Pool C

fantastic50 · February 23, 2018, 10:30:02 PM

With nearly all scores in, I am re-running numbers at the moment...

Greek Tragedy · February 23, 2018, 10:34:44 PM

Not that it matters much, except the waiting part, the WIAC Final is on SUNDAY.

Titan Q · February 23, 2018, 10:37:10 PM

Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 23, 2018, 10:29:28 PM
Quote from: Titan Q on February 23, 2018, 10:20:31 PM
Quote from: fantastic50 on February 23, 2018, 10:03:53 PM
With St Olaf and St John's both falling tonight, the MIAC's automatic berth will go to a team that was on the outside looking in. However, Augsburg's win puts the Auggies onto the bubble even with a loss tomorrow, so if Bethel wins the auto bid, then it's possible the MIAC could get four bids, instead of the expected two.

I don't see St. Olaf as a lock. They have the same numbers as IWU (both lost tonight) and certainly IWU is not a lock.

* Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .760 (19-6)/.547/3-5
* St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .760 (19-6)/.536/3-2

St. Olaf is on the bubble as I see it.

... except that Bethel looks like a likely bet to make the final West Region ranking, and St. Olaf went 2-1 against the Royals this season. That puts the Oles at 5-3 vRRO.

I think my point still stands - St. Olaf is not a lock.

Gregory Sager · February 23, 2018, 10:41:11 PM

I'm not taking a position on that. I'm just correcting the vRRO of the Oles.

fantastic50 · February 23, 2018, 11:07:37 PM

I agree with both of you. The only real difference between IWU and St. Olaf is the projected vRRO records, but that's enough to have a huge impact here. St Olaf (19-7, .544, 5-4) is at 97%, while the IWU (19-7, .550, 3-6) is at 33%.

fantastic50 · February 23, 2018, 11:10:20 PM

As of 10pm EST Friday night...

Confirmed Pool A teams
Washington U. (22-2, 13-0 UAA, SOS 0.540, 7-2 vRRO, CE#1)

Locks & near-locks
100% (C#1) Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 6-2 vRRO, NE#1) 22% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 7-3
100% (C#2) Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.584, 7-3 vRRO, NE#2) 18% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.591 / 8-4
100% (A) Augustana (21-5, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.570, 7-3 vRRO, CE#3) 63% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.574 / 7-4
100% (A) Williams (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.587, 6-4 vRRO, NE#4) 30% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.596 / 6-5
100% (A) Whitman (25-0, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.516, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) 81% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.527 / 4-1
100% (C#3) UW-Platteville (20-4, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.577, 4-1 vRRO, CE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
100% (A) Wittenberg (24-2, 16-2 NCAC, SOS 0.527, 5-1 vRRO, GL#1) 76% A, proj. 0.889 / 0.531 / 5-2
100% (C#4) Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.589, 4-6 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A, proj. 5-6 vRRO
100% (A) Eastern Connecticut (23-3, 13-1 LEC, SOS 0.533, 4-1 vRRO, NE#3) 75% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.538 / 4-2
100% (C#5) Wooster (21-6, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.564, 4-3 vRRO, GL#2) 0% A, proj. 4-3 vRRO
100% (C#6) Marietta (21-6, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.563, 4-5 vRRO, GL#4) 0% A, proj. 5-5 vRRO
100% (A) Cabrini (23-3, 16-2 CSAC, SOS 0.534, 2-1 vRRO, AT#1) 71% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.539 / 3-3
100% (C#7) New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.568, 6-4 vRRO, AT#2) 0% A, proj. 7-4 vRRO
100% (A) John Carroll (22-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.540, 6-2 vRRO, GL#3) 73% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.545 / 7-3
100% (C#8) Johns Hopkins (22-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.533, 5-3 vRRO, MA#4) 47% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.544 / 5-4
100% (A) Swarthmore (22-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.534, 3-3 vRRO, MA#5) 53% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.541 / 4-4
100% (C#9) York (Pa.) (22-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.529, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 33% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.539 / 4-3
100% (A) Christopher Newport (21-5, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.539, 3-1 vRRO, MA#2) 67% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.545 / 6-2
99% (C#10) St. John's (22-3, 19-1 MIAC, SOS 0.524, 3-2 vRRO, WE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-2 vRRO
99% (C#11) Emory (20-4, 11-2 UAA, SOS 0.525, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 4-2 vRRO
99% (C#12) Whitworth (23-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.521, 1-3 vRRO, WE#3) 20% A, fin 99% C

Strong contenders
97% (A) Ramapo (20-6, 16-3 NJAC, SOS 0.543, 5-5 vRRO, AT#3) 76% A, fin 97% C
97% (C#13) St. Olaf (19-7, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.544, 3-2 vRRO, WE#4) 0% A, proj. 5-4 vRRO
94% (A) Plattsburgh State (21-4, 17-1 SUNYAC, SOS 0.524, 3-3 vRRO, EA#2) 86% A, fin 94% C
91% (A) Albright (20-5, 12-4 MACC, SOS 0.541, 3-1 vRRO, MA#3) 73% A, fin 91% C

Bubble-in
79% (C#14) Franklin and Marshall (20-6, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.534, 3-4 vRRO, MA#6) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
79% (C#15) UW-Oshkosh (20-7, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.554, 2-4 vRRO, CE#4) 0% A, proj. 4-5 vRRO
78% (A) UW-Stevens Point (18-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.605, 4-6 vRRO, CE#5) 62% A, fin 78% C
78% (A) Maryville (Tenn.) (19-5, 14-2 USAC, SOS 0.531, 2-2 vRRO, SO#6) 62% A, fin 100% C, semi 70% C
61% (C#16) LeTourneau (23-4, 16-2 ASC, SOS 0.510, 2-2 vRRO, SO#4) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
58% (A) Hobart (21-4, 16-2 LL, SOS 0.523, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 69% A, fin 64% C, semi 50% C
57% (A) Springfield (18-7, 12-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.557, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 44% A, fin 82% C, semi 29% C
55% (C#17) Augsburg (20-7, 13-7 MIAC, SOS 0.539, 4-3 vRRO, WE#6) 38% A, fin 55% C

Bubble-out
46% (A) Sul Ross State (20-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.517, 1-1 vRRO, SO#3) 45% A, fin 99% C, semi 17% C
39% (A) Nichols (24-3, 16-2 CCC, SOS 0.515, 0-1 vRRO, NE) 76% A, fin 39% C
37% (C#18) Keene State (19-8, 11-3 LEC, SOS 0.567, 2-5 vRRO, NE#8) 25% A, fin 37% C
33% (C#19) Illinois Wesleyan (19-7, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.550, 3-6 vRRO, CE#6) 0% A, proj. 3-6 vRRO
31% (C#20) Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.565, 4-5 vRRO, NE#7) 30% A, fin 69% C, semi 8% C
29% (C#21) MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.528, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 35% A, fin 56% C, semi 5% C
20% (C#22) North Central (Ill.) (18-7, 11-5 CCIW, SOS 0.555, 4-4 vRRO, CE#7) 37% A, fin 20% C

Fringe contenders
19% (C#23) Salem State (22-4, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.510, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 0% A, proj. 1-2 vRRO
15% (C#24) UW-River Falls (18-8, 7-7 WIAC, SOS 0.587, 3-6 vRRO, CE) 38% A, fin 15% C
15% (A) Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 13-3 IIAC, SOS 0.506, 4-1 vRRO, WE#5) 88% A, fin 15% C
11% (C#25) Loras (19-7, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.542, 2-3 vRRO, WE#7) 0% A, proj. 3-3 vRRO
11% (C#26) Tufts (17-8, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.579, 2-7 vRRO, NE#11) 0% A, proj. 2-7 vRRO
5% (C#27) Randolph-Macon (18-8, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.546, 3-3 vRRO, SO#2) 0% A, proj. 4-4 vRRO

Greek Tragedy · February 23, 2018, 11:25:15 PM

So I'm guessing River Falls, NCC, OWU, ONU and Neumann could all bust bubbles if they win their conference championship games vs Stevens Point, Augustana, Wittenberg, JCU and Cabrini...

mailsy · February 23, 2018, 11:26:22 PM

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 23, 2018, 11:10:20 PM
As of 10pm EST Friday night...

Confirmed Pool A teams
Washington U. (22-2, 13-0 UAA, SOS 0.540, 7-2 vRRO, CE#1)

Locks & near-locks
100% (C#1) Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 6-2 vRRO, NE#1) 22% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 7-3
100% (C#2) Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.584, 7-3 vRRO, NE#2) 18% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.591 / 8-4
100% (A) Augustana (21-5, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.570, 7-3 vRRO, CE#3) 63% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.574 / 7-4
100% (A) Williams (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.587, 6-4 vRRO, NE#4) 30% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.596 / 6-5
100% (A) Whitman (25-0, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.516, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) 81% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.527 / 4-1
100% (C#3) UW-Platteville (20-4, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.577, 4-1 vRRO, CE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
100% (A) Wittenberg (24-2, 16-2 NCAC, SOS 0.527, 5-1 vRRO, GL#1) 76% A, proj. 0.889 / 0.531 / 5-2
100% (C#4) Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.589, 4-6 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A, proj. 5-6 vRRO
100% (A) Eastern Connecticut (23-3, 13-1 LEC, SOS 0.533, 4-1 vRRO, NE#3) 75% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.538 / 4-2
100% (C#5) Wooster (21-6, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.564, 4-3 vRRO, GL#2) 0% A, proj. 4-3 vRRO
100% (C#6) Marietta (21-6, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.563, 4-5 vRRO, GL#4) 0% A, proj. 5-5 vRRO
100% (A) Cabrini (23-3, 16-2 CSAC, SOS 0.534, 2-1 vRRO, AT#1) 71% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.539 / 3-3
100% (C#7) New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.568, 6-4 vRRO, AT#2) 0% A, proj. 7-4 vRRO
100% (A) John Carroll (22-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.540, 6-2 vRRO, GL#3) 73% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.545 / 7-3
100% (C#8) Johns Hopkins (22-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.533, 5-3 vRRO, MA#4) 47% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.544 / 5-4
100% (A) Swarthmore (22-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.534, 3-3 vRRO, MA#5) 53% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.541 / 4-4
100% (C#9) York (Pa.) (22-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.529, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 33% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.539 / 4-3
100% (A) Christopher Newport (21-5, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.539, 3-1 vRRO, MA#2) 67% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.545 / 6-2
99% (C#10) St. John's (22-3, 19-1 MIAC, SOS 0.524, 3-2 vRRO, WE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-2 vRRO
99% (C#11) Emory (20-4, 11-2 UAA, SOS 0.525, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 4-2 vRRO
99% (C#12) Whitworth (23-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.521, 1-3 vRRO, WE#3) 20% A, fin 99% C

Strong contenders
97% (A) Ramapo (20-6, 16-3 NJAC, SOS 0.543, 5-5 vRRO, AT#3) 76% A, fin 97% C
97% (C#13) St. Olaf (19-7, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.544, 3-2 vRRO, WE#4) 0% A, proj. 5-4 vRRO
94% (A) Plattsburgh State (21-4, 17-1 SUNYAC, SOS 0.524, 3-3 vRRO, EA#2) 86% A, fin 94% C
91% (A) Albright (20-5, 12-4 MACC, SOS 0.541, 3-1 vRRO, MA#3) 73% A, fin 91% C

Bubble-in
79% (C#14) Franklin and Marshall (20-6, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.534, 3-4 vRRO, MA#6) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
79% (C#15) UW-Oshkosh (20-7, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.554, 2-4 vRRO, CE#4) 0% A, proj. 4-5 vRRO
78% (A) UW-Stevens Point (18-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.605, 4-6 vRRO, CE#5) 62% A, fin 78% C
78% (A) Maryville (Tenn.) (19-5, 14-2 USAC, SOS 0.531, 2-2 vRRO, SO#6) 62% A, fin 100% C, semi 70% C
61% (C#16) LeTourneau (23-4, 16-2 ASC, SOS 0.510, 2-2 vRRO, SO#4) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
58% (A) Hobart (21-4, 16-2 LL, SOS 0.523, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 69% A, fin 64% C, semi 50% C
57% (A) Springfield (18-7, 12-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.557, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 44% A, fin 82% C, semi 29% C
55% (C#17) Augsburg (20-7, 13-7 MIAC, SOS 0.539, 4-3 vRRO, WE#6) 38% A, fin 55% C

Bubble-out
46% (A) Sul Ross State (20-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.517, 1-1 vRRO, SO#3) 45% A, fin 99% C, semi 17% C
39% (A) Nichols (24-3, 16-2 CCC, SOS 0.515, 0-1 vRRO, NE) 76% A, fin 39% C
37% (C#18) Keene State (19-8, 11-3 LEC, SOS 0.567, 2-5 vRRO, NE#8) 25% A, fin 37% C
33% (C#19) Illinois Wesleyan (19-7, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.550, 3-6 vRRO, CE#6) 0% A, proj. 3-6 vRRO
31% (C#20) Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.565, 4-5 vRRO, NE#7) 30% A, fin 69% C, semi 8% C
29% (C#21) MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.528, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 35% A, fin 56% C, semi 5% C
20% (C#22) North Central (Ill.) (18-7, 11-5 CCIW, SOS 0.555, 4-4 vRRO, CE#7) 37% A, fin 20% C

Fringe contenders
19% (C#23) Salem State (22-4, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.510, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 0% A, proj. 1-2 vRRO
15% (C#24) UW-River Falls (18-8, 7-7 WIAC, SOS 0.587, 3-6 vRRO, CE) 38% A, fin 15% C
15% (A) Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 13-3 IIAC, SOS 0.506, 4-1 vRRO, WE#5) 88% A, fin 15% C
11% (C#25) Loras (19-7, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.542, 2-3 vRRO, WE#7) 0% A, proj. 3-3 vRRO
11% (C#26) Tufts (17-8, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.579, 2-7 vRRO, NE#11) 0% A, proj. 2-7 vRRO
5% (C#27) Randolph-Macon (18-8, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.546, 3-3 vRRO, SO#2) 0% A, proj. 4-4 vRRO

I'm not sure if you're including all Pool A teams, but Staten Island won the CUNYAC tonight.

fantastic50 · February 23, 2018, 11:33:47 PM

Quote from: mailsy on February 23, 2018, 11:26:22 PM
I'm not sure if you're including all Pool A teams, but Staten Island won the CUNYAC tonight.

Thank you. I don't think that score was in yet when I started pulling data, over an hour ago.

Titan Q · February 24, 2018, 12:26:02 AM

Here is how I see things through Saturday. This is just a snapshot as of right now - teams that are still alive can move pretty significantly up and down with every result.

Safely In
1. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .800 (20-5)/.584/7-3 @ Amherst, Sat
2. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .880 (22-3)/.567/8-4 @ Williams, Sat
3. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .792 (19-5)/.587/6-4 vs Hamilton, Sat
4. UW-Platteville (WE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1 done
5. Johns Hopkins (MA/CC): .846 (22-4)/.533/5-3 @ Swarthmore, Sat
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2 done
7. York, Pa (MA/CAC): .846 (22-4)/.529/3-1 @ Christopher Newport, Sat
8. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).589/4-6 done
9. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.564/4-3 done
10. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.563/4-5 done
11. Whitworth (WE/NWC): .884 (23-3)/.521/1-3 @ Whitman, Sat
12. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.568/6-4 done
13. Emory (SO/UAA): .833 (20-4)/.525/3-2 @ Rochester, Sat
14. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4 done
15. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2 done

At the Mercy of Bubble Burster Results
16. North Central (CE/CCIW): .720 (18-7)/.555/4-4 @ Augustana, Sat
17. Augsburg (WE/MIAC): .741 (20-7)/.539/4-3 @ Bethel, Sat
18. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 done
19. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .769 (20-6)/.534/3-4 done
20. UW-River Falls (WE/WIAC): .692 (18-8)/.587/3-6 @ UW-Stevens Point, Sun
21. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .800 (20-5)/.528/2-3 @ Babson, Sat

Out
22. Salem State (NE/MASCAC): .846 (22-4)/.510/1-2 done
23. LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.510/0-1 done
24. Loras (WE/IIAC): .730 (19-7)/.542/2-3 done
25. Keene State (NE/LEC): .703 (19-8)/.567/2-5 @ Eastern Connecticut, Sat
26. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.579/2-7 done
27. Randolph-Macon (SO/ODAC): .692 (18-8)/.546/3-3 done

Smitty Oom · February 24, 2018, 01:27:05 AM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 23, 2018, 11:25:15 PM
So I'm guessing River Falls, NCC, OWU, ONU and Neumann could all bust bubbles if they win their conference championship games vs Stevens Point, Augustana, Wittenberg, JCU and Cabrini...

I would maybe add Keene State in that list. They have a chance with a loss, but Eastern CT definitely has a better chance at a Pool C bid.

Also if Bethel beats Augsburg that would not be great for teams on the bubble, as Augsburg now has a chance to receive a Pool C bid after their big win at SJU Friday.

Greek Tragedy · February 24, 2018, 07:03:59 AM

Oneonta over Plattsburgh St as well.

Titan Q · February 24, 2018, 08:56:23 AM

Here are the games that Pool C bubble teams need to go the right way (listed in order of significance). The bold teams are the bubble fan's friend this weekend...

Bubble Bursters (projected Pool A teams that could steal a Pool C)
* Augustana over NCC in the CCIW final, Saturday 8pm ET

* Wittenberg over Ohio Wesleyan in the NCAC final, Saturday 4pm ET

* Eastern Connecticut over Keene State in the LEC final, Saturday 5pm ET

* Cabrini over Neumann in the CSAC final, Saturday 7pm ET

* John Carroll over Ohio Northern in the OAC final, Saturday 7:30pm ET

* Ramapo over William Paterson in the NJAC final, Saturday 3:00pm ET

* Plattsburgh State over SUNY Oneonta in the SUNYAC final, Saturday 4:00pm ET

* Albright over Lebanon Valley in the Commonwealth final, Saturday 4:00pm ET

* UW-Stevens Point over UW-River Falls, Sunday 3:00pm ET

* Sul Ross State over East Texas Baptist in the ASC final, Saturday 7:00pm ET

Reverse Bubble Burster (projected Pool C teams leaving Pool C)
* Williams, Wesleyan, or Hamilton winning the NESCAC over Amherst, semifinals Saturday 5:30pm & 7:30pm ET

* Augsburg over Bethel in the MIAC final, Sunday 3pm ET

* Babson over MIT in the NEWMAC semis, Saturday 3:30pm ET

Greek Tragedy · February 24, 2018, 09:19:41 AM

Fwiw, I believe whomever loses the WIAC final will be 18-9, .667. In Point's case, if they lose, River Falls will surely jump back into the rankings, adding a 2-1 vRRO for Point.

Titan Q · February 24, 2018, 09:34:22 AM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 24, 2018, 09:19:41 AM
Fwiw, I believe whomever loses the WIAC final will be 18-9, .667. In Point's case, if they lose, River Falls will surely jump back into the rankings, adding a 2-1 vRRO for Point.

Sorry, yes you're right - .667. I added the WIAC game above.