering why, at this point, Augustana has a better A chance (38%) than IWU (34%). What goes into that?

Standings Through Feb 18
Illinois Wesleyan 12-3 (vs North Central)
Augustana 11-4 (vs Elmhurst)
North Central 10-5 (at Illinois Wesleyan)
Wheaton 10-5 (at Carroll)

Pool A probability is based on simulations of any remaining regular season games, plus the conference tournament. I have IWU a roughly 2-to-1 favorite to get the top seed, but my predictive ratings have Augustana about two points stronger (and ranked #9 vs #13 for the Titans). That combination is enough to make Augie a slight favorite to win the CCIW tournament, for now, but I think it will flip if the Titans lock up the #1 seed.