Pool C

[fantastic50]

Would think that Juniata(20-4, 10-4 LAND, SOS .468, 2-0 vrro, M/A #7) should be in the bubble-out category, at least.

Over the last five years, the lowest SOS for a Pool C team was 2014 WPI (22-4, .502 SOS, 3-1 vRRO). Juniata's resume reminds me of last year's Denison team (22-5, .476, 2-3), which was far enough out of contention that they weren't even on my chart. (See http://www.d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2017/uw-oshkosh-off-charts). 

The lowest-SOS team with a decent chance this year is Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 0.506, 4-1, West #5) which I show having only a 23% chance if they fall to Central in the IIAC final.  With an SOS of .468, I think that Juniata would have needed to be 24-0 or 23-1 going into the conference tournament, in order to be in the Pool C discussion.

[ronk]

Would think that Juniata(20-4, 10-4 LAND, SOS .468, 2-0 vrro, M/A #7) should be in the bubble-out category, at least.

Over the last five years, the lowest SOS for a Pool C team was 2014 WPI (22-4, .502 SOS, 3-1 vRRO). Juniata's resume reminds me of last year's Denison team (22-5, .476, 2-3), which was far enough out of contention that they weren't even on my chart. (See http://www.d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2017/uw-oshkosh-off-charts). 

The lowest-SOS team with a decent chance this year is Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 0.506, 4-1, West #5) which I show having only a 23% chance if they fall to Central in the IIAC final.  With an SOS of .468, I think that Juniata would have needed to be 24-0 or 23-1 going into the conference tournament, in order to be in the Pool C discussion.

They will have played additional games against 15-9 and 17-7 since the .468 was compiled; only gets them to .482, approximately.

[gordonmann]

I think IWU probably stays ahead there...that is a significant difference in winning %, with the other numbers being close.  If you are the Central committee, and you are stacking teams up based on who has the best Pool C shot, I think IWU has to have the edge in this scenario.  If you put NCC higher in this scenario, you hurt the region's Pool C chances because of the difference in winning % (again, other numbers being really close). 

Q, that's a good point. Do we know if the Committees think in these terms? Do they explicitly or implicitly try to order teams to give the region as a whole the best chance to get at-large bids?

[Titan Q]

I think IWU probably stays ahead there...that is a significant difference in winning %, with the other numbers being close.  If you are the Central committee, and you are stacking teams up based on who has the best Pool C shot, I think IWU has to have the edge in this scenario.  If you put NCC higher in this scenario, you hurt the region's Pool C chances because of the difference in winning % (again, other numbers being really close). 

Q, that's a good point. Do we know if the Committees think in these terms? Do they explicitly or implicitly try to order teams to give the region as a whole the best chance to get at-large bids?

Every committee member I have talked to says that is what they do.  With the Pool C candidates, they line them up in order of how they expect them to "compete" in the national Pool C process.

Several years ago IWU beat Wheaton 3 times...but Wheaton had better overall numbers than IWU and end up ranked higher regionally.  That was the first time it was explained to me that the committee's job is to give the region that best chances for Pool C bids.  So they use head-to-head results to "break a tie"...but the ranking is still driven by WP/SOS/RRO.

IWU vs NCC (as I posted above) is the perfect example.  IWU would have a better resume than NCC in that scenario and would almost certainly be ranked higher...even though NCC would be 2-1 vs IWU.

Of course, we have all seen some cases where the regional order was messed up and Team A blocks Team B from ever getting to the table...where Team B actually had the better Pool C resume.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I think IWU probably stays ahead there...that is a significant difference in winning %, with the other numbers being close.  If you are the Central committee, and you are stacking teams up based on who has the best Pool C shot, I think IWU has to have the edge in this scenario.  If you put NCC higher in this scenario, you hurt the region's Pool C chances because of the difference in winning % (again, other numbers being really close). 

Q, that's a good point. Do we know if the Committees think in these terms? Do they explicitly or implicitly try to order teams to give the region as a whole the best chance to get at-large bids?

The RACs may try and we have heard conversations in the past that the RAC is doing their best to position teams accordingly to get bids - can't blame them, but the national committee can always change that positioning if they want. The RACs can only do so much. If the national committee disagrees, it is in their prerogative to change it. The RACs only act as advisers, basically.

[Smitty Oom]

Wheaton staying ranked vs falling out is big for NCC since the Cards sweep the Thunder.  If Wheaton loses to Augie tonight, I think Wheaton falls out for sure.

I could be understanding this wrong so please correct me if thats the case, but I think it doesn't it not matter if Wheaton falls out of the ranks since they take into account the last two regional rankings when selecting teams for Pool C?

Not quite once ranked always ranked, but it is the case for the third and fourth regional rankings, I think.

[Titan Q]

Wheaton staying ranked vs falling out is big for NCC since the Cards sweep the Thunder.  If Wheaton loses to Augie tonight, I think Wheaton falls out for sure.

I could be understanding this wrong so please correct me if thats the case, but I think it doesn't it not matter if Wheaton falls out of the ranks since they take into account the last two regional rankings when selecting teams for Pool C?

Not quite once ranked always ranked, but it is the case for the third and fourth regional rankings, I think.

I can't remember the latest...you could be exactly right.   Anyone know? 

If Wheaton is locked in...

* Illinois Wesleyan: .731 (19-7), .547 ish, 3-6

* North Central: .692 (18-8), .546 ish, 4-5

[Titan Q]

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2018DIIIMBB_Pre-Champs_Manual_20180124.pdf

The primary criteria emphasize competition leading up to NCAA championships; all criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed
in priority order).

● Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents.
● Division III strength of schedule.
- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP).
- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).
[See below for explanation of OWP and OOWP calculations.]
● Division III head-to-head competition.
● Results versus common Division III opponents.
● Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the final ranking and the ranking preceding the final ranking.
Post-season contests are included.

[Gregory Sager]

That's my understanding as well. I'm pretty sure that Dave has mentioned it a number of times.

By using this week's regional ranking and the final regional ranking, North Central would go into the selection process with a 4-5 RRO with a win tonight and a loss tomorrow (wins vs. WC, WC again, IWU, and IWU again; losses to Whitworth, AC, IWU, AC again, and the AC/WC winner in the CCIW tourney 'chip) while Illinois Wesleyan would end up with a 3-6 RRO (wins vs. WC, NCC, and AC; losses to Wash U, Emory, AC, WC, NCC, and NCC again).

[Titan Q]

So now I see what the Central committee did with the 3rd regional ranking (I was traveling for work earlier this week and didn't get to look at the rankings much)...

http://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2018/02/men-regional-rankings-third

They threw all 4 of the CCIW teams in there to lock them in as "ranked", knowing the final week would sort things out and 1-2 would fall out of the final ranking....but knowing the teams standing would benefit from those RROs.  Then they can slide whatever teams they want in that final/unpublished ranking based on the final resumes.

Crafty.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Week 2's rankings will not matter once the RACs are done with that data on Sunday. Week 3's will be in place throughout the process. Week 3 and final rankings will be used to retabulate the vRRO for the final selection process (and any tweaking the national committee wants to complete on the Week 4 rankings).

[fantastic50]

Today's bubble games
1:00 - ODAC: #1 Randolph-Macon (18-7, 12-4, needs to win to stay bubble or better) vs #9 Eastern Mennonite (10-14, 5-11)
5:30 - SUNYAC: #6 SUNY Oneonta (13-13, 8-10) vs #2 Brockport (19-6, 14-4, needs a win to stay on bubble)
6:00 - ASC: #E1 LeTourneau (23-3, 16-2, in with a win, bubble if not) vs #E3 East Texas Baptist (20-6, 12-4)
6:00 - CC: #2 Johns Hopkins (21-4, 15-3, safe) vs #3 Franklin and Marshall (20-5, 14-4, probably already in)
6:00 - CCIW: #3 North Central (17-7, 11-5, thin Pool C hopes with a win) vs #2 Illinois Wesleyan (19-6, 12-4, lock with a win, bubble if not)
6:00 - MWC: #3 St. Norbert (19-6, 14-4) vs #2 Ripon (17-6, 14-4, thin Pool C hopes with a win)
7:00 - USAC: #E2 Methodist (17-5, 12-4) at #W1 Maryville (Tenn.) (18-5, 14-2, strong bubble team with a win)
7:30 - LEC: #3 Mass-Boston (15-10, 9-5) vs #2 Keene State (18-8, 11-3, needs a win & help, or the Pool A bid)
7:30 - SUNYAC: Oswego State (14-12, 10-8) at Plattsburgh State (20-4, 17-1, already in decent shape, but a lock with a win)
8:00 - MIAC: #4 Augsburg (19-7, 13-7, must win to reach the bubble) at #1 St. John's (22-2, 19-1, safe)
8:00 - WIAC: #3 UW-Oshkosh (20-6, 9-5) at #2 UW-Stevens Point (17-8, 11-3, decent shape with a win, some hope with a loss)
8:30 - ASC: #E2 Texas-Dallas (19-6, 13-4) at #W1 Sul Ross State (20-4, 14-3, almost a play-in for SRSU tonight)

At the Salem Civic Center, top seed Randolph-Macon falls (56-54) to 9th-seeded Eastern Mennonite, and the ODAC is probably now a one-bid league.

[Greek Tragedy]

Ouch. Seemed like they always got 2 or 3 bids...or is that just me? LOL

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Ouch. Seemed like they always got 2 or 3 bids...or is that just me? LOL

Not in the last few years... top of the conference has fallen back a bit. We may see a resurgence in the next season or two... but one bid has become more the norm the last few seasons - or at least expecting one bid.

[fantastic50]

Among bubble teams...
Brockport loses, 82-77
North Central beats IWU, 67-62
Franklin & Marshall loses, 50-49
Ripon wins, 82-60
LeTourneau loses, 108-101