Pool C

[Gregory Sager]

The NCAC goes chalk, as Wittenberg takes the Pool A berth with an 82-70 win over Ohio Wesleyan.

[Titan Q]

MIT defeats Babson, 70-61, and keeps its Pool C hopes intact as it heads into tomorrow's NEWMAC title game against WPI. On the other side of that result, Babson's reign as D3 champion is now unofficially doomed.

MIT getting the Pool A bid would be big for the bubble.

[Greek Tragedy]

Hobart, the #1 team in the East went down to Skidmore.

[Titan Q]

Lebanon Valley 70
Albright 68

That is a bubble burster.

*Albright (MA/Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.541/3-2

Albright probably slots in about #16 or so.

[Titan Q]

Hobart, the #1 team in the East went down to Skidmore.

Per above, probably not a Pool C factor.

[fantastic50]

Re-posting list of bubble-relevant games forward to this page, just as Albright falls to Lebanon Valley, bursting a bubble.

Today's potential bubble-bursters
1:00 - NEWMAC semis: #1 Springfield (60% C) vs #4 WPI (0% C) (Springfield falls, 84-80)
3:00 - NJAC final: #1 Ramapo (98% C) vs #6 William Paterson (0% C) (Ramapo wins the AQ, 67-59)
4:00 - NCAC final: #1 Wittenberg (100% C) vs #3 Ohio Wesleyan (0% C) (Witt wins, 82-70)
4:00 - SUNYAC final: #1 Plattsburgh State (96% C) vs #6 SUNY Oneonta (0% C)
4:00 - MACC final: #1 Albright (91% C) vs #2 Lebanon Valley (0% C) (LV wins 70-68 on a late three.)
5:00 - LEC final: #1 Eastern Connecticut (100% C) vs #2 Keene State (37% C)
7:00 - ASC final: #1 Sul Ross State (99% C) vs #6 East Texas Baptist (2% C)
7:00 - CSAC final: #1 Cabrini (100% C) vs #3 Neumann (0% C)
7:30 - OAC final: #1 John Carroll (100% C) vs #3 Ohio Northern (0% C)
8:00 - CCIW final: #1 Augustana (100% C) vs #3 North Central (Ill.) (16% C)

Today's games involving bubble teams
1:00 - CCC final - #3 Endicott (19-8, 12-6) at #1 Nichols (24-3, 16-2, bubble-out) (Nichols wins the Pool A berth, 98-89)
2:00 - LL semis: #5 Skidmore (15-10, 10-8) at #1 Hobart (21-4, 16-2, on the bubble) (Hobart loses, 63-60, and will stay on the bubble)
3:30 - NEWMAC semis: #3 MIT (20-5, 10-4, almost must-win) vs #2 Babson (15-10, 10-4) (MIT wins 70-61 to move up to the bubble)
5:30 - NESCAC semis: #4 Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3, safe) at #1 Amherst (17-7, 7-3, almost must-win)
6:00 - USAC final: #W3 Covenant (15-9, 10-6) at #W1 Maryville (Tenn.) (19-5, 14-2, bubble-in with a loss)
8:00 - IIAC final: #6 Central (11-15, 7-9) at #1 Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 13-3, likely needs a win)

[Gregory Sager]

SUNY Plattsburgh pulls away late in the North Country and wins the SUNYAC title at home over SUNY Oneonta.

[Greek Tragedy]

Hobart, the #1 team in the East went down to Skidmore.

Per above, probably not a Pool C factor.

Ok, missed that/forgot about that post. So, obviously no Pool C teams from the East then.

[Titan Q]

Plattsburgh State 93
SUNY Oneonta 80

Good bubble result.

[fantastic50]

Here are the new numbers hot off the presses...er CPU.  I'm expecting all but 9 of the teams below to get in, via Pools A or C.

Locks & near-locks
100% (C#1) Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.568, 6-2 vRRO, NE#1) 22% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.575 / 7-3
100% (C#2) Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.584, 7-3 vRRO, NE#2) 18% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.591 / 8-4
100% (A) Augustana (21-5, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.569, 7-3 vRRO, CE#3) 63% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.573 / 7-4
100% (C#3) Williams (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.586, 6-4 vRRO, NE#4) 29% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.595 / 6-5
100% (A) Whitman (25-0, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.515, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) 81% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.526 / 4-1
100% (C#4) UW-Platteville (20-4, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.576, 4-1 vRRO, CE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
100% (C#5) Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.590, 4-6 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A, proj. 4-6 vRRO
100% (A) Eastern Connecticut (23-3, 13-1 LEC, SOS 0.535, 4-1 vRRO, NE#3) 75% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.540 / 4-2
100% (C#6) Marietta (21-6, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.565, 4-5 vRRO, GL#4) 0% A, proj. 6-5 vRRO
100% (C#7) Wooster (21-6, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.565, 4-3 vRRO, GL#2) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
100% (A) Cabrini (23-3, 16-2 CSAC, SOS 0.534, 2-1 vRRO, AT#1) 71% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.539 / 3-3
100% (A) John Carroll (22-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.541, 6-2 vRRO, GL#3) 73% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.545 / 7-3
100% (C#8) New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.566, 6-4 vRRO, AT#2) 0% A, proj. 6-4 vRRO
100% (C#9) Johns Hopkins (22-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.532, 5-3 vRRO, MA#4) 47% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.543 / 5-4
100% (A) Swarthmore (22-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.535, 3-3 vRRO, MA#5) 53% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.542 / 3-4
100% (C#10) Christopher Newport (21-6, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.545, 3-2 vRRO, MA#2) 0% A, proj. 3-2 vRRO
99% (C#11) St. John's (22-3, 19-1 MIAC, SOS 0.524, 3-2 vRRO, WE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-2 vRRO
99% (C#12) Emory (21-4, 12-2 UAA, SOS 0.531, 4-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 4-2 vRRO
99% (C#13) Whitworth (23-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.521, 1-3 vRRO, WE#3) 19% A, fin 99% C
99% (A) Sul Ross State (21-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.522, 2-1 vRRO, SO#3) 70% A, fin 99% C

Strong contenders
97% (C#14) St. Olaf (19-7, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.544, 3-2 vRRO, WE#4) 0% A, proj. 5-4 vRRO
94% (C#15) Albright (20-6, 12-4 MACC, SOS 0.544, 3-2 vRRO, MA#3) 0% A, proj. 3-2 vRRO
84% (C#16) Franklin and Marshall (20-6, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.535, 3-4 vRRO, MA#6) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO

Bubble-in
78% (A) UW-Stevens Point (18-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.605, 4-6 vRRO, CE#5) 61% A, fin 78% C
75% (C#17) UW-Oshkosh (20-7, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.554, 2-4 vRRO, CE#4) 0% A, proj. 4-5 vRRO
72% (A) Maryville (Tenn.) (19-5, 14-2 USAC, SOS 0.532, 2-2 vRRO, SO#6) 73% A, fin 72% C
67% (C#18) LeTourneau (23-4, 16-2 ASC, SOS 0.511, 2-2 vRRO, SO#4) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
56% (C#19) Augsburg (20-7, 13-7 MIAC, SOS 0.539, 4-3 vRRO, WE#6) 38% A, fin 56% C

Bubble-out
44% (C#20) Illinois Wesleyan (19-7, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.551, 3-6 vRRO, CE#6) 0% A, proj. 3-6 vRRO
30% (C#21) Keene State (19-8, 11-3 LEC, SOS 0.566, 2-5 vRRO, NE#8) 25% A, fin 30% C
28% (A) Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.564, 4-5 vRRO, NE#7) 31% A, fin 68% C, semi 5% C
26% (C#22) Salem State (22-4, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.511, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 0% A, proj. 1-2 vRRO
25% (C#23) Springfield (18-8, 12-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.558, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 0% A, proj. 4-2 vRRO
24% (A) MIT (21-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.531, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 77% A, fin 24% C

Fringe contenders
18% (A) Hobart (21-5, 16-2 LL, SOS 0.526, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 64% A, fin 21% C, semi 14% C
16% (C#24) North Central (Ill.) (18-7, 11-5 CCIW, SOS 0.555, 4-4 vRRO, CE#7) 37% A, fin 16% C
16% (C#25) Loras (19-7, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.542, 2-3 vRRO, WE#7) 0% A, proj. 3-3 vRRO
15% (A) Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 13-3 IIAC, SOS 0.506, 4-1 vRRO, WE#5) 88% A, fin 15% C
14% (C#26) UW-River Falls (18-8, 7-7 WIAC, SOS 0.587, 3-6 vRRO, CE) 39% A, fin 14% C
14% (C#27) Tufts (17-8, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.581, 2-7 vRRO, NE#11) 0% A, proj. 2-7 vRRO

Longshots
3% (C#28) Randolph-Macon (18-8, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.546, 3-3 vRRO, SO#2) 0% A, proj. 4-3 vRRO
2% (C#29) East Texas Baptist (21-6, 12-4 ASC, SOS 0.529, 2-5 vRRO, SO) 30% A, fin 2% C

Potential bid thief games today (1.48 expected additional bubbles burst)
LEC: #1 Eastern Connecticut (100% C) vs #2 Keene State (30% C)
CSAC: #1 Cabrini (100% C) vs #3 Neumann (0% C)
OAC: #1 John Carroll (100% C) vs #3 Ohio Northern (0% C)
ASC: #1 Sul Ross State (99% C) vs #6 East Texas Baptist (2% C)
CCIW: #1 Augustana (100% C) vs #3 North Central (Ill.) (16% C)

Other bubble games today
Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC) at Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC)
Covenant (15-9, 10-6 USAC) at Maryville (Tenn.) (19-5, 14-2 USAC)
Central (11-15, 7-9 IIAC) at Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 13-3 IIAC)

[Gregory Sager]

The Little East chip goes to the favored Warriors of Eastern Connecticut, who defeated Keene State, 79-62.

[Titan Q]

Wesleyan 65
Amherst 63

Reverse bubble burster...huge for the bubble.

This was a tremendous game...wow.

[Gregory Sager]

Wesleyan ends the season of Amherst in an absolutely crazy finish, 65-63.

[Titan Q]

Wesleyan ends the season of Amherst in an absolutely crazy finish, 65-63.

Were you watching that? Unbelievable.

[Gregory Sager]

I can't even imagine what would've happened to LeFrak Gym if that final heave by the Mammoths had gone in rather than drawing rim.