Pool C

[ronk]

As of 10pm EST Friday night...

Confirmed Pool A teams
Washington U. (22-2, 13-0 UAA, SOS 0.540, 7-2 vRRO, CE#1)

Locks & near-locks
100% (C#1) Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 6-2 vRRO, NE#1) 22% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 7-3
100% (C#2) Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.584, 7-3 vRRO, NE#2) 18% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.591 / 8-4
100% (A) Augustana (21-5, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.570, 7-3 vRRO, CE#3) 63% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.574 / 7-4
100% (A) Williams (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.587, 6-4 vRRO, NE#4) 30% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.596 / 6-5
100% (A) Whitman (25-0, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.516, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) 81% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.527 / 4-1
100% (C#3) UW-Platteville (20-4, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.577, 4-1 vRRO, CE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
100% (A) Wittenberg (24-2, 16-2 NCAC, SOS 0.527, 5-1 vRRO, GL#1) 76% A, proj. 0.889 / 0.531 / 5-2
100% (C#4) Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.589, 4-6 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A, proj. 5-6 vRRO
100% (A) Eastern Connecticut (23-3, 13-1 LEC, SOS 0.533, 4-1 vRRO, NE#3) 75% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.538 / 4-2
100% (C#5) Wooster (21-6, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.564, 4-3 vRRO, GL#2) 0% A, proj. 4-3 vRRO
100% (C#6) Marietta (21-6, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.563, 4-5 vRRO, GL#4) 0% A, proj. 5-5 vRRO
100% (A) Cabrini (23-3, 16-2 CSAC, SOS 0.534, 2-1 vRRO, AT#1) 71% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.539 / 3-3
100% (C#7) New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.568, 6-4 vRRO, AT#2) 0% A, proj. 7-4 vRRO
100% (A) John Carroll (22-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.540, 6-2 vRRO, GL#3) 73% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.545 / 7-3
100% (C#8) Johns Hopkins (22-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.533, 5-3 vRRO, MA#4) 47% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.544 / 5-4
100% (A) Swarthmore (22-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.534, 3-3 vRRO, MA#5) 53% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.541 / 4-4
100% (C#9) York (Pa.) (22-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.529, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 33% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.539 / 4-3
100% (A) Christopher Newport (21-5, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.539, 3-1 vRRO, MA#2) 67% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.545 / 6-2
99% (C#10) St. John's (22-3, 19-1 MIAC, SOS 0.524, 3-2 vRRO, WE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-2 vRRO
99% (C#11) Emory (20-4, 11-2 UAA, SOS 0.525, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 4-2 vRRO
99% (C#12) Whitworth (23-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.521, 1-3 vRRO, WE#3) 20% A, fin 99% C

Strong contenders
97% (A) Ramapo (20-6, 16-3 NJAC, SOS 0.543, 5-5 vRRO, AT#3) 76% A, fin 97% C
97% (C#13) St. Olaf (19-7, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.544, 3-2 vRRO, WE#4) 0% A, proj. 5-4 vRRO
94% (A) Plattsburgh State (21-4, 17-1 SUNYAC, SOS 0.524, 3-3 vRRO, EA#2) 86% A, fin 94% C
91% (A) Albright (20-5, 12-4 MACC, SOS 0.541, 3-1 vRRO, MA#3) 73% A, fin 91% C

Bubble-in
79% (C#14) Franklin and Marshall (20-6, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.534, 3-4 vRRO, MA#6) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
79% (C#15) UW-Oshkosh (20-7, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.554, 2-4 vRRO, CE#4) 0% A, proj. 4-5 vRRO
78% (A) UW-Stevens Point (18-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.605, 4-6 vRRO, CE#5) 62% A, fin 78% C
78% (A) Maryville (Tenn.) (19-5, 14-2 USAC, SOS 0.531, 2-2 vRRO, SO#6) 62% A, fin 100% C, semi 70% C
61% (C#16) LeTourneau (23-4, 16-2 ASC, SOS 0.510, 2-2 vRRO, SO#4) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
58% (A) Hobart (21-4, 16-2 LL, SOS 0.523, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 69% A, fin 64% C, semi 50% C
57% (A) Springfield (18-7, 12-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.557, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 44% A, fin 82% C, semi 29% C
55% (C#17) Augsburg (20-7, 13-7 MIAC, SOS 0.539, 4-3 vRRO, WE#6) 38% A, fin 55% C

Bubble-out
46% (A) Sul Ross State (20-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.517, 1-1 vRRO, SO#3) 45% A, fin 99% C, semi 17% C
39% (A) Nichols (24-3, 16-2 CCC, SOS 0.515, 0-1 vRRO, NE) 76% A, fin 39% C
37% (C#18) Keene State (19-8, 11-3 LEC, SOS 0.567, 2-5 vRRO, NE#8) 25% A, fin 37% C
33% (C#19) Illinois Wesleyan (19-7, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.550, 3-6 vRRO, CE#6) 0% A, proj. 3-6 vRRO
31% (C#20) Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.565, 4-5 vRRO, NE#7) 30% A, fin 69% C, semi 8% C
29% (C#21) MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.528, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 35% A, fin 56% C, semi 5% C
20% (C#22) North Central (Ill.) (18-7, 11-5 CCIW, SOS 0.555, 4-4 vRRO, CE#7) 37% A, fin 20% C

Fringe contenders
19% (C#23) Salem State (22-4, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.510, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 0% A, proj. 1-2 vRRO
15% (C#24) UW-River Falls (18-8, 7-7 WIAC, SOS 0.587, 3-6 vRRO, CE) 38% A, fin 15% C
15% (A) Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 13-3 IIAC, SOS 0.506, 4-1 vRRO, WE#5) 88% A, fin 15% C
11% (C#25) Loras (19-7, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.542, 2-3 vRRO, WE#7) 0% A, proj. 3-3 vRRO
11% (C#26) Tufts (17-8, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.579, 2-7 vRRO, NE#11) 0% A, proj. 2-7 vRRO
5% (C#27) Randolph-Macon (18-8, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.546, 3-3 vRRO, SO#2) 0% A, proj. 4-4 vRRO

Fantastic50,
  Would you please do this same stat run for the women, if it's not too much to ask? I'd appreciate it.

[Smitty Oom]

Here are the games that Pool C bubble teams need to go the right way (listed in order of significance).  The bold teams are the bubble fan's friend this weekend...

Bubble Bursters (projected Pool A teams that could steal a Pool C)
* Augustana over NCC in the CCIW final, Saturday 8pm ET

* Wittenberg over Ohio Wesleyan in the NCAC final, Saturday 4pm ET

* Eastern Connecticut over Keene State in the LEC final, Saturday 5pm ET

* Cabrini over Neumann in the CSAC final, Saturday 7pm ET

* John Carroll over Ohio Northern in the OAC final, Saturday 7:30pm ET

* Ramapo over William Paterson in the NJAC final, Saturday 3:00pm ET

* Plattsburgh State over SUNY Oneonta in the SUNYAC final, Saturday 4:00pm ET

* Albright over Lebanon Valley in the Commonwealth final, Saturday 4:00pm ET

* UW-Stevens Point over UW-River Falls, Sunday 3:00pm ET

* Maryville (TN) over Covenant in the USAC final, Saturday 6:00pm ET

* Hobart over Skidmore in the Liberty semis, Saturday 2:00pm ET


Reverse Bubble Burster (projected Pool C teams leaving Pool C)
* Williams, Wesleyan, or Hamilton winning the NESCAC over Amherst, semifinals Saturday 5:30pm & 7:30pm ET

* Augsburg over Bethel in the MIAC final, Sunday 3pm ET

* Babson over MIT in the NEWMAC semis, Saturday 3:30pm ET

I will add Sul Ross State to the list, as Drew has them at 99% if pool C now, and I dont think any other ASC team is in consideration.

Also, is Babson wouldnt be a Reverse Pool C team would they, MIT might be though. However they could also be out of it with a loss so I dont know how that one should go.

[fantastic50]

Here's my latest.  I think that the bid-thief list lines up with what TitanQ posted earlier.

Confirmed Pool A teams
Staten Island (17-10, 12-4 CUNYAC, SOS 0.498, 1-5 vRRO, AT)
Washington U. (22-2, 13-0 UAA, SOS 0.540, 7-2 vRRO, CE#1)

Locks & near-locks
100% (C#1) Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 6-2 vRRO, NE#1) 22% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 7-3
100% (C#2) Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.584, 7-3 vRRO, NE#2) 17% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.591 / 8-4
100% (A) Augustana (21-5, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.570, 7-3 vRRO, CE#3) 62% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.574 / 7-4
100% (C#3) Williams (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.587, 6-4 vRRO, NE#4) 30% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.596 / 6-5
100% (A) Whitman (25-0, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.516, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) 82% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.526 / 4-1
100% (C#4) UW-Platteville (20-4, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.577, 4-1 vRRO, CE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
100% (A) Wittenberg (24-2, 16-2 NCAC, SOS 0.527, 5-1 vRRO, GL#1) 76% A, proj. 0.889 / 0.531 / 5-2
100% (C#5) Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.589, 4-6 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A, proj. 5-6 vRRO
100% (A) Eastern Connecticut (23-3, 13-1 LEC, SOS 0.533, 4-1 vRRO, NE#3) 75% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.538 / 4-2
100% (C#6) Wooster (21-6, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.564, 4-3 vRRO, GL#2) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
100% (C#7) Marietta (21-6, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.563, 4-5 vRRO, GL#4) 0% A, proj. 5-5 vRRO
100% (A) Cabrini (23-3, 16-2 CSAC, SOS 0.534, 2-1 vRRO, AT#1) 71% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.539 / 3-3
100% (C#8) New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.568, 6-4 vRRO, AT#2) 0% A, proj. 7-4 vRRO
100% (A) John Carroll (22-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.540, 6-2 vRRO, GL#3) 73% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.545 / 7-3
100% (C#9) Johns Hopkins (22-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.533, 5-3 vRRO, MA#4) 48% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.544 / 5-4
100% (A) Swarthmore (22-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.534, 3-3 vRRO, MA#5) 52% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.541 / 4-4
100% (C#10) York (Pa.) (22-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.529, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 32% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.539 / 4-3
100% (A) Christopher Newport (21-5, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.539, 3-1 vRRO, MA#2) 68% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.545 / 6-2
99% (C#11) St. John's (22-3, 19-1 MIAC, SOS 0.524, 3-2 vRRO, WE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-2 vRRO
99% (C#12) Emory (20-4, 11-2 UAA, SOS 0.525, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 4-2 vRRO
99% (C#13) Whitworth (23-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.521, 1-3 vRRO, WE#3) 18% A, fin 99% C
99% (A) Sul Ross State (21-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.522, 2-1 vRRO, SO#3) 71% A, fin 99% C

Strong contenders
98% (A) Ramapo (20-6, 16-3 NJAC, SOS 0.543, 5-5 vRRO, AT#3) 75% A, fin 98% C
97% (C#14) St. Olaf (19-7, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.544, 3-2 vRRO, WE#4) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
96% (A) Plattsburgh State (21-4, 17-1 SUNYAC, SOS 0.523, 3-3 vRRO, EA#2) 87% A, fin 96% C
91% (A) Albright (20-5, 12-4 MACC, SOS 0.541, 3-1 vRRO, MA#3) 71% A, fin 91% C
81% (A) UW-Stevens Point (18-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.605, 4-6 vRRO, CE#5) 63% A, fin 81% C

Bubble-in
79% (C#15) UW-Oshkosh (20-7, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.555, 2-4 vRRO, CE#4) 0% A, proj. 4-5 vRRO
77% (C#16) Franklin and Marshall (20-6, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.535, 3-4 vRRO, MA#6) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
69% (A) Maryville (Tenn.) (19-5, 14-2 USAC, SOS 0.531, 2-2 vRRO, SO#6) 71% A, fin 69% C
60% (A) Springfield (18-7, 12-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.557, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 44% A, fin 83% C, semi 32% C
59% (A) Hobart (21-4, 16-2 LL, SOS 0.523, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 67% A, fin 67% C, semi 46% C
59% (C#17) LeTourneau (23-4, 16-2 ASC, SOS 0.510, 2-2 vRRO, SO#4) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
57% (C#18) Augsburg (20-7, 13-7 MIAC, SOS 0.539, 4-3 vRRO, WE#6) 38% A, fin 57% C

Bubble-out
37% (C#19) Keene State (19-8, 11-3 LEC, SOS 0.567, 2-5 vRRO, NE#8) 25% A, fin 37% C
35% (A) Nichols (24-3, 16-2 CCC, SOS 0.515, 0-1 vRRO, NE) 76% A, fin 35% C
34% (C#20) Illinois Wesleyan (19-7, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.550, 3-6 vRRO, CE#6) 0% A, proj. 3-6 vRRO
31% (A) Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.565, 4-5 vRRO, NE#7) 31% A, fin 69% C, semi 7% C
31% (C#21) MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.528, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 35% A, fin 58% C, semi 7% C
20% (C#22) Salem State (22-4, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.510, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 0% A, proj. 1-2 vRRO

Fringe contenders
16% (C#23) North Central (Ill.) (18-7, 11-5 CCIW, SOS 0.555, 4-4 vRRO, CE#7) 38% A, fin 16% C
15% (A) Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 13-3 IIAC, SOS 0.506, 4-1 vRRO, WE#5) 88% A, fin 15% C
14% (C#24) UW-River Falls (18-8, 7-7 WIAC, SOS 0.587, 3-6 vRRO, CE) 37% A, fin 14% C
13% (C#25) Tufts (17-8, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.581, 2-7 vRRO, NE#11) 0% A, proj. 2-7 vRRO
12% (C#26) Loras (19-7, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.542, 2-3 vRRO, WE#7) 0% A, proj. 3-3 vRRO
6% (C#27) Randolph-Macon (18-8, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.546, 3-3 vRRO, SO#2) 0% A, proj. 4-4 vRRO

Longshots
2% (C#28) East Texas Baptist (21-6, 12-4 ASC, SOS 0.529, 2-5 vRRO, SO) 29% A, fin 2% C

Upcoming potential bid thief games (2.48 expected bubbles burst)
CSAC: #1 Cabrini (100% C) vs #3 Neumann (0% C)
NCAC: #1 Wittenberg (100% C) vs #3 Ohio Wesleyan (0% C)
OAC: #1 John Carroll (100% C) vs #3 Ohio Northern (0% C)
NJAC: #1 Ramapo (98% C) vs #6 William Paterson (0% C)
ASC: #1 Sul Ross State (99% C) vs #6 East Texas Baptist (2% C)
SUNYAC: #1 Plattsburgh State (96% C) vs #6 SUNY Oneonta (0% C)
MACC: #1 Albright (91% C) vs #2 Lebanon Valley (0% C)
CCIW: #1 Augustana (100% C) vs #3 North Central (Ill.) (16% C)
WIAC: #2 UW-Stevens Point (81% C) vs #4 UW-River Falls (14% C)
LEC: #1 Eastern Connecticut (100% C) vs #2 Keene State (37% C)
NEWMAC: #1 Springfield (60% C) vs #4 WPI (0% C)

[fantastic50]

Fantastic50,
  Would you please do this same stat run for the women, if it's not too much to ask? I'd appreciate it.

I would like to do that, but first need to build a good model for what the women's committee finds important, based on the last several years of Pool C selections.  That may well be different than on the men's side, even though the written criteria are the same.  Maybe next year...

[Titan Q]

Here are the games that Pool C bubble teams need to go the right way (listed in order of significance).  The bold teams are the bubble fan's friend this weekend...

Bubble Bursters (projected Pool A teams that could steal a Pool C)
* Augustana over NCC in the CCIW final, Saturday 8pm ET

* Wittenberg over Ohio Wesleyan in the NCAC final, Saturday 4pm ET

* Eastern Connecticut over Keene State in the LEC final, Saturday 5pm ET

* Cabrini over Neumann in the CSAC final, Saturday 7pm ET

* John Carroll over Ohio Northern in the OAC final, Saturday 7:30pm ET

* Ramapo over William Paterson in the NJAC final, Saturday 3:00pm ET

* Plattsburgh State over SUNY Oneonta in the SUNYAC final, Saturday 4:00pm ET

* Albright over Lebanon Valley in the Commonwealth final, Saturday 4:00pm ET

* UW-Stevens Point over UW-River Falls, Sunday 3:00pm ET

* Maryville (TN) over Covenant in the USAC final, Saturday 6:00pm ET

* Hobart over Skidmore in the Liberty semis, Saturday 2:00pm ET


Reverse Bubble Burster (projected Pool C teams leaving Pool C)
* Williams, Wesleyan, or Hamilton winning the NESCAC over Amherst, semifinals Saturday 5:30pm & 7:30pm ET

* Augsburg over Bethel in the MIAC final, Sunday 3pm ET

* Babson over MIT in the NEWMAC semis, Saturday 3:30pm ET

I will add Sul Ross State to the list, as Drew has them at 99% if pool C now, and I dont think any other ASC team is in consideration.

Also, is Babson wouldnt be a Reverse Pool C team would they, MIT might be though. However they could also be out of it with a loss so I dont know how that one should go.

Agree I should add Sul Ross State.

With Babson/MIT, what I mean is that with a loss in the NEWMAC semis, I have MIT out of the Pool C top 21.

[fantastic50]

Here are the latest projected numbers of total bids by conference. Those not listed will get only one bid.

NESCAC 4.65 (Amherst 31%)
MIAC 3.32 (Bethel 62%)
WIAC 3.17 (UW-Stevens Point 63%)
CC 2.77 (Swarthmore 52%)
OAC 2.27 (John Carroll 73%)
NJAC 2.24 (Ramapo 75%)
NCAC 2.24 (Wittenberg 76%)
CAC 2.00 (Christopher Newport 68%)
NWC 2.00 (Whitman 82%)
UAA 2.00 (Washington U. 100%)
ASC 1.89 (Sul Ross State 71%)
CCIW 1.82 (Augustana 62%)
NEWMAC 1.54 (Springfield 44%)
LEC 1.52 (Eastern Connecticut 75%)
CSAC 1.30 (Cabrini 71%)
MACC 1.26 (Albright 71%)
MASCAC 1.20 (Bridgewater State 63%)
USAC 1.20 (Maryville (Tenn.) 71%)
LL 1.19 (Hobart 67%)
IIAC 1.14 (Nebraska Wesleyan 88%)
SUNYAC 1.14 (Plattsburgh State 87%)
CCC 1.08 (Nichols 76%)
ODAC 1.06 (Roanoke 52%)

Expected Pool C berths, by region
Northeast 4.99
East 0.33
Atlantic 1.54
Mid-Atlantic 3.03
South 2.15
Great Lakes 2.51
Central 2.99
West 3.46

[Titan Q]

Here is where I am heading into today's games.

Projected In...

Safely In
1. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .800 (20-5)/.584/7-3   @ Amherst, Sat
2. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .880 (22-3)/.567/8-4  @ Williams, Sat
3. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .792 (19-5)/.587/6-4   vs Hamilton, Sat
4. UW-Platteville (WE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1   done
5. Johns Hopkins (MA/CC): .846 (22-4)/.533/5-3   @ Swarthmore, Sat
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2  done
7. York, Pa (MA/CAC): .846 (22-4)/.529/3-1   @ Christopher Newport, Sat
8. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).589/4-6   done
9. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.564/4-3  done
10. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.563/4-5   done
11. Whitworth (WE/NWC): .884 (23-3)/.521/1-3   @ Whitman, Sat
12. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.568/6-4   done
13. Emory (SO/UAA): .833 (20-4)/.525/3-2  @ Rochester, Sat
14. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4   done

At the Mercy of Bubble Burster Results
15. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   done
16. North Central (CE/CCIW): .720 (18-7)/.555/4-4   @ Augustana, Sat
17. Augsburg (WE/MIAC): .741 (20-7)/.539/4-3   @ Bethel, Sat
18. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6   done
19. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .769 (20-6)/.534/3-4   done
20. UW-River Falls (WE/WIAC): .692 (18-8)/.587/3-6   @ UW-Stevens Point, Sun
21. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .800 (20-5)/.528/2-3  @ Babson, Sat

In the Conversation but Out...

22. Salem State (NE/MASCAC): .846 (22-4)/.510/1-2   done
23. LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.510/0-1   done
24. Loras (WE/IIAC): .730 (19-7)/.542/2-3  done
25. Keene State (NE/LEC): .703 (19-8)/.567/2-5  @ Eastern Connecticut, Sat
26. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.579/2-7   done
27. Randolph-Macon (SO/ODAC): .692 (18-8)/.546/3-3   done
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bubble Burster Games (projected Pool A teams that could steal a Pool C)...

* Augustana vs NCC in the CCIW final, Saturday 8:00pm ET
* Wittenberg vs Ohio Wesleyan in the NCAC final, Saturday 4:00pm ET
* Eastern Connecticut vs Keene State in the LEC final, Saturday 5:00pm ET
* Cabrini vs Neumann in the CSAC final, Saturday 7:00pm ET
* John Carroll vs Ohio Northern in the OAC final, Saturday 7:30pm ET
* Ramapo vs William Paterson in the NJAC final, Saturday 3:00pm ET
* Plattsburgh State vs SUNY Oneonta in the SUNYAC final, Saturday 4:00pm ET
* Albright vs Lebanon Valley in the Commonwealth final, Saturday 4:00pm ET
* UW-Stevens Point vs UW-River Falls, Sunday 3:00pm ET
* Sul Ross State vs East Texas Baptist in the ASC final, Saturday 7:00pm ET
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reverse Bubble Burster Games (projected Pool C teams that could leave Pool C)...

* Williams, Wesleyan, or Hamilton winning the NESCAC over Amherst, semifinals Saturday 5:30pm & 7:30pm ET
* Augsburg at Bethel in the MIAC final, Sunday 3:00pm ET  (Augsburg Pool A with a win; Bethel not in the Pool C top 21)
* MIT vs Babson in the NEWMAC semis, Saturday 3:30pm ET  (MIT out with a loss in the semis)

[Titan Q]

NEWMAC semis final...

WPI 84
Springfield 80

I did not have this as a bubble burster.  I think Springfield just bursted its own bubble.

* Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.557/4-2

Very competitive at the end of the bubble, but I think too many other overall resumes that are better.

[fantastic50]

Here's the updated list of today's bubble-relevant games...

Today's potential bubble-bursters
1:00 - NEWMAC semis: #1 Springfield (60% C) vs #4 WPI (0% C) (Springfield falls, 84-80)
3:00 - NJAC final: #1 Ramapo (98% C) vs #6 William Paterson (0% C) (Ramapo wins the AQ, 67-59)
4:00 - NCAC final: #1 Wittenberg (100% C) vs #3 Ohio Wesleyan (0% C) (Witt wins, 82-70)
4:00 - SUNYAC final: #1 Plattsburgh State (96% C) vs #6 SUNY Oneonta (0% C)
4:00 - MACC final: #1 Albright (91% C) vs #2 Lebanon Valley (0% C)
5:00 - LEC final: #1 Eastern Connecticut (100% C) vs #2 Keene State (37% C)
7:00 - ASC final: #1 Sul Ross State (99% C) vs #6 East Texas Baptist (2% C)
7:00 - CSAC final: #1 Cabrini (100% C) vs #3 Neumann (0% C)
7:30 - OAC final: #1 John Carroll (100% C) vs #3 Ohio Northern (0% C)
8:00 - CCIW final: #1 Augustana (100% C) vs #3 North Central (Ill.) (16% C)

Today's games involving bubble teams
1:00 - CCC final - #3 Endicott (19-8, 12-6) at #1 Nichols (24-3, 16-2, bubble-out) (Nichols wins the Pool A berth, 98-89)
2:00 - LL semis: #5 Skidmore (15-10, 10-8) at #1 Hobart (21-4, 16-2, on the bubble) (Hobart loses, 63-60, and will stay on the bubble)
3:30 - NEWMAC semis: #3 MIT (20-5, 10-4, almost must-win) vs #2 Babson (15-10, 10-4) (MIT wins 70-61 to move up to the bubble)
5:00 - LEC final: #2 Keene State (19-8, 11-3, bubble-out) at #1 Eastern Connecticut (23-3, 13-1, safe)
5:30 - NESCAC semis: #4 Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3, safe) at #1 Amherst (17-7, 7-3, almost must-win)
6:00 - USAC final: #W3 Covenant (15-9, 10-6) at #W1 Maryville (Tenn.) (19-5, 14-2, bubble-in with a loss)
8:00 - IIAC final: #6 Central (11-15, 7-9) at #1 Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 13-3, likely needs a win)

[Smitty Oom]

With Babson/MIT, what I mean is that with a loss in the NEWMAC semis, I have MIT out of the Pool C top 21.

Yup I get it now. I didn't think about leaving pool C in terms of not having a good enough resume, only in terms of winning the AQ. Makes sense and I agree.

[Titan Q]

I did not have Hobart/Skidmore as a bubble burster game - I considered it but felt like Hobart would burst their own bubble with a loss.

*Hobart (East/LL): .808 (21-5)/.523/1-2

I just don't think enough good stuff with the SOS and RRO there.  I think Hobart is out.

[Titan Q]

CAC championship final...

York (Pa) 82
Christopher Newport 73

Just a Pool A/C swap here.  York (considered a Pool C lock) leaves Pool C, Christopher Newport enters (as a lock).

[Gregory Sager]

Ramapo defeated Willie Pat, 67-59, to take the NJAC tourney title.

[fantastic50]

This next hour could burst multiple bubbles...
Plattsburgh St 42, SUNY-Oneonta 39 (half)
Albright 30, Lebanon Valley 30 (early 2nd)
Wittenberg 35, Ohio Wesleyan 35 (half)
MIT 65, Babson 61 (late 2nd)

[Gregory Sager]

MIT defeats Babson, 70-61, and keeps its Pool C hopes intact as it heads into tomorrow's NEWMAC title game against WPI. On the other side of that result, Babson's reign as D3 champion is now unofficially doomed.